Week 11 Game Hub: DAL-KC

Dallas Cowboys (7-2, 8-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4, 3-7), 4:25 p.m.

Brolley’s Cowboys Stats and Trends

• Dallas has covered in its last four road games and in its last five games as an underdog.

• The Cowboys have played under the total in three straight games.

• Dallas’ 33-point lead (36-3) after 30 minutes against Atlanta was the franchise’s biggest halftime lead in 50 years.

• The Cowboys scored 40+ points for the third time last week.

• Dak Prescott has scored 19.9 FP or better in seven of his eight starts after carving up the Falcons for 296/2 passing while averaging 9.6 YPA and he added his first rushing TD of the season. The Chiefs have held three straight QBs under 20 FP (Carr, Love, Dimes), but they’re still giving up the second-most PFG (22.3) to QBs.

• CeeDee Lamb erupted for 6/94/2 receiving for 28.6 FP on a season-low 42% snap share in Dallas’ blowout victory. He’s scored 17+ FP in four of his last five contests, and he’s topped 80+ receiving yards in six of nine games. Primary slot WR Hunter Renfrow hung 17.6 FP in this matchup last week.

• Amari Cooper has come up small with a combined 6/88 receiving the last two weeks after running off 15+ FP and touchdowns in three of his previous four games. His target share sits at 20% for the season, and he’s topped six targets in a game just three times in nine tries. Bryan Edwards managed 3/88/1 receiving in this matchup last week, and the Chiefs are allowing the eighth-most receiving TDs per game (1.1) to WRs this season.

• Michael Gallup posted 3/42 receiving on five targets in his first game action since the season opener, and he played 51% of the snaps, which would’ve likely been higher if the Cowboys didn’t win by 40 points. The Chiefs are giving up a solid 13.7 YPR to WRs this season.

• Dalton Schultz has fallen below 10 FP in three straight games after reaching double-digit FP in five of his first six games. He had a season-worst 14-yard catch on two targets in Dallas’ blowout victory with Gallup returning to action. The Chiefs limited Darren Waller to 4/24 receiving on seven targets last week.

• Ezekiel Elliott has fallen below 70 rushing yards in four straight games, but he’s made up for it with 3+ catches in each game in that span — he reached three catches just once in his first five games. He’s seen his two lowest snap shares the last two weeks (53%, 49%), but the Cowboys were involved in two blowouts. The Chiefs limited Josh Jacobs to 12/36 scrimmage and they’re facing the fifth-fewest carries per game (18.6) from RBs.

• Tony Pollard saw his highest snap share (42%) in Dallas’ blowout victory last week, and he turned it into 15.8 FP with 11/42 rushing and 6/56 receiving. Kenyan Drake managed just 6/31 scrimmage against the Chiefs last week.

Brolley’s Chiefs Stats and Trends

• The Chiefs snapped a three-game ATS losing streak last week, and they ended a four-game under streak.

• Kansas City is still 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games, including a 1-10 ATS run in its last 11 home games.

• The Chiefs’ offense finally got going last week, notching 41 points against the Raiders after totaling 36 points in their three previous games against the Packers, Giants, and Titans.

• Patrick Mahomes carved up the Raiders for 406/5 passing while averaging 8.1 YPA to notch a season-best 36.2 FP last week. Mahomes totaled just 647/2 passing while averaging 5.4 YPA for 35.2 FP in his previous three games combined. The Cowboys have held four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced to fewer than 17 FP but none of them were of Mahomes’ caliber.

• Travis Kelce had a vintage performance last week with 8/119 receiving after falling below 70 receiving yards in five of his last six games. It hasn’t been pretty for Kelce’s standards in 2021, but he’s still hung 17+ FP in seven of his 10 games this season. Kyle Pitts quickly posted 4/60 receiving against the Cowboys last week before the Falcons pulled their top players in a blowout loss.

• Tyreek Hill has finished with fewer than 100 receiving yards in six straight games, but he’s making up for it with double-digit targets in five of those contests and four touchdowns in that span. He had his third-best performance of the season with 7/83/2 receiving against the Raiders. Kadarius Toney went for 10/189 in this matchup back in Week 5 and they’re allowing a generous 14.7 YPR to WRs.

• Mecole Hardman played a season-low 32% of the snaps while Byron Pringle got promoted to the #2 WR spot with a season-high 61% snap share. He turned his spike in playing time into a season-best 14.6 FP on 4/46/1 receiving against the Raiders. The Cowboys are giving up the 16th-most FPG (35.8) to WRs this season.

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee, IR) is nearing a return this week but HC Andy Reid hinted that they could sit him through their Week 12 bye if he’s not at 100% before Sunday. Darrel Williams is coming off a monster game against the Raiders, posting 9/101/1 receiving and 11/43 rushing for 29.4 FP. When CEH does return, Williams has played well enough to stay in the mix in obvious passing situations and at the goal line to make this a potentially messy fantasy backfield. The Cowboys are giving up a solid 124.5 scrimmage yards per game but just five TDs to RBs this season.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

Cowboys

Pace (seconds in between plays): 25.5 (4th)

Plays per game: 71.4 (5th)

Pass: 55.2% (27th) | Run: 44.8% (6th)

Chiefs

Pace: 26.6 (13th)

Plays per game: 76.6 (1st)

Pass: 66.2% (5th) | Run: 33.8% (28th)

All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.

Pace Points

This is the game we have to get right for DFS this week with so many mediocre games for Week 11. As you might expect, Cowboys-Chiefs is the No. 1 game on the slate – by miles – in terms of combined pace and play volume. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs rediscovered their ceiling while the Cowboys destroyed the Falcons in Week 10. Kansas City hit their first over since Week 5 as a result while Dallas is now averaging a whopping 33 point scored per game in Dak Prescott’s eight starts. Meanwhile, I’ve thought Dallas’ defense is overrated all year long. Sure, the Cowboys have generated the fourth-highest turnover rate, but they are also giving up the eighth-most yards per play (5.8) while facing a bunch of up-and-down offenses since Week 2 (Eagles / Panthers / Giants / Patriots / Vikings / Broncos / Falcons). If Mahomes stays hot, this game has the upside to hit 60-70 combined points.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

It was disappointing to see CeeDee Lamb doing so much of his work from the slot upon Michael Gallup’s return. Perhaps it was his own preference. If not, how it was decided that removing one of the most dynamic wideouts in the NFL from dismantling bigger opponents on the outside is beyond me. At the very least, Lamb should be worked in along the entire formation. You can’t argue with the immediate results, but they’ll need to remain consistent in order to justify the dramatic adjustment.

I can only imagine how Patrick Mahomes II must feel while preparing for this opponent. Mahomes definitely discovered something during his dismantling of that featured scheme of the Raiders last week. That’s why — to nobody’s surprise — it will be Mahomes that dictates the scoring in this game if Dallas’ elite ground game is unable to take control early. We witnessed uncharacteristic struggles from Mahomes only two weeks ago. We saw the best of him last week.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

The Cowboys rebounded from an all-time stinker in Week 9 to blow out the Falcons in Week 10, and from a fantasy perspective, it came with one particularly notable change — Michael Gallup returned to the lineup, and that meant CeeDee Lamb moved back into the slot. That’s an advantageous matchup for the Cowboys.

Unfortunately, with Amari Cooper landing on the COVID list on Friday — he’ll miss two games, since the Cowboys play on Thanksgiving — Lamb will probably move back outside. While he should still see targets if that is the case, the slot is a better spot for him this week.

On the year, the Chiefs are giving up over 90 yards per game and 58.7% of their production to slot receivers, which is the 6th-highest rate of production allowed to slot WRs this year. I loved Lamb this week in a projected shootout before the Cooper news. I still like him (the gamescript still sets up well), but Cooper being out really chaps my ass, especially since it’s a late-week bombshell.

Also — BREAKING NEWS — Dak Prescott isn’t a thief and didn’t steal $5 million from a teammate. What a great guy!

Prescott could possibly have some added protection this week from the left side. Not only are they benching LG Connor Williams for Connor McGovern, but star LT Tyron Smith (ankle) might play.

While the numbers didn’t come against the Packers in Week 9, our Greg Cosell mentioned that he thought the 13-7 win over the Packers was a step in the right direction for Kansas City’s struggling QB, Patrick Mahomes. Well, Mahomes took that step and then launched his way forward in a blowout of the Raiders in Week 10.

Here’s Cosell from his Week 10 tape study:

• You could see pretty quickly that Mahomes was much better playing within the structure and the order and purpose of the progressions, The ball was coming out of his hand with timing and a sense of rhythm, He took the throws that were there

• Chiefs coaching staff helped Mahomes with quick game concepts and screens to allow him to get into a rhythm and better play within the structure of the pass game

• What stood out was that Mahomes cut out almost all the unnecessary movement both inside and outside the pocket that had defined his game far too much over the last month

• This was Mahomes best game in quite some time: Efficient playing within structure, Strong sense of timing and rhythm, Took the throws that the offense gave him versus the defense

• Mahomes on 3rd down: 9-12 for 164 yards and TD, 8 of those 9 completions resulted in 1st downs

It does sound like we’re talking about a rookie here, but that’s not the case. At his best, Mahomes does have his elite out-of-structure playmaking, but it’s a supplement to the Chiefs’ fantastic play design. And he executed within that design last week.

This is just a gut feeling here, but I also think Mahomes and Chief WR Tyreek Hill have heard plenty about Trevon Diggs and all his INTs. I’m sure they also know how many big plays Diggs has given up this year — my guess is they’re going to try to take at least a couple deep shots on Diggs, and I love this matchup for Tyreek. I bet he gets Diggs at least once.

Anyway, did you remember that Josh Gordon was on this team?

If Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) sits again (he practiced this week with a chance to come off of IR), as Andy Reid alluded to with the Chiefs going on bye next week, it’s another great spot for Darrel Williams.

Here’s Graham from Start/Sit:

“Darrel with one L has been free money (and a free W) for anyone who wisely drafted him late or stashed him early in the year off of the waiver wire. Since taking over as the starter in Week 6 after CEH went down, Williams has cruised to 17.8 FPG and now has 226 receiving yards over his last five games. In 18 career starts, CEH has managed just 358 receiving yards… yikes. You guys know I was as big of a fan of CEH’s game as anyone, but I really can’t explain his lack of receiving production – especially considering how active Williams has been in Edwards-Helaire’s absence. In the highest total game of the week by far (56.5), you have to go back to Williams as a RB2 play with a RB1 ceiling if CEH sits again.”