Welcome to the IDP Weekend Preview. Each week we’ll take a close look at each matchup based on several factors such as roles, where offenses are giving up FP, snap counts, and tackle crews. As always, start your studs. I won’t be advising you to target no-brainers like Aaron Donald or Roquan Smith.
A “target” is a player who has a higher chance to come through than usual. An “avoid” is a player who has a lower chance to come through than usual.
Teams on Bye: Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, NY Giants
Atl @ Dal
Targets:
Micah Parsons (LB, Dal) — Parsons is on here because there’s a lot of worry in the Twitterverse about Parsons playing DE with Randy Gregory (calf) out. Parsons had solid games for an ILB playing EDGE for Dallas earlier in the season, posting basically 4 tackles and a sack per game. But that was when Parsons was a part-time player. Now that Parsons plays every down, I expect they will be using him on the edge at times and then in the box the rest of the time. And if he does play mostly on the edge, the Falcons are the 4th-best matchup for DLs. I just can’t sit him, and I don’t think you should either. If he posts a dud, then you can send my hate mail to [looks for Joe Dolan’s address].
Avoids:
Grady Jarrett (DT, Atl) — After some useful production in a few good matchups, Jarrett is set to suffer Lady Luck’s cruelty this week. Not only is Dallas a terrible matchup — 30th in FPG to DLs — Jarrett will likely be missing a few of his linemates to injury. That means more double and possibly triple-teams from one of the better O-lines in the game.
Injuries:
OUT
DB Kendall Sheffield, Atl - hamstring
DE Randy Gregory, Dal - calf
DOUBTFUL
DL Jonathan Bullard, Atl - concussion
DE Steven Means, Atl - knee
QUESTIONABLE
DE John Kaminsky, Atl - shoulder
S Jayron Kearse, Atl - shoulder
Jax @ Ind
Targets:
Josh Allen (DE, Jax) — It’s happening. The “Josh Allen” the Jaguars thought they drafted has entered the building. As DLs can often take a few years to fully develop (particularly on a dysfunctional team), this isn’t surprising. Since Week Five, Allen has been the runaway #1 DL.
Avoids:
DeForest Buckner (DT, Ind) — I already had lowered expectations for Buckner and the Indy D-line, as Jacksonville has been the worst matchup for DLs all season. They’ve been ranked #31 or #32 all year. They don't give up many sacks, and the Jags just don’t run the ball much (29th in run %). When they do, it’s usually not between the tackles. But now that Buckner is dealing with a back issue and the Colts are a 10-point favorite, I’m not confident Buckner will play enough snaps to counter the bad matchup.
Injuries:
OUT
Xavier Rhodes, Ind - calf
QUESTIONABLE
DT DeForest Buckner, Ind - back
LB Darius Leonard, NE - ankle
Cle @ NE
Targets:
John Johnson III (S, NE) — We broke down Johnson’s fantasy free-fall on the IDP Corner a few weeks ago, pointing out that it’s largely his role on a new defense that keeps him from being as reliable for tackles. But if you still have him, this might be the week to get some return on your investment. No team creates more fantasy production for DBs than the Patriots.
Avoids:
Adrian Phillips (S, NE) — Phillips and Kyle Dugger both play closer to the box in three-safety sets while Devin McCourty mans the free safety spot. More often than not, it’s Dugger who is the more productive for fantasy. So in a bad matchup this week, Phillips could be the one who takes the bigger hit production-wise. When it comes to DB fantasy production, the Browns are a bad combination of slow offense (31st in pace) and run-heavy (2nd in run%). Hence, Cleveland is 29th in FPG to DBs. Phillips will be helped some because he spends a good amount of time in the box, but likely not enough to have one of those 7-9 tackle games he’s capable of.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Takkarist McKinley, Atl - groin
DOUBTFUL
OLB Jamie Collins, Sr. - ankle
QUESTIONABLE
DT Malik Jackson, Cle - knee
DE Myles Garrett, Cle - foot
CB Greedy Williams, Cle - shoulder
LB Kyle Van Noy, NE - groin
LB JaWhaun Bentley, NE - ribs
CB Jalen Mills, NE - thigh
Buf @ NYJ
Targets:
A.J. Klein (LB, Buf) — With Tremaine Edmunds out, Klein will move into an every-down role next to Matt Milano this week. Both Klein and Milano have a good matchup this week, as the Jets are 7th in FPG to LBs. Expect that production to come in the form of solid tackle numbers but elevated PD and big-play production. Yes, Mike White has been a revelation. Yes, the Bills defense has had two weeks of game tape to study on White. Yes, the Bills defense is elite and should bring the heat from their LBs to get White to move around.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Tremaine Edmunds, Buf - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
CB Taron Johnson, Buf - concussion
Det @ Pit
Targets:
Joe Schobert (LB, Pit) — Schobert and Devin Bush have the best matchup of the week for LBs. Detroit produces the 2nd-most tackles per game to LBs (25.6) and the most solos per game to LBs (16.8). They’re also vulnerable to LB sacks (0.6 per game) and INTs (0.5 per game). Schobert gets the edge here due to his slightly elevated snap share and production over Bush.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DT Cameron Heyward, Pit - ankle
NO @ Ten
Targets:
Cameron Jordan (DE, NO) — Jordan and Marcus Davenport have a great matchup. Both have been playing well since their bye week and now face the Titans. Tennessee's offense is still bleeding production to opposing D-lines, even without Derrick Henry. They produced 25 tackles to the Rams D-line last week, including 4 tackles and a sack to Aaron Donald, 6 tackles to A’Shawn Robinson, and 5 tackles and a sack to Leonard Floyd. Jordan and Davenport are coming in hot to a great matchup and should see more of the field than usual with fellow DE Payton Turner out.
Jayon Brown (LB, Ten) — Just a few weeks ago, Brown was riding the pine having been benched for David Long. And just like that, Brown has been thrust back into action, as Long is out this week, and Rashaan Evans (questionable) hasn’t practiced in two days after being limited earlier in the week. Brown could be listed as LMS instead of LB this week (Last Man Standing, for those of you scoring at home), but hey we’ll take it. The Saints aren’t a particularly good matchup — 27th in FPG to LBs — so don’t use Brown over your normal LB1s or LB2s. But if you’re hurting at LB, Brown should be solid this week.
Avoids:
Kevin Byard (S, Ten) — Byard has had some solid games for fantasy this season, but that’s mostly due to his 5 INTs and 2 TDs. Tackle-wise, he hasn’t passed 4 tackles in a game since Week Five. To make matters worse, New Orleans is dead last in DB fantasy production. His big-play upside can’t be denied, but color me worried about that dangerously low tackle floor this week.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Payton Turner, NO - shoulder
S CJ Gardner-Johnson, NO - foot
LB David Long, Jr., Ten - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
DE Carl Granderson, NO - shoulder
DT Jeffery Simmons, Ten - ankle
OLB Bud Dupree, Ten - knee
OLB Harold Landry, Ten - hamstring
LB Rashaan Evans, Ten - ankle
TB @ Was
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Chase Young (DE, Was) — Young has had quite the sophomore slump. His 1.5 sacks so far have been hugely disappointing, but at least he’s getting about 3-4 tackles per game as a decent floor. Greg Cosell has noticed that Young has been freelancing a lot, which sounds fun! It’s not, when it comes to defenses. This week could be the worst for Young. Control freak Tom Brady throws basically the whole game, resulting in the league-lowest run %. And with one of the better O-lines and the spritely old Brady a master of evading pressure, the Bucs produce bottom-5 production to DLs. And with bookend Montez Sweat out, Tampa Bay can focus on eliminating Young. This should also be a slow game for tackle-monsters Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.
Injuries:
OUT
DE Montez Sweat, Was - jaw
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, TB - shoulder/hand
Car @ Ari
Targets:
Jalen Thompson (S, Ari) — Thompson was already the better fantasy producer over Budda Baker, but Baker (questionable) is dealing with a knee injury and a concussion. That could mean less tackle competition for Thompson, who has a top-10 matchup this week.
Chandler Jones (OLB, Ari) — Jones announced his presence with authority with 5 sacks in Week One, but then cooled off all the way down to a frigid two week stretch of zero production. He’s heated back up recently, with a sack last week and 4 tackles over his last two games. This week, he gets a backup QB and an offense that produces the 2nd-most FPG to D-lines.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Brian Burns, Car - foot
S Budda Baker, Ari - concussion/knee
DE Jordan Phillips, Ari - groin
PROBABLE
CB Stephon Gilmore, Car - quad
Min @ LAC
Targets:
Linval Joseph (DT, LAC) — Joseph’s 41 tackles are 5th-most for DLs and his 8.6 FPG put him in the top 20. He’s been a great fit on this revamped Chargers defense and should see more snaps than usual this week. This game is expected to be one of the fastest games in terms of pace this week.
Nick Vigil (LB, Min) — When Anthony Barr was out earlier this season, Vigil was a borderline LB1, hitting at least 8 tackles in three straight games. Barr will miss Week 10, putting Vigil back on the LB2 map. It’s not a great matchup by the numbers, as the Chargers are 28th in LB FPG, but Vigil is a solid bye-week fill-in.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DT Michael Pierce, Min - elbow
LB Anthony Barr, Min - knee
CB Ryan Smith, LAC - knee
DOUBTFUL
CB Michael Davis, LAC - hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
CB Bashaud Breeland, Min - groin
DE Joey Bosa, LAC - ankle
S Nasir Adderley, LAC - ankle
Phi @ Den
Targets:
Kareem Jackson (S, Den) — Jackson and Justin Simmons could be busier than usual this week, as ILB Baron Browning is banged up. Alliteration aside, these two safeties have been the leading tacklers behind an LB unit that’s 80% bailing wire and chewing gum. And with yet another injury to the linebackers, there’s a good chance Jackson and Simmons will be charged with even more tackling duties this week. Browning is questionable.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
DE Shelby Harris, Den - illness
OLB Malik Reed, Den - hip
ILB Baron Browning, Den - back
CB Pat Surtain II, Den - knee
Sea @ GB
Targets:
None of note.
Avoids:
Adrian Amos (S, GB) — Amos has run hot and cold this year, and this might be a cold week. The Seahawks have been bad for opposing DB fantasy production — 31st overall — and that’s not just because they haven’t had Russell Wilson. Wilson returns this week, but Seattle was stingy to DBs before Wilson was injured.
Injuries:
OUT
S Marquise Blair, Sea - knee
DB Blessuan Austin, Sea - NIR
QUESTIONABLE
DT Kenny Clark, GB - back
KC @ LV
Targets:
Johnathan Abram (S, LV) — Abram has been one of the most reliable DBs this season, which is quite the turnaround from last season where he was one of the least reliable DBs for fantasy. The Chiefs roll into town dragging their 10th-best FPG to DBs behind them. Despite his struggles, Patrick Mahomes has not stopped chucking it downfield, so Abram will be busy this week.
Avoids:
Chris Jones (DT, KC) — Jones and Frank Clark face a Raiders team that is 26th in run % and boasts an above average O-line. Las Vegas allows the 2nd-fewest FPG to DLs this season, so this could be a week to look elsewhere for your DL slot.
Injuries:
OUT
LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LV - ankle
DOUBTFUL
CB Amik Robertson, LV - hip
LAR @ SF
Targets:
Ernest Jones (LB, LAR) — Jones saw his snaps dip in Week Nine, but he was dealing with an injury and was questionable heading into the game. This week, he’s off the injury report and has a top-10 matchup against the 49ers.
Avoids:
None of note.
Injuries:
OUT
DOUBTFUL
S Tavon Wilson, SF - foot
QUESTIONABLE
OLB Von Miller, LAR - ankle
CB Darious Williams, LAR - ankle
DL Maurice Hurst, SF - calf
DE Arden Key, SF - oblique
CB Josh Norman, SF - rib
DB Jimmie Ward, SF - quadricep
CB Emmanuel Moseley, SF - neck
