Let’s keep it real: it’s been a rough season for fantasy analysis on a week-to-week basis, and it’s been especially tough for the most part in DFS. There’s definitely more instability than usual, and it’s more of a week-to-week league than ever, which is saying something because there have been pockets over the last 8-10 years when it’s been pretty damn chaotic.
To deal with this, I’m narrowing down my recommendations even more, so here’s what I have for Week 11.
QUARTERBACKS
Justin Herbert (LAC, vs. NYJ - $6800 on DK and $8500 on FanDuel) - He’s the #2 value on board on both DK and FanDuel. The Jets play mostly zone coverage, and Keenan Allen kills zone, plus the Jets just put slot corner Brian Poole (who is actually solid) on IR. They’re also giving up a lot of production to TEs, which is promising for Hunter Henry. Gang Green also just released veteran CB Pierre Dessir this week and will start a rookie 5th rounder who’s played in only one game. The Jets are giving up the 4th-most FPG to opposing QBs (22.4), while also ranking bottom-5 in opposing passer rating (103.8) and passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.632). Over the last four weeks, QBs are completing 72.5% of their passes for 7.9 YPA and 303/2, plus in that span they are giving up a whopping 5 FPG to QBs rushing. No-brainer.
Taysom Hill (NO, vs. Atl - $4800 on DK and $4500 TE-Eligible on FanDuel) - Yeah, he will be chalky, but this inclusion has to be done. With the announcement that he will start and that Jameis Winston is almost completely out of the picture (for now), Hill shot up to being the #1 value on the QB board this week on both sites. As for FanDuel, he’s also considered a TE, which is dumb on their part, but whatever. Check out the rest of our DFS content this week for more insight there. But the bottom line with Hill is he will run, both by design and when plays break down, something that may happen a lot since he’s not an experienced starter. I think the Hill experience is odd, but I have to defer to Sean Payton, who forgot more about football than I know. Hill is Payton’s guy, so with a $4800 salary on DK, for example, I think his floor is delivering 4X value. That’s only if he plays the whole game or most of the game, but that sure seems to be what’s going to happen.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
Deshaun Watson (Hou, vs. NE - $6500 on DK and $7300 on FanDuel) - I don’t love, love Watson for DFS, but he’s a top-6 value on both sites, and with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray off the board, and with Josh Allen on a bye, we have fewer running QBs to choose from this week. Obviously, he would be looking way better if Stefon Gilmore missed the game, but he seems to be trending toward playing (but no lock). Still, the Patriots defense has given up 21+ FP by Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson in the last two weeks. Lamar is Lamar, but he ran for only 55/0, so he did most of his damage with his right arm. Indoors, without a dominant running game, Watson should be fine here. Per SIS, the Patriots run man-to-man at the highest percentage in the league, which will help boost Watson’s rushing potential.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Andy Dalton (Dal, at Min - $5300 on DK) - He’s not much of a value on FanDuel, so I’ll leave him off for that site. But on DK, he’s the 11th-best value. Keep in mind, though, my projection for him is conservative, since the guy’s coming back from a concussion and covid-19. So he’s risky, but who isn’t on the low-end this year? The Vikings defense is coming together well, and HC Mike Zimmer, as much as I rip him in general, is doing a good job on that side of the ball. But they still don’t have high-quality players outside of their safeties and one LB spot, and their pass rush is still mediocre. My main concern is Dalvin Cook running all over them and eating up the clock, but with the weapons that Dalton has at his disposal, hitting 3x value should be very, very doable.
Alex Smith (Was, at Cin - $5300 on DK and $6600 on FanDuel) - He’s the 7th-best value on both sites. This is where we are in 2020: actually recommending Alex Smith, whose career appeared to be over. It’s hardly over, as Smith is tied for third for the most pass attempts the last two week (87), and while his average depth of target is very low, he’s completing 72% of his passes with an 8.6 YPA, as some of his receivers are helping him after the catch. The Bengals over the last four weeks are giving up 308 passing yards a game the last four weeks, which bodes well, but Smith may actually get some TDs this week. He has only 1 TD on his last 87 attempts the last two weeks, but the Bengals have given up an incredible 14 TD passes in just their last four games, including a 5-TD game to Baker Mayfield of all people (and also 371/3 to Philip Rivers in that span). And all of a sudden, Smith has some decent contributors in the passing game outside of Terry McLaurin, namely the “Sims Brothers.”
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Patrick Mahomes (KC, at LV - $7900 on DK and $9200 on FanDuel) - He’s the #2 value on DK and the #4 value on FanDuel. He’s pricey, but thinking through this matchup late this week, and discussing on the Matchup Points Livestream, I have to agree with the notion that the Chiefs will come out throwing coming off the bye. HC Andy Reid is always great after a bye, and KC should be extra motivated since the Raiders handed them their only loss. The Raiders ran the ball 31 times with their RBs in that one, and the best way to get their running game out of the equation, is to build a big lead, so I think they will strive for that and succeed. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill went nuts in this matchup in Week 5, and now Sammy Watkins is returning. This could be another blowup game for Mahomes with like 350+ yards and 3-4 TDs.
RUNNING BACKS
Derrick Henry (Ten, at Bal - $8000 on DK and $8200 on FanDuel) - Henry might be sneaky this week coming off a quiet Week 10 and in Baltimore. But unless Lamar and the Ravens suddenly get rolling in the passing game, we know what’s coming: Henry is getting the ball. The Ravens are hardly an impenetrable wall against the run this year, and they’re giving up 5.5 YPC to RB the last four weeks. Most importantly, DE Calais Campbell and DT Brandon Williams were both listed as Doubtful on Friday, which is huge for Henry. There’s been a clear trend of Baltimore being considerably less effective against the run without Williams, so I think Henry will rush for 100+ yards. He’s probably not going to have a huge game with 150+ yards and multiple TDs, but that can’t be ruled out.
Damien Harris (NE, at Hou - $5700 on DK and $5800 on FanDuel) - He’s the #1 value on the board on FanDuel and the #2 on DK. Any RB is a riskier play on the Patriots compared to most teams, and he’s been dealing with multiple injuries (chest and back). But Harris is bringing it big time and has emerged as their offensive identity. He’s averaging 5.7 YPC the last four weeks, and he’s been above 5.0 YPC in five of his six games this season. He will need to score to have a big day, but he has as good of a chance to cross the stripe this week than any other week against the dreadful Texans run defense that has allowed 230+ rushing yards to three different teams this season and is currently giving up 29/171 rushing to RBs the last four weeks, good for 5.9 YPC allowed. I think Harris is a good bet to run for 125+ yards, so if he scores, you’re golden.
Duke Johnon (Hou, vs. NE - $54000 on DK and $6000 on FanDuel) - He’s not an amazing value on either site, but he is top-15 on both, and he'd be a better value if I had the confidence to give him a little more in the passing game in our projections, which is harder to do after last week’s 1 target, 0 catch game. The week before last, though, he did catch all 4 of his targets for 32 yards (good for more fantasy points than he had in Week 10) coming off the bench when David Johnson got concussed, so there is hope. When it comes to this backfield, Dookie owns it. He handled every single one of the Texans’ handoffs (14) and played on 54-of-57 snaps. The Patriots have been run on this year, and despite playing two poor running games the last to weeks in the Ravens and the Jets the last two weeks, they’re still giving up 5.0 YPC to RBs the last four weeks, and they’ve given up 6 rushing TDs the last four weeks to RBs as well. Last week was really bad, but he remained low this week for a major bell-cow, and the game should be a lot different indoors in Houston. There should be a couple of paths to strong production for Duke, who will come through if he scores or catches at least 2-3 balls.
Adrian Peterson (Det, at Car - $4000 on DK and $5100 on FanDuel) - He’s the #1 value on DK and the #2 on FanDuel, which is sickening for me to see as a D’Andre Swift owner. Anything can happen when you back a 35-year RB, like Kerryon Johnson or even Jonathan Williams stealing the production, but Peterson should get the ball here, and he did pop off a couple of nice runs last week, so he’s not slowing down. AD said on Friday that he was told that he “would get the ball a lot.” The matchup and situation is ideal, with Teddy Bridgewater a longshot the play, the Lions receivers all kinds of banged up, the Lion OL really coming on and blocking it up well for the run, and the Panthers being consistently vulnerable against the run. They just gave up 200+ rushing yards to the Bucs, and they’re giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. Peterson actually faced them last year as a Redskin, and he rushed only 13 times, but for 99 yards and a TD (90-yard TD run). He’s a good bet to score, and if he does he will likely deliver 15 or more PPR points.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
Dalvin Cook (Min, vs. Dal - $9000 on DK and $10500 on FanDuel) - He’s pricey as hell, but he’s the #3 value at RB for both sites. The Vikings are seven-point home favorites against a team with all kinds of issues, so we’re looking at another 30 touches for Dalvin, who had a whopping 33 touches in this matchup last year (including 7/86 receiving) en route to a 31-point PPR day. The Cowboys have been run on all year and are allowing 126.6 rushing yards per game to RBs on the season. In their last four games, they’re giving up 24/127 rushing, good for 5.4 YPC.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
LaMical Perine (NYJ, at LAC - $4400 on DK and $5400 on FanDuel) - He’s the #5 value at RB on DK and the #9 on FanDuel. I spoke with a Jets beat writer on Friday who wasn’t 100% convinced Perine would get the play he deserves, but that’s the expectation coming out of the bye. The writer’s skepticism was all about the HC being a nut job. Perine hasn’t done much yet, but his three-down skill set makes him intriguing IF they make a solid commitment to him. We are talking Adam Gase here, and they may want to evaluate Ty Johnson, but my guess is Perine is good for 15 touches this week and UDFA Salvon Ahmed put up 21/85/1 rushing against the Chargers last week and five different RBs have topped 10+ FP in the last three weeks against Los Angeles.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
None of note.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. NYJ - $7400 on DK and $8800 on FanDuel) - He’s a much better value on FanDuel and not much of a value on DK, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth paying up for. Back on 9/25, I was so impressed by Justin Herbert’s work with Allen in Herbert’s first game, that I recommended trading for Allen, but even having said that, I’m blown away by how good this duo has been. Allen had just 3/39 receiving last week, so he might be a little sneaky, yet Jakobi Meyers ripped the Jets for 12/169 receiving in the Jets’ last game, and they just put veteran slot corner Brian Poole (who is actually good) on IR. The Jets play a ton of zone, and Allen crushes zone, so I’m expecting it to be pitch-and-catch with Herbert to Allen this week.
Terry McLaurin (Was, at Cin - $6900 on DK and $7300 on FanDuel) - He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, but he’s top-7 on both sites. Also, do you need any analysis? Just use him. He will see some of the very solid William Jackson at CB, but the Bengals play sides and don’t match up their corners, so TM can be moved around to avoid him. He’s got 7 catches for 74 or more yards in four straight, and three different Steelers WRs posted 21+ FP against the Bengals last week, including #1 guy Diontae Johnson, who made 6/116/1 receiving look easy in Week 10.
Diontae Johnson (Pit, at Cin - $5900 on DK and $6300 on FanDuel) - He’s a better value on FanDuel (fourth-best), but even on DK, among all WRs priced $5900 or higher, he’s the second-best value behind McClaurin. As we’ve learned, Diontae this year either goes to the sideline with an injury, or he goes off, so he’s worth using this week, since he’s not on the injury report. With three Steelers WRs going off last week, Johnson once again led the way with 6/116/1 receiving on 11 targets (23.9% share) for 23.6 FP. He’s now seen double-digit targets and a 28% share in each of his five full games. He’s not quite as dangerous of a deep threat as MVS, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling went nuts in this matchup last week with 4/149/1 receiving.
CeeDee Lamb (Dal, at Min - $5000 on DK and $5800 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-10 value on both sites. The Vikings defense has improved overall, and their corners on the outside have been decent lately. But they’re still bad covering the slot, and Anthony Miller just missed a dramatic game-winning TD late in their game in Week 10. The week before, I loved Danny Amendola here and he had a nice 7/77 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup. On the season, the Vikings are still giving up the third-most points per game to slot WRs, so while Lamb will likely need to score to come through, I think he’s worth a shot at his affordable prices.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
None of note.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Willie Snead (Bal, at Cin - $4500 on DK) - He may be boom-or-bust, and Desmond King is a good slot corner, but it feels to me like Lamar Jackson is now resigned to focusing on throwing the ball between the numbers like he did last year, and that would explain how Snead has come out of nowhere to haul in 4+ catches in three straight games out of their Week 8 bye. He’s been good for 15+ FP in two of those three games, and he obviously went off last week with 5/64/2. The slot has been a good matchup against the Titans, who give up the second-most FPG to slot receivers.
Denzel Mims (NYJ, at Cin - $3300 on DK) - He’s a bad value on FanDuel, so this is DK only. He’s obviously dirt cheap, and I think he’s worth a look on the very, very low end coming out of the bye because he looked good going into the bye and has 42+ receiving yards in each of his first three games with a very strong 25.3% target share. QB Joe Flacco looks comfortable in the offense, and he did not pepper Jamison Crowder with targets in their last game, so Mims has a chance to collect surprising digits in garbage time. I do expect the Jets to get smoked, so if Mims doesn’t get it done, it’ll likely be because Breshad Perriman has another big game.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Tyreek Hill (KC, at LV - $8000 on DK and $8500 on FanDuel) - He’s not a good value on either site, but he’s on fire with 13/211/4 receiving in his last two games, and he ripped them for 8/108/1 receiving on 12 targets back in Week 5. As stated above, we think they will come out throwing in this one and that they won’t let up until the game is completely decided with a huge KC lead.
Chris Godwin (TB, at Cin - $5800 on DK and $7200 on FanDuel) - He’s not a great value on either site, and he’s also a little risky with so many weapons at Tom Brady’s disposal. It’s tough to know how the Rams will play the Bucs, but I’d have to think if they wanted to travel Jalen Ramsey, that they’d do so against Mike Evans. Godwin did look good last week and had a good game, and I think Godwin in the slot has the best chance to not see much of Ramsey, so this could easily be a Godwin game.
TIGHT ENDS
TJ Hockenson (Det, vs. Car - $4200 on DK and $6000 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-3 value on both site, and #1 on FanDuel. He was limited in practice again with his toe issue, which is worrisome, but I’ll take a shot because the Lions won’t have Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and D’Andre Swift, which probably represent over a 40% target share when all their players are healthy (Marvin Jones is also beat up). The Panthers have been giving to TEs, allowing six TEs to reach double-digit FP in the last five weeks. Over their last four games, they’re giving up 6/82 per game to TE, with 3 TDs, so everything (including his low salary) points to TJH being very much worth a try this week.
Mark Andrews (Bal, vs. Ten - $4900 on DK and $6500 on FanDuel) - He’s not a great value on either site (but top-12 on both) and the matchup isn’t particularly good on paper, since the Titans use three different guys to cover TEs and they’re all good cover guys. However, with Nick Boyle done for the season, Andrews is looking better these days and he did log his best performance in a month last week with 7/61 on a season-high 9 targets. Lamar Jackson right now is all about throwing the ball in the middle of the field (we’ll try again outside the numbers next year), so Andrews could start rolling now. He’s worth whatever risk he presents on DK at his low salary.
HIGHER-END GUYS I’M OKAY WITH
None of note.
BARGAIN BASEMENT GUYS
Logan Thomas (Was, vs. Cin - $3300 on DK and $5200 on FanDuel) - He’s the top value on DK and the sixth-best value on FanDuel. Thomas had a solid day last week with 4/66 on 6 targets, but his standing at TE was a lot better than “solid,” since he was the TE6 for the week. That was an example of the struggles at the position, and it makes Thomas at his dirt-cheap pricing more than viable. He has 40+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 and he’s consistently getting the ball, seeing at least four targets in every game this season. Finally, his matchup is excellent, as the Bengals give up the second-most FPG to TEs (16.4), including the second-most receiving yards to the position (64.8). In their last four games, they’re worse than that, giving up 20+ FPG to TEs, thanks mainly to the 5 TD they’ve given up to the position in their last four games.
Dalton Schultz (Dal, at Min - $3600 on DK and $5000 on FanDuel) - He’s a top-4 value on both sites, Schultz has been hanging in their last two games with Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci, and he’s hauled in 4+ catches in 6 of his 8 games. The Vikings defense has been improving, but they had allowed 12+ FP to TEs in three straight games before last week, and Jimmy Graham was open for a TD last week in the red zone but his QB Nick “Foils” couldn’t get him the ball. He’s never a lock, but 10+ PPR points seem likely here.
PRIMETIME GUYS I LIKE
Travis Kelce KC, at LV - $7300 on DK and $8000 on FanDuel) - He’s a way better value on FanDuel, keep in mind, but Kelce posted 8/108/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 5, and we expect them to come out throwing and to keep throwing until the game is iced. Kelce has crushed the Raiders dating back to last year, averaging over 20 FPG in his last three with 6.7/102 on average, good for 15+ YPR, and 3 TDs.
