Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. WAS ($7.5K DK | $7.9K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3% DK | 3-4% FD)
At the expense of Washington’s efficient Cover 3 from 2020, DC Jack Del Rio has flipped the script toward using a high rate of Cover 1. The WFT secondary has paid the price.
Washington is permitting the most FPs to entire opposing offenses (112.5), QBs (27.0), and the 2nd-most to WRs (46.3). Washington also utilizes Cover 4 at the fifth-highest rate.
The only justification I can come up with for Aaron Rodgers’ expected ownership between 2-3% is his pricing as the QB4 on DK and QB7 on FD. He’s worth every single penny of those cap dollars. This will be the first 2021 game where Rodgers will face a featured Cover 1. In every game where the opposing defense featured a Cover 1 last season, Rodgers led his offense to score at least 30 points, and they averaged 35 PPG.
The Bottom Line: Over the last three years for Rodgers against Cover 1, he’s posted the 6th-highest FPs/dropback at 0.51, a 106.5 passer rating (fifth), and a sparkling 34 TDs to only three INTs against. And, against Cover 4 over the last three campaigns, Mr. Rodgers ranks second-best with 0.40 FP/Db, made possible by an 11% increase in YPA, and 24% increase in air yards/attempt.
Matt Ryan, ATL at MIA ($5.7K DK | $7.3K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Matt Ryan has averaged 23.1 FPG over his last four games. Ryan connected for 342 passing yards in the United Kingdom without Calvin Ridley in Week 5. He worked with Kyle Pitts to generate his first statement performance of his rookie season — 9/119/1 line on 10 targets.
Ryan will face a defense that also just played across the pond, a Miami team that lost a heartbreaker to Jacksonville in Week 6. Fourth quarter decisions by the Dolphins’ coaching staff cost them that game. Miami features the second-highest rate of Cover 1. While his 0.40 FP/Rt vs. Cover 1 (15th-best) the last three seasons has slipped a bit from the prime stretch of his career, Ryan has still thrown 14 TDs vs. four INTs against Cover 1. After permitting Jacksonville to accumulate 396 total yards, the ‘Phins are now tolerating the second-most FPG to opposing offenses (107.6), 21.0 FPG to QBs overall (10th-most), 23.6 over the last four (third), and 29.5 over the last two (second).
The Bottom Line: Miami’s defensive issues began by having no answer to opposing RBs. The virus has gone uncontained, leading to every single skill position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) averaging top-five production overall, in the last four games, and/or the last two. Despite the shining opportunity for the Atlanta offense, the only Falcon the field is loving this week is Ridley. That’s nothing short of DFS profits staring at us adorned with a big red bow.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Daniel Jones, NYG vs. CAR ($5.4K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: Panthers -2.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: <5% DK | <1% FD)
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. ATL ($5.5K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Falcons -2.0 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Joe Burrow, CIN at BAL ($6.2K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: Ravens -6.0 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Taylor Heinicke, WAS at GB ($5.2K DK | $6.9K FD | Spread: Packers -7.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at MIA ($6.3K DK | $8.0K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Is $6.3K on DK and $8.0K on FD too much to pony up for Cordarrelle Patterson? Take a look at these ranks through six weeks:
His 37% touch rate when on the field is first among all RBs
Ranks third with 20.4 FPG
First in pure receiving FPG
First in FPs/touch
First in YPRR
And he’s accomplished it on only 13.8 touches/game — which ranks 32nd
And his 14% target share ranks fifth
He’s earned the money targets with otherworldly efficiency. Worried about the limited touches? For the first time this season, Patterson overtook Mike Davis in both carry share and team passing route percentage in Week 5.
The Bottom Line: Miami is giving up the second-most FPG to opposing offenses (107.6), fourth-most to RBs (29.4), and the second-most RZ touches (7.17). How is Patterson only expected to be rostered in 3% of lineups on both DK and FD?
Damien Harris, NE vs. NYJ ($5.7K DK | $6.8K FD | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
Is Damien Harris going to kill it for us in the passing game this week? No. Just so it’s been plainly stated, I’ve witnessed with my own eyes that Harris is a skilled receiver. He attended Madison Southern High School that happens to be right down the road from my home. He was something of a Kentucky state hero. He caught 52 passes at Alabama and, during his senior year, posted 1.22 YPRR — an entirely respectful number for a RB. Why the Patriots refuse to utilize those skills are beyond me. New England does a number of things that I would not. Some turn out great, others… not so much.
We will certainly take every FP we get, but Harris will not need the passing work this week. The Jets are delivering 32.8 FPG to RBs, the most in the NFL. And New York’s is the only defense permitting more RZ touches to RBs (7.6). The Patriots are currently 6.5-point home favorites.
New England also just defeated the Jets 25-6 in East Rutherford. A positive script is coming.
The Bottom Line: It’s likely that Harris is being devalued this week due to struggling in Week’s 3 and 4 against elite run defenses: New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Did we really expect Harris to have his way with them? Then he followed up those pedestrian numbers by being benched for fumbling in Week 5 at Houston. Let’s keep the conversation real, we need all hands on deck with six teams on a bye. And, far more important than what happened in Week 3, 4, and 5, Harris just posted 101 rushing yards and a TD against Dallas’ top-five run defense. With all of those data points in tow, it seems some Christmas gifts will be delivered early learning that Harris will only be owned in 6-7% of lineups.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Joe Mixon, CIN at BAL ($6.5K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: Ravens -6.0 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Antonio Gibson, WAS at GB ($5.9K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: Packers -7.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
James Conner, ARI vs. HOU ($5.6K DK | $6.5K FD | Spread: Cardinals -18.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <2% DK | 2-3% FD)
J.D. McKissic, WAS at GB ($5.0K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Packers -7.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Kenyan Drake, LV vs. PHI ($4.9K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: Raiders -2.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Sony Michel, LAR vs. PHI ($4.2K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: Rams -15.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN at BAL ($6.2K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 4-5%)
I covered all of the reasoning behind my belief that Ja’Marr Chase’s production is going to continue in Advanced Matchups. And we’ve yet to see the true ceiling of his potential. The Vegas money is currently favoring the Ravens by six points. While I may not agree with that expectation, if Baltimore does force Cincinnati into an early negative game script, Chase is going to be targeted more frequently than we’ve seen so far during his breakout rookie season.
Using the alignment percentages from the first six weeks as our guide, the numbers tell us that Chase will spend just under three-fourths of his total snaps outside of Marlon Humphrey’s coverage. Reps facing Anthony Everett and Tavon Young are going to fuel his receiving line. The factor that will determine the Bengals’ success in this spot is how well the Cincy O-line that has permitted the lowest QB pressure rate holds up against a Ravens’ defense that blitzes at the league’s highest rate.
The Bottom Line: Chase ranks first among all WRs this season with 0.97 FP/Rt and 4.61 yards/route run (YPRR) vs. Cover 1. Chase has collected 33% of his receptions, 34% of his yardage, and 40% of his TDs on only 22% of his routes. When facing Cover 6, he ranks fifth-best this season with 0.56 FP/Rt, fourth with 3.00 YPRR, and third with 17.0 yards/target (YPT). I keep my weekly decision-making process within a sterile environment. You could refer to it as simple, but the steps that I take to get me there are labyrinthine. Once I maneuver my way around the obstacles, the prime targets are made clear. Chase is a crystal example.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. ATL ($5.6K DK | $5.9K FD | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
In three games with Tua Tagovailoa leading the offense, Jaylen Waddle has averaged 18.3 FPG. Waddle has scored three TDs during his rookie campaign, all thrown by Tagovailoa, and the only three TD passes thrown by Tua this season. The Dirty Birds are permitting the 10th-most FPG to opposing WRs (40.3).
The Bottom Line: Keep in mind that, with six teams on a bye, if we want players with ownership south of 1%, we’ll need to dig through full-on punts. Just don’t expect to see those under 1%’ers within the GPP winning lineups. They will be populated by players with ownerships under 8-10%. Waddle is projected for ownership numbers between 6-7%.
Darnell Mooney, CHI at TB ($4.6K DK | $5.9K FD | ExpOwn: 7-8% DK | 2-3% FD)
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the money push Tampa Bay to two TD favorites by kickoff. The reigning Super Bowl roster facing a rookie QB. That’s far from an attack on Justin Fields. His game is not one that is simply installed for game managing purposes. He aggressively attacks downfield. When we account for the poor Chicago O-line, it’s understandable why a vertical offense has been slow to take off.
When Tampa Bay signed Richard Sherman, it threatened to remove a weekly target for QBs and receivers. With Sherman ruled out and the Bucs guaranteed to build an early, substantial lead, Fields and his receivers will be asked to air it out. Allen Robinson II is going to see his share, but he’ll also see plenty of Jamel Dean. That will align Darnell Mooney across from 2018 UDFA Dee Delaney.
The Bottom Line: Among 84 qualified outside CBs, Delaney ranks 61st with 1.46 yards allowed/coverage snap, 39th with 0.25 FPs/coverage snap, 71st with 0.51 air yards/coverage snap, and 56th with a 107.8 targeted passer rating. That 71st ranking in air yards/coverage snap is key. He is prone to the deep ball. And vertical routes happen to fall within Mooney’s wheelhouse. Mooney averaged 18.5 FPG in recent games against the Packers and Lions. Both rank within the top-10 in split safety schemes. In between those games, Mooney posted a dud (6.5) vs. the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks 30th in split safety shells. No defense uses a higher rate of split safety coverages than Tampa Bay.
Quez Watkins, PHI at LV ($3.9K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Las Vegas employs the highest rate of Cover 3 this season. During his career, Quez Watkins has a 72% boost to his FPs/route when facing a Cover 3. His 0.51 FPs/route would rank 12th, his 3.29 YPRR would land him fifth, and his 15.6 yards/target third if he qualified. IF you didn’t read advanced matchups, my write-up on Jalen Hurts details that he leads all QBs in passer rating (119.7), FP/Db (0.55), and YPA increase (46.2%) against Cover 3.
The Bottom Line: On only 16% of his career routes, Watkins has caught 30% of his receptions, and 30% of his yardage. If Hurts continues destroying Cover 3 this Sunday in the manner we’ve seen him do during his young career, this game could turn into a shootout. In that case, exposure to Watkins at under 3% ownership could pay off big.
Overlooked (Capped at <11% Expected Ownership)
Chris Godwin, TB vs. CHI ($5.9K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -12.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 10-11%)
*DeVante Parker, MIA vs. ATL ($5.0K DK *| $5.6K FD | Spread: Falcons -2.0 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 7-8%)**
*Brandin Cooks, HOU at ARI ($6.0K DK *| $6.5K FD | Spread: Cardinals -18.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 10-11%)**
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI vs. HOU ($7.7K DK | $8.0K FD | Spread: Cardinals -18.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
*Terry McLaurin, WAS at GB ($6.9K DK *| $7.2K FD | Spread: Packers -7.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)**
Antonio Brown, TB vs. WAS ($6.3K DK | $7.4K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -12.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
*Christian Kirk, ARI vs. HOU ($5.3K DK *| $6.2K FD | Spread: Cardinals -18.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)**
Jamison Crowder, NYJ at NE ($4.9K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: Patriots -6.5 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Darius Slayton, NYG vs. CAR ($4.0K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: Panthers -2.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Preston Williams, MIA vs. ATL ($3.1K DK | $5.2K FD | Spread: Falcons -2.0 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, NE vs. NYJ ($4.1K DK | $5.7K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Hunter Henry has clearly moved ahead of Jonnu Smith ($2.8K/$4.9K), running nearly twice as many routes — more than double since Week 2, seeing twice as many targets since Week 3, and double the target rate of Smith. What’s more, Henry has caught a TD in each of the last three games — 60% of the TDs Mac Jones has thrown during that time.
The Bottom Line: The Jets are permitting the 10th-most FPG to TEs (16.1), fourth-most over the last four games (20.7). The TE pool is extremely thin this week. Eliminating the chalk leaves us with extremely few options outside of the deepest of punts. If you can set aside some of your cap, Henry stands out with under 3% of the field expected to roster him in GPPs.
O.J. Howard, TB vs. CHI ($3.4K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
It’s tough to say if sub-1% anticipated ownership for O.J. Howard will stand now that Rob Gronkowski has been ruled out. If it doesn’t, it will rise a couple percentage points. All Tampa Bay receivers will run the risk of being shut down early if this game gets out of hand. However, with Antonio Brown also ruled out, perhaps some of those remaining targets will be directed at Howard.
The Bottom Line: Chicago has been an extremely difficult match for opposing TEs. Much of that is due to Roquan Smith. If we don’t want to roll the dice on finding alternative outlets to differentiate our lineups with one of the TEs with chalk ownership, you can do far worse than Howard. His usage last week on designed screens is promising since they will place a blocker between Howard and Smith.
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Kyle Pitts, MIA vs. ATL ($5.9K DK | $6.1K FD | Spread: Falcons -2.0 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Robert Tonyan, GB vs. WAS ($3.5K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: Packers -7.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Jonnu Smith, NE vs. NYJ ($2.8K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: Patriots -6.5 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
C.J. Uzomah, CIN at BAL ($3.0K DK | $5.2K FD | Spread: Ravens -6.0 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay Packers, GB vs. WAS ($3.3K DK | $4.1K FD | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
Carolina Panthers, CAR at NYG ($3.5K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
New York Giants, NYG vs. CAR ($2.5K DK | *$3.6K FD *| Spread: Panthers -2.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
*Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB vs. CHI ($4.0K DK *| $4.4K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -12.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)**
