The Market Report: Week 11

The Market Report is your one-stop Monday shop for all the movement from a big weekend of NFL football.

These are the players who stood out for fantasy-relevant reasons — the good reasons, the bad reasons, and the in-between.

This column will be posted every Monday afternoon.

UPGRADES

Players about whom we’re feeling more optimistic based on recent play or news.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (KC) — After a brutal three week stretch, the Chiefs finally returned to their old ways on SNF after blitzing the Raiders for a whopping 41 points. Patrick Mahomes was simply surgical (35-of-50, 406 yards, 5 TDs) as he single-handedly delivered the Chiefs the AFC West lead. The Chiefs scored on seven of their 10 drives and two of the 3 possessions that they didn’t put points on the board was because of a missed field goal at the end of the first half and a few kneel downs at the end of the game. Kansas City’s recent woes were exercised this week as Mahomes was kept clean all game long by his offensive line, he played well within structure, and his other-worldly ball-placement was on full display. One other key thing we’ve been talking about on the site for about a month is that Travis Kelce (neck) and Tyreek Hill (knee/ankle) have both been dealing with nagging injuries since Week 5 and that their (lack of) health further slowed down this offense. Not anymore – at least with Kelce! I thought Kelce looked the best he had in awhile in Week 9 vs. the Packers and he is clearly back to form now after tagging the Raiders for 8/119. The Chiefs should be brimming with confidence heading into an epic showdown with the Cowboys in Week 11. (Graham Barfield)

Jalen Hurts (Phi) — Here we go again! After a few bad games with missed throws, and then the Eagles completely dialing back their passing offense, there were legitimate questions being asked about how long the Eagles would stick with him. Well, the Eagles’ offensive shift to a focus on the run game — of which Hurts is an integral part — has piled up the yardage, and has Philly entering an easy second-half schedule with some hope of making a playoff run. Against the Broncos in Week 10, Hurts went 16/23 for 178 yards with 2 TD and a pick, adding 14/53 rushing — Hurts has now topped 50 yards rushing in four consecutive games. His interception came in the second half and was affected by a defender hitting his arm, but all in all, the Eagles threw just 3 passes in the second half as Denver consistently tripped over itself and made crippling mistakes (none bigger than Melvin Gordon’s fumble-six). However, I thought this game was the best Hurts has thrown the ball all season. He was 15/20 in the first half, and arguably his best throw, a frozen rope to Quez Watkins for a would-be TD, was dropped. The Eagles should stick with their newfound identity, and it’s also worth pointing out that Hurts has been exceptional on traditional play action (under center) since the shift. He’s back on the weekly fantasy QB1 radar. (Joe Dolan)

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (Car) — CMC has quickly reminded everyone why he was the no-doubt top overall fantasy pick this past summer since returning from the injured reserve in Week 9. In matchups against the two of the NFL’s best defenses, McCaffrey has posted 27/147 rushing and 14/120 receiving on 15 targets against the Patriots and Cardinals. He just missed out on a massive performance in Week 10 with multiple cracks at the end zone, only to see Cam Newton account for two touchdowns at the goal line against Arizona. CMC did take a shot to his thigh and he spent some time in the medical tent, but he returned to the game so he’ll hopefully be ready for action this week against Washington. McCaffrey has proven again that he is the RB1 every week, regardless of matchup, including against Washington in Week 11. (Tom Brolley)

D’Andre Swift (Det) — Lions’ HC Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties from OC Anthony Lynn coming out of their bye, and he showed a strong commitment to running the rock and taking the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands. The Lions finished with 39 carries compared to 29 dropbacks in their 16-16 tie against the Steelers in Week 10. Swift saw 33 of those carries, which he turned into 130 yards (3.9 YPC), and he added 3/5 receiving on six targets. Unfortunately, Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson each had long touchdown runs on their five combined carries, but Swift still had a promising role coming out of their bye with a season-high 93% snap share. Swift could be looking at another massive workload against the Browns this week. Jamaal Williams’ thigh injury appears to be more serious than initially thought since he didn’t log a single practice leading up to Week 10, and #3 RB Jefferson left early with an ankle injury. (TB)

Antonio Gibson (Was) — Look, the gamescript was unanticipated, with the Team leading the Bucs from start to finish in Week 10. And that’s part of the reason why Gibson had more rushing attempts than we could have predicted. But what was good was his snap share as he comes out of the bye week, indicating that he healed up enough to handle a heavy workload against a tough defense. Gibson posted 24/64/2 rushing and 2/14 receiving against the Bucs. It was a career=high 24 carries on a 63% snap share, his second-highest of the season. Gibson was still listed on the injury report this week and practiced in a limited fashion, so the injury isn’t totally behind him, but given that he played a season-low 33% of the snaps prior to the bye in a full-on rotation with Jaret Patterson on early downs, there is at least some reason to believe he’s healthier now than he was two weeks ago (Patterson played just 5 snaps in Week 10). Gibson will remain volatile, but this is the first time we’ve had some level of optimism on him in a while. (JD)

James Robinson (Jax) — He’s back! There was a true game-time decision status on Robinson (heel) headed into Week 10’s tilt with the Colts, and he actually didn’t start the game — Carlos Hyde did. But Robinson did everything that matters for the Jaguars in the backfield, posting 12/57/1 rushing and 4/27 receiving on 5 targets. A lot of that production came in the fourth quarter as the Jags had a valiant comeback effort, and Robinson still played just 59% of the offensive snaps, tying his season-low in a full game. But he made it through apparently unscathed, and is back on the RB1 radar in future weeks. He’s just a good player… and way better than Urban Meyer’s boy Hyde. (JD)

A.J. Dillon (GB) — Dillon has become a much larger part of this Packers offense as of late and it culminated in a massive 21/66/2 rushing | 2/62 receiving performance in their shutout win over the Seahawks. Green Bay desperately wants to have a thunder / lightning approach with AJ Dillon / Aaron Jones and they were on the precipice of perfecting that combination, until Jones picked up a knee injury in the final seconds of the third quarter against Seattle. The good news is that Jones isn’t going to miss a ton of time – but it seems very likely that the Packers will hold him out through their Week 13 bye. That gives Dillon a two-week stretch to go ballistic as the team’s No. 1 runner in Week 11 (vs. Vikings) and Week 12 (vs. Rams). If you’ve been stashing Dillon all year, this is the moment you’ve been waiting for. (GB)

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (Buf) — Diggs erupted for his first 30+ FP performance of the season and he finished as the WR1 in Week 10 with 8/162/1 receiving on 13 targets against the Jets. He reached 100+ yards for the second time in 2021 thanks to three separate receptions that went for 20+ yards, including a 57-yard reception. Diggs has now posted 14+ FP in four straight games, and he has 85+ yards in three of those contests. Josh Allen targeted Diggs on 46% of his attempts with no other receiver seeing more than three targets against the Jets. Diggs now owns a 25% target share through nine games thanks to his recent surge in looks from Allen, and he’s slowly catching up to his 28% share from his WR3 campaign in 2020. (TB)

CeeDee Lamb (Dal) — After flopping against Denver because he and Dak Prescott couldn’t get on the same page, the Cowboys top duo quickly rectified that this week as Lamb shredded the Falcons for 6/94/2 on seven targets. Dak and Lamb’s second TD in particular was a thing of beauty. Michael Gallup’s return also signaled Lamb’s return back into the slot full-time as he aligned inside on 70% (16-of-23 routes) of Dallas’ passing plays before they pulled their starters in the blowout. Lamb lining up inside will allow him to get away from press coverage on the outside and take advantage of his YAC skills over the middle of the field. Lamb has now finished as the WR16 > WR18 > WR1 > WR66 > WR11 over his last five games and will surely be on the top-12 radar in Week 11 when the Cowboys visit the Chiefs. (GB)

DeVonta Smith (Phi) — Despite the Eagles throwing just 40 passes the last two weeks combined, the rookie Smith is the overall WR1 in PPR leagues over that span. Seriously. Against the Broncos in Week 10, Smith had yet another impressive game, posting 4/66/2 on 6 targets, giving him now 9/182/3 on 12 targets over the last two games combined. While he absolutely “Moss’d” his former college teammate Patrick Surtain on a spectacular touchdown from Jalen Hurts early in the game, Smith’s best play in the second half against the Broncos might well have been breaking up one of Hurts’ few bad passes of the game, which would have been a pick for Surtain. The young player would likely be putting up better numbers in a more pass-heavy offense… but the Eagles’ offense is now humming with a run-heavy approach, and Smith is still putting up points. He just looks like a veteran out there. (JD)

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (KC) — He’s back! Officially! The Chiefs mid-season lull offensively was vanquished on SNF as Patrick Mahomes shredded the Raiders for 41 total points. Kelce himself was a huge part of the action as he posted a season-high 119 receiving yards. After dealing with a neck injury from Weeks 6-8, it’s clear Kelce is healthier than he’s been all year long. Kansas City gets a shootout with Dallas next before their Week 12 bye. (GB)

DOWNGRADES

Players about whom we’re feeling less optimistic based on recent play or news.

Quarterbacks

None of note.

Running Backs

Damien Harris (NE) — Harris had been running hot with rushing touchdowns and double-digit FP in five straight games in Weeks 5-9. A concussion kept him from extending his streak in Week 10, and he could have more competition for touches as soon has he’s ready to return to the lineup after rookie Rhamondre Stevenson went off for 20/100/2 rushing and 4/14 receiving as the team’s lead runner in a blowout victory over the Browns. Stevenson has earned more chances for playing with 100+ scrimmage yards in consecutive games so Harris could be stuck in more of a committee than his owners want to see. Harris should remain the 1A with Stevenson serving as the 1B, but his weekly fantasy standing is going to come down to if he finds the end zone or not since he has just 11/63 receiving in his first nine games this season. (TB)

Aaron Jones (GB) — Unfortunately, it looks like Aaron Jones is going to miss a few games with a sprained knee he suffered late in the third quarter against the Seahawks. The Packers play in Weeks 11-12 (vs. Vikings / Packers) and then have their bye, so it seems like Week 14 would be a logical date to target for Jones’ return. Right on time for the fantasy playoffs. In the meantime, A.J. Dillon is a no-brainer RB1 play with Jones on the shelf. (GB)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown (TB) — AB was inactive in Week 10 coming out of the bye in the Bucs’ shocking loss to the Team, and it might be a few weeks before we see him. Brown didn’t appear close to practicing last week, and he’s still rehabbing what looks to be a pretty severe ankle injury. What’s shocking is how Mike Evans hasn’t managed to take advantage with more targets. (JD)

Mike Williams (LAC) — After yet another down game (4/33 on six targets) against a banged up Vikings defense, it is clear that Williams probably isn’t 100% after hurting his knee back in Week 6. Since then, Williams’ production and usage has dropped off of a cliff as the wideout has gone from 23.2 FPG in Weeks 1-5 to just 5.8 FPG in Weeks 6-10. The big thing that is missing right now is deep targets and those vertical looks were a huge reason why Williams was going off every week to start the year. If he can’t get vertical and clash with cornerbacks like he wants to because of a sore knee, the Chargers are going to continue to not use him in that way. However, Williams will get another chance to re-find his previous form next week when L.A. faces an extremely beat up Pittsburgh defense that just played a five quarter game against Detroit. (GB)

Courtland Sutton (Den) — To be fair to Sutton, everyone on the planet predicted him to have a down game against the Eagles and top CB Darius Slay in Week 10. But his 2 catches for 29 yards on 3 targets continued a disturbing trend for Sutton. On the season, he has now finished as the WR100, WR64, WR65, and (pre-MNF) WR59 in games in which Jerry Jeudy was also active. With QB Teddy Bridgewater not playing particularly inspiring football the last number of weeks, Sutton’s floor is absolutely horrific, and his ceiling doesn’t show up often enough. He’s more of a bench option who can only be used in good matchups. (JD)

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson (Det) — Hockenson is about as talented a tight end in the league, but he’s stuck in the league’s worst offensive environment, which could be somehow getting worse in the final two months of the season. With HC Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties and skewing even more run-heavy, the third-year TE failed to haul in his one and only target in sloppy conditions against the Steelers in Week 10. Backup Brock Wright saw more targets from Jared Goff than Hockenson (2 to 1) on basically an eighth of the routes (23 to 3). Hockenson now has four performances with fewer than nine FP in his last seven contests, and he could be even more volatile down the stretch with Campbell actively looking to take the ball out of Goff’s hands. Hockenson already had a limited ceiling with no touchdowns since he scored in Weeks 1-2, and he now has a rock-bottom floor in this awful passing attack. (TB)

Mike Gesicki (Mia) — It had been exactly two months, but we got one of Gesicki’s patented duds in a great matchup against the Ravens in Week 10. Gesicki entered Week 10 as the TE8 with his 12.3 FPG average, but he left his showdown with Baltimore with no catches on a team-high seven targets (19% share). Ouch! He previously posted a goose egg against the Patriots in the season opener and it’s the seventh time he’s walked away without a catch in his first four seasons. It hurt even more to see Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe combine for 4/57 receiving on five targets, but at least he saw a position-best 81% of the snaps, which is his sixth straight game with 70% of the snaps or more. Gesicki’s performance in Week 10 stings, but he’s earned more benefit of the doubt this season since he strung together eight straight games with 3+ catches and 40+ yards. The Dolphins are still extremely thin at wide receiver with DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR) out of the lineup, so Gesicki has a great chance to bounce back as a TE1 option against the Jets this week. (TB)

WATCH LIST

Players whom we’re not ready to upgrade or downgrade, but their situations demand monitoring based on recent play, injuries, or news.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (Ari) — The Cardinals have taken the long view with Murray the last two weeks, resting him and his injured ankle against the 49ers and Panthers. He’s trending toward playing this week against the Seahawks, but the Cardinals have the option to rest him for one more game with their bye looming in Week 12, which would give him more than a month’s worth of rest to be at 100% health for the final six games of the season. Murray had his worst fantasy performance (11.1 FP) of the season the last time we saw him against the Packers, when he picked up his ankle injury on the final drive of Week 8. If Murray is healthy enough to play, HC Kliff Kingsbury could cut down on the design run for his quarterback, who has just 26/38 rushing (1.5 YPC) in the last four games anyway. (TB)

Running Backs

Nick Chubb (Cle) — Chubb’s already uneven season got even more frustrating when he tested positive for COVID-19 last week, which forced him to watch from the sidelines in their humiliating 45-7 loss to the Patriots in Week 10. D’Ernest Johnson registered his second performance with 22+ FP in the last four weeks with 19/99 rushing and 7/58 receiving on eight targets on an 88% snap share. The vaccinated Chubb is likely to return to the lineup this week in a prime matchup against the Lions, but he’s quickly running out of opportunities to own this backfield and to be an elite fantasy option while Kareem Hunt (calf, IR) is out of the lineup likely through their Week 13 bye. (TB)

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram (NO) — Kamara was inactive for Sunday’s loss to the Titans with a knee injury, and the loss wasn’t on Ingram, who did enough to fill in — and for fantasy — with 14/47/1 rushing and 4/61 receiving on 7 targets, though Ingram was the intended target on the Saints’ ill-fated 7-yard two-point try to extend the game late. It’s obviously not a serious injury for Kamara, as he actually played through it in Week 9, but it’s something that is lingering for him. Coach Sean Payton obviously didn’t go into details about Kamara’s injury, but it was his comments from last week that indicated it’s something he might have to deal with for some time. We’ll check on his availability all week, obviously. The Saints have an important game with the suddenly frisky Eagles in Week 11. (JD)

Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl) — C-Patt has been a bonafide league winner since he was plucked from waiver wires to start the year, but unfortunately, the dream is coming to a screeching halt. Patterson injured his ankle in the Falcons blowout loss to the Cowboys and even though he tried to re-tape it and get back in the game, he was ultimately shut down. There are murmurs that his sprain is the dreaded “high ankle” variety which are known to be finicky and tough to rehab. NFL Network’s Tom Pellissero was ominous on Monday as he made it seem like Atlanta is bracing to be without Patterson for a few weeks beyond TNF in Week 11. Injuries suck. In the meantime, expect the Falcons to go with some sort of rotation between Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman. After he was made a healthy scratch basically all year, Gallman came in and out-snapped (43% to 37%) and out-touched (16 to 4) Davis this past week. Gallman getting a huge opportunity was likely a combination of the blowout loss and Davis’ ineffectiveness, because over his last six games, Davis is averaging a plodding 2.92 YPC. Gallman is definitely a name to keep in mind when you’re placing waiver claims this week. (GB)

Chris Carson (Sea) — Unfortunately, Carson’s status for the remainder of this season is completely up in the air right now. He missed his fifth-straight game with a neck injury in Week 10 and the always optimistic Pete Carroll somewhat ominously said “it isn’t time yet” to active him off of I.R. Our guy Edwin Porras has been adamant that Carson’s neck issue could end up costing him not only the rest of the season – but perhaps his career. It’s a brutal turn of events for the former 7th rounder turned star. With Carson out again, Alex Collins handled 10 of the Seahawks 11 RB carries in their loss to the Packers. Collins will continue to be on the low-end RB2 radar for as long as Carson remains out. (GB)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) — This is just a note that CEH is very close to a return. The Chiefs designated him to come off of injured reserve last week, but ultimately decided that Edwards-Helaire needed a bit more time to make sure his knee is right. Speaking Monday morning, HC Andy Reid said that CEH “has a pretty good chance” to return in Week 11 vs. the Cowboys. The Chiefs have their bye coming up next in Week 12, so it’ll be interesting to see how much work CEH actually gets in his return or if the team wants to give him an extra two weeks to rest before their playoff push. Regardless, you should plan on continuing to have a replacement ready for Week 11 because it’s likely CEH will be limited even if he suits up. Darrel Williams has continued to play well as the starter and now has 226 receiving yards over his last five games. In 18 career starts, CEH has managed just 358 receiving yards. (GB)

Miles Sanders (Phi) — Sanders (ankle) can return from IR this week, and he would return to an offense that has completely been redesigned without him. The Eagles are averaging 209 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, almost 50 yards more per game than the #2 team, the Patriots. All of a sudden, only the Browns and Ravens have run for more yards than the Eagles. Yes, while Philly has been doing this with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, it’s worth pointing out that they may have planned to start this shift in Week 7, when Sanders got hurt against the Raiders. Sanders had 6 carries on the first two drives of that game before getting hurt, and the Eagles went extremely pass-heavy after the fact (Howard wasn’t active for the game). While Howard and Scott are running well — especially Howard — neither has Sanders’ home-run speed. It will be interesting to see how Sanders gets worked in here. (JD)

Wide Receivers

AJ Brown (Ten) — The Titans need more of Brown — though they won in Week 10 in a scrappy one with the Saints, Brown didn’t contribute much, posting 1/16 receiving on 4 targets. Obviously, the Saints have an elite perimeter corner in Marshon Lattimore, but having Lattimore shadow Brown wasn’t their plan. (See following tweets.) The Titans are absolutely decimated and they keep winning, but teams can now focus on Brown frequently with no Derrick Henry and Julio Jones in the lineup. You still have to start him, but the Titans need to scheme him better looks if defenses are going to focus so much attention on him. (JD)

DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) — Nuk hasn’t logged a single practice over the last three weeks, and he hasn’t seen game action in the last two weeks after he aggravated his hamstring injury on a long reception against the Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. He’s going to have to practice at some point this week if he has any hopes of playing against the Seahawks in Week 11, and there’s a chance the Cardinals take the extra cautious approach and rest him again this week with their bye approaching in Week 12. With Kyler Murray spreading the rock around in this loaded offense, Hopkins is averaging eight-year lows with 4.4/60.8/.9 receiving on 6.1 targets per game through eight games. (TB)

Diontae Johnson (Pit) — Diontae was his typical busy self against the Lions in Week 10, even with Mason Rudolph in the lineup with Ben Roethlisberger dealing with a late-week COVID-19 diagnosis. Johnson saw a team-high 13 targets (26% share) against the Lions, which he turned into 7/83 receiving to give him 14+ FP in seven of his eight games this season. Diontae didn’t have quite the same connection with Rudolph under center, which isn’t the best news since there’s a chance Big Ben could miss this week’s showdown against the Chargers since the vaccinated Roethlisberger was showing symptoms from COVID-19 over the weekend. Still, the Steelers are down to Ray Ray McCloud and James Washington behind him with Chase Claypool (toe) likely to miss another game, so Rudolph has no other choice but to feed Johnson once again this week. (TB)

D.J. Moore (Car) — Moore desperately needs a shot of life with three straight performances with fewer than double-digit FP. He hasn’t reached 15+ FP in six straight games after doing it in each of his first four games. He’s coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season with 4/24 receiving on seven targets against the Cardinals while primarily playing with P.J. Walker in Week 10. Moore is trending hard in the wrong direction, but he’ll get a QB change as early as this week against Washington with Cam Newton taking over as the team’s starter. Cam isn’t a major upgrade as a passer at this stage in his career, but anything is better than Sam Darnold’s play since Week 4. Moore does have two years of experience playing with Newton in 2018-19 so there’s some hope he can get moving in the right direction relatively quickly if Cam isn’t too rusty after a long layoff. (TB)

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (SEA) — Russell Wilson’s return was… less than spectacular, to say the least. Seattle’s offense was stuck in neutral all game long as Wilson went just 20-of-40 for 161 yards, 2 INTs, and 3 sacks. Overall, six of the Seahawks’ 10 possessions ended with a punt. They just couldn’t get anything going. Better days are ahead, though. If Wilson is back to 100%, this passing attack has league-winning upside down the stretch run because their seven remaining games are against mouth-watering opponents – vs. Cardinals, Washington, 49ers, Texans, Rams in Weeks 11-15 – and then they get the Bears and Lions at home in Weeks 16-17. Let’s go. (GB)

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert (Phi) — Goedert played just 13 snaps in Week 10 against the Broncos, catching 2 passes for 28 yards, before being knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit. Goedert didn’t pass concussion protocol, and now he’ll be in the protocol as the Eagles look to get him back in action for Week 11’s tilt with the Saints. It’s Goedert’s first documented concussion, which usually leaves more optimism for his status. (JD)

Logan Thomas (Was) — Thomas didn’t seem particularly close to returning from his hamstring injury in Week 10, as he was only getting in minimal work in practices, but with Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) now hurt, you have to wonder if the Team will accelerate the timeline for him. That’s obviously dangerous to do with a hamstring injury, but it will be interesting to see how much work he gets in this week. Seals-Jones’ injury isn’t serious (Ron Rivera called him “day-to-day”) but this remains a situation to monitor. (JD)