Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).
For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill, NO at NYJ ($5.6K DK | $7.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 8-10%
FanDuel: 7-9%
Week 13 Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Results: 264 passing yards, two TDs, four INTs, 101 rushing yards
Week 14 Opponent: New York Jets
Schemes: 11th-highest rate of Cover 3 & 3rd-highest of Cover 4
Allowances:
The most FPG to opposing offenses (102.6)
3rd-most pure passing FPG (17.0)
4th-most passing YPG (263.4)
2nd-highest completion rate (71%)
2nd-most YPA (7.82)
3rd-highest completion rate on 20-plus/deep targets (18.6%)
The highest passing first down rate (40.5%)
The most FPG on the ground (20.3)
3rd-most rushing YPG (133.4)
7th-most YPC (4.5)
4th-highest rate of 20-plus yard runs (3.11%)
The most rushing TDs/game (1.75)
The most total YPG (396.8)
The most PPG allowed to opposing teams (30.6)
Scheme History of Success:
vs. Cover 4: Hill hasn’t faced anywhere near enough dropbacks for reliable considerations
vs. Cover 3: if Hill’s data qualified, his 0.51 FPs/dropback would rank 3rd-best
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: I’m relatively frugal with my bankroll. I know that, at any moment, I may be forced to withdraw a significant percentage of my total in support of my family. I’ve only ever invested 20% of my bankroll in a single player, in a single game on one occasion. The previous instance took place in Week 11 of last season when the Saints hosted the Falcons. Hill just happened to have TE eligibility… and was announced as the starting QB. I was not displeased with the results of that investment. I’ll be making an identical investment in Hill this week.
Ryan Tannehill, JAX vs. TEN ($6.4K DK | $7.3K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 12 Opponent: New England Patriots
Results: 93 passing yards, one TD, one INT, 24 rushing yards
Week 5 at Jacksonville: Won 37-19; Tannehill’s 149 passing yards, 1 TD, 123.8 passer rating at the half placed him at profit pace; Derrick Henry dominated the 2nd half to close the game with a 29/130/3 rushing line
Week 14 Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Schemes: Cover 1 and Cover 3 at the 13th-highest rates
Allowances:
14th-most FPG to QBs (17.63)
11th-most FPG to QBs through the air (15.1)
10th-most FPG to QBs over the last two weeks (17.1)
The highest completion rate (71%)
4th-most YPA (7.5)
9th-highest rate of 20+ completions (16%)
4th-most PPG allowed to opposing teams (26.7)
Scheme History of Success:
Cover 1 and 3, combined, last three seasons: 37 TDs vs. 12 INTs
vs. Cover 1, Last 3 seasons (40 games): 8th-highest FP/Db (0.50), 9th-highest passer rating (101.4), and 2nd-highest rate of play action (35%)
vs. Cover 1, Last 3 seasons (40 games): 9th-most FP/Db (0.43), 8th-highest passer rating (100.1), 8th-highest increase in YPA (13%), and 2nd-highest rate of play action (45%)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: The impact Julio Jones’ return from IR will make for the Tennessee passing game this week is incalculable. In five games this season where Tannehill had the services of either Brown or Jones on at least 50% of team passing plays, he covered his floor in four (80%).
Favorite Alternatives
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. LV ($8.0K DK | *$8.5K FD *| ExpOwn: 12-15% | Game: CASH/SE)
*Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs. DAL ($5.5K DK *| $7.1K FD | ExpOwn: 12-15% | Game: CASH/SE)**
Trevor Lawrence, JAX at TEN ($5.1K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson, DAL at WAS ($6.0K DK | $7.4K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 27-30%
- FanDuel: 8-10%
Week 13 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Results: 28 touches, 88 rushing yards, 5/23/1 receiving line
Week 14 Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Allowances:
7th-most YPC (4.5)
2nd-highest rate of 20-plus yard runs (3.7%)
17th-most Goal-to-Go (GTG) carries (1.75)
13th-most rushing TDs/game (0.92)
Other:
The last time Gibson faced Dallas (2020 Week 12), he generated 39.6 FPs during Washington’s 41-16 Thanksgiving Day victory
20% of the target share for Gibson in back-to-back games
He touched the ball on 46% of Washington’s offensive snaps, while accounting for 37% of the total yardage in Week 13
Game Type: CASH/Single-Entry (SE)
The Bottom Line: Despite J.D. McKissic being listed as questionable, he is just 14 days removed from suffering what appeared to be a horrible concussion. The teams in this game combine for the highest pace of play of Week 14 and, with a 6-6 record, Washington has a 54% chance to make the playoffs. Count on seeing the white gloves with Gibson’s usage on the ground in this absolute must win situation.
D’Onta Foreman, JAX vs. TEN ($5.1K DK | $5.9K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: <1%
Week 13 Opponent: New England Patriots
Results: 20 touches, 109 rushing yards, 1/3/0 receiving line
Week 14 Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Allowances:
5th-most FPG on the ground (15.8)
5th-most GTG carries/game (2.67)
6th-most RZ touches/game (4.75)
8th-most FPG to RBs over the last 4 weeks (26.8)
8th-most FPG to RBs over the last 2 weeks (31.3)
4th-most PPG allowed to opposing teams (26.7)
Other:
Nobody can replicate the presence of Derrick Henry, but Foreman proved himself as enough of a threat on the ground to force opposing defenses to respect the run
When a defense respects the run, play action efficiency improves
Tennessee trusts Foreman enough in the early role that they released Adrian Peterson
That places play action back into Ryan Tannehill’s pocket… sorely missed in recent weeks
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: The receiving work is unsettled with Jeremy McNichols returning and Dontrell Hilliard also in the mix. What is entirely clear is that D’Onta has the early-down role locked down. Foreman will see a 50+% carry share with serious TD potential.
Favorite Alternatives
Leonard Fournette, TB vs. BUF ($7.4K DK | $7.6K FD | ExpOwn: 24-27%% | Game: CASH/SE)
Jeff Wilson, SF at CIN ($4.4K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 24-27% | Game: CASH/SE)
James Robinson, JAX at TEN ($5.8K DK | $6.4K FD | ExpOwn: 3-5% | Game: GPP)
Rashaad Penny, SEA at HOU ($4.8K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill, KC vs. LV ($8.5K DK | $8.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 7-10%
- FanDuel: 11-14%
Week 13 Opponent: Denver Broncos
Results: 2/22/0 receiving line on 5 targets
Week 14 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances:
9th-highest completion rate (67%)
6th-most FPG to WRs the last four weeks (37.2)
7th-most PPG allowed to opposing teams (26.0)
Individual Matchup: Brandon Facyson
Coverage Metrics: 1.45 yards allowed/coverage snap (15th-most), 0.37 FPs/coverage snap (3rd-most), 0.33 air yards/coverage snap (2nd-most), a 118.8 targeted passer rating (7th-highest), and the 7th-highest completion rate on deep throws
Scheme History (Cover 3):
During his last 39 games, 10th-most FPs/Route (0.46)
4th-most TDs among all WRs (4)
Other:
- Against the Raiders in Week 10, Hill produced a 7/83/2 line on 10 targets (27.5/24.0 FPs)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: After DC Gus Bradley exhausted himself attempting to keep Hill in the vicinity of Casey Hayward Jr.’s zone in Week 10 — without any success at all —we may see the Raiders allow the matchups to work themselves out on their own in Week 14. Even if he follows the same strategy, OC Eric Bieniemy insists on shifting Hill all over the formation in order to create specific matchups. And matchup-based play has been a massive issue for Las Vegas’ defense this season. I will have a heavy Hill investment in Tyreek 14 😛.
Hunter Renfrow, LV at KC ($6.1K DK | $6.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 14-17%
- FanDuel: 14-17%
Week 13 Opponent: Washington Football Team
Results: 9/102/0 receiving line on 10 targets
Week 14 Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Schemes: 2nd-highest rate of Cover 2, no team has used it at a higher rate since Week 6
Allowances:
4th-highest FPG rate from the slot (61%)
9th-most passing YPR (252.5)
6th-most YPA (7.25)
7th-most total YPG (367.7)
13th-most FP/CS against play action (0.36)
3rd-most receptions on play action (100)
8th-highest Targeted Passer Rating against play action (120.8)
5th-highest completion rate on play action (79.4%)
6th-highest completion rate on play action throws of 20-plus yards (24%)
Individual Matchup: L’Jarius Sneed
Coverage Metrics: 1.35 yards allowed/coverage snap (10th-most), 0.32 FPs/coverage snap (4th-most), and a 107.1 targeted passer rating (9th-highest)
Scheme History:
Renfrow was put on the Earth to destroy Cover 2
41-game career: Leads all qualified WRs with 0.52 FP/Rt
2nd-most YPRR (2.85)
Draws the 2nd-highest target share (27%) when defenses put Cover 2 on the field
Other:
Earning 31% of his total FPG output on play action (4.72)
13th-most FPs/Route among all qualified WRs this season (0.466)
Posted the highest WR output on the Washington defense since Week 7 (22.2/14.7 FPs)
Manufactured a 7/46/1 line on 9 targets (17.6/14.1 FPs) vs. Kansas City in Week 10
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: With a 20+% target share in seven of his last nine games, Renfrow has become the focal point of the passing offense. And he’ll be working against one of the highest rates of the coverage scheme where he’s the best in the business at exploiting. Pretty simple, if you ask me.
Tyler Lockett, SEA at HOU ($6.7K DK | $7.3K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 2-4%
- FanDuel: 3-5%
Week 13 Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Results: 7/68/1 receiving line on 8 targets
Week 14 Opponent: Houston Texans
Scheme: 6th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2
Allowances:
13th-most FPG to opposing WRs (35.4)
2nd-most FPG to WRs aligned wide (18.8)
4th-most RZ touches/game (1.92)
7th-most YPA (7.23)
7th-highest completion rate on throws of 40-plus (3.49%)
3rd-highest passing first down rate (38.5%)
2nd-most FP/CS on play action (0.47)
4th-most passing yards on play action (1,238)
4th-most TDs on play action (9)
3rd-highest YPA on play action (15.1)
6th-highest Targeted Passer Rating on play action (123.7)
8th-highest completion rate on play action throws of 20-plus yards (22%)
3rd-most PPG allowed to opposing teams (26.9)
Individual Matchup: Terrance Mitchell
Coverage Metrics: 1.14 yards allowed/coverage snap (35th-most), 0.28 FPs/coverage snap (26th-most), and a 97.6 targeted passer rating (33rd-highest)
Scheme History (previous 44 games):
Cover 1: 0.41 FP/Rt (39th-most), 9.8 YPT (26th-most), and a 120.0 TPR (18th-highest)
Cover 2: 0.34 FP/Rt (28th-most), 1.89 YPRR (25th-most), 11.3 YPT (19th-highest), and a 122.1 TPR (15th-most)
Other:
- 41% of Lockett’s total FPG gained on play action (6.14)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: One of the rare examples where I’m less concerned with the specific scheme or individual coverage matchup. Lockett churns out production on defenses unable to defend play action, and the Texans are one of the bottom-five in that department.
Favorite Alternatives
Elijah Moore, NYJ vs. NO ($5.9K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: 20-23% | Game: CASH/SE)
Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. DAL ($7.0K DK | $7.1K FD | ExpOwn: 10-12% DK | 24-27% FD | Game: CASH/SE)
Marvin Jones, JAX at TEN ($4.5K DK | $5.4K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Lil’Jordan Humphrey, NO at NYJ ($3.2K DK | $4.8K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski, TB vs. BUF ($6.0K DK | $7.0K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 7-10%
- FanDuel: 4-7%
Week 13 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Results: 4/58/2 receiving line on 8 targets
Week 14 Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Schemes: 5th-highest rate of Cover 1, the highest rate in two of the last three weeks
Scheme History (Cover 1):
Since returning from retirement: The most FPs/Route (0.74)
4th-best Targeted Passer Rating (126.8)
2nd-Most AY/Tgt (14.0)
4th-most YPRR (2.52)
4th-most YPT (9.9)
Draws the 3rd-highest target share (27%) when defenses put Cover 1 on the field
On 22% of his routes, he’s collected 29% of his receptions, 32% of his yardage, and 53% of his TDs
Other:
Leads all TEs with 0.586 FPs/Route this season
2nd-most FPG (16.6)
5th-most Targets/game (6.7)
2nd-most YPRR (2.27)
4th-most Air Yards/game (69.6)
9th-most Air Yards/Target (10.4)
5th-highest Targeted Passer Rating (130.0)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Why am I okay with the fact that Buffalo is only giving up 8.1 FPG to TEs (2nd-fewest)? They’ve been carrying out their business across mere mortals. As the top TE to ever step onto a football field, Gronk has not only built his career around Super Bowl victories, he’s the finest TE example to ever attack Cover 1.
Dalton Schultz, DAL at WAS ($5.4K DK | $5.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 13 Opponent: New Orleans Saints
Results: 5/43/0 receiving line on 5 targets
Week 14 Opponent: Washington Football Team
Schemes: 7th-highest rate of Cover 4 and top-15 rates of Cover 2 and 3
Allowances:
12th-most FP/CS (0.365)
5th-most Air Yards/Tgt on play action (10.3)
7th-highest completion rate on play action deep targets (23%)
Scheme History:
During his last 44 games: 12th-most FPs/Route against Cover 2 (0.40)
3rd-highest reception rate vs. Cover 2 (23%)
3rd-highest TD rate vs. Cover 2 (13%)
12th-most FPs/Route against Cover 3 (0.39)
4th-highest Targeted Passer Rating vs. Cover 3 (132.1)
Collected 31% of yardage and 38% of TDs on only 23% of routes vs. Cover 3
Other:
Earned 35% of his FPG total on play action this season (3.93)
8th-highest Targeted Passer Rating on play action (137.7)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: If this game turns into another grind similar to what Washington has forced the last two weeks, Schultz is going to be a popular target. If this game turns into another shootout similar to what Dallas has forced eight times this season, Schultz is going to be a popular target. Dak Prescott is one of the top-two QBs in the game when facing Cover 3. And Schultz is one the top-seven TEs in the game against both Cover 2 and Cover 3. I like those odds.
Favorite Alternatives
Mark Andrews, BAL at CLE ($5.9K DK | $6.9K FD | ExpOwn: 10-13% | Game: CASH/SE)
Dawson Knox, BUF at TB ($5.0K DK | $6.0K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN vs. DET ($3.1K DK | $4.7K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City Chiefs, KC vs. LV ($3.3K DK | $3.7K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 2-4% (GPP)
- FanDuel: 9-11% (CASH/SE)
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC vs. NYG ($4.3K DK | $4.3K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 1-3% (GPP)
- FanDuel: 21-24% (CASH/SE)
Favorite Alternatives
Seattle Seahawks, SEA at HOU ($3.1K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: 18-21% | Game: CASH/SE)
Baltimore Ravens, BAL at CLE ($2.8K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1-3% | Game: GPP)
