Man, the propage has been tough this year, and I once again got completely hosed by 1-2 yards or a half a catch on several calls last week, so last week was like 1 catch and 4 yards away from 8-7. I’m also losing some due to pure ridiculousness. But the good news I may have actually started a trend back to positivity last week because I was very close to a solid week.
At this point, I’m expecting positive regression in the luck department.
Last week’s record: 6-9
Season record: 38-45
Mike Williams (LAC vs. Jax) OVER 40.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – Wow, am I missing something here? Maybe the Chargers won’t have to throw much, but I have Williams projected to beat this by 33.5 yards, since the Jags have no pass rush and stink in the secondary, so this one’s coming in.
Diontae Johnson (Pit at Ten) OVER 47.5 receiving yards on FANDUEL – In two healthy games this year, Johnson has had a 30% target share or better, so while Chase Claypool has clearly deserved more looks, I still think Johnson is the one. And the Titans will NOT get corner Adoree Jackson back, which is huge because the two starting corners are quite slow and vulnerable. In a possible shootout, Diontae’s getting this unless he gets…well, you know.
Gio Bernard (Cin vs. Cle ) OVER 50.5 rushing yards on DK – Obviously, Gio’s in the driver’s seat for the bulk of their carries, and with Baker Mayfield struggling badly, you have to think Gio can get 15+ carries. The Browns are giving up 4.2 YPC the last four weeks, so they’re okay, but not great. It may be close (aren’t they all with my picks this year?), but he’s gotta hit this.
Stefon Diggs (Buf at NYJ) OVER 5.5 receptions on BETMGM – It seems like I’m taking advantage of a lot of lines that are off and don’t represent some injury situations, but hey, I’ll take it. With John Brown and Dawson Knox out, we’ll continue to see Josh Allen pepper Diggs with targets, especially since Allen needs to snap out of his mini funk. Diggs has had 6 or more catches in all their games but one this year (4), and that was against Jalen Ramsey and the tough Rams defenses. These are the lowly Jets.
Tre’Quan Smith (NO vs. Car) OVER 43.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – I would think this line was set before the news that Michael Thomas and Emmanual Sanders will play. Regardless, before vanishing in Week 5 with only 3 targets, while Sanders saw 14, Smith posted 86, 42, and 54 yards on 17 targets and with that WITH Sanders on the field.
Derrick Henry (Ten vs. Pit ) UNDER 22.5 rushing attempts on DK – I’ve seen all of Henry’s games, and last week matchups really helped make him look a lot better than he had been (at least I think that). Their replacement LT Taylor Lewan is a good run-blocker, but the Titans are still going without their best player on the OL and a pro bowler. And the Steeler defense is a bad matchup for Henry, plus I see Pittsburgh getting it done majorly in the passing game, so Henry’s not getting 23 carries.
D’Andre Swift (Det at Atl) OVER 21.5 receiving yards on DK – The Falcons are pretty good against the run, so it may not be a big day for Adrian Peterson. In addition, there’s a solid chance Atlanta stays hot at home in the passing game with a good matchup, so the Lions could easily be playing from behind. They would be insane not to go back to Swift in the passing game, since he’s averaging 4 catches a game. The Falcons are giving up 7.8 receptions per game to opposing RBs the last four weeks, so he should be good for 4-5 grabs.
James Robinson (Jax at LAC) OVER 2.5 receptions on BETMGM – The Jags had to put Chris Thompson on the Covid-19 list and the Jags are a lot to be playing from behind, plus the Chargers are giving up 8.5 RB receptions per game to RBs, so this one looks like a lock.
Latavius Murray (NO vs. Car) OVER 39.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – The Panthers are still bad against the run, and it would make a ton of sense to let Murray handle at least half of their rushing load with such a good matchup. I have him with 60 rushing yards, which is a large discrepancy.
Duke Johnson (Hou vs. GB) OVER 9.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – The Packers are pretty good in the secondary, and their zone defense gives up production to RBs in the passing game, giving up 7+ catches a game for 69 yards. They were talking Duke up a week ago in terms of getting him more involved, and David Johnson is hauling in fewer than 2 catches per game the last four weeks. I see Dookie with 2-3 grabs for 20+ yards a least.
Also:
JD McKissic (Was vs. Dal) OVER 15.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
Josh Jacobs (LVR, vs. TB) UNDER 68.5 rushing yards on BETMGM
Chase Claypool (Pit, at Ten) OVER 51.5 receiving yards on BETMGM
Tim Patrick (Den, vs KC) OVER 41.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
Danny Amendola (Det, at Atl) OVER 2.5 reception on BETMGM
