GAME PICKS
Saints at Titans
Bet – Titans -3 (+100, FOXBet)
Why? – Can’t make sense of this line. Trevor Siemian played so poorly last week that he was almost benched and they now don’t have Kamara.
Seahawks at Packers
Bet – Under 49.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – While it’s definitely great to have Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both back, this game doesn’t exactly have shootout written all over it. Seahawks-Packers ranks dead-last in both adjusted pace and play volume between these two slow offenses.
Seattle put up at least 28 points in three of Wilson’s four full games, but it wasn’t because of good game-planning. The Seahawks were perfectly balanced (53% pass | 47% run) with their early down play selection in Weeks 1-4 despite the fact that Wilson was averaging a league-high 10.1 YPA on his 1st and 2nd down throws. Once again, we find ourselves begging the Seahawks to open things up and turn into the Bills of the West. We can always dream.
Meanwhile, the Packers have been a dead under team this season. Six of their 8 games went under before Aaron Rodgers missed Week 9 as their defense has held opponents to a modest 17.8 points per game after they get whipped by the Saints on Opening Day. Between Wilson making his return after a month layoff, Rodgers not practicing for basically two weeks due to COVID protocols, and both of these offenses playing slow as molasses – I can see this game underwhelming.
PLAYER PROPS
Lamar Jackson
Bet – Over 235.5 passing yards (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – Lamar is averaging 35.8 pass attempts and 289.6 yards per game over his last five outings as the Ravens have shifted way more pass-heavy. Dolphins’ secondary is giving up the fifth-most YPG (276.7). We have Lamar projected for 275 yards.
Rashod Bateman
Bet – Over 25.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Even with Sammy Watkins likely back, Bateman will still be a full-time player and it’ll give the Ravens the ability to move around all four of their main pass catchers. Either way, Bateman will have a good matchup wherever he aligns here. Miami is giving up the sixth-most YPG to receivers aligned out wide and the eighth-most to slot wideouts. We have Bateman projected for 58 yards.
Myles Gaskin
Bet – Under 42.5 rushing yards (-115, Wynn)
Why? – Massive underdogs so trailing script likely and averaging 2.81 YPC over the last month. We have Gaskin projected for 41 rushing yards.
Hayden Hurst
Bet – Under 25.5 receiving yards (-110, PointsBet)
Why? – Has just 5, 3, and 3, targets in three games without Ridley. We have Hurst projected for just 16 yards.
Mike Davis
Bet – Under 35.5 rushing yards (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Has under 15 rush yards in three of his last 5 and is averaging 2.79 YPC in that span. Falcons are huge underdogs so it’s unlikely game-script will be in his favor, so we have Davis projected for 20 rush yards.
Tajae Sharpe
Bet – Under 29.5 receiving yards (-112, SuperBook)
Why? – Pretty large prop for Sharpe, who is averaging just 4 targets per game without Ridley. We have Sharpe projected for 23 yards.
Mike Evans
Bet – Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, FOXBet & -110, PointsBet)
Why? – Grabbing this on two different books. Averaging 89 YPG in five games not against Slay, Lattimore, or Diggs. Godwin dinged up. We have Evans projected for 82 yards.
Ricky Seals-Jones
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (+110, PointsBet & +116 SuperBook)
Why? – Grabbing this on two different books. Averaging 6.5 targets and 4.3 receptions per game in four starts without Logan Thomas. Bucs’ defense is giving up the second-most catches per game to TEs (6.6). We have RSJ projected for 4.5 receptions.
Najee Harris
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – Mason Rudolph targeted his RBs on 24% of his throws when he made eight starts back in 2019. Weather is crap, lending itself to more checkdowns, too.
Rashard Higgins
Bet – Under 24.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Under 25 yards in three of his last 4 games and was a distant fourth among their WRs in routes run last week.
Marvin Jones
Bet – Over 4 receptions (+105, Wynn)
Why? – Averaging 7.3 targets and 4 receptions per game with Chark out. Colts are giving up the eighth-most receptions per game to WRs.
Adrian Peterson
Bet – Under 30.5 rushing yards (+105, FOXBet)
Why? – Saints giving up a league-low 2.93 YPC and 57.9 YPG to RBs. Peterson looked… like a 36-year-old RB who hasn’t played all year last week. I bet we see more McNichols / Foreman here.
Christian McCaffrey
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+100, BetMGM) & over 39.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – It’s CMC. He had four catches last week despite playing on just half of the snaps. What will he do this week as a massive underdog, which should lead to more volume? We have CMC projected for 5 catches / 40 yards.
Patrick Mahomes
Bet – Under 289.5 passing yards (-115, SuperBook)
Why? – Has been under 280 yards in six of his last seven games. Raiders are getting pressure at the sixth-highest rate and Mahomes has struggled badly when pressured recently. We have Mahomes projected for 250 yards.
ROI THIS SEASON
Game Picks -17% (Overall: 13-15)
Player Props +7.2% (Overall: 93-72)
