Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. ARI ($5.9K DK | $6.8K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
During his NFL career, Baker Mayfield has connected on 25 TD passes with only seven INTs against Cover 1 (Man). He ranks 10th-best among all QBs with both 0.46 FPs/Route and a 97.3 passer rating. Don’t spend too much of your time worrying about the fact that the Cardinals have limited opposing QBs to the eighth-fewest FPG (16.2); take a look at those same numbers for the Chargers’ defense (seventh-fewest at 15.8). Despite the efficient limitations on QBs by the Los Angeles defense, consider that Mayfield posted 305 passing yards — bonus baby, two TDs, and 26.0 FPs (37% profit over floor).
The Bottom Line: This week stands out above the previous five in surprising, but welcomed, anticipated ownership numbers. A QB on an offense, favored by under five points, with 49-point implied total, and ownership numbers under 2%… yes, I’m buying. The fact that the Cardinals are using the exact scheme that made the aforementioned QB the first-overall pick in 2018, and has defined his career is simply the frosting.
Carson Wentz, IND vs. HOU ($5.4K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: Colts -10.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Are you kidding me? We were just witness to Carson Wentz collecting 402 passing yards, at a 71.4% clip, and 11.5 YPA against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Less than a week later, less than 2% of the population will take the time to roster him in a far more vanilla matchup. We can remove a Week 3 game where Wentz sprained both of his ankles, in the other four, he has averaged 20.6 FPG. Less than 2%?!?
The Bottom Line: If the thinking is that the 10-point spread will lead to Jonathan Taylor carrying the offense, that is a volatile approach. The Texans displayed improvements on both offense and defense (at least slightly) in Week 5 against the Patriots. And Davis Mills turned his expected script on its head. I have my doubts that Mills will do the same for a second-straight week, but I do think he will avoid repeating his outright disaster play from Week 4. That was the Buffalo defense. This is the Indianapolis defense that is allowing an average of 260.8 passing YPG and just permitted Lamar Jackson to throw for 442 yards and four TDs.
Overlooked (Owned Outside of the Top-5 QBs)
Justin Herbert, LAC at BAL ($7.3K DK | $8.0K FD | Spread: Ravens -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: 5-6%)
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Dak Prescott, DAL at NE ($7.1K DK | $8.1K FD | Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI ($7.2K DK | $7.7K FD | Spread: Packers -5.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Kirk Cousins, MIN at CAR ($6.2K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Derek Carr, LV at DEN ($5.6K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: Broncos -4.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. KC ($6.5K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
The one game we all want a piece of on the main slate is Kansas City at Washington. Oddly enough, the implied total dropped a point down to 54.5 at the time of writing this up. I already confidently invested at 55.5. And I would do it again. For Antonio Gibson, HC Ron Rivera recently passed along that he is at full health. That news made this decision upon learning of his sub-5% ownership on DraftKings (DK) an easy one. Kansas City is giving up 141.0 rushing YPG (fourth-most), 5.2 YPC (third), the second-highest rate of 20-plus yard runs, the highest rate of rushing first downs, and 1.80 TDs/game (the highest).
The Bottom Line: This game will post at least 70 total points. You need to dig into the WR depth chart to find skills receiving anything above partial playing time that don’t have compelling upside. If Rivera says Gibson is healthy in this spot, I am committed to banking on success.
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at NE ($7.1K DK | $8.3K FD | Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
Please note: With an entire writeup already devoted to Nick Chubb, news dropped he would miss Week 6. That also removed Kareem Hunt as one of my listed RB pivots.
The Patriots will certainly have their hands full in dealing with the top-two O-line of the Cowboys’. And few backfields boast a duo of talents to the level of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Vegas numbers certainly indicate that the money is scared away in investing funds against Bill Belichick in Foxboro. That might be the risk averse approach, but avoiding risk is not the optimal road toward GPP success. It doesn’t take an Einstein to see the potential for Elliott exposure with only 6-7 ownership.
The Bottom Line: New England has yet to oppose a ground game to the level they’ll face on Sunday afternoon. It’s a significant factor that will also benefit Dallas’ passing offense, preventing Belichick from providing his man-to-man cornerbacks with assistance. If I’m being honest, I have zero reservations using my GPP selections to go directly at Belichick… even in Foxboro. New England has played a cupcake schedule, only challenged by a Tom Brady-led offense that I am convinced — without a single shred of proof — that Belichick owns a personal library of practice footage from Brady’s days as a Patriot. Good luck, Bill. Dallas is about to kick that @ss on your home field, and Zeke is going to do much of that damage.
Overlooked (Capped at 10% Expected Ownership)
Dalvin Cook, MIN at CAR ($7.7K DK | $8.8K FD | Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 9-10%)
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. LV ($5.0K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: Broncos -4.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2% DK | <5% FD)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Khalil Herbert, CHI vs. GB ($4.6K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: Packers -5.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
*J.D. McKissic, WAS vs. KC ($4.8K DK *| $5.2K FD | Spread: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)**
Tony Pollard, DAL at NE ($5.6K DK | $6.0K FD | Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson, MIN at CAR ($8.0K DK | $7.9K FD | Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 7-8%)
Yes, 7-8% is higher than I usually feature in this column. But, I only do it due to a special set of circumstances that are calling for a big game, and still offering GPP utility. During his young career, Justin Jefferson is averaging 0.72 FPs/route (fourth-highest), leads all WRs with 3.91 YPRR, is second with 13.59 YPT, and ranks fourth with a 41% increase in deep (20-plus) targeting over average when facing Cover 1. Carolina does not lead the league in Cover 1 rate this season. But, after using a rate outside of the top-15 during the first two weeks, they lost rookie phenom Jaycee Horn mid-Week 3. DC Phil Snow immediately recognized that Horn was the key to pulling off his Cover 2-Cover 3 rotation without their 2021 first round budding super-stud. Over the last two games and two quarters, the Panthers are using Cover 1 at the seventh-highest rate.
The Bottom Line: If you haven’t read my work, it will not take very much of your time doing so to learn that I do not mess around with formality when it comes to employing the Minnesota passing offense in matchups facing featured Cover 1’s. NOBODY is going to be on Viking stacks this weekend. NOBODY! The entire premise could fall apart if Snow is planning to alter the formula to eliminate Cover 1. I can’t read the future, I can only read the tape/numbers/trends. And that trinity is telling me to invest in the Vikings trio of Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. HOU ($5.5K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: Colts -10.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: 5-6%)
I’m going to keep this recommendation very brief since I think the populus should already be on Michael Pittman Jr. this weekend. Since the general population is discounting his recent body of work, I want to make very clear to Fantasy Points’ premium subscribers the opportunity that oversight presents. Pittman has only played with Carson Wentz under center for five games. Remove the previous 14 games played with Philip Rivers that resulted in a single receiving TD from your memory. The previous four games are my focus. During that time, Wentz has targeted Pittman an average of 9.3 times/game. Those four games have returned 6.5 receptions, 84.8 yards, and 17.4 FPG. And let’s keep the expectations right there. At 17.4 FPG, we have profit numbers on a WR owned in just a hair over 5% of large-scale GPP lineups.
The Bottom Line: In four games this season, Terrance Mitchell is distributing 1.25 YPCS (46th among 91 qualified outside CBs), 0.27 FP/CS (50th), 0.44 AY/CS (51st), and a 93.8 passer rating (42nd). He will do half of his work on Pittman. For all of the reasons presented above in the Wentz write-up, I am anticipating that Pittman will benefit from the general belief that Houston will be blown out of the water by Indianapolis.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE vs. ARI ($3.5K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
You might begin to catch a pattern as you work through this week’s edition. I am fully invested in the Arizona-Cleveland matchup making a significant fantasy impact. One storyline that is particularly intriguing is matching up former Oklahoma QBs that took down back-to-back Heisman trophies. Both defenses have played well this season. But the Browns struggled during their 47-42 loss to the Chargers, and the Cardinals did the same against the Vikings in Week 2. We know top offenses can get points against them both. For this Donovan Peoples-Jones tout, It’s impossible to throw overwhelming supporting data on a wideout with under 500 career receiving yards and two TDs. This recommendation isn’t even based in half-part on the skill of DPJ. Before I ever trust WRs against a particular coverage, I must first fully trust his QB. And Baker Mayfield is one of my most trusted QBs against Cover 1. As in, seeing him in a Cover 1 matchup gets me genuinely excited.
The Bottom Line: In four-of-five ‘21 games, Peoples-Jones has run a route on at least 74% of Cleveland’s passing plays. DPJ has only run 22.8% of his career routes against Cover 1. But 35% of his receptions, 45% of his yardage, and both of his career TDs were collected on those reps. He’s simply been on the field too much this season, facing too high of a rate of the scheme he’s exploited, and catching targets from a QB that has obliterated the coverage for us not to include him in our GPP plans.
Christian Kirk, ARI at CLE ($5.0K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
I’ll begin by asking for you to select one of the two identical options that were presented in Advanced Matchups:
- The WR with a three-year, 34/450/3 combined line on 232 routes against the featured coverage of that week’s opponent, priced 36%/23% lower, and currently fed with a 15% target share (or)
- The WR with a three-year, 50/545/3 combined line on 286 routes against the featured coverage of that week’s opponent, priced 36%/23% higher, and currently fed with a 21% target share
Christian Kirk has collected 19% of his career receptions (second-highest), 21% of his receiving yardage (second), and 21% of his TDs (fourth) against Cover 4. And the Browns will be fielding the highest rate of Cover 4 (30%) in the NFL, that Kirk will see this season.
The Bottom Line: It’s entirely true that Kirk will be competing for targets with three other Cardinal wideouts. If we had volume guarantees, the ownership expectations for Kirk would not be at less than 1%. The very nature of hitting big in a GPP is built around rostering high-risk, high-upside individuals. Kirk checks every box.
Overlooked (Capped at <10% Expected Ownership)
*Tyreek Hill, KC at WAS ($8.5K DK *| $8.7K FD | Spread: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: 8-9%)**
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN at DET ($6.7K DK | $7.8K FD | Spread: Bengals -3.5 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: 8-9%)
Brandin Cooks, HOU at IND ($5.8K DK | $6.5K FD | Spread: Texans -10.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: 6-7%)
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*DeAndre Hopkins, ARI at CLE ($7.8K DK *| $7.7K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)**
Mike Williams, LAC at BAL ($8.1K DK | *$8.0K FD *| Spread: Ravens -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Marquise Brown, BAL vs. LAC ($5.9K DK | *$7.0K FD *| Spread: Ravens -2.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Adam Thielen, MIN at CAR ($5.8K DK | *$7.2K FD *| Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Rondale Moore, ARI at CLE ($4.6K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Rashard Higgins, CLE vs. ARI ($4.4K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
K.J. Osborn, MIN at CAR ($3.5K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: Vikings -2.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
*Adam Humphries, WAS vs. KC ($3.4K DK *| $5.0K FD | Spread: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)**
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, DAL at NE ($4.9K DK | $6.5K FD | Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
The biggest breakout at TE that nobody is aware has even taken place has been submitted by Dalton Schultz. The ‘Boys are still working at a frantic pace (seventh-highest at 67.6 plays/game), but the previously pass-heavy offense everyone knows has been running at the fourth-highest rate (45.3%). Perhaps it’s been at the expense of Michael Gallup’s injury, but Schultz’s emergence is here to stay. It’s very possible that, when Gallup makes his return, he’ll be met with a significant role reduction. Every single backfield touch is vital to Dallas’ very identity, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper combine to form one of the most elite WR duos in the NFL, and Schultz is a mismatch generator incarnate.
The Bottom Line: Schultz is currently being fed with a 19% target share (fourth-highest), 2.33 YPRR (third), and a 138.9 targeted passer rating (10th). He possesses the hand to make all of the contested catches look easy, the strength to brush off the physicality of LBs, and the size-and-speed metamorphosis to make DCs regret every decision that aligned a defensive back across from the former Stanford Cardinal. It blows my mind that he continues to evade DFS attention.
David Njoku, CLE vs. ARI ($3.7K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Wait a second, this no-name analyst is telling me to roster a TE that isn’t even his team’s starter? And he shares reps within a rotation of three TEs? And he’s basing that suggestion in pursuit after last week’s result? Correct on all three accounts. Regarding the first allegation, it’s entirely true that Austin Hooper is the starter. I also have zero expectation that Hooper will be unseated anytime soon, more like ever. On the second, David Njoku is not only collecting his reps behind Hooper, Harrison Bryant is going to take the field for his typical 8-10 route workload. The Cardinals will not be a stylistic match for Hooper’s game. While Bryant has been excellent against Cover 1, he has been an afterthought the last two weeks. On a total of 18 routes (21% of TE routes the last two weeks), he’s been targeted on 13% of them. Hooper has run 38% of routes, collecting 25% of the Browns’ TE targets. But Njoku leads team TEs with 41% of routes, 63% of targets.
The Bottom Line: Why do we even care? Njoku ranks 12th-best among all TEs over the last three seasons with 0.41 FPs/route against Cover 1. He ranks 10th with 1.85 YPRR and leads all TEs with 11.21 YPT. On 26% of routes during that time against that scheme, he pulled in 26% of his receptions, 35% of yards, and 43% of his total TDs. And the Cardinals use the 10th-highest rate of man coverage.
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*Darren Waller, LV at DEN ($6.6K DK *| $7.0K FD | Spread: Broncos -4.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)**
Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS vs. KC ($3.0K DK | *$5.0K FD *| Spread: Chiefs -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Mo Alie-Cox, IND vs. HOU ($3.1K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: Colts -10.0 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Darrell Daniels, ARI at CLE ($2.5K DK | $4.0K FD | Spread: Browns -3.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay Packers, GB at CHI ($3.6K DK | $4.2K FD | Spread: Packers -5.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Dallas Cowboys, DAL at NE ($3.2K DK | $4.1K FD | Spread: Cowboys -3.5 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Los Angeles Rams, LAR at NYG ($4.7K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: Rams -10.0 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN at DET ($3.4K DK | $4.5K FD | Spread: Bengals -3.5 | O/U: 46.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
