Last week was a tilting one with the Rams not covering -3.5, Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions missing when he had 4 catches in the first quarter, and the Eagles-49ers game flopping. I felt really good about my process – just ran into some bad variance.
We’re on to Week 3, though.
GAME PICKS
Chargers at Chiefs
Bet – Chargers +7 (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – I’m shocked this line has stuck all week, but I’ll happily take the points with the Chargers against this Chiefs team that is 2-11 ATS across their last 13 (H/T Brolley). The Chiefs defense has hemorrhaged yards (7.6 yards per play allowed – most) and points (3.30 points per drive allowed – most).
Falcons at Giants
Bet – Over 47 points (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – Giants-Falcons game is No. 1 tilt in both combined pace and plays and has even more scoring upside between these two bottom-10 defenses. The Giants have allowed a score on a whopping 58% of their drives (most) while the Falcons secondary and pass rush is – spoiler alert! – terrible again. New York has been an under team as of late like Brolley noted in his trends section, but this is about as perfect of a spot to break that streak. The Falcons have lost seven-straight dating back to last year and by a massive 11.6-point margin on average, so we’ll need them to show up for this game to really go off, but all of the key metrics point to plenty of opportunities for points.
Ravens at Lions
Bet – Over 50 points (-110, FOXBet)
Why? – I bet this right after the news came out that the Ravens put Justin Houston, Brandon Williams, Justin Madubuike and Jaylon Ferguson on the COVID list. With half of their front-seven out (plus Derek Wolfe) and Jimmy Smith questionable, Baltimore’s defense is in very rough shape.
PLAYER PROPS
Josh Allen
Bet – Over 254.5 passing yards + over 2 Pass TDs (+125, BetMGM)
Why? – I got a nice plus money parlay for a potential blow-up spot for Allen. It’s been a slow start for the Bills' standards, but Washington has allowed opponents to score on 61.1% of their possessions (the highest rate in the league).
Stefon Diggs
Bet – Over 64.5 receiving yards (-125, BetMGM)
Why? – Diggs hasn’t hit a ceiling game yet, but he’s remained a clear alpha wide receiver with massive 29% and 28% target shares in Weeks 1-2. Washington has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts so far. This was an early week bet and his receiving prop is up to 72+ in most spots.
Nick Chubb
Bet – Over 72.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Chubb averages 96.5 rushing yards per game when the Browns are favored by a field goal or more. We have Chubb projected at 90 yards.
Darnell Mooney
Bet – Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – The Bears are touchdown dogs and will have to chase this game. Mooney has seen 7 and 8 targets in Weeks 1-2 and, with his 4.4 speed, Mooney could hit the over on his prop with just one play. We have Mooney projected for 68.5 yards.
Mark Andrews
Bet – Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – It’s been a slow start for Andrews this season which is surprising given all of the Ravens injuries at wide receiver. Andrews has scored just 16.7 total FP in Weeks 1-2 on five targets in both outings, but is poised for a blowup game here against a Lions secondary that is giving up a league-high 3.3 fantasy points and 16.3 yards per target to the position. While his production has been disappointing, Andrews’ usage has not. He’s run a route on 92.5% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks – which is the highest rate among TEs and a huge uptick from previous years. We have Andrews projected for 62 yards.
Jameis Winston
Bet – Under 230.5 passing yards (-115, FOXBet)
Why? – Winston has attempted 20 and 22 passes in his first two starts as HC Sean Payton tries to manage his quarterbacks strengths / weaknesses. 230.5 yards is a high bar for Winston to cross with 1) the Saints lack of weapons 2) the way their offense is constructed and 3) this matchup. New England gave up 202 yards (on 27 attempts) to Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1 and 210 to Zach Wilson (on 33 attempts) last week. We have Winston projected for 215 yards.
D’Andre Swift
Bet – Over 39.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – I bet this right after the news came out that the Ravens put Justin Houston, Brandon Williams, Justin Madubuike and Jaylon Ferguson on the COVID list. With half of their front-seven out (plus Derek Wolfe) and Jimmy Smith questionable, Baltimore’s defense is in very rough shape.
ROI THIS SEASON
Totals -5%
Props -34%
Spreads -52%
(Week 2 sucked.)
