Last week’s record: 6-9
Season record: 32-36
At this point, I know these props are tough this year. I’m going to stay close to .500 and then get on a roll, which is the opposite of my plan to get off to a .700 start like usual early in the season. But it’s been tough. That said, I’m expecting to be over .500 next week and creating momentum for the coming weeks.
Mark Andrews (Bal vs. Phi) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK – It’s -$150, but I’ll take those odds with Hollywood Brown likely having his problems with Darius Slay and the Eagles LBs being so vulnerable in coverage. The whole Eagles secondary is vulnerable other than Slay, so I’d be stunned if Andrews didn’t catch at least 5 balls.
Derrick Henry (Ten vs. Hou) OVER 115.5 total yards on FanDuel - I watch the Titans every week and their OL hasn’t been great, but that seems to be the case every year with Henry and then he heats up in November-December. We’re not quite to November, but I also watch the Texans every week and their run defense is awful. Really bad. Henry should hit this total without needing any yardage in the passing game.
Aaron Jones (GB at TB) OVER 28.5 receiving yards on FanDuel – You just don’t run on the Bucs, and the Packers know this. Jamaal Williams has had a lot of run lately in the passing game, so it’s time for Jones to remind people he’s in the Alvin Kamara neighborhood when it comes to the passing game. This is the perfect week to do it.
Carson Wentz (Phi at Bal) OVER 13.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – I really don’t know how the Eagles are going to move the ball behind their depleted OL and with such a tough defense on the other side. I don’t think Ertz can count on his boy Zach Ertz, who has been awful the last two weeks. Wentz is scratching and clawing his way to fantasy respectability, though, and he’s doing it in part with his legs. It’s counter-intuitive, but given his OL issues, he’s probably a better bet to use his legs to help him this week, so this one looks to be in the bag.
Jared Goff (LAR at SF) UNDER 24.5 completions on BETMGM – As much as I love what Goff and the Rams are doing, my biggest concern as a Goff owner this year is actually a lack of volume. Over the last four weeks, he’s attempting only 30 passes a game. He’s been incredibly efficient, but given the 49ers’ issues on offense and the smothering Ram defense making it tough on them, I just don’t see Goff needing to have to throw it 35+ times, so I think he’ll come in at around 20 completions only, which is what I projected him for before even thinking of this play.
Christian Kirk (Ari at Dal) OVER 44.5 receiving yards on DK – I had Kirk’s over total here last week and said he could get it early, and he did. He really should be and is their #2 option in the passing game, and last week they got their downfield passing game going, so Kirk once again may need only 1-2 catches to hit his low number.
Laviska Shenault (JAX vs. Det) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK – This one seems too easy with DJ Chark banged up and Shenault balling, Shenault has looked very good the last two weeks, and he’s particularly effective against man-to-man so far in his career, which is what the Lions run more than anyone.
Julian Edelman (NE vs. Den) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK – Maybe he’s more hurt than they are letting on, but I love him today with a great matchup in the slot. It just feels like a big Edelman day given their time off and this matchup.
Eric Ebron (Pit vs. Cle) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK – As underwhelmed as I was last week, he did still catch 5 of 6 targets, and no Diontae Johnson plus the blowup game for Chase Claypool has me feeling very good about this one. The Browns secondary is a mess on film and they’ve been bad against TEs all year.
Trey Burton (Ind vs. Cin) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK – Mo Alie-Cox won’t play, and the Bengals are bad against the TE, so this one looks pretty easy to me. Maybe that’s the kiss of death, but Burton is emerging.
Also:
Damiere Byrd (NE vs. Den) OVER 38.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
Derrick Henry (Ten vs. Hou) OVER 103.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
Todd Gurley (Atl at Min) OVER 56.5 rushing yards on BETMGM
Mark Andrews (Bal vs. Phi) OVER 47.5 receiving yards on DK
David Montgomery (Chi at Car) OVER 85.5 total yards on DK
