Joe Dolan and I are covering every major offensive transaction from the 2021 off-season in our Off-season Tracker articles. We broke down all the important free agency signings and trades from a fantasy perspective in articles sorted by position. The articles are ordered by players changing teams ("New Homes") and by players sticking with their 2020 teams ("Staying Put"). The players are also ordered by their potential fantasy impact for the 2021 season in each section. Be sure to also check out Graham Barfield’s “Fantasy Fallout” pieces on the biggest transactions of the off-season.
New Homes
Kenny Golladay (NYG, 28) — The Giants and Golladay came to terms on a four-year, $72 million contract with $40 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: The Giants rostered a bunch of secondary receiving weapons last season so GM Dave Gettleman went out and got Daniel Jones a true #1 receiver this off-season by inking Golladay to a massive contract. Golladay was one of the more confounding first-time free agents because of his advanced age and because of his lost 2020 season. Golladay and JuJu Smith-Schuster came out in the same 2017 draft and Golladay is a full three years older than the Steelers WR. He’s also only three months younger than Allen Robinson, who came out in the 2014 draft. Golladay is coming off a mysterious 2020 campaign after hamstring and hip injuries unexpectedly cut his season short after just five games. He strained a hip flexor muscle on Nov. 1 and he never appeared in another game despite the Lions never placing him on the injured reserve, which certainly raised some red flags about what was going on behind the scenes in Detroit. Golladay mustered 20/338/2 receiving on 32 targets for 13.2 FPG in his five contests. He averaged 84.5 receiving yards per game in his four healthy games last season.
Golladay had been one of the best downfield and end-zone threats during the 2019 season because of his size (6’4”, 218 pounds) and speed (4.5). Golladay tied Stefon Diggs for the league-lead with 16 receptions on 20+ yard passes and he finished just seven yards behind Diggs with 628 yards on those catches. He’s averaging a healthy 16.8 YPR in his first four seasons, and he led all receivers with 11 touchdown receptions in 2019. Jones should love throwing to the contested-catch freak, which he hasn’t had on the perimeter early in his career, and the third-year quarterback did excel as a downfield passer last season. Jones completed a promising 46.5% of his passes that traveled 20+ yards — behind only Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield — and he averaged a healthy 15.2 YPA on those passes. Overall, Golladay gets a slight downgrade going from Matthew Stafford to Jones, and he’s to have a little more target competition from Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Darius Slayton. The biggest question is whether OC Jason Garrett will be able to get the most out of Golladay this season. Golladay should be viewed as a high- to mid-WR2 option even with some small concerns about Jones, Garrett, and his target competition.
Will Fuller (Mia, 27) — The Dolphins and Fuller came to terms on a one-year deal worth over $10 million.
Fantasy Points: Fuller failed to get the payday he was looking for in free agency so he opted to take a one-year deal to hit the open market once again next season. Fuller’s market could have been suppressed a bit because of his extensive injury issues and because of the six-game suspension he received at the end of November for PED use. It also didn’t help that the salary cap shrunk and that there was a glut of viable WRs available this season. Fuller had an outstanding season as a first-time #1 WR before he got popped for PEDs after Week 12. He actually stayed healthy last season but he still missed at least five games for the fourth straight season for his suspension — he’ll finish up his suspension by missing the 2021 season opener. Fuller still posted career-best numbers with 53/879/8 receiving on 75 targets to finish as the WR8 with 17.2 FPG while playing 87% of the snaps in 11 games. Fuller finished seventh in yards per route run (2.28) and he had only two drops last season, which was once a big concern of his coming out of Notre Dame.
Fuller will bring some much-needed big-play ability to Miami’s offense next season with his elite, 4.32 speed. The Dolphins had no downfield presence last season, but it’s yet to be seen if their current quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, will be able to take full advantage of Fuller’s skill set after he completed just 38.7% of his passes thrown 20+ yards downfield. Fuller did show off a more complete route tree last season in his first season without ball-hog DeAndre Hopkins. He should be a good complement to DeVante Parker, who is a contested-catch specialist like Nuk. The Dolphins got a great bargain with Fuller and they could potentially use him to entice Deshaun Watson to accept a trade to Miami if they make progress toward a deal. As it is, Fuller will settle in as a low-end WR3 in fantasy drafts playing with Tua and competing for targets with Parker and Mike Gesicki.
Curtis Samuel (Was, 25) — Washington and Samuel reached an agreement on a three-year, $34.5 million deal, which includes $24.5 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Washington desperately needed an infusion of talent at wide receiver, and GM Marty Hurney and HC Ron Rivera turned to their former Panthers receiver in Samuel to remedy the situation. He finally came into his own in his fourth season with essentially a position change. He turned into a versatile weapon around the line of scrimmage after being primarily pigeonholed as a deep threat in his first three seasons in Carolina. Samuel posted 77/851/3 receiving on 97 targets to finish as the WR27 with 14.1 FPG while playing 68% of the snaps in 15 games. Panthers OC Joe Brady used him like the dual-threat player he was when the Panthers drafted him in the second round out of Ohio State. He had at least one carry in every game and he led all WRs with 41/200/2 rushing last season. Brady also used him as a primary slot receiver with 71.8% of routes coming from the slot. Samuel never ran more than 25.8% of his route from the slot in any of his first three seasons. His aDOT plummeted from 14.6 yards in 2019 to 7.3 yards in 2020, but he made up for it with career-bests in YAC (4.3) and yards per route run (1.93) playing out of the slot with Teddy Bridgewater.
Washington’s offense is suddenly looking dangerous after they landed the gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick to orchestrate its offense in 2021. OC Scott Turner could get awfully creative with Samuel and Antonio Gibson on the field together with their versatile skill sets, and the Football Team now has one of the fastest collection of skill players in the league. Hopefully, Turner took notes on how Brady used Samuel last season after his father, Norv Turner, miscast him as a deep threat when he was the Panthers OC in 2018-19 — Scott served as quarterbacks coach during that two-year stretch. McLaurin is the clear #1 receiver in Washington but Samuel will have a chance to carve out a significant role as he battles with Logan Thomas for the #2 role in this passing attack. Samuel will be drafted in the WR3/4 range this year, and he’s someone I’ll be actively targeting since he’s joining an ascending offense with a fantasy-friendly quarterback.
Corey Davis (NYJ, 26) — The Jets and Davis reached an agreement on a three-year, $37.5 million deal with $27 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Davis picked the right time to have a break-out season as he got paid in his first trip into free agency. The Titans declined Davis’ fifth-year option at the beginning of last May, which shows what Tennessee thought of him coming into the 2020 season. He finally showed signs why the Titans drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2017 with his first truly complete season as a pro. Davis posted career-highs across the board with 65/984/5 receiving on 92 targets to finish as the WR32 with 13.7 FPG while playing 77% of the snaps in 14 games. The one big knock on his 2020 campaign was his huge swings in performance. He totaled 100+ receiving yards five times but he posted goose eggs three different times, including in a playoff loss to the Ravens. He still finished fourth in yards per route run at 2.58 yards and his YPR (15.1 in 2020) and his catch rate (70.3%) have climbed in each of his first four seasons.
Davis is a solid all-around receiver who doesn’t necessarily dominate in any one area, and he’ll get to be the #1 WR in New York after playing second fiddle to A.J. Brown the last two seasons. Davis’ main competition for targets will be Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims so he’s the early betting favorite to lead the Jets in targets next season. The big question is will Davis be able to handle his new role as a true #1 WR after failing in that spot in his first two seasons in the league. He took a three-year deal to hit free agency again before he hits his 30s so he must have some confidence he can make gains on his 2020 performance. Davis could also be heading back into an awkward quarterback situation like he once had with Marcus Mariota to start his career. Sam Darnold is New York’s starter as of now but the Jets could move on from him to draft Zach Wilson with the #2 overall pick in late April. Davis will be a risky WR3 in fantasy drafts since the Jets have one of the scariest quarterback situations in the league. Davis could also easily exceed expectations if he gets above-average quarterback play since he’s likely to see heavy targets in this WR corps.
Marvin Jones (Jax, 31) — The Jaguars and Jones reached an agreement on a two-year, $14.5 million contract with $9.2 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Jones has firmly established himself as a high-end #2 WR over his first nine seasons, playing the Robin role next to a pair of Batmans in A.J. Green and Kenny Golladay during his career. Jones could serve as a co-headliner with D.J. Chark this season after signing with the Jaguars to start free agency. Marv did take on a bigger role in 2020 with Golladay missing a majority of the season. He finished with 76/978/9 receiving on 115 targets to finish as the WR26 with 14.2 FPG while playing 90% of the snaps in 16 games. He caught exactly nine TDs for the third time in his last four seasons, and he posted a career-high 76 catches at 30 years old last season. Jones is averaging 14.2 YPR for his career despite seeing that average dip to 12.7 YPR over the last two seasons. Jones has seen his slot routes rise over the last two seasons, which may explain the dip in YPR. He’s run more than 30% of his routes from inside the last two seasons after never running more than 20% of his routes from the slot in any of his first six seasons.
Jones’ additional versatility with age certainly helped his market and the man behind it, Darrell Bevell, will once again be calling plays for him after a two-year stint as the OC in Detroit. Jones will also go from playing with one of the league’s most gifted quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford, to playing with the league’s newest toolsy quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. Jones will bring a veteran presence for this extremely young passing attack, and Lawrence thrived throwing to another contested-catch standout in Tee Higgins at Clemson. Jones is a bit redundant in this offense, though, as he shares an eerily similar body type and skill set to Chark — differentiating between Jones’ #11 and Chark’s #17 next season is going to be a nightmare! Jones consistently exceeded expectations when healthy in Detroit, and he’ll have a slight leg up on the rest of his teammates since he’s familiar with Bevell. I wouldn’t bet against him as a WR5 for fantasy next season, and he should be much cheaper than his seventh- or eighth-round ADP from last season.
John Brown (LV, 31) — The Raiders and Brown reached terms on a one-year deal worth up to $5.5 million next season, according to Fantasy Points’ own Adam Caplan.
Fantasy Points: Brown may have been released by the Bills but he’s still playing at a high level because of his ability to threaten opponents downfield — he owns a career 14.8 YPR average. He posted 33/458/3 receiving on 52 targets for 96.8 FP while playing 77% of the snaps in just nine games. Brown missed seven contests last season because of a number of leg injuries, but he played in 15+ games in five of his seven seasons. He averaged 4.8/70.7 receiving per game with a 22% target share as Buffalo’s #1 WR during his career-best season in 2019. His averages dipped to 3.7/50.9 receiving per game with a 17% target share last season with Stefon Diggs in the mix and because of his injuries.
Brown also led Baltimore in receiving in 2018 and there’s a chance Brown could be the #1 WR in Las Vegas — Darren Waller is still the clear-cut top receiver in this passing game. Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards each flopped as rookies last season, and Brown has a chance to step right into Nelson Agholor’s vertical-threat role. The problem in 2021 is that Ruggs and Edwards should each be improved as sophomores and Derek Carr’s offensive line could be a liability after Las Vegas purged its ranks this off-season. Brown has a touch of upside if Ruggs and Edwards fail to progress this season, but Brown is best suited as a WR5/6 in Best Ball formats because of his spike performances.
Nelson Agholor (NE, 28) — The Patriots and Agholor agreed to terms on a two-year, $26 million deal.
Fantasy Points: Most people didn’t see Agholor turning into one of the league’s best downfield threats last season after the Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs (and his 4.27-speed) to fill that role with the 12th overall pick in last year’s draft. Las Vegas didn’t see it coming either as they landed the Eagles’ 2017 first-round pick for the veteran minimum last off-season. Agholor parlayed a career-year in the desert into a fat new contract from the suddenly extravagant Patriots. Drops and inconsistent production stained the start of Agholor’s career in Philadelphia, but that changed playing with Derek Carr and the Raiders. Agholor posted 48/896/8 receiving on 82 targets to finish as the WR45 with 11.6 FPG while playing 67% of the snaps in 16 games. His season took off with more playing time starting in Week 4. He averaged 12.9 FPG in his final 13 games and he had three different performances with 100+ yards and a touchdown. Agholor finished behind only Marquez Valdes-Scantling with an 18.7 YPR average and he finished sixth in average depth of target at 15.7 yards. Agholor’s career also took off with a move to the perimeter last season. He ran 67% of his routes on the outside after he previously ran 56% of his routes or more from the slot in each of his last three seasons in Philadelphia. Agholor still dropped an ugly 11% of his targets (9-of-82) last season, which was the one area he failed to clean up with the Raiders.
Agholor turned out to be one of free agency’s biggest steals in 2020, but he could turn out to be one the biggest busts of this year’s class. The Patriots are going to be a run-heavy offense with one of the league’s worst passers, Cam Newton, at the helm. Cam will have to be a more willing downfield thrower to give Agholor a chance to even be a WR3 after he attempted just 29 passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield — Dak Prescott attempted 28 downfield passes in four-plus games. Agholor is also going to a more crowded receiving corps in 2021 with Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Julian Edelman, Kendrick Bourne, and Jakobi Meyers all competing for limited targets. The Patriots also figure to run a lot of 12 personnel next season and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots use a heavy rotation at receiver. Agholor will be drafted as a boom-or-bust WR5/6 who will be better suited for Best Ball formats.
Emmanuel Sanders (Buf, 34) — The Bills and Sanders agreed to terms on a one-year, $6 million contract.
Fantasy Points: Sanders lasted just a season in New Orleans with the Saints needing to clear cap space before the start of free agency. He still played at a relatively high level despite his advanced playing age and despite tearing his Achilles tendon at 31 years old in 2018. Sanders posted 61/726/5 receiving on 82 targets last season, and he finished as the WR44 with 11.8 FPG while playing 60% of the snaps in 14 games. Sanders stepped up while Michael Thomas was out of the lineup last season. He averaged 14.9 FPG in seven games without Thomas compared to 8.2 FPG in nine games with Thomas. Sanders will be a great #3/4 WR option for the Bills because of his positional versatility. He ran about a third of his routes from the slot over the last two seasons after being Denver’s primary slot WR in 2018. Emmanuel also still has sneaky vertical speed to stretch defenses even though he didn’t get to show it much playing with Drew Brees last season. That shouldn’t be an issue in Buffalo this year with Josh Allen’s howitzer at quarterback.
The Bills previously tried to trade for Sanders so he’s been on the team’s radar, which makes sense since the organization has clearly prioritized route-running/speed from its receivers — e.g. Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. Sanders’ addition will allow the Bills to run a lot of four-WR sets once again this season after they ran the second-most plays (186) with 10-personnel on the field last season. Sanders will likely rotate on the perimeter with Gabriel Davis when the Bills use three-WR sets unless the second-year pro shows he’s ready to be a full-time player in training camp. Sanders will be a WR5/6 in fantasy drafts this year because of his limited role, but I could see him being a hot waiver wire pickup if there’s an injury in front of him since he’s still playing at a high level.
A.J. Green (Ari, 33) — The Cardinals and Green agreed to terms on a one-year, $8 million contract, which includes $6 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Green has been out of the playoff mix since 2015 but he’ll be in the thick of it in the NFC West this year after joining Kyler Murray and an up-and-coming Cardinals roster. Green was once one of the best receivers in the league in the mid-2010s, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction for three straight years since 2017. He missed the entire 2019 season because of foot and ankle injuries, and those injuries robbed him of his explosiveness last season. He also displayed an indifferent on-field demeanor last season as he looked like a player who wanted out of town. Green finished with just 47/523/2 receiving on 104 targets for 111.3 FP while playing 76% of the snaps in 16 games. Green had five different games when he failed to catch a pass last season as he owned a putrid 45.2% catch rate and an ugly 1.06 yards per route run.
Bengals rookie Tee Higgins zoomed past him by the time the calendar flipped to October last season, and it would be shocking if Green can turn back the clock to even be a high-end #2 WR playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk has averaged 165 targets per season over the last six years so it’s going to be difficult for Green to establish a consistent secondary role as he competes for targets with Christian Kirk and potentially Larry Fitzgerald. Green also can’t be counted on to be a full-time player since he hasn’t played 900+ snaps since 2015. I’m anticipating Green being drafted in the WR5/6 range this year. You’ll be better served targeting younger, ascending players rather than a player who is searching for form he hasn’t shown in three years.
Josh Reynolds (Ten, 26) — The Titans and Reynolds came to terms on a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: The Titans found their replacement for Corey Davis in Reynolds, who will bring some intriguing length (6’3”, 77” wingspan) and speed (4.52) to Tennessee’s offense. He could also have some untapped potential because he was stuck behind Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp while playing with a below-average quarterback in Jared Goff. Reynolds set career-highs in 2020 with Brandin Cooks leaving town. He posted 52/618/2 receiving on 81 targets for 125.3 FP while playing 71% of the snaps in 16 games. He did see his YPR drop from 14.6 yards in 2018-19 to 11.9 in 2020 and he averaged just 1.26 yards per route run last year. Reynolds has never missed a game since the Rams selected him in the fourth round in 2017, and the Titans viewed him as a strong complementary to A.J. Brown on the outside because of his downfield and red-zone tools. Reynolds has a chance to step into most of the 92 targets left behind by Davis, but Reynolds will also be a volatile WR6 option in fantasy drafts much like Davis was last year.
Tyrell Williams (Det, 29) — Williams and the Lions agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth up to $6.2 million.
Fantasy Points: I called this move in my Free Agency preview article and the transaction made too much sense for both parties. Williams wanted to get his career back on track after injuries derailed his time with the Raiders the last two seasons. He followed his former coach, Anthony Lynn, to Detroit this off-season on a one-year, prove-it-deal to do just that. Now we’ll see if his body cooperates. Las Vegas parted ways with Williams after two seasons after he signed a four-year, $44.3 million pact with the franchise in 2019. Injuries spoiled his once-promising career as he struggled to play through plantar fasciitis in 2019 before he missed the entire 2020 season with yet another torn labrum. Williams is a former 1000-yard receiver back playing with Philip Rivers in 2016. Tyrell can get vertical and he can burn opposing defenses on crossers with his 4.48 speed — he owns a career 16.1 YPR average. His big frame (6’4”, 205 pounds) and big-play ability also helped him to 22 TDs on 359 targets (6.1% TD rate) in 2016-19.
The Lions have plenty of vacated targets and Tyrell will be competing with Breshad Perriman to be the #1 WR in this offense — T.J. Hockenson will likely be the top option in the passing game for Jared Goff. Williams was more interested in snaps and targets in 2021 as opposed to playing with a winner after missing the entire 2020 season. Tyrell has the chance to be fantasy relevant at some point this season if he can return to his old form, especially since the Lions’ receiving corps has been thinned out during free agency. Tyrell will be just off the radar in standard drafts this summer.
Breshad Perriman (Det, 28) — The Lions and Perriman agreed to terms on a one-year, $3 million contract
Fantasy Points: Perriman settled for another one-year, prove-it deal for the second straight year, and he chose another team where he can play right away.Perriman had a strong finishing kick to the 2019 season when he averaged 5.0/101.2/1.0 receiving per game in his final five contests with the Buccaneers. He parlayed it into a one-year deal with $6 million guaranteed ($6.5 million overall) from the Jets, but he once again struggled to stay healthy, which has been his biggest issue since breaking into the league as a first-round pick with the Ravens in 2015. He finished with 30/505/3 receiving on 60 targets for 99.1 FP while playing 90% of the snaps in 12 games — he dealt with ankle, knee, and concussion injuries last season. Perriman flashed his potential with three separate performances with 79+ yards but, like the rest of the Jets offense, he struggled with consistency playing in Adam Gase’s terrible offense. Perriman has averaged 16.5 YPR in his first five seasons of action — he missed his entire rookie season — and his combination of size (6’2”, 215 pounds) and speed (4.3 40-time) make him a tough cover when he’s on the field. He’s not the best fit with Jared Goff, who has been a suspect deep passer his entire career, but he should be pretty active as the potential #1 WR next season as he battles with Tyrell Williams and T.J. Hockenson for targets.
Sammy Watkins (Bal, 28) — The Ravens and Watkins came to terms on a one-year, $6 million contract with $5 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Watkins restructured the final year of his contract with the Chiefs to try for another Super Bowl last season, and they fell one win short of doing it. Watkins never lived up to the three-year, $48 million deal he signed with the Chiefs in 2018 as the 2014 fourth overall pick turned into a complementary receiver in Kansas City. He finished with just 37/421/2 receiving on 55 targets for 89.4 FP while playing 72% of the snaps in 10 games. Watkins has struggled to stay available throughout his career after missing another six games last season (and two additional games in the playoffs). He missed 14 games during his three-year stay in Kansas City and his injuries could be affecting his play. Watkins averaged 15+ YPR in each of his first four seasons before failing to average more than 13.0 YPR in any season playing in the best offense in football with Patrick Mahomes the last three years.
Watkins landed with another title contender in the Ravens this off-season, but he’ll be going from one of the pass-friendliest offenses to one of the league’s run-heaviest offenses. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens passers have targeted WRs at the lowest rate in both 2019 (11.4 targets per game) and 2020 (13.8). At least he’s familiar with OC Greg Roman, whom he worked with in Buffalo in 2015-16, and Watkins has never been afraid to mix it up as a block. Watkins will also be the #3 option, at best, behind Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in this limited passing attack. He’ll be nothing more than a late-round dart throw in Best Ball formats and a waiver wire fill-in if Brown and/or Andrews miss time at any point this season.
Keelan Cole (NYJ, 28) — The Jets and Cole came to terms on a one-year, $5.5 million deal.
Fantasy Points: Cole has been an overachiever throughout his first four seasons with the Jaguars after entering the league as a UDFA out of Kentucky Wesleyan. The Jaguars tried their best to upgrade the position and to phase Cole out of the starting lineup over the last three seasons, but Cole kept working his way back into the lineup because of his production. He posted 55/642/5 receiving on 88 targets for 149.7 FP while playing 76% of the snaps in 16 games. Cole averaged a career-low 11.7 YPR last season after averaging 15.0 yards in 2019 and 17.8 yards as a rookie in 2017, but he’s not to blame because of his dreadful quarterback situation last season. Cole is an excellent route runner with strong hands who brings versatility to the position. He started his career as a field stretcher on the perimeter before becoming the team’s primary slot receiver last season, which also explains his dip in YPR. Cole is the Jets’ top backup for now behind Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder, but Cole’s money suggests Crowder could be shown the door in the near future since they can save $10.4 million by releasing him. Cole would be on the radar in deeper PPR formats if the Jets do indeed release Crowder.
DeSean Jackson (LAR, 34) — The Rams and Jackson came to terms on a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: D-Jax is heading back to his hometown to play in Los Angeles’ now loaded offense with the big-armed Matthew Stafford. The Eagles pulled the ripcord on Jackson after he appeared in just eight games in the first two seasons of a three-year, $27.9 million pact. DeSean was quite effective when he was on the field the last two seasons, posting 23/395/3 receiving on 36 targets and averaging 17.2 YPR. Jackson showed he can still absolutely fly in his limited chances the last two seasons but his body is, unfortunately, breaking down. He last played 16 games in a season back in 2013 and he last reached 1000 yards with Washington in 2016. Sean McVay was Washington’s offensive coordinator during D-Jax’s three-year stretch in the nation’s capital. The Rams desperately needed to add some downfield speed to their offense since they already have three WRs who primarily work in the intermediate areas of the field in Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson. It wouldn’t be surprising if McVay tries to manage D-Jax’s snaps by using him more as a situational deep threat to try to keep him healthy for as long as possible this season.
Kendrick Bourne (NE, 26) — The Patriots and Bourne reached terms on a three-year, $22.5 million contract.
Fantasy Points: Bourne cashed in his first major payday with the Patriots in free agency after entering the league as an undrafted free agent from Eastern Washington where he played with Cooper Kupp. Bourne became a steady option in San Francisco the last four seasons by taking advantage of his limited opportunities. Bourne quietly had a breakout campaign with 49/667/2 receiving on 74 targets for 129.7 FP while playing 66% of the snaps in 15 games. Bourne led the 49ers in slot routes last season with 208 but he has the versatility to play on the outside, which is clearly a skill the Patriots covet between Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Nelson Agholor. Bourne averaged an excellent 12.9 YPR to start his career as a primary slot receiver, and he led the 49ers with five red-zone touchdowns on just eight RZ targets in 2019. He also played in San Francisco’s run-heavy offense so he’ll be able to mix it up as a blocker in another run-oriented attack. Bourne is off the radar in fantasy drafts since he’ll have heavy competition for a limited number of targets between Agholor, Meyers, Julian Edelman, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry. The Patriots also figure to run a lot of 12 personnel next season and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots use a heavy rotation at receiver.
David Moore (Car, 26) — The Panthers and Moore agreed to terms on a two-year, $4.75 million contract with $1.75 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: The Panthers lost Curtis Samuel to Washington and they didn’t take long to find another receiver to try to fill the void. Moore, a late-round favorite of our Greg Cosell, has made a lot happen with his limited opportunities in his first four seasons as a seventh-round pick out of East Central, a Division II program in Oklahoma. He’s scored 13 TDs on 134 career targets while averaging 14.9 YPR over the last three seasons after seeing action in just one game as a rookie. He finished with 35/417/6 receiving on 47 targets for 118.8 FP while playing 45% of the snaps in 16 games. Moore’s YPR average dipped to just 11.9 yards this season after he averaged 17.3 YPR in 2018-19. Moore is a thick (6’0”, 215 pounds), athletic (4.43 speed) receiver who has consistently shown strong hands and a knack for the circus catch. The Panthers could give him a chance to be their #3 WR and it wouldn’t be surprising to see his career take off a bit with more targets.
Adam Humphries (Was, 28) — Washington inked Humphries to a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: Humphries’ stay in Tennessee didn’t go as planned with the Titans cutting the cord just two years into their four-year, $36 million pact. An ankle injury derailed his 2019 campaign before a nasty collision against the Bengals in Week 8 ruined his 2020 season. It took him more than a month to get back on the field after his concussion against the Bengals, but his symptoms reappeared after his lone contest back. The Titans decided to shut him down for the season after his symptoms came back in Week 13, and they ended their relationship with him at the end of February when they released him to save $4.75 million in cap space. Humphries previously posted 600+ receiving yards and 55+ catches in three straight seasons in Tampa Bay in 2016-18, and in two of those seasons (2017-18) he played with his new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Humphries will be Washington’s #3 WR, at best, entering the season, and he could sneak onto PPR radar if he can stay healthy and in the mix.
Willie Snead (LV, 29) — The Raiders and Snead agreed to terms on a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: Snead has been a steady option out of the slot for the last sevens years, but his market must’ve been pretty shaky if he took a one-year deal with a team that already has an established slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow. Snead was stuck in the wrong offense to make much of a fantasy impact the last two seasons with the run-heavy Ravens, but he previously posted 141/1879/7 receiving in his second and third seasons playing with Drew Brees in 2015-16. Snead was the centerpiece of Baltimore’s passing attack for a three-week stretch in Weeks 8-10 when Lamar Jackson was really struggling last season. He finished with 33/432/3 receiving on 48 targets for 94.2 FP while playing 63% of the snaps in 13 games. Snead is a quarterback's best friend in the middle of the field as his quarterbacks own an NFL passer rating of 99.4 when targeting Snead during his career. The Raiders WR corps is muddled heading into the season without a true #1 option (Darren Waller is the true top receiver). Snead is going to make it more difficult for Henry Ruggs, John Brown, Bryan Edwards, and/or Renfrow to emerge for fantasy.
John Ross (NYG, 26) — The Giants and Ross agreed to a one-year, $2.5 million contract with $1 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: Ross, a 2017 first-round pick, is looking to revive his dormant career much like Nelson Agholor and Breshad Perriman have done in recent seasons after disastrous stays with the teams that drafted them in the first round. Ross has just 51/733/10 receiving in just 27 games in his first four seasons out of a possible 64 games because of a number of injuries. Zac Taylor began making him a healthy scratch last season and, to add injury to insult, he had a season-ending foot injury in practice on his second rep as a cornerback in November. Ross has plenty of speed to burn since he holds the Combine record with a 4.22 40-time, but he’ll need his body to cooperate and he’ll need a real opportunity to show he’s a viable deep threat. Ross is currently slotted in as New York’s #3 WR after the team cut Golden Tate before free agency, but he could move into a bench role since the Giants are still looking to upgrade at WR this off-season.
Chris Conley (Hou, 29) — The Texans and Conley reached terms on a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: The Texans are loading up on receivers on one-year deals with Conley joining Alex Erickson, Chris Moore, and Donte Moncrief in Houston. The Jaguars phased Conely out of their plans by the end of last season with Collin Johnson seeing more playing time. He finished with 40/471/2 receiving on 63 targets for 98.1 FP while playing 45% of the snaps in 15 games, which came a year after he posted career-highs across the board (47/775/5 receiving) in his first season with the Jaguars. Conley will at least be a backup perimeter WR for Houston with his intriguing size (6’3”, 205 pounds) and speed (4.35), and there’s a good chance he starts across from Brandin Cooks in three-WR sets. Conley has the chance to have some low-end fantasy relevance if he’d get the chance to play with one of the best deep throwers in Deshaun Watson, but there’s not much to like if he’s paired with Tyrod Taylor this season.
Phillip Dorsett (Jax, 28) — The Jaguars and Dorsett agreed to terms on a contract for the 2021 season.
Fantasy Points: The Seahawks brought in Dorsett last off-season to add even more speed to their receiving corps. HC Pete Carroll said early in training camp he was the fastest player the Seahawks have ever had, but Dorsett injured his right foot toward the end of August and he never appeared in a game after undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs in November. Dorsett had some moments for a desperate Patriots WR corps in 2019, posting 29/397/5 receiving on 54 targets in 14 games with Tom Brady. He’ll need to prove his health but vertical speed is a commodity every team covets in their passing attack, including the Jaguars. Dorsett is unlikely to be fantasy relevant but he could play with a fourth legendary QB to start his career in Trevor Lawrence — he previously played with Andrew Luck, Brady, and Russell Wilson.
Alex Erickson (Hou, 29) — The Texans and the Bengals agreed to terms on a one-year contract. He’ll likely primarily serve as the team’s punt returner and he’ll back up slot receiver Randall Cobb. Erickson is only two years removed from posting 43/529/0 receiving on 78 targets playing with Andy Dalton in 2019 so he’s capable of stepping into the starting lineup, if needed.
Kalif Raymond (Det, 27) — The Lions and Raymond came to terms on a one-year contract. The Titans decided to let Raymond walk by not tendering him as a restricted free agent, and he’ll head to Detroit where he’ll replace Jamal Agnew as the team’s returner. He’ll also be used as a situational deep threat as he’s averaging 19.8 YPR on 18 catches over the last two seasons.
Brandon Powell (Buf, 26) — The Bills and Powell agreed to terms on a one-year contract. He’ll primarily play on special teams for the Bills, but he did play a career-high 181 offensive snaps last season with Julio Jones battling injuries last season. Powell will slot in as Buffalo’s #6 WR next season so he’s not guaranteed to make the roster.
Jamal Agnew (Jax, 26) — The Jaguars and Agnew reached terms on a three-year deal with a maxed out value of $21 million. Agnew has been one of the league’s best returners since he broke into the league with the Lions in 2017. He’s posted four punt-return TDs and one kick-return TD in his first 46 games, but he has just 16 catches and 10 carries to start his career. Agnew will likely be relegated to return duties once again but perhaps new HC Urban Meyer has some additional ideas to utilize him on offense.
Andre Roberts (Hou, 33) — The Texans and Roberts agreed to terms on a two-year, $6 million contract according to our guy Adam Caplan. Roberts is primarily a returner at this stage in his career with just 18 combined catches over the last four seasons between the Bills (2019-20), Jets (2018), and Falcons (2017). Roberts led the league by averaging 30.0 yards per kick return last season, and he has more than 1000 combined return yards in three of his last four seasons.
Mohamed Sanu (SF, 32) — The 49ers and Sanu came to terms on a one-year contract. He played three games with the 49ers last season before being cut, and he’ll be a long shot to make the roster out of training camp unless the 49ers have a rash of injuries at wide receiver again. Sanu has bounced between the Falcons, Patriots, 49ers, and Lions over the last two seasons, and he’ll need to reverse time if he’s to find fantasy relevance this season.
Chris Moore (Hou, 28) — The Texans and Moore agreed to terms on a one-year, $2 million contract, which reunites Moore with HC David Culley, who coached WRs in Baltimore. Moore has just three catches over the last two seasons and he appeared in just three games last season because of thigh and finger injuries. He’ll be a depth piece at best for Houston’s receiving corps next season.
Damion Ratley (Det, 26) — The Lions and Ratley came to terms on a contract for the 2021 season. He joins a barren WR corps in Detroit after Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones bolted this off-season, but Ratley is unlikely to make much noise after spending time with three different teams last season.
Donte Moncrief (Hou, 28) — The Texans and Moncrief agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract. He’s caught just five passes for 33 yards in 14 games over the last two seasons between the Patriots, Steelers, and Panthers. New England turned Moncrief into a special teams player last year as he saw more snaps on special teams (75) than he did on offense (25) in 2020.
Staying Put
Allen Robinson (Chi, 28) — The Bears placed the franchise tag on Robinson, which will be worth about an $18 million next season. The Bears and Robinson will have until July 15 to potentially work out a long-term contract.
Fantasy Points: GM Ryan Pace and HC Matt Nagy could be on their last legs in Chicago next season and they couldn’t afford to lose their best offensive player in free agency. The Bears would have had one of the league’s worst receiving corps if A-Rob left this off-season, which would’ve been a terrible recipe since they already have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. The vast majority of franchises in the league would gladly take Robinson as their #1 WR because of his complete game as a perimeter receiver — he also ran 28.6% of his routes in the slot last season. A-Rob has been one of the league’s best receivers in recent seasons despite never playing with an above-average quarterback dating back to his days at Penn State. He succeeded once again last season despite playing with the likes of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles at quarterback. A-Rob posted 102/1250/6 receiving on 151 targets to finish as the WR13 with 16.4 FPG while playing 95% of the snaps in 16 games. He ranks behind just Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins with 2397 receiving yards the last two seasons, and he’s also seen 150+ targets in each of those campaigns (9.5 targets per game). Robinson is a seasoned veteran with seven seasons already under his belt, but he’ll turn 28 just in August. He’s a contested-catch freak with some of the strongest hands in the league with just six drops on a whopping 417 targets (1.4% drop rate) the last three seasons. A-Rob’s will once again be a fringe WR1 if his quarterback situation remains less than ideal, and he’d be a top-10 option if the Bears can somehow upgrade their quarterback room this off-season.
Chris Godwin (TB, 25) — The Buccaneers placed the franchise tag on Godwin, which will be worth about $15.8 million next season. The Bucs and Godwin will have until July 15 to potentially work out a long-term contract.
Fantasy Points: The Buccaneers, like most teams who win the Super Bowl, have plenty of difficult decisions to make this off-season as they look to become the first franchise to win consecutive Super Bowls since Tom Brady’s Patriots did it back in 2003-04. The Buccaneers have quickly become Brady’s franchise and they were never going to let Godwin slip away this off-season. The old Buccaneers regime refused to play Godwin over Adam Humphries in his first two seasons in the league, and he would’ve been one of the most coveted free agents (if he hit the market) two years later after getting his chance to play under Bruce Arians. He posted 86/1333/9 receiving in 14 games as a first-time, full-time starter last season playing with the gunslinger Jameis Winston last season. His numbers dropped off significantly last season because of injuries, more competition for targets, and Brady’s affinity to spread the ball around. Godwin finished with 65/840/7 receiving on 84 targets to finish as the WR15 with 15.9 FPG while playing 88% of the snaps in 12 games.
Godwin had an uncharacteristic nine drops last season (10.7%) with an additional seven drops in four postseason games after needing surgery on his index finger. Godwin came into the season with just four career drops through three seasons so last season could be just an anomaly. He also averaged just 12.9 YPR in his first season with Brady after averaging 15.1 YPR in his first three seasons with Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick — his aDOT also sat at a career-low 9.9 yards last season. Godwin has run basically two-thirds of his routes from the slot the last two seasons, but he’s versatile enough to play all over the formation as he did in his first two seasons in Tampa. Godwin should be a safe WR2 option next season with an ADP likely in the fourth round, but he won’t have nearly the upside as some of the receivers drafted around him. Antonio Brown is likely to take on a bigger role next season and O.J. Howard will return in the middle of the field to potentially tamp down Godwin’s target share, which sat at 19% last season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit, 25) — The Steelers and Smith-Schuster came to terms on a one-year, $8 million contract.
Fantasy Points: JuJu hit free agency for the first time at the tender age of 24 — he’ll turn 25 in late November — but he found an ice-cold market for WRs with the salary cap shrinking for the 2021 season. He decided to run it back for at least one more season with Ben Roethlisberger and the only franchise he’s ever known, turning down similar offers from the Chiefs and Ravens. Smith-Schuster became the youngest player to reach 2500 receiving yards after he posted a ridiculous 111/1426/7 receiving during his second season as the #2 WR behind Antonio Brown in 2018. Smith-Schuster posted a combined 139/1383/12 receiving in the two seasons because of shaky quarterback play and a nagging knee injury in 2019. He recorded 97/831/9 receiving on 128 targets last season to finish as the WR23 with 17.7 FPG while playing 84% of the snaps in 16 games. JuJu ran 84.9% of his routes from the slot and he averaged a horrific 8.6 YPR with Big Ben constantly throwing short — he averaged 13.7 YPR in his first three seasons.
Smith-Schuster will once again man the slot, and he’s shown a knack for getting open against both zone and man coverage in the middle of the field. He also has excellent size (6’1”, 215 pounds) to beat up on smaller defenders at the catch point and as a blocker when lined up inside. Diontae Johnson has jumped to the top of the pecking order and it may not be long until Chase Claypool catches and passes Smith-Schuster as the #2 option this season. All three WRs have the potential to be top-30 options once again since Big Ben has averaged 614.7 passes per season in his last three healthy campaigns. Smith-Schuster will be a high-floor, low-ceiling WR2/3 for PPR formats this season. JuJu will need Big Ben to build back his arm strength this off-season and he’ll need Matt Canada to call a more creative offense to unlock the upside he showed in 2017-18.
T.Y. Hilton (Ind, 32) — The Colts re-signed Hilton to a one-year, $10 million contract with $8 million in guaranteed money.
Fantasy Points: I thought there was a chance Hilton could head back to his hometown in Miami this off-season, but he opted to stay with the only NFL team he’s ever known in Indianapolis. Hilton is on the downside of his career, but he showed he has some gas left in the tank based on his strong finishing kick to last season after he developed some chemistry with Philip Rivers. Hilton ranked as the WR10 with 17.8 FPG in Weeks 12-16 after he averaged just 6.9 FPG in the first 11 weeks of the season. He finished with 56/762/5 receiving on 93 targets for 164.2 FP while playing 67% of the snaps in 15 games. Hilton was once a near lock to average around 16 yards per reception playing with Andre Luck to start his career, but he’s averaged just 12.5 YPR the last two seasons since entering his 30s while playing with Rivers and Jacoby Brissett.
He’ll be playing with his fourth different quarterback in as many seasons after the Colts traded for Carson Wentz this off-season. Hilton averaged 79.3 yards and 15.5 FP per game with Luck, and he’s averaging just 56.1 yards and 11.4 FP per game with all other quarterbacks. Hilton has become more of an intermediate receiver the last two seasons, but Wentz could give him new life as a downfield threat after playing with Rivers and Brissett the last two seasons. Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell are the future of the position for the Colts, but neither player is guaranteed to take over as the #1 WR in 2021. Hilton got more money than JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8 million) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6 million), which suggests the Colts still have big plans for him this season. Hilton’s value is going to hinge on Wentz’s performance, but he’ll at least be a lot more appealing 100+ picks into drafts this year as a WR4/5 option
Rashard Higgins (Cle, 27) — The Browns re-signed Higgins to a one-year contract with $2.38 million fully guaranteed.
Fantasy Points: Higgins once again excelled when he got the chance to run significant routes for the second time in three seasons. Odell Beckham’s season-ending ACL injury in Week 7 opened the door for Higgins to see significant time to end last season. Higgins posted 32/546/2 receiving on 46 targets for 11.0 FPG in nine games with OBJ out of the lineup — he finished with 37/599/4 on 52 targets in 13 games overall. Baker Mayfield and the Browns passers owned an excellent 119.2 quarterback rating when targeting Higgins last season. He averaged 16.2 YPR and 2.04 yards per route run last season despite his lack of size (6’1”, 198 pounds) and speed (4.64 40-time) as a perimeter receiver. It made a lot of sense for Higgins and the Browns to continue their relationship for at least another season. Higgins clearly has a strong connection with Mayfield, which he’s been able to demonstrate in 2018 and 2020. The Browns also couldn’t take OBJ’s health for granted this season despite a successful rehab so far.. Higgins is deserving of a #3 WR role and he’s shown he can fill in as the team’s #2 WR if OBJ’s ACL recovery is behind schedule.
Demarcus Robinson (KC, 27) — The Chiefs and Robinson reached terms on a one-year, $1.137 million contract for the second straight off-season.
Fantasy Points: Robinson didn’t have much of a market last season when he settled for a fully guaranteed one-year, $2.3 million from the Chiefs. He took even less money this off-season even after he reached new career-highs in his fifth season thanks to the Chiefs resting their key players in Week 17. Robinson finished the year with 45/466/3 receiving on 59 targets for 108.6 FP while playing 66% of the snaps in 16 games. Robinson averaged a measly .95 yards per route run last season despite playing with Patrick Mahomes in a big-play offense. Robinson is currently battling with Mecole Hardman to be the #2 WR behind Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs could still make another move this off-season since they actively looked at multiple free agent WRs. Robinson we’ll be just a fringe fantasy option, at best, if the Chiefs are down making moves at receiver.
Cam Sims (Was, 25) — Washington re-signed Sims to a one-year, $2.1 million contract.
Fantasy Points: Sims worked his way into Washington’s #2 WR role by the end of the 2020 season, which culminated in a career-best game (7/104 receiving) in the Wild Card Round against the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Sims had just two catches for 27 yards in eight games in his first two seasons as an undrafted WR out of Alabama in 2018. Sims finished his third season with 32/47/1 receiving on 49 targets for 86.2 FP in 16 games, and 81.3% of his fantasy production (70.1 FP) came in the final nine games. Sims is a big (6’5”, 220 pounds) physical perimeter receiver who is in Washington’s plans this season after a strong run at the end of last season. Washington added Curtis Samuel to its receiving crops in free agency, but Sims will be in the mix to be the team’s #3 WR this season.
Isaiah McKenzie (Buf, 28) — The Bills and McKenzie reached an agreement for the upcoming season. He’s coming off a career-best year in his fourth season with 30/282/5 receiving on 34 targets as a top backup in Buffalo, which included a three-TD performance when he was the DFS hero in the season finale. McKenzie will once again serve as the team’s #5 receiver, but he could have a bigger role if he takes over the return duties with Andre Roberts leaving for Houston in free agency.
Ray-Ray McCloud (Pit, 25) — The Steelers came to terms with RFA McCloud on a one-year deal. McCloud served as the team’s return man last season, and he added 20 catches for a miserable 77 yards (3.9 YPR) and 4/65 rushing. McCloud ran 50 of his 96 routes from the slot (52.1%) last season, with most of his touches coming at or behind the scrimmage on jet motions.
Cedrick Wilson (Dal, 26) — The Cowboys applied an original-round tender on restricted FA Wilson, which will be a $2.13 million cap hit. OC Kellen Moore used Wilson primarily as a gadget player behind Dallas’ big three at receiver. He threw for a touchdown pass and he had three carries to go along with 17/189/2 receiving as the team’s #4 WR.
Chad Beebe (Min, 27) — The Vikings re-signed Beebe to a one-year contract for the veteran minimum of $920K. Beebe is coming off a career-best 20/201/2 receiving on 30 targets last season He’s currently in the mix to play out of the slot in three-WR sets as the team’s slot receiver behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but the Vikings will look to add more receivers this off-season.
Zay Jones (LV, 26) — The Raiders re-signed Jones to a one-year contract. He had an uneventful first full season in the desert after Las Vegas traded for him in 2019 so it was a bit surprising to see both sides want to run it back in 2021. Zay posted a career-worst 14/154/1 receiving on 20 targets last season despite the struggles of rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. Jones, a 2017 second-round pick by the Bills, will once again serve in a reserve role for the Raiders. this season.
Noah Brown (Dal, 25) — The Cowboys re-signed Brown to a one-year contract. He played a career-high 228 offensive snaps and 217 special teams snaps last season, and he also set new bests as a receiver with 14/154/0 receiving on 24 targets. Brown was an intriguing big-bodied receiver (6’2”, 225 pounds) coming out of Ohio State in 2017, but he’ll once again be buried down the depth chart in Dallas’ loaded receiving room.
Mack Hollins (Mia, 28) — The Dolphins and Hollins reached terms on a one-year contract. Hollins has established himself as a special teams stud in his first four years in the league, and he got pressed into the lineup at the end of last season because of a number of WR injuries for the Dolphins. Hollins will go back to the bench as a perimeter backup for Miami’s offense this season.
Mike Thomas (Cin, 27) — The Bengals re-signed Thomas after he posted career-best numbers in his fifth season with 13/132/1 receiving in 14 games. He previously had just 10/144/0 receiving in his first four seasons between the Rams and Bengals, and he’ll be nothing more than a depth piece for this receiving corps this season.
Trent Sherfield (SF, 25) — The 49ers and Sherfield agreed to terms on a one-year contract. He hit the open market after the Cardinals non-tendered him as a restricted free agent, and the 49ers scooped up a division-rivals throwaway. Sherfield posted 19/210/1 receiving as a UDFA rookie in 2018, but he’s recorded a combined 9/130/0 over the last two seasons with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury.
Vyncint Smith (NYJ, 25) — The Jets re-signed restricted free agent Smith to a one-year contract. He appeared in just seven games with just one catch last season after he started the season on the injured reserve because of a core-muscle surgery in August.
JoJo Natson (Cle, 27) — The Browns re-signed Natson to a one-year contract. He appeared in just three games last season after tearing his ACL, and he’ll be competing for return duties next August. Natson hasn’t caught a pass since 2017 and he’ll be strictly a return specialist for the Browns if he makes the roster out of training camp.
C.J. Board (NYG, 28) — The Giants re-signed Board to a one-year contract after he totaled a career-best 11 catches for 101 yards in his fourth season. He’ll be in a battle for a roster spot in August.
