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Week 16 IDP Preview

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Week 16 IDP Preview

Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.

A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.

Note: Hold onto your butts. We’ve added a “COVID LIST” section that can change at any minute. Please check carefully before you finalize your rosters.

Cle @ GB

Targets:

De’Vondre Campbell (LB, GB) — Campbell has one of the better matchups this week. The Browns and their rushing attack produce the 7th-most FPG to LBs this season, including 23.5 tackles per game. Campbell has 26 tackles in his last two games.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Ty Summers, GB - hamstring

CB Greg Newsome II, Cle - concussion

S John Johnson III, Cle - hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

DE Myles Garrett, Cle - groin

CB Denzel Ward, Cle - groin

COVID LIST

S Grant Delpit, Cle

S Ronnie Harrison, Jr., Cle

CB Troy Hill, Cle

LB Mack Wilson, Cle

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Cle

LB Jacob Phillips, Cle

DT Malik McDowell, Cle

DT Kenny Clark, GB

Ind @ Ari

Targets:

DeForest Buckner (DT, Ind) — Buckner lives in the 3-6 tackle range while posting 6.5 sacks (2 in his last three games) and is normally a 75%-85% participant. That sets him up nicely in a game with one of the highest expected snap counts this week. Add to that the Cardinals produce the 5th-most FPG to DLs this season and Buckner’s prospects are plentiful.

Khari Willis (S, Ind) — Willis has been absent or a part-time player due to injury for much of the season. But in his five full-time games, Willis has between 6 and 9 tackles in each of them. He was healthy last week and posted 9 tackles (5 solo) and is off the injury report for the third straight week, so he should be safe to roll out.

Jalen Thompson (S, Ari) — Thompson has been a top-5 DB season, posting between 6 and 10 tackles in every game since Week Two. He’ll be busy this week trying to keep Jonathan Taylor in front of him. This should be one of the most productive fantasy games on the slate, so we like Thompson’s chances to come through even more than we usually do.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Andrew Sendejo, Ind - concussion

DE Jordan Phillips, Ari - knee

CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ind - illness

COVID LIST

LB Zaire Franklin, Ind

Det @ Atl

Targets:

Charles Harris (DE, Det) — Since Week 10, Harris has been playing 70-90% and producing about 3-6 tackles per game. He’s added 3.5 sacks, 5 TFL, and a forced fumble over his last three games. He’s heating up at the right time, as he has a great matchup this week. The Falcons and that leaky-faucet O-line produce the 4th-most FPG to DLs this season.

Avoids:

Duron Harmon (S, Atl) — With Erik Harris out for the year, Harmon and Jaylinn Hawkins have been the main safeties (with some Richie Grant sprinkled in for three-safety sets). These safeties are likely in for a slow game. The Lions are 31st in FPG to DBs and this game is expected to be the slowest on the slate. That’s double-dipped lowered opportunity. That also pertains to A.J. Terrell but his PD and INT prospects make him start-worthy in CB leagues that reward for those. There’s a good chance Jared Goff sits this one out.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Josh Woods, Det - neck

CB Amani Oruwariye, Det - thumb

QUESTIONABLE

CB Avery Williams, Atl - groin

DE Michael Brockers, Det - knee

LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Det - shoulder

OLB Julian Okwara, Det - ankle

COVID LIST

OLB Emmanuel Ellerbee, ATL

DT Marlon Davidson, ATL

S Jalen Elliott, Det

S Tracy Walker, Det

S Ifeatu Melifonwu, Det

DB Bobby Price, Det

DB Corey Ballentine, Det

DB Nickell Robey-Coleman, Det

TB @ Car

Targets:

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (OLB, TB) — Tryon-Shoyinka, Vita Vea, and Ndamukong Suh have a delicious matchup this week. The Panthers are the 3rd-best matchup for DLs, and Tampa Bay is a double-digit favorite. That’s generally a recipe for solid tackle floor and massive big-play upside. With Jason Pierre-Paul doubtful and Rakeem Nunez-Roches out, the rookie edge rusher is bound to get a ton of snaps this week. That said, I’m feeling good about all three of these DLs this week.

Avoids:

Brian Burns (DE, Car) — Burns has had 3 sacks in his last four games, which has helped mask his sudden drop in tackle production. After hovering around 3-6 tackles per game for much of the season, Burns has had 2 or fewer tackles in four of his last five games. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay O-line that surrenders less than a sack per game. They also don’t run the ball much, creating the fewest tackle chances for DLs this season. You could do a lot worse than starting Burns — who has 9 sacks on the season — but he’s got his work cut out for him.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Lavonte David, TB - foot

S Mike Edwards, TB - knee

S Antoine Winfield, Jr. - foot

DOUBTFUL

OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

CB Richard Sherman, TB - achilles

COVID LIST

DT Derrick Brown, Car

DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches, TB

Bal @ Cin

Targets:

Germaine Pratt (LB, Cin) — Pratt posted 15 tackles (9 solo) in Week 15, filling in for Logan Wilson. He posted 9 tackles in each of his other two starts for Wilson so far. Wilson is out this week, so Pratt should be the every-down LB in line to soak up one of the week’s best matchups for LBs. Baltimore produces the 4th-most FPG to LBs even without Lamar Jackson. In what should be a fairly high-scoring and close game, Pratt should see boatloads of opportunity.

Vonn Bell (S, Cin) — Bell and Jessie Bates III face the 2nd-best offense for DB production this season. The Ravens create 30.5 tackles, 2.5 PD, and almost an INT per game to opposing secondaries, which means I also like Mike Hilton this week.

Patrick Queen (LB, Bal) — I don’t really know what to tell ya. Queen has been one of the most frustrating IDPs this season. You need 7+ tackles? My man has done it six times, including last week when he had 13. You for some odd reason want 4 or fewer tackles from your ILB? Queen’s got you covered, taking home that honor five times, including two weeks ago when had just 2. Flip-flopping from LB1 to LBWTF almost weekly, he’s on this list because of his stellar matchup. The Bengals create the 3rd-most FPG for LBs this season, including 23.8 tackles per game. So what did he do when these two teams met back in Week Seven? He had just 2 tackles. W.T. F. But, he was a 43% participant in that game, and Queen’s snaps have settled into the 85-95% range over the last three weeks. I’m not feeling great about his floor here, but his ceiling can’t be ignored.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Logan Wilson, Cin - shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

DT Calais Campbell, Bal - thigh

OLB Odafe Oweh, Bal - illness

DB Brandon Stephens, Bal - illness

DE Khalid Kareem, Cin - concussion

COVID LIST

CB Jimmy Smith, Bal

CB Chris Westry, Bal

OLB Justin Houston, Bal

OLB Pernell McPhee, Bal

CB Chidobe Awuzie, Cin

LB Clay Johnston, Cin

LAC @ Hou

Targets:

Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph has been a run-stopping force all season. He’s had at least 3 tackles in every game this season, topping 5 tackles four different times. His opponent this week continues to run it a ton even though they’ve trailed for much of the season. The Texans produce the 6th-most FPG to DLs this season, and the lack of Joey Bosa should mean elevated snap counts for Joseph.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Lonnie Johnson, Jr., Hou - quad/shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

S Derwin James, Jr. - hamstring

COVID LIST

OLB Joey Bosa, LAC

DB Tevaughn Campbell, LAC

DB Kemon Hall, LAC

LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, Hou

LB Christian Kirksey, Hou

DB A.J. Moore, Hou

DB Terrance Brooks, Hou

DB Terrance Mitchell, Hou

DE Jonathan Greenard, Hou

DE Jacob Martin, Hou

DE Derek Rivers, Hou

DE Jordan Jenkins, Hou

S Eric Murray, Hou

DE DeMarcus Walker, Hou

LAR @ Min

Targets:

Ernest Jones (LB, LAR) — Jones had another strong outing last week, posting 11 tackles (5 solo) essentially playing every snap. He’ll take that momentum into a matchup against the 6th-best opponent for LB production. The Vikings create 22 tackles for LBs this season, and Jones is about the only regular LB the Rams use.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Greg Gaines, LAR - ankle

COVID LIST

CB Jalen Ramsey, LAR

CB Robert Rochell, LAR

S Jordan Fuller, LAR

DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LAR

OLB Von Miller, LAR

LB Troy Reeder, LAR

Buf @ NE

Targets:

Kyle Dugger (S, NE) — You know Sean McDermott wants this one badly. And with Gabriel Davis now on the COVID list and New England’s corners stingy on the outside, Buffalo’s high-volume passing attack should try to focus on slot matchups and throw across the middle of the field. That will play right into Dugger’s strengths. Buffalo creates the 6th-most FPG for DBs this season.

Avoids:

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Buf) — Edmunds has been a steady 7-8 tackle guy, popping off twice with double-digit tackles. But the cards are stacked against him to get near that double-digit range this week. His opponent ranks 28th in FPG to LBs this season. And this game is expected to be one of the lowest output games of the week. Fewer snaps against a stingy opponent might be a combination Edmunds can’t overcome.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DT Star Lotulelei, Buf - personal

DT Christian Barmore, NE - knee

LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - ribs/ankle

S Adrian Phillips, NE - knee

COVID LIST

LB Tyrell Dodson, Buf

DE A.J. Epenesa, Buf

LB Harvey Langi, NE

LB Cameron McGrone, NE

Jax @ NYJ

Targets:

Andrew Wingard (S, Jax) — Wingard has 8 or more tackles in each of his last three games. With Rayshawn Jenkins injured, Wingard has been picking up the slack. Coming into the week, the Jets possess the 3rd-most FPG given to DBs. Now that EDGE Josh Allen is on the COVID list (and unlikely to turn it around on such short notice), Zach Wilson should have more time in the pocket to test Wingard, making a great matchup even greater.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Elijah Riley, NYJ - concussion

COVID LIST

OLB Josh Allen, Jax

CB Michael Carter, NYJ

LB Blake Cashman, NYJ

NYG @ Phi

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

Jaylon Smith (LB, NYG) — Between his pre-draft nerve injury and his mysterious and sudden releases from both Dallas and Green Bay, it’s been a tumultuous road for Smith so far in the NFL. But just as mysteriously and suddenly, Smith was signed by the Giants and played last week, registering 4 tackles. But he only played 24%, so it’s hard to picture him jumping up to a full-time role this week. Even if he does, his matchup is gross. The Eagles are 31st in FPG to LBs. Look elsewhere for your LB.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DE Leonard Williams, NYG - triceps

DT Austin Johnson, NYG - foot

COVID LIST

OLB Oshane Ximines, NYG

CB Aaron Robinson, NYG

CB Adoree Jackson, NYG

DB Keion Robinson, NYG

DE Ryan Kerrigan, Phi

Chi @ Sea

Targets:

Jordyn Brooks (LB, Sea) — Of course you’re starting Bobby Wagner, but Brooks also is worth firing up. Brooks out-produced Wagner last week and has been a reliable LB2 for much of the season. This week, both Seattle LBs get a top-5 matchup when they face the Bears.

Avoids:

Eddie Jackson (S, Chi) — This is assuming he gets off the COVID list. If not, it’s as big an “avoid” as you can get. What awful timing for your DB2/DB3. Jackson usually hovers around 4-6 tackles a game but has hit 8+ tackles three times in his last six games. But this week is just brutal. The Seahawks are a complete mess on offense, particularly in the passing game. Thus, they are dead last in FPG to DBs. Jackson might be closer to 3-4 tackles this week instead of pushing for double digits.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

CB Blessuan Austin, Sea - hip

COVID LIST

S Eddie Jackson, Chi

CB Artie Burns, Chi

DE Mario Edwards, Chi

S Duke Shellet, Chi

CB Jaylon Johnson, Chi

S Tashaun Gipson, Sr. Chi

S DeAndre Houston-Carter, Chi

DT Akiem Hicks, Chi

DE Kerry Hyder, Jr., Sea

CB D.J. Reed, Sea

Pit @ KC

Targets:

Chris Jones (DT, KC) — Jones was just activated off the COVID list and should be set to play this week. He returns to a good matchup, as the statue formerly known as Ben Roethlisberger and his shaky O-line has been a boon for DLs this season. Pittsburgh allows 1.5 sacks and 2.5 TFLs to DLs.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

COVID LIST

CB Charvarius Ward, KC

LB Willie Gay, KC

CB Rashad Fenton, KC

Den @ LV

Targets:

None of note.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

LB Kenny Young, Den - concussion

S Johnathan Abram, LV - shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

DT Mike Purcell, Den - thumb/neck

DE Shelby Harris, Den - ankle

DL Shamar Stephen, Den - knee

DE Dre’Mont Jones, Den - foot

LB Baron Browning, Den - illness

S Kareem Jackson, Den - back

S Caden Sterns, Den - shoulder/back

LB Denzel Perryman, LV - ankle

LB Will Compton, LV - personal

LB Divine Deablo, LV - shoulder/elbow

DT Johnathan Hankins, LV - back

COVID LIST

DB P.J. Locke, Den

DB Nate Hobbs, LV

DB Trayvon Mullen, LV

Was @ Dal

Targets:

DeMarcus Lawrence (DE, Dal) — Lawrence has been heating up since his return, posting 9 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QB hits, and 3 PD in his last three games. This week, he’ll face a Washington team that creates the 7th-most FPG to DLs. He’s got a strong tackle floor and high big-play upside this week.

Kamren Curl (S, Was) — Curl gets the #1 DB matchup this week. OC Kellen Moore’s offense has been fruitful for DBs for a few years now and this season is no different. This game is also expected to produce the most snaps, which bodes well for Curl’s tackle floor as well. Curl had 8 tackles in their meeting earlier this season.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

OUT

S Landon Collins, Was - foot

S Deshazor Everett, Was - personal

CB William Jackson III, Was - calf

QUESTIONABLE

DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dal - foot

LB Jamin Davis, Was - shoulder

COVID LIST

DT Trysten Hill, Dal

CB Jourdan Lewis, Dal

S Malik Hooker, Dal

DT Osa Odighazuwa, Dal

DT Matt Ioannidis, Was

Mia @ NO

Targets:

Pete Werner (LB, NO) — With Demario Davis going on the COVID list late in the week, there’s a good chance Werner will be taking over for him. If so, he’ll get a nice matchup this week, as the Dolphins produce the 7th-most FPG to LBs this season.

Emmanuel Ogbah (DE, Mia) — Ogbah has a cake matchup this week. Not only is he facing an offense that produces the 8th-most FPG for DLs this season, but he also gets a “fresh meat” QB in Ian Book. The Nigerian Nightmare has 7 sacks on the season and has a crazy-high number of PD (10), giving him some nice big-play upside in a matchup that is ripe for the picking.

Avoids:

None of note.

Notable Injuries:

QUESTIONABLE

DE Marcus Davenport, NO - shoulder

COVID LIST

LB Demario Davis, NO

S Duke Riley, Mia

DB Justin Coleman, Mia

S Malcolm Jenkins, NO

S Jeff Heath, NO

LB Kaden Ellis, NO

Justin has been holding down the IDP fort for John Hansen and the crew since 2015. In addition to projections and articles, he also hosts an all-IDP podcast called “The IDP Corner,” where he is joined by his fellow FantasyPoints IDP contributor Thomas Simons, along with other special guests.