Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Devin White.
Was @ Atl
Targets:
Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — After an opening week dud, Jarrett has back-to-back games with 4 tackles. He also added a sack last week. Washington isn’t a strong opponent for DL production, but Jarrett is the kind of DT you should start each week. He also has some pass rush upside in this one.
Kendall Fuller (CB, Was) — Some CBs just know how to find the football and Fuller is one of those. Every year, he consistently puts up good tackle numbers and this year is no different. Through three games, Fuller has 5, 8, and 10 tackles. Atlanta gives up the 4th-most FPG to DBs this season.
Chase Young (DE, Was) — Young hasn't had the start we were hoping for and hasn’t been playing well, but he’s playing a ton of snaps and is bound to break out soon. And “soon” could be this week, as the Falcons are a top-5 team for allowing fantasy production to DLs, giving up 6 sacks in three games.
Avoids:
Jon Bostic (LB, Was) — While Cole Holcomb remains the every-down LB, rookie Jamin Davis (52%) has worked his way into a legitimate timeshare with Bostic (49%). We knew this was coming, it was just a matter of when. And "when" is now. Davis isn’t startable yet…but Bostic’s days of being reliable might be behind him.
Injuries:
OUT
DT, Marlon Davidson - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DT, Matt Ioannidis - knee
Hou @ Buf
Targets:
Greg Rousseau (DE, Buf) — Rousseau has been more active on the D-line than expected. They threw him right into the fire and he's been effective. Playing around 60%, Rousseau has 9 tackles and 2 sacks in his last two games. He also has a great matchup this week, playing against a Houston team that runs the ball the 6th-most in the league. Buffalo is favored by a touchdown, so expect some late-game sack potential.
Kamu Grugier-Hill (LB, Hou) — With Zach Cunningham out this week, Grugier-Hill should get the nod to fill in at ILB. He might not play the whole game, but he’s an emergency fill in that I like in the LB3-range. Buffalo’s offense is 4th in pace of play and might lean on the run more than usual if they can establish a healthy lead.
Jaquan Johnson (S, Buf) — With Jordan Poyer out (ankle), Johnson is likely to step in at safety. This could be a lucrative spot at home in front of a generous stat crew, but I’m only comfortable using him in leagues that start 4 DBs. Johnson may be in a rotation, which is risky. But he has a chance to post 6-8 tackles from out of nowhere.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
S, Jordan Poyer - ankle
LB, Zach Cunningham - COVID list
QUESTIONABLE
CB, Terrance Mitchell - concussion, illness
CB, Taron Johnson - groin
DE, Efe Obada - ankle
Det @ Chi
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Tracy Walker (S, Det) — Awesome. Walker was part of a safety rotation again. We thought he was past that after last year, but nope. So, that's cool. I guess Walker is going to frustrate us all year. I'd keep him as a DB3, but that's about it.
Injuries:
OUT
DE, Trey Flowers - shoulder, knee
DOUBTFUL
S, Tashaun Gipson - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
DE, Michael Brokers - shoulder
OLB, Romeo Okwara - shoulder
OLB, Khalil Mack - foot
Car @ Dal
Targets:
Micah Parsons (LB, Dal) — Parsons is shining as an EDGE. He had 4 tackles and a sack on a 67% snap share last week as his usage and deployment continues to expand. Considering that four of Dallas’ DEs are either out or questionable, Parsons should be in line for a large batch of snaps. Too bad he's likely an LB in your league as those numbers aren't LB-friendly. But if you can use him as an EDGE or an LB2/LB3 in big-play leagues, do it.
Avoids:
Jaylon Smith (LB, Dal) — Don’t be dismayed by Smith's 4 solos in Week Three. He played 93%, it's just that his defense only played 54 snaps. Only one Dallas defender had more than 4 tackles, and they had 5. That was Jayron Kearse, filling in for Donovan Wilson. But this may be another slow matchup for Smith, as Carolina ranks 30th in FPG to LBs. Expect 4-6 tackles this week and be pleasantly surprised if he surpasses that.
Injuries:
OUT
S, Donovan Wilson - groin
DE, Carlos Watkins - knee
DE, Dorrance Armstrong - ankle
DOUBTFUL
DE, Yetur Gross-Matos - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DE, Randy Gregory - knee
Ind @ Mia
Targets:
Jerome Baker (LB, Mia) — Baker’s fantasy value waxes and wanes to the chagrin of those who roster him. But when he’s got a good matchup, he usually comes through. Last week in a good matchup, Baker recorded 8 tackles (5 solo), whereas the week before he only rustled up 3 tackles. This week, he should be waxing poetically all over this Indy offense that allows the 7th-most FP to LBs so far.
Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins is having another strong season anchoring the middle of this strong Miami run defense. He has 11 tackles and a sack in his last two games. This week, he faces an Indy team down multiple players, including All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. Advantage: Wilkins.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
S, Khari Willis - groin, ankle
DE, Kwity Paye - hamstring
CB, Rock Ya-Sin - ankle
Cle @ Min
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (LB, Cle) — This LB group is a mess for fantasy without Anthony Walker. No LB played more than 67% in Week Three. It's encouraging to see Owusu-Koramoah get up to 51%. He had 4 tackles and a sack. But that's more like DL production, not LB production. So while I like JOK for dynasty, I’d need to see this continue for a few more weeks before I’m comfortable firing him up. Plus, the Vikings produce the 5th-fewest tackles to LBs.
Injuries:
OUT
CB, Greg Newsome II - calf
QUESTIONABLE
LB, Sione Takitaki - Hamstring
LB, Anthony Barr - knee
DT, Michael Pierce - elbow, shoulder
CB, Kris Boyd - hamstring
NYG @ NO
Targets:
Cameron Jordan (DE, NO) — Jordan was rested early in a blowout win for Week One, then had a strong Week Two (6 tackles). Last week’s 3-tackle effort might make you hesitate on firing him up this week, but he played 90% and had 3 QB hits. The snaps and talent are there, he just needs a good matchup. Good matchup, you say? How about a Giants O-line that has surrendered 5 sacks, 10 TFL, and a forced fumble to DLs through three games?
Avoids:
Zack Baun (LB, NO) — With Pete Werner (49%) back, Baun (10%) took a backseat in this LB rotation. His limited day in the sun was fun, but without clear evidence to suggest otherwise, we should assume Baun is back to being the third LB here.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
LB, Tae Crowder - hamstring
Ten @ NYJ
Targets:
C.J. Mosley (LB, NYJ) — Mosley has had two strong games in a row and now gets the best matchup of the week. Tennessee continues to be a gold mine for LB tackles and DL tackles, so Quinnen Williams is also a good play this week.
Quinnen Williams (DE, NYJ) — It was nice to see Williams flex some in Week Three. He had 4 tackles and 2 sacks. He had a slow Week Two after recording 3 tackles in Week One. Williams is primed for production as the Titans’ run-heavy offense creates a top-5 amount of DL production. And with the Titans down their top two WRs, they could lean even more on their RBs and mobile QB this week.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
CB, Caleb Farley - shoulder
OLB, Bud Dupree - knee
S, Marcus Maye - ankle
KC @ Phi
Targets:
Daniel Sorensen (S, KC) — Keep firing up Sorensen as if he was your DB1. Because, well, he is. Sorensen played out of position in Week One to help cover for Tyrann Mathieu's absence. The past two weeks, Sorensen has 17 tackles in his regular position in the secondary. He also has a good matchup against a Philly unit producing the 9th-most fantasy production to DBs.
Avoids:
Alex Singleton (LB, Phi) — Singleton had another double-digit tackle game, but again couldn't get more solos than assists. He's also still not playing every snap. He and Eric Wilson are 60-80% players, while T.J. Edwards (40%) rotates in as well. Between his depressed (and depressing, amirite?) snap count and the KC offense being below average for LBs, it’s tough to expect more than 6-8 tackles this week, and likely another poor solo-to-assist ratio.
Injuries:
OUT
CB, Rashad Fenton - concussion
QUESTIONABLE
DE, Frank Clark - hamstring
CB, Charvarius Ward - quadricep
Ari @ LAR
Targets:
Jordan Hicks (LB, Ari) — Hicks is remaining Arizona’s every-down LB. His production can't be ignored. Hicks posted 12 tackles (7 solo), a sack, and a forced fumble in Week Three. He does have the worst matchup of the week though, as the Rams produce the fewest FPG to LBs so far.
Kenny Young (LB, LAR) — Young posted 10 tackles (8 solo) in Week Three and is on pace for weekly double-digit tackles through 2-1/2 games. He was ejected last week and had 5 tackles before he left. The Cardinals are an average matchup for LBs.
Avoids:
Isaiah Simmons (LB, Ari) — This might be a slow week for Simmons. As an 80% player, he’ll be more susceptible to bad matchups than Jordan Hicks. And this is as bad as it gets. The Rams are 32nd in FPG to LBs, and considering that both offenses are in the bottom-10 of offensive pace, this could be one of these 3-4 tackle weeks for Simmons. He always carries big-play upside, but that’s hard to trust.
Injuries:
None of note.
Sea @ SF
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Darrell Taylor (DE, Sea) — Taylor had an impact game in Week Three: 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble. But he accomplished this on just a 49% snap share. He has yet to play more than half of a game, making his Week Three production look more like an outlier, not a breakout game. He also has a brutal matchup as LT Trent Williams and the 49ers are the second-stingiest opponents for DLs. They’ve allowed just a half-sack to a DL so far this season.
Injuries:
OUT
CB, K'waun Williams - calf
DOUBTFUL
CB, Josh Norman - chest
QUESTIONABLE
DE, Benson Mayowa - neck
DE, Alton Robinson - knee
DT, Javon Kinlaw - questionable
Bal @ Den
Targets:
Odafe Oweh (OLB, Bal) — Oweh has been producing and holding a high snap share on the edge. He's got 9 tackles through three games, as well as 1 sack, 1 FF/FR combo, and 3 TFL. Denver is the slowest moving offense in the league, but you can still plug Oweh into your EDGE2/DL3 slot based on his usage and talent. His usage will likely be soild this week, as DE Derek Wolfe is out.
Patrick Surtain II (CB, Den) — Yes, please keep throwing at Surtain. The stud rookie corner has 9 tackles, an INT, and 2 PD in his two starts. Not all rookie corners have “rookie corner rule” upside, but Surtain has the goods to pull it off. He should likely continue to get tested in a matchup that is expected to be close.
Alexander Johnson (LB, Den) — I still see signs of hope for Johnson. His 5 tackles in WeekThree were the most of any Denver defender (Pat Surtain also had 5). Johnson came through for us with his 2 sacks, but now that they're not playing the Jets and the Jaguars, this defense should be on the field long enough to see some significant production. Baltimore’s potent and run-heavy offense produces the 9th-most FPG to LBs, including 24 tackles per game.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DE, Derek Wolfe - back, hip
QUESTIONABLE
CB, Anthony Averett - ankle
OLB, Pernell McPhee - shoulder
S, Geno Stone - thigh
CB, Tavon Young - knee
S, DeShon Elliott - quadricep
DE, Shelby Harris - wrist, illness
Pit @ GB
Targets:
Adrian Amos (S, GB) — Amos had a mediocre game by his standards in Week Three: 5 solos. That’s a strong floor for a player who was posting 9 tackles a game before that. He has a bounceback matchup this week, as the Steelers are the 6th-best fantasy matchup for DBs. With a few of his fellow defenders banged up, Amos could be on major cleanup duty this week. The Steelers have been throwing it a ton.
Avoids:
Devin Bush (LB, Pit) — Neither Bush (81%) nor Joe Schobert (89%) are every-down players for Pittsburgh, making them nothing more than LB3s. Bush had 2 tackles last week, while Schobert had 5. It's possible that Bush's groin injury has limited his production and playing time, but I'd need to see a game or two of 90%+ usage and 8-10 tackles before leaning on him more. Things won’t get any easier this week for this duo, as Green Bay is 31st in opposing LB fantasy production.
Injuries:
DOUBTFUL
CB, Kevin King - concussion
QUESTIONABLE
LB, Krys Barnes - concussion
S, Vernon Scott - hamstring
TB @ NE
Targets:
Antoine Winfield, Jr. (S, TB) — Winfield has already had some impact games this season to build off his strong rookie year. He heads into Week Four and Foxboro Stadium with the best matchup of the week. New England’s offense produces the most FPG to DBs so far, including 101 tackles, 8 PD, and 3 INTs.
Avoids:
Adrian Phillips (S, NE) — The Patriots played in 3-safety sets for almost every snap in Week Three. This spread out the safety production too evenly to make Phillips (5 tackles) or Kyle Dugger (4 tackles) a reliable option past your DB2 slot. Dugger is questionable though, so if he doesn’t play I’m fine starting Phillips this week.
Injuries:
OUT
CB, Jamel Dean - knee
QUESTIONABLE
OLB, Jason Pierre-Paul - shoulder, hand
S, Kyle Dugger - hamstring
LB, Josh Uche - back
LB, Ja’Whaun Bentley - shoulder
LB, Kyle Van Noy - groin
LV @ LAC
Targets:
Denzel Perryman (LB, LV) — Now that the trades and free agent signings are behind them and teammates are getting healthy, it's looking like Perryman (100%) and Cory Littleton (73%) are the LBs to own here. Perryman had another monster game in Week Three, posting 14 tackles (10 solo). The Chargers are a subpar matchup -- just 27th in FPG to LBs -- but he’s still worth a start.
Avoids:
Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph has been a strong tackle-producer in the middle of this D-line, but his matchup is poor this week. The Raiders are in the bottom 10 in rush% and consequently are 27th in DL production.
Injuries:
Not reported yet.
