The Bottom Line: Week 2 DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Plays

Cash/Single-Entry lineups will be held hostage by the options in the Cowboys at Chargers game. That game is set up to see so many plays due to the offensive pacing of both teams that a few of those players even have a very high chance of being found on the GPP-winning lineups on the main slate. But we simply should not load our GPP lineups with those options. If we did, even if that lineup manages to finish with the highest score, it’ll share the top prize with 25,000 others. With that in mind, let’s dig through the rest of the games to find some sneaky options possibly being overlooked on Sunday’s main slate to provide our lineups with variance.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, LAR at IND ($6.4K DK | $7.5K FD | Spread: -4.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

Matthew Stafford came extremely close to a perfect passer rating last week. He’ll face a defense (Indianapolis) that came extremely close to permitting Russell Wilson to post a perfect passer rating last week. Xavier Rhodes has already been ruled out by the Colts for a second straight week. Really no reason to ever look at the coverage numbers on Stafford. He is in the same group as Patrick Mahomes as being consistently productive facing all coverage types. The best, only way to defend Stafford effectively is to pressure the pocket. Indy’s pass rush is populated by some dominant pass rushing talent (i.e., DeForest Buckner), but the Colts finished in the middle of the pack in QB pressures last week, and they’ll be matching up with the top-five O-line from Los Angeles.

The Bottom Line: Just as Wilson before him, Stafford is an imminent threat to put over 300 passing yards with three-or-more TDs on Indianapolis.

Teddy Bridgewater, DEN at JAX ($5.4K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: -6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

It’s interesting that those responsible for salary decisions did not bump Teddy Bridgewater’s price for this matchup. The Jaguars’ defense just allowed the Texans to score 37 points. And they suffered through a 23.6 FP performance from Tyrod Taylor. Unlike Jacksonville OC Darrell Bevell last week, we can be assured that Denver OC Pat Shurmur will want to enforce the run early. That is literally the only factor working against Bridgewater’s upside. The Broncos have the depth at WR to replace Jerry Jeudy in order to overwhelm an unimpressive Jags’ secondary.

The Bottom Line: The Jaguars played Cover 1 at the fourth-highest rate last week. Over the last three seasons, Bridgewater ranks third among all QBs with 0.54 FPs/dropback against Cover 1. During that time, he ranks with the second-highest passer rating (112.2) vs. Cover 1 and, on 21% of dropbacks, he’s thrown 44% of his total TDs No other QB has posted a higher TD rate against Cover 1!

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

Jameis Winston, NO at CAR ($6.1K DK | $7.7K FD | Spread: -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 1-3%)

Joe Burrow, CIN at CHI ($5.8K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: 3-5%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at PHI ($5.7K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: -3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. BUF ($5.5K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Running Backs

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. HOU ($7.8K DK | $8.4K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 4-5%)

It might be a little surprising to see Nick Chubb’s name at the top of this list. Everyone is aware of the type of player he is, and he’s facing a team everyone knows is a Week 1 pretender. You’ll notice his salary on DraftKings is bolded, italicized, and underlined. Chubb is expected to be chalk on FanDuel. But his salary on DraftKings will push much of the population away from him this weekend. Is that the appropriate course of action? We see a ton of lineups every week pay well over $8K for Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry. With CMC, Cook, and Kamara, you can mostly justify that decision since they are so involved as receivers. But Chubb is heading into a spot where he could go nuclear.

The Bottom Line: The Texans permitted the most FPs to RBs last season. Absolutely do not factor in Houston limiting Jacksonville’s run game last week. The Jags just didn’t feel like handing the ball off to RBs last week… for whatever insane, ludicrous reason. This is precisely the same Texans’ defense that was a laughingstock a season ago. Cleveland will win this game by at least three TDs. And both Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to pig their brains out on Texan inadequacy. But Chubb (DraftKings) will be the only option owned in less than 5% of rosters.

Javonte Williams, DEN at JAX ($4.4K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: -6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

It didn’t happen last week. When Javonte Williams was handed the ball in Week 1, the Giants’ run defense held it together. And it was a Melvin Gordon III handoff that resulted in the big, 70-yard TD scamper. With that run included, New York permitted the fourth-most rushing yards in Week 1. The team that surrendered the fifth-most? Jacksonville. But the Jaguars also permitted the fourth-highest third down conversion rate… to the Texans. The three teams allowing a higher rate (Washington, Cleveland, and Miami) did so facing far superior offenses (Chargers, Chiefs, and Patriots). When this game between the Broncos and Jaguars is over, count on seeing Jacksonville’s name ahead of all other teams in recognized rushing yards.

The Bottom Line: As soon as Denver manages to put together a multiple score lead, Gordon is going to take the back seat to Javonte. Shurmur and HC Vic Fangio will want to use this cupcake matchup to get their prized rookie acquainted with succeeding in the NFL. Don’t look now, but the Broncos will head into Week 3 at 2-0. Nobody is expecting them to succeed this season. But getting off to a positive start, learning how to win football games will be huge for Williams’ development. That all starts with helping his team put together a winning streak on Sunday. It’s the most winnable game he’ll play all season. I’m anticipating/betting on a sexy box score line for Javonte.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

David Montgomery, CHI vs. CIN ($6.1K DK | *$7.3K FD *| Spread: -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Kareem Hunt, CLE vs. HOU ($5.8K DK | *$5.7K FD *| Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Melvin Gordon III, DEN at JAX ($5.9K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: -6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 1-3%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

James Conner, ARI vs. MIN ($4.4K DK | *$5.5K FD *| Spread: -4.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Trey Sermon, SF at PHI ($4.6K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: -3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. SF ($4.0K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown, TB vs. ATL ($6.0K DK | $6.4K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

I can’t wrap my mind around Antonio Brown expected to be rostered in under 5% of lineups. Was I one of the only ones who saw how explosive he looked last Thursday night? I have every bit of respect for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. But Brown may be on a path to at least finish alongside one of the other two as the Buccaneers’ leading receiver. With Brown, it’s all about 1-2-3. He is a top-10 fantasy receiver over the last three seasons when facing Cover 1, Cover 2, and/or Cover 3 defenses. And it is for those reasons that Brown is a perfect schematic match with Tom Brady. Over the last three seasons, Brady has been a top-five QB when facing — you guessed it — Cover 1, Cover 2 and/or Cover 3 defenses.

The Bottom Line: Let’s see if you have a premonition on this one: the three coverages the Falcons featured last season? How about the only three coverages they used on at least 20% of snaps in Week 1? Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3.

Deebo Samuel, SF at PHI ($6.7K DK | $6.9K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Did you see what Deebo Samuel did to the Lions last week? Only 35.9 FPs that paced all NFL WRs with 1.32 FPs/route. How did he do it? He finished fifth with 12 targets — leading all receivers with a 52% target share! He finished 19th among all WRs with 100 air yards. But he finished third by averaging 12.1 yards after the catch/reception. That all equates to 7.56 yards gained/route run (YPRR), the league-leading number. Samuel is the premiere after-the-catch receiver in the entire NFL. We all know the Lions’ defense — more specifically, the secondary — is very, very bad. They are smack in the middle of a ‘tank for the top QB in the draft’ season. So nobody should be complaining about Detroit putting zero effort into improving its secondary. But Samuel receiving a 52% target share has nothing to do with the Lions.

The Bottom Line: Brandon Aiyuk can currently be found panting inside the doghouse of Kyle Shanahan. Jimmy Garoppolo is currently in the middle of showcasing his abilities to all QB-needy teams for his eventual trade/release. In what reality does it make any sense for Samuel to be included in less than 5% of main slate rosters? And don’t worry about Darius Slay. We found out last week that new DC Jonathan Gannon has no plans to use him as a shadow. A pattern will continue to emerge from defenses facing the 49ers this season. They will be so concerned with stopping the ‘9ers from running the ball that they will divert too many resources away to stop the pass. Need evidence? Jimmy G led all Week 1 QBs with a 48% play action rate.

Tyler Boyd, CIN at CHI ($4.7K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: +3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

On paper, Tyler Boyd faced the best matchup against Minnesota. Then Bashaud Breeland personally surrendered 27.7 FPs and a 145.8 targeted passer rating. And Mackensie Alexander proceeded to rank top-15 among Week 1 slot corners across the board in all of my important coverage metrics. Them’s the ropes. Attempting to project Week 1 results from results from the previous season adds another layer of volatility. The Bears made the decision to let Kyle Fuller leave via free agency. A new DC was in control (Sean Desai) who apparently felt the secondary could succeed without its former top CB. After one week, the decision is not aging well. Left corner Kindle Vildor played pretty well. Right corner Jaylon Johnson and slot corner Marqui Christian were outrageously bad.

The Bottom Line: Joe Burrow is healthy. Joe Mixon is taking nicely to the Bengals' shift to featuring outside zone blocking. Ja’Marr Chase appears to be as advertised. We still need to see how the O-line responds to being tested by pass rushes other than Minnesota’s. But we’ve seen enough from this offense to know that opposing defenses will have to deal with too many playmakers/reads to shut down this Bengals’ offense. Chase will run the highest percentage of his routes across from Johnson. But Chase will also be one of the top-five highest WRs on the slate. Boyd will be defended, statistically, by the most generous slot corner from Week 1. And he’ll be owned by less than 5% of your opponents.

DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. SF ($5.4K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

As you can see above, DeVonta Smith’s DraftKings salary is highlighted. That’s not a product of expecting that he’ll be owned in a high percentage of FanDuel lineups. It is a product of FanDuel’s 0.5 PPR scoring. For now, I consider Smith a volume play. He showed us last week that he is already at an NFL level in recognizing holes in opposing zone defenses. He did score a TD, but it was sprung by a mostly legal pick set by Zach Ertz. However, if he manages to show us he can score a TD on his own, it will be time to remove that “avoid” wrapping in FanDuel contests.

The Bottom Line: I find it quite odd that Jalen Hurts is set to be one of the three highest-owned QBs on the main slate, and his No. 1 target will be rostered in less than 5% of lineups. If you read Advanced Matchups for Week 2, you already know that Hurts is at his absolute best against Cover 3 defenses. And San Francisco just unveiled a brand spanking new featured Cover 3 at the NFLs second-highest rate. The 49ers will also field a set of corners that were not listed in their initial starting lineup. The Vegas money has not caught onto these facts. Count on seeing scoring well in excess of the implied line on Sunday. And count on seeing Hurts feed his new go-to with enough volume to make his anticipated 5% ownership look silly.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

D.J. Moore, CAR vs. NO ($5.9K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

Corey Davis, NYJ vs. NE ($5.3K DK | $6.4K FD | Spread: +5.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

*Jakobi Meyers, NE at NYJ ($5.1K DK *| $5.5K FD | Spread: -5.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)**

Christian Kirk, ARI vs. MIN ($5.0K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: -4.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Marquez Callaway, NO at CAR ($4.2K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

Anthony Schwartz, CLE vs. HOU ($3.3K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. CIN ($4.2K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Jalen Reagor, PHI vs. SF ($4.1K DK | $5.2K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

KJ Hamler, DEN at JAX ($3.8K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: -6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Juwan Johnson, NO at CAR ($3.6K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

K.J. Osborn, MIN at ARI ($3.3K DK | $4.6K FD | Spread: +4.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Cedrick Wilson Jr., DAL at LAC ($3.1K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: +3.0 | O/U: 55.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski, TB vs. ATL ($4.7K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Tampa Bay is favored by 12.5 points over the Falcons. If that advantage is gained in the first couple possessions, we may see the passing game of the Bucs put on ice very early. As long as Matt Ryan shows up prepared to prove he still deserves to be a starting QB, that is not a situation we will need to deal with until sometime in the second half. If you want absolute guarantees at TE this week, roster Darren Waller, George Kittle, or Tyler Higbee. But doing so will be attached with the highest anticipated ownership percentages. Rob Gronkowski, on the other hand, will be owned in less than 5%, and will face an Atlanta defense that has issues defending TEs for over a year.

The Bottom Line: The Falcons used the second-highest rate of Cover 2 in Week 1 under new DC Dean Pees. When Gronk has faced Cover 2 since coming out of retirement, he ranks seventh-best among all TEs with 0.48 FPs/route. He’s posted the fourth-highest targeted passer rating (136.6) and ninth-highest YPRR average (2.24). It’s a prime spot to see Gronkowski spike the football.

Blake Jarwin, DAL at LAC ($3.1K DK | $4.4K FD | Spread: +3.0 | O/U: 55.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

As was mentioned in the opening paragraph, the Dallas-Los Angeles game is going to score a ton of points due to pacing likely leading to the highest number of plays for any game this season. So we definitely want to look into every available option set to play enough snaps to matter. One of those is Blake Jarwin. Another is Dalton Schultz. Whether it’s a number that will stick or not is unclear, but the Cowboys used a large increase in multi-TE sets in Week 1. With Michael Gallup going on IR, it might actually stick until he’s eligible.

The Bottom Line: Jarwin and Schultz are not optimal TE options who we can expect to approach double-digit targets. But they are dirt cheap TE options, expected to see less than 1% ownership that provides us with sneaky avenues to add exposure to the money game.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. SF ($4.6K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: +3.5 | O/U: 50.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

David Njoku, CLE at vs. HOU ($3.6K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Dalton Schultz, DAL at LAC ($3.3K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: +3.0 | O/U: 55.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

James O’Shaughnessy, JAX vs. DEN ($2.7K DK | $4.4K FD | Spread: +6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos, DEN at JAX ($2.9K DK | $4.6K FD | Spread: -6.0 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 1-3%)

Arizona Cardinals, ARI vs. MIN ($2.9K DK | $4.4K FD | Spread: -4.5 | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

New England Patriots, NE at NYJ ($3.7K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: -5.5 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 2-4%)

Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

*Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB vs. ATL ($4.1K DK *| $4.5K FD | Spread: -12.5 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)**