Week 16 Game Hub: NYG-PHI

New York Giants (4-10, 6-8 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7, 7-6-1), 1 p.m.

Brolley’s Giants Stats and Trends

• The Giants shocked the Eagles 13-7 in Week 12 as 10-point home underdogs in a game totaled at 45 points.

• New York locked up its fifth straight season with double-digit losses and its seventh such campaign in the last eight years.

• The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and in their last five road games.

• The Giants’ offense is in a complete freefall since Daniel Jones (neck) left the lineup in Week 12, and it’s gotten so bad that they’re handing the keys to the offense to Jake Fromm. He can’t be much worse than Mike Glennon, who averaged 159.0 passing yards per game and 4.6 YPA with two TDs and five INTs in three starts. Fromm played one series against the Cowboys, and he nearly matched Glennon in passing yards (99 to 82). Garrett Gilbert posted 194 scoreless yards in this matchup last week.

• Kadarius Toney hasn’t even played since Week 11 because of an oblique injury and COVID, but the Giants will need him this week after they lost Sterling Shepard (Achilles) to yet another injury. Toney should be the primary slot receiver moving forward, and he has the chance to be active playing with the noodle-armed Fromm. Toney missed this game back in Week 12, and Kenny Golladay led this group with 3/50 receiving on seven targets. Golladay still hasn’t scored a touchdown and he hasn’t reached double-digit FP since Week 4.

• Evan Engram could also benefit from Shepard’s absence the rest of the season. Engram is coming off yet another unimpressive performance last week with 4/33 receiving, but he gets a matchup with an Eagles’ defense that’s giving up the most FPG (18.2) to TEs this season. Engram flopped in this prime matchup back in late November, posting just 3/50 receiving on six targets.

• Saquon Barkley has posted 17+ touches in four straight games, but he has just one TD and he’s averaging just 4.1 yards per touch in that span in one of the league’s worst offensive environments. He’s also conceded work to Devontae Booker the last two weeks with snap shares sitting below 60% as the Giants try to preserve him for the future.Barkley totaled 13/40 rushing and 4/13 receiving on five targets against the Eagles in Week 12.

Brolley’s Eagles Stats and Trends

• The Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.

• Philadelphia is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six NFC East contests.

• The Eagles are 6-2 toward overs in their last eight games.

• Jalen Hurts has been in a bit of a funk with just one game with 20+ since Week 7, but he erupted for 29.6 FP against an undermanned Washington squad in Week 15. After two early turnovers put the Eagles in a hole, he averaged a season-high 11.4 YPA and he added two TD plunges from a yard out to pull out a 10-point victory. Hurts had his worst game of the season against the Giant in Week 12, completing just 14/31 passes (45.2%) for 129 scoreless yards (4.2) and three INTs but he at least added 8/77 rushing.

• Dallas Goedert went nuts with 6/105/2 receiving in Gardner Minshew’s start in Week 13, and he kept it rolling with Hurts back in the lineup in Week 15, posting 7/135 receiving on nine targets. He’s now finished with 11+ FP in five of his seven full contests since Zach Ertz headed to the desert. Goedert didn’t gain a yard on his one catch and three targets against the Giants in late November.

• DeVonta Smith has been a non-factor in this offense in his last three games, with a combined 7/77 receiving on 13 targets in Weeks 12-15. He’s now failed to reach 7+ targets in seven straight games after that mark five times in his first seven contests. Smith managed just 2/22 receiving on four targets in this matchup in Week 12

• Miles Sanders is the leading candidate for the most snake-bitten RB in the league this year. He’s accounted for 140+ yards in two consecutive games, and he’s averaging 5.5 YPC, which puts him behind only Tony Pollard (5.7) and Jonathan Taylor (5.6) at the position. Unfortunately, Sanders has yet to crack the end zone despite having 155 touches to his name this season. The Eagles had all four backs active in Week 15 and Sanders led the group with 20/146 scrimmage and a 49% snap share, but Jordan Howard was close behind him with 15/69 rushing on a 48% snap share. Boston Scott paced this backfield with 15/64/1 rushing with Sanders adding 9/64 rushing in this matchup in late November.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Giants

Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.9 (20th)

Plays per game: 58.9 (28th)

Pass: 63.7% (9th) | Run: 36.3% (24th)

Eagles

Pace: 29.1 (23rd)

Plays per game: 66.1 (5th)

Pass: 39.7% (32nd) | Run: 60.3% (1st)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

The Eagles are a perfect example of how it pays to be contrarian if you do it well. This offense has so many parallels to the 2018-19 Ravens, it’s crazy. Over the last eight weeks, Philadelphia is…

• Second in run rate when the game is close

• First in run rate when trailing

• First in run rate when leading

• First in drives ending in a score

• Second in time of possession per drive

• First in yards gained per drive

That’ll work!

Meanwhile, the Giants are trending in the complete opposite direction. The Mike Glennon-led Giants have scored one non-garbage time TD on their 34 possessions over the last three weeks. Is that bad? It seems bad. They should just play Jake Fromm – it can’t possibly get worse.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

After George Kittle was essentially eliminated from the game plan against Tennessee on Thursday night – 9% target share, I am now comfortable considering Dallas Goedert the hottest TE in the league. Removing Week 10 from the table when Goedert was removed from the game early due to a concussion, he has been on the field for at least 83% of the passing plays dating back to Zach Ertz being traded, and has drawn 26% of the total target share. However, the singular concern is that Goedert suffered through his worst game of the season in Week 12 against these Giants (one FP).

Don’t expect an explanation involving a masterful defensive performance from a NYG defender on Goedert. The lousy performance was on the shoulders of Jalen Hurts. However, it should also be noted that it was the game when Hurts injured his ankle enough to be held out in Week 13. Dalton Schultz had zero issue assembling an 8/67/1 line last week against the G-Men. And TEs have posted at least 15 FPs in four of the last six weeks against New York.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

Big ups to Eagles’ coach Nick Sirianni, who has his team rolling on the ground.

Sirianni is on the COVID-19 list and may not coach this weekend, but all he’s really doing is leaning into his team’s strengths, which are the offensive line, a deep stable of RBs, and QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts has 10 rushing TD, and has three games left to tie or beat the single-season record for a QB (14, by Cam Newton). Hurts played a great game against the Team last week and is obviously on the QB1 radar.

Here’s Graham from Start/Sit on RB Miles Sanders’ revival:

“While Sanders isn’t allowed to score TDs apparently, at least he looks awesome. Miles Sanders is absolutely shredding defenses in this new-found, run-heavy Eagles attack and it all culminated in him hitting a career-high in rushing yards (131) against Washington on Tuesday. My concern last week is that the Eagles would go with a full-blown committee now that all of their guys were back healthy. That wasn’t the case. Sanders operated as the Eagles clear-cut lead back before Jordan Howard came in as the closer. In fact, he led the backfield in carries (18) in the first three quarters while Howard had just six carries before the fourth quarter. With Sanders as the Eagles clear lead back, there is a lot of meat on the bone for him to finally have a ceiling against this Giants run defense that just gave up a combined 21.9 FP to the Cowboys gimpy RBs. I’m back in on Sanders and trusting him as a strong RB2 this week.”

However, Sanders has missed multiple practices this week with a quad injury — if he doesn’t play, it’s an utter smash spot for Jordan Howard against this Giant defense.

Meanwhile, as good a rookie season as WR DeVonta Smith has had, the Eagles’ low-volume passing game has supported only one weekly pass-catcher for fantasy — and that’s TE Dallas Goedert. Here’s Scott from Start/Sit:

“Goedert is averaging 2.35 YPRR, an all-time great mark for a TE. Only 7 other TEs this past decade have finished a season with a YPRR of 2.35 or better. And since the Zach Ertz trade (Week 7), Goedert is averaging 2.75 YPRR, which would rank 6th-best this past decade, and is a mark only bested by George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, and Mark Andrews.

Since Week 7, Goedert is averaging 6.4 targets (24% target share), 71.5 yards, and 13.4 fantasy points per four quarters on an 87% route share. If over the full season, those numbers would rank 9th-, 1st-, 4th-, 5th-, and 1st-best. And his best games have come most recently. He’s hit at least 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, averaging 24.5 FPG over this span, with a low of only 20.5.

In a perfectly neutral on-paper matchup, coming off of a season-high 9 targets, the red-hot Goedert needs to be started as a top-5 option this week.”

The Giants are apparently claiming to try to create some “competitive advantage” by not announcing a starting QB this week between Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm. But beat writers are picking up on some hints…

Yeah, that’s an absolutely perfect tweet.

If Fromm does start, he won’t have much of a receiving group to work with. WR Kenny Golladay has a brutal matchup with former teammate Darius Slay, while the perpetually injured Kadarius Toney remains so, even though he’s off the COVID list.

It’s a good matchup for TE Evan Engram if you dare trust him, but my guess is the Eagles will try to force Fromm to beat them, which will continue to make the offensive environment miserable for RBs Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker, who are now in a split.