Week 17 was another frustrating week for my prop picks with several close misses and more bad luck. I did lose two Tom Brady props, thinking he wouldn’t play all four quarters with his foot on the gas, so that was not bad luck. But while I have barely won many of my plays this year, I do think I’ve lost twice as many picks that were very close than I’ve won (at least). Since I can’t rely on luck, apparently, I just need to do a better job with my picks, and hopefully my ability to home in on the matchups more in the playoffs will help.
All that said, I was +22 on my picks for the season, so it’s not like they were terrible. And if you notice, the top 5-10 picks have been winning at about 60-70% most weeks, and that’s not a coincidence, since I list them in order of preference/priority.
Last week’s record: 12-9
Season record: 150-128
Before I get into this week’s prop picks, I’m adding spread and total picks for the playoffs. Here are my picks for the Wild Card Round:
Bills -6.5
Ind-Buf OVER 50.5
Seahawks -3
LAR-Sea UNDER 42.5
Tampa Bay - 9
TB-Was OVER 45
Tennessee +3
Bal-Ten UNDER 54.5
Saints -10
Chi-NO OVER 47.5
Steelers -6
Pit-Cle UNDER 47.5
Wild Card Round Prop Picks
- Lamar Jackson (Bal, at Ten) OVER 199.5 passing yard on DK - This one is -118, which isn’t great, but it’s still very doable for me, given Lamar’s improvement, the recent poor play of the Titans against the pass, and the expected total of 54.
- Marquise Brown (Bal, at Ten) OVER 46.5 receiving yards on DK - Even though the Titans should have Adoree Jackson on the field, they have been all kinds of vulnerable on the back end, thanks in part to their non-existent pass rush. In their last four games, for example, they are giving up 18/214/2 to WRs, which is a lot. Brown did get hot at the right time, at least, which makes sense because he and Lamar Jackson didn't have a typical off-season, and he’s hit 12+ FP in six straight with 6 TDs in those six games. Brown can absolutely eat up the zone coverage the Titans typically run, so I think he could have a 5-6 catch game with 100+ yard potential.
- Corey Davis (Ten, vs. Bal) OVER 59.5 receiving yards on DK - You may find better odds than the -124 on DK, but regardless, I like this pick. We’ve learned over the years that Davis is better against man coverage and can struggle vs. zone, which may help explain how he made some big plays against this defense back in Week 11 with 5/113 receiving on 7 targets (Ravens play more man than most). Davis has fallen into the small slump lately, with fewer than 9 FP in 3 of his last 4, but this game does have the highest expected total on the board at 54, and AJ Brown’s health is a bigger question this week than it’s been, since he missed practice on Thursday and Friday. I’m expecting well over 30 attempts for Tannehill, which should give Davis a good chance for 5+ catches, and he’s averaging 15 YPR the last four weeks, so he needs only 4 grabs at that pace to hit this.
- TY Hilton (Ind, at Buf) OVER 53.5 receiving yards on BETMGM - This is -111 on BETMGM and it’s -112 on DK, so playing this on DK is fine. I think the Colts will be throwing it 35+ times, and it could be 45+ if the Bills do as well as I think they will, so TY has to get this playing catch up. He will not be shadowed by Tre’Davious White, most likely.
- JD McKissic (Was, vs. TB) OVER 4.5 receptions on BETMGM - The 4.5 total is the same on DK, but the odds are much worse on DK. You obviously want to roll with McKissic when TFT is playing from behind, and they will be playing from behind most of this game, as the Bucs are 8-point road favorites. Starting in Week 4, McKissic in FT losses has hauled in 7, 6, 6, 9, 7, 9, and 8 balls. We do have a potential issue with QB Alex Smith, who may have to give way to Taylor Heinicke. For what it’s worth, in his lone NFL start, Week 17 of 2018, he did complete 12-of-13 passes intended for Christian McCaffrey, so I’m fairly confident he can get the ball to McKissic in the passing game.
- Logan Thomas (Was, vs. TB) OVER 38.5 receiving yards on DK - Thomas over the last four weeks is averaging a whopping 10.3 targets/game and 7.3 catches/game. The Bucs have allowed 12+ FP to TEs in 4 of their last 5, and they’ve given up 6 catches a game to TEs the last four weeks with 3 TDs surrendered. It’s a good matchup by the numbers, and while it would suck if Alex Smith didn’t play, I’m guessing he will, and I’m seeing some major GTP opportunities for Thomas yet again.
- Ronald Jones (TB, at Was) OVER 56.5 rushing yards on DK - The Bucs will likely come out throwing, especially on early downs, which I like for Jones. Mix it up and get the FT focussing on stopping the pass, which should help Jones pop off a run or two. Or, it’ll go into the fourth quarter with this bet close, and Jones can get it late while they seal a victory. Jones out-snapped (36 to 30), out-touched (12 to 7), and out-gained (78 to 27) Leonard Fournette last week, and LeSean McCoy won’t play.
- JK Dobbins (Bal, at Ten) OVER 61.5 rushing yards on DK - Dobbins has been as good as expected with a large role, and he’s seen between 11-15 carries in each of their last six games. He’s averaging 6.4 YPC in that span and 6.9 the last four weeks. Dobbins got his hot streak going against the Titans in Week 11 with 15/70/1 rushing, and the Titans are giving up a generous 5.9 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. I have Dobbins projected for 13 carries at that 5.9 YPC number, which gets to 77 yards. That’s a big enough discrepancy for me.
- James Conner (Pit, at Cle) OVER 46.5 rushing yards on DK - Conner has played more than 60% of the snaps in his last two games, and he’s at least been over 4.1 YPC these two weeks, as he and the OL have shown some signs of life. Conner is still not easy to trust, but the Browns are a mess and the Steelers should handle them with relative ease. It would be smart for them to try to commit to their running game early and/or roll with it late to grind out a win. Either way, Conner looks like a great bet to actually run for more than 50 yards and come through
- Austin Hooper (Cle, vs. Pit) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK - The odds are bad on DK at -175. It’s -149 on William Hill, which is better if you can play it. But Hooper has been a go-to guy for weeks, averaging 7 targets a game the last four weeks. Hooper has hauled in 4+ balls in each of his last four, and he put up 4/37/1 receiving on five targets against the undermanned Steelers last week and also had 5/52 receiving against them in Week 6.
Also:
- TY Hilton (Ind, at Buf) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
- Marquise Brown (Bal, at Ten) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
- Logan Thomas (Was, vs. TB) OVER 3.5 receiving yards on BETMGM
- Zach Moss (Buf, vs. Ind) OVER 36.5 rushing yards on DK
- Zach Pascal (Ind, at Buf) OVER 39.5 receiving yards on DK
- Chris Godwin (TB, at Was) OVER 61.5 receiving yards on DK
- Jared Cook (NO, vs. Chi) OVER 29.5 receiving yards on DK
- Jared Cook (NO, vs. Chi) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK
- Jonathan Taylor (Ind, at Buf) scores a TD, -105 on FanDuel
Added 1/9 12:30 PM with CB Denzel Ward announced as out.
- Diontae Johnson (Pit, at Cle) OVER 65.5 receiving yards on DK
