Things are winding down on the trade market, but I’m still around here this week and next before I wrap up another season playing the trading game.
PLAYERS TO TRADE FOR
Joe Burrow (Cin) and Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) — Chase is only the WR36 in PPG (10.7) over the last five weeks (four games), so his owner may be getting antsy. But the data is still okay, as Chase has 31 targets over the last four weeks, which is a good 24% target share. It’s also unrealistic to believe they will continue to dominate on the ground as they have with Joe Mixon. Burrow is averaging only 31 pass attempts the last four games and he’s attempted only 29 and 24 passes in their last two games. But their remaining schedule indicates a change is coming soon, since they are playing a bunch of good offenses starting now vs. LAC, vs. SF. at Den, vs. Bal, and vs. KC. The production, it’s about to rise.
Lamar Jackson (Bal) — Jackson is literally coming off the worst fantasy performance of his career, as the 9.4 FP he put up against the Browns in Week 12 was the lowest output he’s had in 47 career regular season starts. The Ravens certainly have issues, but they also have the 12-best playoff schedule Weeks 15-17 (vs. GB, at Cin, vs. LAR), per Scott Barrett’s adjusted SOS for QBs. All three of those games could be shootouts, so Lamar could heat up at the right time.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) — I’m definitely worried about the bad vibes and an offense that is possibly broken, but if things are broken, they can be fixed, and we did see some signs of life from Odell Beckham in Week 12. The main point is that Stafford’s value is down, but he could heat up in the fantasy playoffs, thanks to a nice schedule that actually begins this week vs. Jax. Then it’s at Ari, vs. Sea, at Min, and at Bal. That looks really good on paper.
Devin Singletary (Buf ) — This would be on the low-end, since I certainly don’t want to hang my hopes on a Bills RB down the stretch. However, if I was in a larger and/or very competitive league where a guy getting 12 FPG is truly impactful, Singletary could be a sneaky trade-for guy. The Bills may give Zack Moss another try, but for now he appears to be dead, and they’re certainly going to minimize the fragile Matt Brieda’s touches, so Singletary could actually be a surprise producer with 15 opportunities per game or more. With Moss a healthy scratch in Week 12, Singletary was their lead back with a 68% snapshare with Breida at 32%.
Chase Edmunds (Ari) — Remember him? Given they are coming off the bye and James Conner has been so great that I will admit I forgot Edmunds existed for a couple of days last week. Still, he does exist, and he could return from his IR (high ankle sprain) in Week 14 vs. the Rams. Even if he doesn’t, Conner may be about ready to turn into a pumpkin, so Edmunds is an interesting buy-low guy for the stretch run. He could make for a great flex vs. Det, Ind, and Dal in the fantasy playoffs. That is the 12-best playoff schedule Weeks 15-17 for RBs.
Amari Cooper (Dal) — One of my oldest fantasy football rules of thumb is to avoid anti-vaxxers. Okay, that’s a complete lie, but Cooper is an anti-vaxxer, and he’s paying the price by missing two games, and he apparently still feels like crap. He may continue to pay a price by missing Week 13, which could happen and is obviously a problem. If you want to avoid this situation, I’d understand, but I do see a buying opportunity here, and it’s due in large part to a great schedule, as I’ve mentioned here several times lately. After this week, he’s vs. Was, at NYG, at Was, and vs. Ari, which looks like fireworks.
Darren Waller (LV) — I actually traded for Waller in my top league two weeks ago, and I gave up Allen Robinson and my guy Dawson Knox to get him. And then I actually played against Knox in Week 12 (I still won). I love Knox and predicted double-digit TDs for him back in September, but I moved him for Waller for one simple reason: the Raiders passing game revolves around Waller, whereas Knox is just a piece and doesn’t get a ton of plays schemed up for him (he’s often a checkdown option for Josh Allen). My Waller trade looked good coming out of Week 11, since he had a big game with over 100 yards, but now I’ll probably have to live without him for 1-2 weeks. I actually have Logan Thomas still (another reason I was willing to trade Knox), but if I didn’t have a good TE option and needed to keep winning to make the playoffs, I’d be willing to unload Waller for someone who can help me in Week 13 specifically.
LISTED HERE LAST WEEK, BUT STILL GOOD BUY-LOW GUYS:
David Montgomery (Chi) — Montgomery laid an egg on Thanksgiving, but at least his value took a hit in such a high-profile spot. But his usage continues to be great, as the dummies in Chicago aren’t using Khalil Herbert at all. Since returning in Week 9, Montgomery leads all RBs in snaps (88%) by a wide margin, even more than Jonathan Taylor. The schedule is solid the rest of the way, which is the key here. Montgomery has shown that he needs some schedule help to produce, and he should get that vs. Ari, at GB, vs. Min, at Sea, and vs. NYG these next five weeks. The playoff schedule Weeks 15-17 (vs. Min, at Sea, and vs. NYG) ranks as the fourth-best adjusted SOS for RBs.
OTHER PLAYERS I’D BE WILLING TO TRADE FOR NOW BEFORE VALUE GOES UP:
Allen Robinson (Chi) — Hey, his value can only go up from this point. His owner is probably crippled with PTSD after dealing with A-Rob all year, and it’s completely possible that things can take a sharp positive turn in terms of A-Rob and whomever is playing QB. This is his final push for a new contract in 2022. The Bears also have the tenth-best adjusted SOS for WRs for the playoffs Weeks 15-17.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) — His value is up, but it will likely be a lot higher in the coming weeks if he can string together a bunch of strong showings. Obviously, he’s the #1 WR while Deebo is out. The 49ers also have the second-best adjusted SOS for WRs for the playoffs Weeks 15-17.
DK Metcalf (SEA) — I fully endorse at least a low-ball offer, assuming DK would represent an upgrade for your WR corps.
Noah Fant (Den) — He’s really frustrating, and Albert O is a threat, but his value is way down and his schedule is so good down the stretch. Hanging your hat on the angle that he could get hot and roll is legitimate, I’ll say that. They have the second-best adjusted SOS for TEs for the playoffs Weeks 15-17.
PLAYERS TO TRADE
Chubba Hubbard (Car) — It may seem counterintuitive to trade away a guy who's just been elevated to RB1 status on his team, but the problem is I don’t think Hubbard is very good, and they have major issues with him in pass protection, which is why they went and got Ameer Abdullah. The veteran actually handled 67% snaps last week once Christian McCaffrey went down (Hubbard was at 46%), and the Panthers used both backs on the field at the same time quite a bit. The passing down role is huge, and Abdullah ran 11 routes to Hubbard’s 4. Also, Hubbard is a good bet to get vultured by Cam Newton for as long as Cam is starting. If someone thinks they’re acquiring a strong asset in Hubbard now that CMC is done, I’d take advantage of that.
Mike Evans (TB) — Something is not right with Big Mike, who has three or fewer catches in four of his last six games. But now, with Rob Gronkowski back and balling and Antonio Brown set to return, Evans may be out of luck. Because when it comes to which players I think Brady likes throwing to best, it’s Gronk, AB, Chris Godwin, and Evans a distant fourth.
Dawson Knox (Buf) — I love Knox, but his production is a little fluky, often coming from second-reaction plays by Josh Allen, who is looking for Knox often. That’s great, but they also have the worst adjusted SOS for TEs for the playoffs Weeks 15-17.
LISTED HERE LAST WEEK, BUT STILL GOOD SELL GUYS:
Patrick Mahomes (KC) — His bye week has now passed, but I’m still open to moving him if the deal makes sense and I have a viable alternative (like a top-12 guy from our Season Projections). Using Scott Barrett’s adjusted SOS, the Chiefs also have the 12th-hardest schedule for the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17). And as crazy as it sounds, based on a large sample size in 2021, I don’t exactly trust Mahomes and I worry about an ugly bed-crapping in the fantasy playoffs. He’s essentially been bad for fantasy (for him) in four of his last five games.
Elijah Moore (NYJ) — It hurt to list him here last week, but sure enough he had his worst game in over a month with Zack Wilson in the lineup. Moore led the team in routes (30) and got a team-high 8 targets from Wilson, which is nice, but the aDOT on those looks was just 6.3 yards. Don’t give this baller away, but I’d still be okay moving on from him if I could help myself elsewhere.
