Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Teams on Bye: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers
Mia @ Jax (in London)
Targets:
Jerome Baker (LB, Mia) — Unless the Dolphins change his role at some point, Baker will never be a top-10 LB for fantasy. But that doesn’t mean he’s not playing solid ball. Baker’s production ebbs and flows from about 3 tackles to 9 tackles, which can drive us crazy. This week however, looks to be a good week for Baker. Not only do the Jaguars produce for the 4th-most FPG to LBs this season, they throw a lot more than they run. And Baker’s pass defense is his strength, so there may be more PD on his dance card than usual. I like JB as a backend LB2 this week.
Damien Wilson (LB, Jax) — With Myles Jack (back) out this week, Wison’s tackle opps will be raised. That, and he’s now the new play caller. HC Urban Meyer said they had done research and found that Jack was better when he wasn’t calling the plays. If he was a FantasyPoints subscriber, he would have already known that, as we discussed that last year and this offseason. I digress. Wilson is a solid play this week.
Dakota Allen (LB, Jax) — This is a deep league move, but Allen is in line to replace Myles Jack (back) this week. There’s a chance that Allen will play around 40-60% of the snaps, so he’s best deployed as your LB3/LB4 with upside. Some backups get heavily attacked by the opposition, so Allen does have a chance for one of those 12-tackle games because Jacoby Brissett will just look for Allen and run/throw at him all game. But, with the potential of limited snaps, Allen is boom/bust. Allen is listed as questionable, but he practiced in full all week.
Avoids:
Christian Wilkins (DT, Mia) — Wilkins is normally one of our favorite weekly plays but he has a brutal matchup this week. The Jaguars run the ball at a bottom-5 rate, and consequently produce the fewest tackles to DLs in the league. If Jacksonville can get and hold a lead, they’re bound to run the ball more, but even when they’ve had leads this year, they haven’t run it much. Just pull back your tackle expectations for Wilkins this week. The same goes for Zach Sieler, Jaelan Phillips, et. al.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Myles Jack, Jax - back
CB Xavien Howard, Mia - shoulder/groin
QUESTIONABLE
LB Dakota Allen, Jax - shoulder
CB Tyson Campbell, Jax - toe
CB Byron Jones, Mia - achilles/groin
LAC @ Bal
Targets:
Kyzir White (LB, LAC) — White and Drue Tranquill have been 75% players and splitting production, with Tranquill getting the majority of said production. With Tranquill out this week, White should see increased snaps and tackles.
Avoids:
Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — Queen still hasn't ascended to a full-time, reliable LB1 he was supposed to be. He’s still got time in his career, of course. But the reasons for his less-than-stellar production are many. First, he plays about 80-90%. That’s not bad, but it’s noticeably fewer than the best LBs play. And we need him on the field for every snap to be reliable as an LB1. Also, his 11% tackle rate is about average. LB1s are more in the 13-15% range. Finally, Baltimore’s offense is 22nd in pace. In summary, Baltimore’s defense plays fewer snaps than average, Queen doesn’t play every one of those snaps, and he’s tackling at just an average rate. I’m still using him as an LB3 (he’s currently LB #27), but not much else. Particularly this week, as the Chargers are 26th in FP allowed to LBs.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Drue Tranquill, LAC - chest
QUESTIONABLE
S Nasir Adderley, LAC - hip
S DeShon Elliott, Bal - quadriceps
S Geno Stone, Bal - thigh
Min @ Car
Targets:
Harrison Smith (S, Min) — Smith’s fantasy renaissance has been enjoyable to watch. Once Anthony Harris left in free agency, Smith’s role shuffled back to his previously fantasy-productive one. Smith added another 9 tackles last week, making him the #3 DB so far. He has a good matchup this week as the Panthers are a top-10 team for opposing DBs.
Everson Griffen (DE, Min) — The veteran Griffen was signed to be a situational pass rusher but has seen his snaps climb over the last few weeks. He played 72% last week (up from the 40-50% he was playing in the first few weeks) and now has 7 tackles and 3 sacks in his last two games. This week, he faces a Carolina offense that yields 18 tackles and 2.5 sacks per game to DLs. That’s 2nd-most.
Avoids:
Jermaine Carter (LB, Car) — Carter underwhelmed in his first start for the injured Shaq Thompson. He played every snap but had just 3 tackles. Thompson is out again this week, so he’ll get another shot to produce but even in Carter’s previous game at 60-80% usage, he wasn’t producing much. Carter’s 8% tackle rate is just not getting it done for fantasy.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Shaq Thompson, Car - foot
LB Kamal Martin, Car - concussion
QUESTIONABLE
CB C.J. Henderson, Car - shoulder
GB @ Chi
Targets:
Khalil Mack (LB, Chi) — Mack has been a frustrating fantasy asset in recent years, but he's been on fire lately. He had 8 tackles last week, and now has at least 1 sack in four straight games. This week, he gets to face his old foe Aaron Rodgers, and a Green Bay O-line that produces the 8th-most FPG to DLs (on Chicago’s defense, Mack’s role is essentially a DL for fantasy purposes). He is questionable so watch his gameday status but if he plays, I’m starting him.
De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Most likely you don’t need me to tell you to start Campbell, but I’ve seen questions about Jaylon Smith’s signing and how it impacts Campbell. Beyond my opinion that Smith will impact 2nd LB Krys Barnes and not Campbell, Smith is still getting acclimated, so he doesn’t appear to be a factor for them yet. Smith may even be a healthy scratch this weekend.
Avoids:
Alec Ogletree (LB, Chi) — Ogletree played 52% (6 solos) last week, while incumbent Danny Trevathan played just 15% (3 tackles) in his first game action this season since going down with an injury this preseason. Will Trevathan officially supplant Ogletree this week, or will this be a timeshare going forward? I'm sitting both until we find out. Plus, the Packers are bottom-5 in LB production.
Injuries:
OUT
CB Kevin King, GB - shoulder
PROBABLE
LB Christian Jones, Chi - back
QUESTIONABLE
DT Akiem Hicks, Chi - groin
OLB Khalil Mack, Chi - foot
S Eddie Jackson, Chi - knee
S Vernon Scott, GB - knee
Cin @ Det
Targets:
Logan Wilson (LB, Cin) — Wilson had another great game. He wouldn’t usually make this list because if you’ve been following the articles and podcasts, you’ve known of my love of Wilson since this offseason and he’s already in your starting lineups. But last week, questions popped up due to his lowered snap count, so I’m here to clear that up. His snaps took a dip (86%) because he stayed off the field for a defensive series after making a big special teams tackle. Perhaps he got shaken up or they just gave him a breather. Either way it doesn't look like anything to worry about. Fire him up in the best matchup for LBs this week. Detroit produces the #1 FPG to LBs this season.
Avoids:
Jessie Bates III (S, Cin) — You’re starting Bates. Particularly with bye weeks upon us. But Bates and Vonn Bell are coming off monster games in a great matchup and now head to a poor matchup. The Lions are just 30th in opposing DB production. They give up 27 tackles to DBs, which is below average but not awful. They just don’t produce many PD, INTs, and TFL. Consider this more of a pre-emptive “what happened to Bates last week??” strike.
Injuries:
PROBABLE
CB Amani Oruwariye, Det - hip
QUESTIONABLE
DE Trey Flowers, Det - knee
Hou @ Ind
Targets:
Christian Kirksey (LB, Hou) — Kirksey added 12 tackles last week while playing every snap. With Zach Cunningham (52%) a non-factor lately, Kirksey’s fantasy managers have enjoyed the elevated tackle opportunity. The Colts have been a top-5 offense for opposing LB production so far.
Lonnie Johnson (S, Hou) — With Desmond King (12 tackles last week) looking iffy to play this week, Johnson will have an elevated tackle opportunity. Johnson recently earned a starting role and has played well. He had 4 tackles and an INT on an 86% snap share. He should be closer to 100% this week if King doesn’t play. King went from full practice to limited to DNP late in the week. That’s never a good sign. Johnson is a DB3 flyer with DB2 upside this week.
Kwity Paye (DE, Ind) — OK, I’m shooting my shot. Paye has missed the last few games and is officially listed as questionable (hamstring). But he’s practiced in full on Thursday and Friday, so I’m pretty sure he’ll be playing this weekend. Paye was playing well before he went down, and has a dream matchup this week. Houston runs the ball at the 8th-highest clip which elevates tackle opps for Indy’s DLs, and with Houston OLs Laremy Tunsil and Justin Britt out this week, Paye will be facing backups instead of two of their best linemen. The Colts are a 10-point home favorite, which is also a delicious recipe for sacks and big plays for DLs. Paye could get his first NFL sack this week.
Avoids:
Zach Cunningham (LB, Hou) — Cunnigham came back from the COVID-19 list but played just in base and was replaced by Kamu Grugier-Hill in passing situations. He played just 52% and had just 3 tackles. He’s on our benches for now, and is possibly droppable if things don’t turn around soon.
Injuries:
OUT
S Andrew Sendejo, Ind - concussion
DE Kemoko Turay, Ind - groin
PROBABLE
LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, Hou - hip
CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - ankle
LB Darius Leonard, Ind - ankle/shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
CB Xavier Rhodes, Ind - concussion
DE Kwity Paye, Ind - hamstring
LAR @ NYG
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Kenny Young (LB, LAR) — After the spanking the defense received in Week Four while facing Arizona, Young was one of the defenders whose playing time suffered the following week. Young went from being the every down LB to just 65% in Week Five. Up-and-coming Troy Reeder played 78% and could be moving toward owning the primary LB spot here. One game does not a new LB1 anoint, however. I’d like one more game out of Reeder to prop him up. But I don’t need another game to make me nervous about using Young this week. Particularly with the Giants being just 25th in FPG to LBs.
Tae Crowder (LB, NYG) — Crowder is still startable, as is Reggie Ragland, but they both have an awful matchup this week. The Rams are dead last in LB production. They’re bottom-5 in tackles allowed (18.6) and they essentially give up no big plays to LBs so far.
Injuries:
OUT
CB Rodarius Williams, NYG - knee
PROBABLE
DL Aaron Donald, LAR - knee
S Logan Ryan, NYG - hip
S Jabrill Peppers, NYG - hamstring
KC @ Was
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Daniel Sorensen (S, KC) — Oh boy. Sorensen had already been struggling in coverage this season, but the Bills straight up embarrassed him in Week Five. Sorensen is allowing a 153 passer rating this season. That’s about as much as Joe Dolan would allow if he were the starting safety for Kansas City (EDITOR’S NOTE: that’s mean). With Juan Thornhill waiting on the bench, there’s a good chance we’ve seen the last of Sorensen’s full-time job. When Thornhill was on the field two years ago, the Chiefs used Sorensen as a dime LB. But that was due to their serious issues at LB. This year, they have the athletic Willie Gay, Jr. and Nick Bolton to play that role. I’m not dropping Sorensen yet, but I can’t start him this week unless I’m out of other viable options.
Jamin Davis (LB, Was) — Even with Jon Bostic on IR, Davis can’t seem to climb up to a usable snap count. Last week, Davis played just 23% as the only other ILB next to Cole Holcomb. He’s clearly not ready for a bigger role, but he’s also being hurt by Washington’s 3 safeties. With Bobby McCain locking down the deep safety role, Washington can use the versatile Kamren Curl and box specialist Landon Collins as de facto LBs. It’s just not time for Davis.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Chris Jones, KC - wrist
CB Charvarius Ward, KC - quadriceps
QUESTIONABLE
DT Jarran Reed, KC - personal
LB Anthony Hitchens, KC - knee
DT Jonathan Allen, Was - knee
LB Cole Holcomb, Was - shoulder
Ari @ Cle
Targets:
J.J. Watt (DE, Ari) — Watt has been frustrating, but he is still playing tons of snaps and generating pressures. He had 3 solos, 3 QB hits, and a PD in Week 5 while playing 83%. Cleveland runs at the 3rd-highest rate and produces the 4th-most FPG to DLs this season. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but J.J. Watt is a good bye-week dart throw this week.
Jalen Thompson (S, Ari) — Thompson has been a steady producer next to Budda Baker. His 33 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PD have him parked at DB #25. If Cleveland elects to throw more this week to try and keep up with Arizona, Thompson could have another strong day.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (S, Cle) — JOK took a huge leap in snaps this week, playing 91%. It was Anthony Walker's first game back, so he was eased back in (73%). These two should be their main LBs going forward. Owusu-Koramoah is playing well and should be seeing tons of snaps next to Walker. It also helps that Malcolm Smith is out this week.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Tanner Vallejo, Ari - hand
LB Malcolm Smith, Cle - abdomen
PROBABLE
DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee
CB Greedy Williams, Cle - shoulder/knee
QUESTIONABLE
LB Jordan Hicks, Ari - Toe
CB Byron Murphy, Jr., Ari - ribs
CB Marco Wilson, Ari - ribs
DE Myles Garrett, Cle - knee/ankle
DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle - elbow/knee
DE Takkarist McKinley, Cle - ankle/knee
CB Denzel Ward, Cle - neck
CB A.J. Green, Cle - shoulder/knee
CB Greg Newsome II, Cle - calf
LV @ Den
Targets:
Justin Simmons (S, Den) — After a slow start to the season, Simmons has bounced back nicely. He’s posted 8 tackles in back-to-back weeks and seems back to his DB1 self.
Alexander Johnson (LB, Den) — Johnson had 8 tackles and a PD last week and now had 15 tackles in the last two games. He’s also upped his big-play game this season with 2 sacks, 3 PD, and a fumble recovery. He also has the best matchup of the week. The Raiders produce 27 tackles per game to LBs, which leads the league.
Johnathan Abram (S, LV) — Abram’s 39 tackles are 4th-most for DBs so far. He’d be higher than DB #24 if he had more big plays, but we’ll take those tackles all day. Abram has a great matchup this week, as the Broncos produce the 8th-most FPG to DBs this season.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
CB Mike Ford, Den - knee
PROBABLE
DL Mike Purcell, Den - back
DOUBTFUL
DT Johnathan Hankins, LV - hip
QUESTIONABLE
DT Quinton Jefferson, LV - back
LB Cory Littleton, LV - shoulder
CB Brandon Facyson, LV - hip
S Kareem Jackson, Den - back
Dal @ NE
Targets:
Jayron Kearse (S, Dal) — The team continues to lean on Kearse, who has blossomed since Donovan Wilson went down. It's hard to see Kearse coming off the field much even when Wilson returns (which could be this week). The Patriots are the best fantasy option for DBs, so we want all the Kearse and possibly Wilson shares this week.
Micah Parsons (LB, Dal) — Parsons is back to being an ILB. He played just 3 snaps on the D-Line last week and had 8 tackles (6 solo) and 3 QB hits. The emergence of Randy Gregory at DE has helped move Parsons back to an off-ball role. Plus, New England has been a top-10 offense for opposing LB production. Gregory is questionable (knee) and DE Dorance Armstrong is out (ankle), so Parsons may see more snaps on the edge this week, but it only increases his big play prospects while giving him that ILB floor.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Dorance Armstrong, Dal - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DE Randy Gregory, Dal - knee
S Damonte Kazee, Dal - hip
S Donovan Wilson, Dal - groin
CB Trevon Diggs, Dal - groin
OLB Kyle Van Noy, NE - groin
LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - shoulder
CB Jalen Mills, NE - hamstring
DB Jonathan Jones, NE - ankle
S Kyle Dugger, NE - hamstring
Sea @ Pit
Targets:
Cameron Heyward (DT, Pit) — Heyward is listed as questionable, but he practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and has a good matchup this week. The Seahawks were already producing the 7th-most FPG to DLs, and that was before they fielded a backup QB, backup RB, and backup OT. Game on for Heyward, as well as Alex Highsmith and Melvin Ingram III.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Cameron Heyward, Pit - neck
LB Devin Bush, Pit - groin
CB Cameron Sutton, Pit - groin
Buf @ Ten
Targets:
Greg Rousseau (DE, Buf) — Rousseau now has at least 4 tackles in three of his last four games, and also has 3 sacks in that span. As his production and snaps rise, he meets a Tennessee offense that produces the most FPG to DLs. I like the whole Buffalo D-line this week, but Rousseau is coming in hot.
Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Buf) — We got a good game out of Edmunds last week — 9 tackles — but it was also on 86 snaps. That's about 20-25 more than average. He’s still tackling at an 11% rate. That puts him near 6-7 tackles a game, not 9. So why is he on the “target” list? Because Derrick Henry and Tennessee allow the 3rd-most production to LBs. Edmunds should have another solid game this week.
Avoids:
A.J. Klein (LB, Buf) — Klein had 9 tackles filling in for Matt Milano, but like Tremaine Edmunds, it was on 86 snaps. With Milano practicing this week and questionable, Klein can’t be trusted if Milano is active.
Taron Johnson (CB, Buf) — Johnson won't always have these monster 12-tackle games like he had last week, but it's one of the reasons we love him as an underrated slot CB. He’s on this list because Greg Cosell suggested they may go more big nickel (3 safeties instead of 3 CBs) this week to slow that Tennessee run game. Johnson’s production is predicated on the Bills playing their regular nickel alignment almost 90%. If they sub in S Siran Neal for Johnson, that production will disappear.
Injuries:
Final injury report not submitted yet.
