Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. NO ($6.2K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
The loss of Derrick Henry is brutal for a team that has already played the fifth-most difficult schedule and are currently tied with the Cardinals for the highest odds to make the playoffs. That said, here is quote from King Henry’s high school HC Bobby Ramsey from eight years ago after he broke his tibia during spring practices prior to his true freshman season:
Henry returned to practice well before Alabama’s first game of the season against Virginia Tech.
We will see Henry return from the fractured fifth metatarsal bone (Jones fracture) in his right foot in time for the playoffs. Count on it. But Tennessee must get to that point first. There is no question that a bright spotlight has been placed upon Ryan Tannehill. That said, it’s just his opportunity to showcase why he’s been one of the very best QBs in the game since joining the Titans. How good? His FPs/dropback (FP/Db) averages rank inside the top-10 qualified QBs against Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 4!
The Bottom Line: The Saints are using the fifth-highest rates of both Cover 1 and Cover 4.
Across his 48 starts for Tennessee, Tannehill has generated the seventh-highest FP/Db (0.47) and passer rating (98.4), and connected for 30 TDs vs. 9 INTs against Cover 1. And his 0.38 FP/Db ranks fourth-best against Cover 4 and his 97.4 passer rating is sixth-best since the beginning of the 2018 season. By the way, those numbers don’t even account for the 805 rushing yards and 16 TDs he’s collected on the ground.
Baker Mayfield, CLE at NE ($5.4K DK | $6.8K FD | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Patriots’ GM/HC/DC Bill Belichick has featured the fourth-highest rate of man schemes, and second-highest rate of Cover 1 this season. Sans last blowout of the Panthers, New England has put a Cover 1 on the field for at least 20 defensive snaps, and at least 17 dropbacks by the opposing QB. Why is that significant? Bear with me, we’ll get there.
We all check out the schedules when released to identify the matchups of note, many times using it to adjust our rankings for season-long drafts. And the Browns’ schedule highlights why preseason schedule evaluations can be extremely volatile. Through nine games, Cleveland should have already played six matchups (67%) against Cover 1-heavy defenses. The Chiefs (W1), Texans (W2), Vikings (W4), Cardinals (W6), Steelers (W8), and Bengals (W9) all made the decision to feature zone schemes in place of Cover 1.
One team on the schedule actually shifted toward featuring Cover 1, Denver (W7), but Baker Mayfield wasn’t able to play in the Broncos’ game due to injury. In Mayfield’s 54 career starts, his 0.46 FP/Db and 98.2 passer rating against Cover 1 both rank eighth-best among qualified QBs. He’s thrown 30% of his career TDs on only 24% of career dropbacks when doing his work across from Cover 1. That includes 26 TDs strikes vs. 7 INTs.
The Bottom Line: When Cincinnati put man coverages on the field last week, Mayfield completed 6-of-9 attempts for 82 yards and a TD to David Njoku (132.5 passer rating). If you ever wonder why Mayfield looks so damn good one week, then appears to be a completely different player the next, you can put together a very short list that starts with the number of man coverage plays the opposing defense put on the field that week.
Capped at 5% Expected Ownership
Russell Wilson, SEA at GB ($6.7K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: <5%)
Capped at 2% Expected Ownership
Mike White, NYJ vs. BUF ($5.1K DK | $6.7K FD | ExpOwn: <2%)
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon III, DEN vs. PHI ($5.3K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
If seeing Melvin Gordon III listed immediately brings “MEH” to your mind, you are not alone. I really had to dive into this matchup in order to convince myself that he might just be a solid matchup value in the spot at home against the Eagles. Allow me to present the obvious: Philadelphia is surrendering the fourth-most FPG to RBs (28.5), 13th-most rushing YPG (119.7), eighth-most rushing TDs/game (1.11), and the fifth-highest third down conversion rate (44%). They’ve actually done quite well in run defense the last two weeks, giving up only 73 YPG and 0.5 TDs/game. However, it should be noted that they were facing the Chargers (ninth-worst rushing offense) and Lions (seventh-worst). In the two games prior to that against the Raiders (fifth-worst rushing offense) and Bucs (eighth-worst), they handed out 110.5 YPG and 2.0 TDs/game. From Weeks 2 thru 7, they allowed 131 YPG and 1.8 TDs/game. And those numbers are not accounting for permitting the eighth-most pure receiving FPG to RBs (13.0).
The Bottom Line: During the last two games, Gordon has a 16% carry advantage and has run a route on 19% more passing plays than Javonte Williams. I’m anticipating that Denver will take this game, bolstering the possibility that we may see both do well from a positive script… precisely as we saw last week. But Gordon is averaging more FPs/touch 0.90 vs. 0.76, 27% more pure rushing FPG, 15% more pure receiving FPG, and 12% more goal line carries/game.
JD McKissic, WAS vs. TB ($5.2K DK | $5.4K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
I am expecting big things from J.D. McKissic in Week 10. “Big” as in providing profit over floor value. To get us there, we need those receiving numbers. And those numbers are difficult to come by with the half PPR scoring on FD. To be crystal clear, McKissic is only being recommended on DK. In three of his four games where McKissic hit value, he was facing a defense (Giants, Falcons, and Chiefs) ranking in the top-10 in the most pure receiving FPG allowed. And, while the Buccaneers are closing down pure rushing FPG production to the fewest in the league (6.8), they are allowing the third-most through the air (15.3).
The Bottom Line: Maybe it’s just me, but it makes sense that a RB receiving specialist that has averaged the seventh-most pure receiving FPG (9.0) will do well in the matchups against defenses vulnerable to receiving backs. If these ownership expectations hold up, we can have what will essentially be exclusive exposure to one of the top RBs at playing from a negative script, and playing in a game where Washington is currently a 9.5-point underdog.
Capped at 10% Expected Ownership
Najee Harris, PIT vs. DET ($7.9K DK | *$9.4K FD *| ExpOwn: <10%)
Capped at 5% Expected Ownership
Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ARI ($8.4K DK | $9.0K FD | ExpOwn: 4-5% DK | <1% FD)
Capped at 2% Expected Ownership
James Robinson, JAX at IND ($6.2K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: <2%) *Check Status
Eno Benjamin, ARI vs. CAR ($4.4K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, TB at WAS ($6.9K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 8-9%)
Nobody needs to convince you on the merits of investing in either The GOAT or Mike Evans. I’m not even going to waste your time in that regard.
A knee injury picked up in training camp flared up, keeping William Jackson III out of the last two games. He’s very likely heading toward a third-straight since he’s yet to practice this week.
If he is ruled out, Evans will mainly be defended by rookie Benjamin St-Juste. And St. Juste is allowing the eighth-most yards/coverage snap (1.69), 12th-most FPs/coverage snap (0.34), 20th-most air yards/coverage snap (0.33), 16th-highest targeted passer rating (114.5), and eighth-highest 20-plus yard completion rate.
The Bottom Line: Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski were already ruled out for Week 10. So, the fact that Chris Godwin is going to be a game-time decision needs to be monitored. If Godwin is inactive, Evans is going to be very highly owned. If Godwin plays, Evans is going to sit outside the top 12-15 WRs in ownership. With Washington surrendering the third-most receptions, yards, and second-most TDs and red zone touches to WRs this season, Evans could submit a slate-busting performance with a struggling rookie corner trailing behind.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE at NE ($4.8K DK | $5.6K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
I watched a lot of film on Donovan Peoples-Jones this week. The version we are seeing on the field this season is significantly different from the one from last year. He appears a bit bigger, faster, separating off the line cleaner, and his route running is more crisp. In fact, he has been tossing some very good corners aside with one arm, with consistency. The targets just have not been there… yet. Now that OBJs ego has been sent packing and Rashard Higgins has been moved down the depth chart, Cleveland appears to be committed to providing DPJ and the world-class speed of Anthony Schwartz with the opportunity to succeed. And, as mentioned in Mayfield’s write-up, the Browns haven’t been facing Cover 1 teams.
The Bottom Line: During DPJs 19-game career, no other qualified WR has seen a higher increase in FPs/route (FP/Rt) against Cover 1 than his astounding 67% bump. He ranks with the 13th-highest FPs/route against Cover 1 (0.58). On 26% of his career routes across from Cover 1, he’s collected 35% of his receptions, 38% of his yardage, and 60% of his TDs. I’ll state it again: the Patriots have used Cover 1 at the second-highest rate this season.
Tajae Sharpe, ATL at DAL ($3.9K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
During the bye weeks, we have to put a lot of effort into differentiating our GPP lineups. Since Tajae Sharpe is listed with his own analysis, am I anticipating he’ll go ballistic on the Cowboys? Of course not. We only need an assurance that he could at least provide floor value at his pricing to provide salary relief toward chasing down some of the other high-priced, overlooked studs. Sharpe has quietly run away with Atlanta’s starting job in the slot. And he has done well against Cover 1 during the last three seasons. The Cowboys are using the third-highest rate of Cover 1 this season. Intrigued?
The Bottom Line: I always try to close out the WRs with a very deep upside option. On 25% of Sharpe’s routes when opposed by Cover 1 during his last 43 games, Sharpe has assembled 34% of his receptions, 31% of his yardage, and 67% of his total TDs. He matched Russell Gage by running 86% of team routes last week. But Gage got 29% of the targets, Sharpe received 4%. When Gage was being blanketed by Donte Jackson in Week 8, Matt Ryan devoted 23% of the targets to Sharpe. Gage will be dealing with Trevon Diggs this week. If Sharpe can garner another 20+% target share, we could be in business for some profit.
Capped at 10% Expected Ownership
*A.J. Brown, TEN vs. NO ($7.8K DK *| $7.6K FD | ExpOwn: 8-9%)**
Capped at 5% Expected Ownership
Stefon Diggs, BUF at NYJ ($7.5K DK | $7.9K FD | ExpOwn: 8-9% DK | *4-5% *FD)
Capped at 2% Expected Ownership
Emmanuel Sanders, BUF at NYJ ($5.7K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: <2%)
Capped at 1% Expected Ownership
Robby Anderson, CAR at ARI ($4.4K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox, BUF at NYJ ($4.5K DK | $5.8K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
We all want a piece of the Bills’ passing offense facing the Jets this week. New York is delivering the second-most FPG to opposing offenses this season, the most over the last four weeks. Returning from hand surgery, Dawson Knox averaged 18.8 FPG in the three games prior to his injury. He scored five TDs in the four games prior to that injury. The only explanation I can provide to explain the low ownership expectations are concerns he’ll be slow to reintegrate, and his TE11/TE11 pricing.
The Bottom Line: Knox is tied with Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, and C.J. Uzomah with five TD receptions. But he collected his five in three less games.
David Njoku, CLE at NE ($3.2K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
It’s a weekly dice roll with our TE options. You either commit those precious dollars or find your weekly punt. In the Browns’ last three games, David Njoku and Austin Hooper have both run routes on exactly 49.5% of team passing plays. Njoku is my TE punt choice this week since Cleveland will face the Cover 1-heavy New England defense.
The Bottom Line: During Njoku’s last 43 games, he’s run 23% of his routes against Cover 1. He’s collected 24% of his receptions, 30% of his total yardage, and 38% of TDs. He ranks 12th-best with 0.39 FP/Rt over that time against Cover 1, adding the 12th-best targeted passer rating (115.1). And he hooked up with Mayfield last week on 3rd-and-18 in the fourth quarter for an 18-yard TD against Cover 0. Not Cover 1, but still working against man coverage.
Capped at 5% Expected Ownership
Zach Ertz, ARI vs. CAR ($4.6K DK | $5.2K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Capped at 2% Expected Ownership
Hunter Henry, NE vs. CLE ($4.1K DK | $5.4K FD | ExpOwn: <2%)
Capped at 1% Expected Ownership
Geoff Swaim, TEN vs. NO ($2.5K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC vs. MIN ($2.9K DK | $3.3K FD | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Denver Broncos, DEN vs. PHI ($3.2K DK | $4.0K FD | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Capped at 5% Expected Ownership
Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. NO ($2.6K DK | *$4.5K FD *| ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Capped at 2% Expected Ownership
Indianapolis Colts, IND vs. JAX ($3.6K DK | $4.8K FD | ExpOwn: <2%)
Capped at 1% Expected Ownership
Seattle Seahawks, SEA at GB ($2.5K DK | $4.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1%)
