Week 13 Game Hub: SF-SEA

San Francisco 49ers (6-5, 5-6 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (3-8, 5-6), 4:25 p.m.

Brolley’s 49ers Stats and Trends

• San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

• The 49ers are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games as a favorite.

• The 49ers have reeled off three outright and ATS wins with an average cover margin of +14.0 points in that span, and the offense is hitting their stride with 30+ points in each of those contests.

• Eli Mitchell went from being questionable to play last week because of his surgically repaired finger to seeing a career-high 70% snap share with passing back JaMycal Hasty missing last week. He posted 27 carries for a second straight game, which he turned into 133/1 rushing, and he added 5/35 receiving on a season-high six targets. Hasty is back on the practice field this week and he’d lose his passing-game involvement if he returns to the lineup, but he’s now seen 17+ carries in six of his eight games this season. Mitchell missed this matchup back in early October, but the Seahawks are now allowing the second-most FPG (31.8) to RBs this season.

• Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted just 67 passes over the last three weeks with five scores in that span, but he’s averaged 8.0 YPA or better in five straight games. He had his three-game run with two TD passes snapped last week, and he’ll be without Deebo Samuel (groin) this week. Jimmy G managed 165/1 passing against the Seahawks in Week 4 before a calf injury knocked him out for the entire second half.

• Brandon Aiyuk has reeled off double-digit FP in four of his last five games and 85+ receiving yards in three of his last four contests. He owns a team-best 27% target share since Week 8 and his role should remain large with Deebo out this week. Aiyuk didn’t have much of a role when these teams played earlier this season, but Deebo went for 8/156/2 receiving as the top WR.

• George Kittle has been hot since he returned to the lineup, posting 15/185/3 receiving in Weeks 9-11, but he came crashing back to earth with just a 13-yard catch on two targets against the Vikings last week. He could be the top option in this passing attack this week with Deebo out, and Kittle posted 4/40 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup earlier this season. The Seahawks are giving up the 10th-most FPG (14.0) to TEs this season.

Brolley’s Seahawks Stats and Trends

• The Seahawks have won three straight games outright in this series after winning 28-21 as 2.5-point road underdogs in early October in a game totaled at 52 points.

• The Seahawks have played under the total in nine straight games.

• Seattle has lost outright and ATS in all three games since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, and the offense is averaging just 9.3 points per game with Wilson back in the saddle. He’s completing just 55.7% of his passes and averaging 6.3 YPA with a 2.1% TD rate in that span, while he owns marks of 65.0%, 7.8 YPA, and 6.1% TD rate over his 10-year career. Russ accounted for just 149 passing yards in this matchup in early October, but he threw for two TDs while adding a rushing TD for 22.6 FP.

• D.K. Metcalf has been miserable since Russ returned to the kitchen, posting a combined 8/70 receiving on 20 targets for 15.0 FP in three contests. He’s also failed to find the end zone in that time after scoring eight touchdowns in his first eight games. Metcalf went for 4/65/1 receiving on eight targets in this matchup in Week 4.

• Tyler Lockett has been much better than Metcalf since Russ returned to the lineup, posting a combined 9/234 receiving on 18 targets for 32.4 FP. He’s now lapping the league with 510 receiving yards on targets of 20+ yards, which is 135 yards better than the next closest player, Ja’Marr Chase. Lockett managed just 4/24 receiving on five targets in this matchup earlier this season.

• Gerald Everett has reached 37+ receiving yards in all three games since Russ returned to the lineup with 14+ FP in two of those contests. He’s also seen a team-best 22% target share in the last three weeks. Everett missed this contest earlier this season. The 49ers are giving up a league-low 29.0 receiving yards per game to TEs, but they will likely be without top LB Fred Warner (hamstring).

• The Seahawks backfield has been a mess since Chris Carson (neck, IR) left the lineup in Week 4. Alex Collins has fallen below 45 rushing yards in five straight games and he’s averaging 3.2 YPC. DeeJay Dallas saw a backfield-best 60% of the snaps last week, but he managed just 3/4 rushing and 5/27 receiving against Washington. Both Rashaad Penny (hamstring) and Travis Homer (calf) returned to practice early in the week to potentially get more cooks in the kitchen this week. The 49ers are giving up 3.8 YPC and the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (78.9) to RBs.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

49ers

Pace (seconds in between plays): 30.7 (30th)

Plays per game: 59.9 (27th)

Pass: 51.1% (30th) | Run: 48.9% (3rd)

Seahawks

Pace: 26.2 (4th)

Plays per game: 54.9 (32nd)

Pass: 63.1% (12th) | Run: 36.9% (21st)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

We’re watching the end of an era play out between Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll as one of those two are near locks to be out of Seattle in 2022. Sure, Wilson is playing at less than 100%, but Carroll and his overly conservative ways are interfering with their offensive plan to a point where this entire team is just dysfunctional. Since Wilson returned three weeks ago, Seattle is averaging a pitiful 52 plays per game. That’s easily a league-low, and their offense's inability to generate long, scoring possessions has melted into keeping their defense on the field. The Seahawks are facing a league-high 73.4 plays per game defensively, which is by far a league-high. I have no clue how the markets view this game as tight as just a field goal in the 49ers favor, especially considering San Francisco is rolling offensively with 30+ points scored in four of their last five games.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

After a hot start, Josh Norman’s metrics have followed the direction of his career trajectory. He’s currently registering 1.36 YPCS (18th-most), 0.32 FP/CS (13th-most), 0.21 AY/CS (19th-most), and a 126.3 TPR (fourth-highest) to his coverage assignments. DK Metcalf will easily face the softest coverage opposition. It’s the perfect get-right opportunity for Metcalf to get his season back on track.

Jimmy Garoppolo will be relying on Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, in particular, stepping up to absorb Deebo Samuel’s touches. But it’s George Kittle that will benefit the most from Deebo’s absence. Seattle is delivering 14.0 FPG to opposing TEs (10th-most).

Dolan’s Vantage Points

The biggest storyline from this game, at least from a fantasy standpoint, is the absence of Deebo Samuel, who has a groin injury. If it’s up to Deebo, his absence will be brief.

But he will be out this week, which — given his usage in recent weeks — means there could be more opportunity in the backfield for RB Elijah Mitchell, who looks like a legitimate league-winner. Of course, “more opportunity” is likely hard to find given how much he touched the ball in their last game. It’s just that the 49ers seem to be in the mode of not letting Jimmy Garoppolo throw the ball much at all.

Here’s Scott Barrett from Start/Sit:

“Each week in my DFS content I’ve used Mitchell as the poster boy to express the limitations of median projections, and why some players are too risky for cash but are perfect for GPPs.

All season I’ve been viewing Mitchell as essentially this: 50% chance he gets 90 rushing yards and nothing else (9.0 fantasy points), 50% chance he scores twice (or once with the 100-yard bonus) and drops ~22.0 DK fantasy points. He averages 16.3 DK FPG this season. But that’s better expressed this way — he averages 23.2 DK FPG in his top-50% of games and 9.4 DK FPG in his bottom-50% of games.

Essentially, he’s a terrific high-risk/high-reward play for tournaments, but is too risky for cash. But, for season-long leagues, if you own Mitchell, you have to be feeling pretty good. Mitchell went undrafted in 99.999% of leagues, but I’m viewing him as a solid low-end RB1 for the remainder of the season.

Mitchell earned a season-high 70% snap share in Week 12. He finished the week 3rd among RBs in both XFP (24.8) and fantasy points scored (28.0). He earned a bell cow-like, 28 of 30 carries and 6 of 8 targets out of the backfield (minus Deebo Samuel, who is out this week).

Mitchell was a bell cow in Week 12, and even in a worst-case scenario is an extremely high-end workhorse. He’s seen at least 27 carries in back-to-back games, and at least 18 carries in 4 of his last 5. And, encouragingly, it seems he’s finally being used in the passing game. He’s seen 5 or more targets in 2 of his last 3 games, though he had just 4 total targets through his first 5 games. (Granted, JaMycal Hasty’s absence last week might have been a factor there.)

In victories, Mitchell is averaging 21.6 carries and 101.4 rushing YPG. And, good news! The 49ers are favored this week, by 3.5-points, against a Seattle defense that ranks 2nd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+8.4). He’s an easy RB1 this week.”

And now here’s Scott on the big beneficiary of Deebo’s injury, Brandon Aiyuk:

“Since being let out of the doghouse in Week 8, Aiyuk has seen at least 7 targets in 4 of his last 5 games. And he’s hit at least 85 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 15.1 FPG over this span (16th-most). And now, Deebo Samuel, who leaves behind a 23% XFP share (6th-most) is expected to sit out the next 1-2 weeks with a strained groin. And Aiyuk averages a whopping 11.3 targets and 21.6 FPG (low of 19.7) in his last 4 healthy games with Samuel out. (Though, granted, George Kittle only played in one of these games.)

The on-paper matchup is absolutely brutal — the Seahawks rank top-3 in both FPG allowed to outside WRs (15.5) and schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing WR1s (-6.0) — but we still like Aiyuk this week as a low-end WR2.

It’s worth pointing out that the matchup is far more in George Kittle’s favor, as Seattle ranks 4th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to TEs (+3.5). But, for whatever reason (and I’m not sure this means anything), he’s actually been less productive without Samuel, averaging only 9.8 FPG over his last 5 games Samuel has missed.”

Obviously, we’d like to see more than one catch for George Kittle, but you have to start him regardless. And one guy who is likely to pick up snaps is WR Jauan Jennings, whom Shanahan loves for his blocking and attention to detail.

{TWEET|

Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers “believed in Jauan” and that Jennings had taken advantage of his opportunity. Shanahan also noted that Azeez Al-Shaair has been “one of our better players.”

Both players must continue to step up with Deebo and Warner out. https://t.co/HP44KFBvm1

— Niners Nation (@NinersNation) November 30, 2021

}}

Anyway, the Seahawks are impossible to trust at any level right now. Russell Wilson can’t get the ball to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. We’re watching the death throes of an extremely productive partnership with Russ and Pete Carroll.

Here’s something from Graham:

“We faded Wilson last week and that looked great until he back-doored his way to a QB9 finish (19.5 FP) thanks to a 96-yard final drive in the two-minute drill. This Seahawks offense is absolutely abominable and has gone three-and-out on a whopping 14 of their 30 possessions since Wilson returned three weeks ago. Not only is Seattle’s scheme broken, this is by far the worst Russell Wilson has played in his career. Per SIS, Wilson ranks dead last in on-target throws (58.3%) over the last three weeks while owning the highest aDOT (average depth of target) in this span at 10.3 yards downfield. So, the problem is two-fold: 1) Seattle isn’t scheming up enough easy throws and 2) Wilson is missing too many throws to begin with. That’s a deadly combination, and we saw it play out like a slow-moving horror movie on MNF vs. Washington a few days ago. Now Wilson has a short week to get it figured out against a 49ers secondary that has given up just 11.2 passing points per game (fifth-fewest) over the last eight weeks. If you’re starting Wilson this week, it’s ideally in 2-QB / SuperFlex only.”

One thing that did pop up this week is a potential “squeaky wheel” narrative with Metcalf. It’s worked earlier this year, notably for Robert Woods and Justin Jefferson, but is Seattle functional enough for it? OC Shane Waldron wants to try.

The Seahawks signed Adrian Peterson this week to try to fix their ailing run game. Want a quick laugh? Watch the below. (Peterson is not a fantasy option.)