Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, TEN at IND ($6.6K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Exposure to Ryan Tannehill has only profited over value in four-of-seven games. He’s only exceeded 20 FPs twice. So, it’s not much of a surprise to see he’s being disregarded by most of the field. Heading into Indianapolis, the Tennessee offense will be challenged by the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3 and 10th-highest of Cover 2. Over the last three seasons, Tannehill has posted the eighth-highest FP/Db against Cover 2 (0.38) and seventh vs. Cover 3 (0.43). When these teams met in Week 3, Tannehill threw three TDs without A.J. Brown or Julio Jones, added 56 rushing yards, and posted his highest output of the season (23.48 FPs).
The Bottom Line: As in Week 3, the Colts will present the Titans with a unique challenge. Indianapolis has limited opponents to the fewest rushing TDs this season (0.29 TDs/game). And they’ve only tolerated 0.29 FPs/passing attempt on play action (seventh-fewest). But Indy’s pass rush has struggled badly, and the Colts have permitted the ninth-most pure passing FPG to opposing QBs (17.1). All of the data points are highlighting the exact same path toward victory for Tennessee.
While Derrick Henry will still do well, from a yardage-basis, Tannehill will need to control the scoring inside of the red zone when the Colts bring their air-tight heavy personnel onto the field. Between Tannehill’s personal history of success against the coverages he’ll face on Sunday and the very high likelihood that Tennessee will need him to air it out, we are presented with an excellent opportunity toward profit.
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. WAS ($5.4K DK | $7.0K FD | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Until I see the data supporting a different approach, we need a competitive number of Cover 1 snaps before biting on Teddy Bridgewater exposure. In my opinion, Washington DC Jack Del Rio has shifted his schematic rotation toward including the 10th-highest rate of Cover 1 due to the loss of Ronald Darby, and serious coverage issues at linebacker. But we do not need to understand the why, just the what. And the relevant what is the Cover 1 rate is high enough to signal Teddy-time. Bridgewater ranks third-best among qualified QBs with 0.56 FP/DB and third with a 114.3 passer rating vs. Cover 1 over the last three years.
The Bottom Line: 38% of Teddy’s total TDs have been thrown on only 21% of DBs facing Cover 1 over those three seasons. Discovering that his ownership is expected this low was a welcomed surprise since Washington has graciously renounced the most FPG to opposing offenses. They’ve tossed 26.7 FPG to QBs overall, 21.9 drawn from pure passing efforts. And that overall QB leniency extends to the last for games (26.2) and the last two (26.2).
Pivots (Capped at 5% Expected Ownership)
Carson Wentz, IND vs. TEN ($5.7K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: Colts -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. CAR ($5.9K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: Falcons -3.0 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Contrarian (Capped at 2% Expected Ownership)
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CLE ($5.4K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: Browns -3.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at BUF ($5.5K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Punt (Capped at 1% Expected Ownership)
Jameis Winston, NO vs. TB ($6.0K DK | $7.4K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert, CHI vs. SF ($5.4K DK | $6.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
Khalil Herbert is the only RB to rush for more than 67 yards, to eclipse 100, or to run for more than 23 yards on a single attempt against Tampa Bay this season. The window for Damien Williams to claim the show until David Montgomery returns has closed. The Bears committed themselves to the future when they notified the world that Justin Fields would be their starter moving forward. And Herbert is seizing a spot in those future plans. He’s averaging 16 FPG since Montgomery’s injury, 20.3 in the last two games as the lead back.
The Bottom Line: Facing off with San Francisco in Week 8, they’ll pack along a 16th-ranking in FPG granted to opposing RBs this season (23.8). Herbert will not face a vanilla run defense, but light years better than facing the Buccaneers. With RB27/RB21 pricing and with 18-19 carries to work, finding Herbert’s ownership will be under 1% made my day. Herbert’s picture should be listed beside contrarian in the dictionary, at least for Week 8.
Samaje Perine, CIN at NYJ ($6.1K DK | $6.9K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
While I hinted at it in Advanced Matchups, this is one of my absolute favorite Week 8 targets, and I’ve kept it entirely to myself. Until now, of course. One of the best kept secrets in today’s world of NFL over-reporting, Samaje Perine has earned the other half of a full-on timeshare with Joe Mixon. Whereas Mixon has flopped on a per touch basis, Perine ranks 14th-best with 1.01 FPs/touch. The Jets are releasing 38.4 FPG to RBs this season (the most), 19% more than the next worst team on the list (Seattle). That includes the most pure rushing (20.7), receiving FPG (17.7), and red zone touches/game to RBs (8.17).
The Bottom Line: Mixon is my RB1 for Week 8. But you can even roster him with less than 10% ownership number next to his name. And the run defense of the Jets has plummeted to further depths recently, handing out 46.3 FPG to RBs over their last four games. If you want to stock up on FPs this Halloween Sunday, you can take comfort knowing both Mixon and Perine will be first in line to take their fill.
Overlooked (Capped at 10% Expected Ownership)
*Joe Mixon, CIN at NYJ ($6.9K DK *| $7.6K FD | Spread: Bengals -10.5 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: 8-9%)**
Pivots (Capped at 5% Expected Ownership)
Damien Harris, NE at LAC ($6.1K DK | $6.9K FD | Spread: Chargers -4.0 | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
James Robinson, JAX at SEA ($6.6K DK | *$8.2K FD *| Spread: Seahawks -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Contrarian (Capped at 2% Expected Ownership)
*Zack Moss, BUF vs. MIA ($5.2K DK *| $6.1K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)**
David Johnson, HOU vs. LAR ($4.2K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: Rams -14.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Punts (Capped at 1% Expected Ownership)
Jamaal Williams, DET vs. PHI ($4.7K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: Eagles -3.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
D’Ernest Johnson, CLE vs. PIT ($5.4K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: Browns -3.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson, PIT at CLE ($6.7K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Diontae Johnson just isn’t getting the amount of DFS love he deserves this season… and I love it. Ben Roethlisberger has provided Johnson with at least 10 targets in four-of-five of his games played. Diontae currently ranks sixth with an average of 10 targets/game. In the one game where he didn’t see double-digit targets, Johnson still put up 15 FPs while the Steelers killed the clock to close out a victory over Denver after building a big early lead. In spite of the Steelers playing the seventh-most difficult schedule, to date, and with each of those teams ranked in the top-10 at limiting WR production, Diontae still ranks 11th in scoring.
The Bottom Line: The Browns use the highest rate of Cover 4 and eighth-highest of Cover 3. While Chase Claypool shreds the Cover 4 looks, Diontae will want to focus his attacks on the Cover 3 snaps. Over the last three seasons, Johnson ranks fourth-best with 0.55 FPs/Route (FP/Rt) against Cover 3. During the last 2020 game against Cleveland with Roethlisberger under center, Johnson posted 22.7 FPs. While he is an excellent value on both platforms, he’s only priced as the WR17 on DK. Yet Diontae will still only be owned in 3% of DK lineups and 1-2% on FD. Lock him in!
Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. WAS ($4.9K DK | $6.0K FD | ExpOwn: 5-6% DK | 1-2% FD)
No reason to mince words, the Broncos are in desperation-mode after losing four straight games. It’s quite an alteration in emotion for Denver after a 3-0 start. It’s not the greatest scenario for HC Vic Fangio. He was quoted during the preseason by the Denver Post: “I would rather have the pressure turned up with high expectations than turned up with low expectations.” That wish has certainly been granted.
New GM George Paton could make a change very soon if the Broncos lose to Washington in Week 8. And, if Jerry Jeudy is healthy enough to be activated, we can be assured that Fangio will consider him healthy enough to use without limitation in this MUST WIN GAME. As written above, the love for Jeudy this week begins with the excellence against Cover 1 by his QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Before Jeudy hit IR, he ranked 10th in FPs/route (0.55), and seventh in YPRR (3.00).
NOTE: Jeudy didn’t practice on Friday with soreness. Keep an eye on his status.
Broncos coach Vic Fangio on WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) after Friday's practice: "He experienced some soreness after working the last few days so we took the conservative route and gave him a rest day and a full rehab day rather than be out here, but still optimistic.''
— Jeff Legwold (@Jeff_Legwold) October 29, 2021
The Bottom Line: The Football Team has surrendered the second-most FPs to WRs (45.8), the most out of the Slot (29.7). Truly a dream matchup for Jeudy to make his return. Yet, somehow, he’s projected to be owned in only 5-6% of DK lineups & 1-2% on FD.
Jamal Agnew, JAX at SEA ($3.7K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
Drafted by the Lions in the fifth round of the 2017 draft, Jamal Agnew was selected to play special teams and cornerback. It wasn’t until the offseason prior to the 2020 season that Agnew announced that he would transition to wideout. The average fan of the NFL will have no knowledge of Agnew. He didn’t find prominence in the fantasy realm until DJ Chark Jr. suffered a broken foot. Laviska Shenault Jr. made the transition to the outside, as Agnew was installed as the new starting slot for Jacksonville.
The Bottom Line: Everything about Agnew is projection-based. It’ll be some time before any of his coverage numbers provide any reliability. What we do know is that he has averaged 11.9 FPG from a 5.5/59.5/0 line on 6.5 targets during his first two games in the starting lineup. He’s been on the field for 68% and 73% of team passing plays, with 23% and 14% target shares. Seattle has limited opposing WRs to the 13th-fewest FPG (36.1), but 22.6 of that number has been passed along to the slot (seventh-most). He will essentially go unowned on Saturday.
Overlooked (Capped at 10% Expected Ownership)
A.J. Brown, TEN at IND ($6.9K DK | $7.6K FD | Spread: Colts -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: 9-10%)
*Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. MIA ($8.1K DK *|* $7.3K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 7-8%)*
Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. TEN ($5.3K DK | *$6.6K FD *| Spread: Colts -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
Pivots (Capped at 5% Expected Ownership)
Terry McLaurin, WAS at DEN ($7.6K DK | $7.4K FD | Spread: Broncos -3.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Chase Claypool, PIT at CLE ($6.3K DK | $6.5K FD | Spread: Browns -3.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Jaylen Waddle, MIA at BUF ($5.6K DK | $6.4K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Contrarian (Capped at 2% Expected Ownership)
Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. WAS ($6.4K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Broncos -3.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX at SEA ($4.7K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: Seahawks -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Punts (Capped at 1% Expected Ownership)
T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. TEN ($4.9K DK | $6.2K FD | Spread: Colts -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Denzel Mims, NYJ vs. CIN ($3.0K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: Bengals -10.5 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <1%) *If Corey Davis is ruled out
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, NE at LAC ($4.2K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Going back to the well, Hunter Henry maintains this position in the column from last week. Returning to face the team that drafted him in the second round of the 2016 draft, Henry has scored in four straight games. While I also like Jonnu Smith as a punt this week, Henry has been running twice as many routes as Smith, and he used them for double the air yardage both per game and per target. (Jonnu is also questionable with a shoulder injury.)
The Bottom Line: It’s likely to be a warm return for Henry since Los Angeles is hemorrhaging 19.3 FPG to TEs this season (second-most), and 0.67 TDs/game (fourth). Vegas is currently favoring the Chargers by four in this spot. I’m all over New England here and 90% of the MoneyLine cash agrees with me.
Mo Alie-Cox, IND vs. TEN ($3.2K DK | $5.1K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
One of the biggest complaints I’ve noticed over the last two seasons is the usage of Mecole Hardman by the Chiefs. I get it. Hardman possesses a mesmerizing collection of athletic traits. I feel that exact level of frustration for the usage of Mo Alie-Cox by the Colts. In spite of running analytic circles around Jack Doyle since the beginning of last season, Indianapolis is still using Doyle on 48% of passing plays compared to 38% for Alie-Cox. Take a look at these ranks:
Second-best with 0.57 FP/Rt
Third with 21.1% of his targeting on throws of 20-or-more yards
11th with 1.84 YPRR
Seventh with 10.5 air yards/target
Seventh with a 137.5 targeted passer rating
Doyle is a solid NFL TE. Rather than dragging his name through the mud, I’ll just state that his targeted passer rating this season is 41.9. The Titans have limited TEs to the fifth-fewest FPG (8.3), but that number is on the rise with 12.8 over the last four games (16th).
The Bottom Line: With pricing as the TE24 on DK and TE20 on FD, MAC investment is an easy call during large-scale roster construction. He’s one of my top-five favorite TE plays of Week 8 with projections of non-existent ownership.
Pivot (Capped at 5% Expected Ownership)
Mike Gesicki, MIA at BUF ($5.0K DK | $6.3K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Contrarian (Capped at 2% Expected Ownership)
C.J. Uzomah, CIN at NYJ ($3.7K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Bengals -10.5 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Punts (Capped at 1% Expected Ownership)
Tommy Sweeney, BUF vs. MIA ($2.9K DK | $4.3K FD | Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Defense/Special Teams
New England Patriots, NE at LAC ($2.8K DK | $3.8K FD | ExpOwn: <2%)
Denver Broncos, DEN vs. WAS ($3.4K DK | $4.1K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Pivot (Capped at 5% Expected Ownership)
Buffalo Bills, BUF vs. MIA ($3.3K DK | *$4.7K FD *| Spread: Bills -14.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Contrarian (Capped at 2% Expected Ownership)
*Cleveland Browns, CLE vs. PIT ($3.0K DK *| $4.0K FD | Spread: Browns -3.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)**
Punt (Capped at 1% Expected Ownership)
New Orleans Saints, NO vs. TB ($2.5K DK | $3.6K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
