Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, LV vs. CHI ($6.1K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Raiders -5.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
It appears I have no choice but to take the initiative to lead the Show Respect to Derek Carr campaign. Prior to last Monday night, Carr collected the three-point bonus for 300 passing yards in each of his last six healthy starts, averaging 373 passing YPG. He’s also posted at least two TDs in seven-of-eight healthy starts — I’m mentioning healthy since he left Week 15 after the first quarter last season. Carr ranks 13th-best over the last three seasons with 0.34 FP/Rt vs. Cover 6. The Bears utilize the second-highest rate of Cover 6 this season. He will also be heading back home where he’s averaged 411 passing yards and 23.8 FPG in 2021.
The Bottom Line: As a whole, I don’t believe that Chicago’s defense is quite as bad as some of their metrics. But the secondary is easily their most vulnerable unit. Josh Jacobs is just a hair from ranking very last among all RBs in YPC (3.22). The Las Vegas O-line is terrible. But Carr has been game to transcend protection issues. Jacobs has not. The Raiders are favored at home, face a rookie QB, and will need to get it done through the air to take the win. And nobody, other than me, will be on the Raiders.
Some LV double stacks could result in those lineups standing unique to the entire field. If you don’t understand the implications of that statement, please do not put too much money on the line in DFS until you get a better grip on the inner workings of tournament play. Everyone should be investing in at least two weekly entries into the milly makers on at least one platform. But you’d be more likely to break a heroin habit after a year-long binge than profiting from entries tossed blindly into the wind.
Sam Darnold, CAR vs. PHI ($6.6K DK | $7.6K FD | Spread: Panthers -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Believe it or not, Sam Darnold is pacing all players with five rushing TDs. And those scores are almost solely fueling his 8.1 pure rushing FPG (second-most) since Carolina has played so well that Darnold hasn’t been forced to tap into his rushing potential. Darnold is a much better athlete than most might realize. The pressure on him to shake all of the cruel nicknames he picked up while playing for the Jets must be a heavy burden to bear. When his confidence fully returns, expect to see him eat up a chunk of ground yards on a weekly basis. The Eagles are undergoing a mini-crisis in run defense since losing Brandon Graham. They have given up 33% more rushing yards over the last two weeks, compared to the two weeks prior. If Darnold feels the need, we could see a season-high in pure rushing FPs this week. Oh yeah, Darnold also possesses plenty of talent in his right arm.
The Bottom Line: The way D.J. Moore is playing, no corner on Philadelphia’s roster can contain him. He’s attacking all levels of the field. He’s finding all of the vulnerable holes in zones. And Darnold is looking his way first on every dropback. That also means Robby Anderson is a sleeping giant. Anderson is not someone we should trust this week since the Eagles are so stingy with the long ball. But the potential return of Christian McCaffrey (though he is doubtful) would make expectations for south of 5% ownership of Darnold look silly.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Jared Goff, DET at MIN ($5.3K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: Vikings -10.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3% DK | <1% FD)
Jalen Hurts, PHI at CAR ($7.0K DK | *$8.1K FD *| Spread: Panthers -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs. NO ($5.9K DK | $7.3K FD | Spread: Saints -2.5 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Jacoby Brissett, MIA at TB ($5.2K DK | $6.3K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -9.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
*Drew Lock, DEN at PIT ($4.9K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: Broncos -1.0 | O/U: 39.5 | ExpOwn: <1%) *Check status of Teddy Bridgewater (concussion)
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt, CLE at LAC ($5.8K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: Browns -2.5 | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3% DK | 1-2% FD)
Over the last three games, Kareem Hunt has touched the ball 49 times compared to 56 for Nick Chubb. Health permitting, Chubb will always be the first to get his share on the ground. But, after Chubb showed out with his receiving at the end of last season, it’s clear that Hunt is the targeting choice for Baker Mayfield. When we see Cleveland facing an easy win and against a run defense that we expect them to smash (i.e., Week 2 vs. Houston), it’s very difficult to trust Hunt will see enough targets to reach value. When the Browns are up against a stout run defense, however, that is the precise time when Hunt could be peppered with targets (i.e., Week 3 vs. Chicago).
The Bottom Line: This is not one of those weeks, at least not exactly. The Chargers are decent in run defense. The true strength of their defense is in defending the pass. I do like the higher rate of Cover 1 matching up with Mayfield’s abilities. But the entire defense should be healthy this week for LAC. Now that Chris Harris Jr. is healthier, we may see less Cover 1 and more exotic looks from Los Angeles. If so, searching for gimmicks will cease. Cleveland will need to capture the victory by grinding on the ground, mixed with underneath targeting. Both concepts benefit Hunt.
J.D. McKissic, WAS vs. NO ($5.0K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: Saints -2.5 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
The Logan Thomas injury is going to open up opportunities for J.D. McKissic. You simply cannot replace his receiving ability with the next guy on the depth chart. In addition, some concerning reports have been tossed around concerning the health of Antonio Gibson. Whether Gibson is dealing with some level of a stress fracture in his shin or not, McKissic already has an established role as the up-tempo specialist. He scored the go-ahead points last week on a 30-yard strike from Taylor Heinicke in a game where he was the second-most targeted player.
The Bottom Line: The touches between Gibson and McKissic were split 16-to-12 in favor of Gibson. New Orleans is not in the business of tossing around unearned FPG to RBs (eighth-fewest at 19.5 FPG). That stated, only four teams have apportioned a higher percentage of overall FPG allowed to receiving production (59%). That is as key of a stat pointing toward a nice game for J.D. as it gets. I’ll be on him and, if you follow me, we’ll have the ballpark to ourselves.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Dalvin Cook, MIN at DET ($8.4K DK | *$9.0K FD *| Spread: Vikings -10.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)* **Check status (ankle)
Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. PHI ($6.0K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: Panthers -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Trey Sermon, SF at ARI ($5.0K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: Cardinals -5.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%) *Check status of Elijah Mitchell (shoulder)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at CAR ($4.9K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Panthers -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Alexander Mattison MIN vs. DET ($5.5K DK | $6.5K FD | Spread: Vikings -10.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Khalil Herbert, CHI at LV ($4.0K DK | $5.2K FD | Spread: Raiders -5.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. NO ($7.4K DK | $7.4K FD | Spread: Saints -2.5 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Terry McLaurin requires no introduction. He ranks fifth in scoring at 21.1 FPG. He also ranks 10th with 9.5 targets/game. In the game where Logan Thomas was injured early, his targeting increased by 23%. For all of their strengths, New Orleans is giving up the ninth-most FPG to WR units. As it happens, F1 McLaurin was a former Ohio State teammate with the individual who will work across from him on a bit under half of his reps: Marshon Lattimore.
The Bottom Line: Lattimore has been wearing a club over his hand since having thumb surgery. Perhaps related to that surgery, he’s been planted on the right side of the field. We have little in the way of concern on a shadow assignment. Even if McLaurin were to be shadowed by Lattimore, I’m still not concerned. Lattimore ranks 57th out 84 qualified outside corners this season in FPs allowed/coverage snap. And Scary Terry is going to be owned in less than 4% of DraftKings lineups.
Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. DEN ($6.5K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: Steelers -1.0 | O/U: 39.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
The ownership numbers on Diontae Johnson make no sense at all. He is seventh in scoring and leads all WRs with 11.7 targets/game. He has at least a 32% target share in every game played. Patrick Surtain II is banged up but, even if he plays, he will kick inside as the dime with Ronald Darby returning from IR due to a hamstring injury. Denver’s defense has been tremendous this season. But they have permitted the 17th-most FPG to WRs. Darby ranks 61st out of 84 qualified outside corners in FPs allowed/coverage snap.
The Bottom Line: How Diontae is only going to be owned in less than 5% of lineups is a mystery. Nothing Ben Roethlisberger has done this season is satisfying. And I am not a fan of peppering one talented wideout, while leaving another with far superior athleticism (Chase Claypool) left settling for scraps. It doesn’t really matter what I like. It matters that Johnson is getting all of the looks.
Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. GB ($5.3K DK | $6.3K FD | Spread: Packers -3.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
This is another simple situation. When a team is facing the Packers, if news drops that Jaire Alexander is not a part of the equation, they will set out to attack his vacant area of the field. Week 5. Visiting Cincinnati. No Jaire Alexander. I want exposure. And that opinion stands even with Tee Higgins set to return this week. We already know the Bengals will need to pass to keep up with the Packers’ offense.
The Bottom Line: In three straight games, Boyd has received at least a 31% target share. That includes Week 2 when Higgins was in the mix. By the way, Alexander will be replaced in the lineup by Chandon Sullivan. And Sullivan will be tasked with Boyd’s coverage. He ranks 36th out of 41 qualified slot CBs in FPs allowed/coverage snap. Boyd is going to be owned in 3-4% of lineups, and Joe Burrow is going to go right after Sullivan.
Hunter Renfrow, LV vs. CHI ($4.9K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: Raiders -5.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
The Bears feature the second-highest rate of Cover 6 and the 13th-highest rate of Cover 2. Hunter Renfrow ranks just behind Davante Adams at 19th in FPs/route (FP/Rt) against Cover 6 over the last three seasons. But the real magnet is that he ranks third-best in FP/Rt vs. Cover 2. On Sunday, it’ll be the responsibility of Duke Shelley to guard Renfrow. He ranks 31st out of 41 qualified slot CBs in FPs allowed/coverage snap. But nobody is going to be on Renfrow, estimated to be owned in only 1-2% of lineups.
The Bottom Line: All factors are pointing to Renfrow providing value. The only detractor is game script. Still, it’s not as if Josh Jacobs has provided evidence toward seeing him carry the offense. The Raiders are going to attack the weakest area of Chicago’s defense. That is the secondary. Renfrow is going to eat.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. DET ($7.7K DK *| $8.0K FD | Spread: Vikings -10.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)**
Allen Robinson II, CHI at LV ($5.5K DK | $6.1K FD | Spread: Raiders -5.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
A.J. Green, ARI vs. SF ($5.1K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Packers -3.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
DeVante Parker, MIA at TB ($5.4K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -9.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Jaylen Waddle, MIA at TB ($4.8K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -9.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 1-2% DK | <1% FD)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Henry Ruggs III, LV vs. CHI ($5.6K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: Raiders -5.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Kadarius Toney, NYG at DAL ($4.0K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: Cowboys -7.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Randall Cobb, GB at CIN ($4.0K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: Packers -3.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Deonte Harris, NO at WAS ($4.1K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: Saints -2.5 | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Mohamed Sanu, SF at ARI ($3.4K DK | $4.7K FD | Spread: Cardinals -5.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. NYG ($4.4K DK | $6.2K FD | Spread: Cowboys -7.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: 5-6% DK | 2-3% FD)
This is a game that has the potential to reach upwards of 70 combined points. And neither team is threatened to have a part of their offense eliminated. Every avenue of attack will be on the table. Enter Dalton Schultz. His rate of team passing routes over the last three weeks (50%, 63%, and 76%) has risen in perfect 13% increments. And his target share has spiked from 7% in Week 2, up to 28% in Week 3, and finally to 37% last week. Blake Jarwin is now the odd-man out of the TE1 competition.
The Bottom Line: Schultz is producing 2.16 YPRR (second-best) and a 144.3 targeted passer rating (fourth-best). The Cowboys will need every angle available to counter a suddenly explosive Giants’ offense. Schultz is one of the breakout TEs of ‘21, yet we can still roster him with manageable pricing.
Noah Fant, DEN at PIT ($4.9K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: Broncos -1.0 | O/U: 39.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Noah Fant ranks fifth-best with 0.46 FP/Rt, ninth-best with 2.14 YPRR, and sixth-best among 66 qualified TEs with a 24% target rate when facing a Cover 3 during his career. On 24% of career snaps vs. the three-high scheme, Fant has generated 31% of his receptions, 34% of his yardage, and 38% of TDs. Fant also collected 18.7 FPs against these same Steelers in Week 2 last season.
The Bottom Line: A perfect storm of factors would’ve come together if Teddy Bridgewater was unable to play in Week 5. Bridgewater managed to clear the concussion protocol, so dreams of Drew Lock against a high-rate of Cover 3 from Pittsburgh aren't happening. But Fant is still too efficient against the scheme to eliminate him from consideration. In fact, Fant is the only Bronco I will look to roster this week.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
T.J. Hockenson, DET at MIN ($4.9K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: Vikings -10.0 | O/U: 49.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%) *Check status (questionable - knee)
Cameron Brate, TB vs. MIA ($3.3K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: Buccaneers -9.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Zach Ertz, PHI at CAR ($3.4K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: Panthers -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
C.J. Uzomah, CIN vs. GB ($3.0K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: Packers -3.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC vs. CLE ($2.7K DK | $3.7K FD | Spread: Browns -2.5 | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Denver Broncos, DEN vs. PIT ($4.2K DK | $4.4K FD | Spread: Broncos -1.0 | O/U: 39.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*Tennessee Titans, TEN at JAX ($3.8K DK *| $4.2K FD | Spread: Titans -4.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)**
Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Cleveland Browns, CLE at LAC ($2.7K DK | $4.1K FD | Spread: Browns -2.5 | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
