DFS Early Look: Week 7

Another week of NFL football is in the books, which means that more NFL football is right around the corner. With both Fanduel and DraftKings having released their Week 7 DFS pricing, it’s time to look ahead to next Sunday’s DFS slate.

Here are the most glaring values I’ve found after analyzing pricing.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (AT LV)

DraftKings: $6,900 (QB7) | Fanduel: $8,300 (QB4)

Hurts is tied with Kyler Murray as the QB4, averaging 24.5 FPG. It’s easy to forget this, but if the season ended today, 24.5 FPG would rank as the 12th-best QB fantasy all-time. Hurt’s fantasy scoring has seen remarkable consistency, largely thanks to his rushing floor (10.0 rushing FPG), as he’s the only QB this season to score at least 20.0 fantasy points in every game he’s played. Hurts may not be an elite real life QB, but he’s bordering on fantasy MVP through his first six starts of 2021.

Hurts will be the cash game chalk on DraftKings this week as the QB7, but may go overlooked in Fanduel tournaments given he’s just $100 cheaper than Kyler Murray and $400 cheaper than Lamar Jackson, who both offer stronger matchups and are receiving the bulk of this season’s MVP hype.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $6,600 (RB5) | Fanduel: $8,000 (RB5)

Henderson is still a bell cow, even with a fully acclimated Sony Michel in the fold. And Week 7 brings Henderson arguably the best matchup any bell cow could have: Detroit. The Lions are 5th-worst in Football Outsiders rush DVOA (-2.9%), 9th-worst in PFF run defense grades (51.7), and 3rd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing RBs (29.9). And the Rams are favored by 14.5-points, suggesting one of the most run-heavy gamescripts we have seen this season. Needless to say, Henderson is about to get fed. Expect Henderson to be popular in all formats, especially on DraftKings where his $6600 price tag would have made him the RB11 last week.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions (AT LAR)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB11) | Fanduel: $7,100 (RB8)

On DraftKings, this is the 2nd-cheapest Swift has been this year, and on Fanduel he’s $200 cheaper than his average salary over the last four weeks. Despite being the RB9 (by FPG) on the year, he’s priced lower than his performance would indicate, as the RB11 on DraftKings and the RB8 Fanduel on a relatively small slate with just 10 games. Prior to Week 6, Swift had seen the 4th-best usage of any RB, averaging 18.6 XFP per game this season. And let’s not forget that Swift is seeing 7.0 targets per game, the 2nd-most of all RBs and an 18.6% target share (3rd-most). That’s a crucial note with the Lions listed as 14.5-point underdogs, as Swift has averaged 20.6 DraftKings FPG and 17.5 Fanduel FPG when the Lions are underdogs by 7.0-points or more this season (4 instances). Those numbers would rank 4th-best and 6th-best among RBs on the year. He’s clearly underpriced, and is already looking to be one of my favorite plays of the week.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans (AT ARI)

DraftKings: $6,000 (WR14) | Fanduel: $6,500 (WR18)

Brandin Cooks has averaged 9.8 targets per game, 91.2 receiving yards per game, and 18.5 FPG since Will Fuller was suspended for PEDs in Week 13 of 2020. This season, those numbers would rank 9th-, 7th-, and 6th-best among WRs. Cooks has the advantage of being really good at football, but more importantly, playing on arguably the worst team in football, and thus, tons of negative gamescript. The Texans have a scoring differential of -13.3 PPG this season, the worst in the NFL. And with Houston heading to Arizona as a 17.5-point underdog, Week 7 doesn’t suggest any reason for that to change.

The Cardinals are on the tougher side of matchups as PFF’s 3rd-highest graded pass defense (75.0 team coverage grade), but I’m not sure that’s going to matter much given Cooks’ 32.8% target share, which ranks 4th among all players. If Houston gets blown out as expected, Cooks could see 15 targets or more. That kind of usage upside should undoubtedly make Cooks one of the highest-owned WRs of Week 7, especially on Fanduel where he’s the WR18.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. CHI)

DraftKings: $5,900 (WR15) | Fanduel: $6,700 (WR17)

Godwin is the cheapest he’s been on DraftKings since Week 11 of last season, and the cheapest he’s been on Fanduel since Week 17 of 2018 (!). The value here is obvious: Godwin plays on the best offense in football, and currently ranks 2nd on the team in targets (43), 1st in routes (264), 1st in red zone targets (17, 5 more than the next closest player), and tied for 1st in end zone target (4). After averaging 16.7 FPG in his first 14 regular season games with Tom Brady, Godwin’s DFS salaries took a borderline inexplicable dive after he averaged 10.6 FPG over the last three weeks. Against a Bears’ secondary that’s PFF’s 3rd-worst graded coverage unit, I’m ready to #BuyTheDip. Especially on Fanduel, Godwin may not be this cheap again this season. He’s the top value among the Bucs' WRs this week, and is an outstanding tournament play with the potential to be cash viable on Fanduel.

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR18) | Fanduel: $6,500 (WR18)

Kadarius Toney (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), and Darius Slayton (hamstring), are all currently in danger of missing Week 7. On Sunday, Sterling Shepard tied for the league lead in targets (14) and led the Giants in target share (25%) with all three of those players either ruled out pregame (Golladay and Slayton) or immediately leaving the game after reaggravating their injury (Toney). That leaves Shepard as essentially the last WR standing ahead of a matchup with Carolina.

In his three healthy games this year, Shepard has seen 11.0 targets per game for a 24% target share and 19.8 FPG. For perspective, a 24% target share would currently rank 18th among WRs while 11.0 targets per game would tie with Davante Adams for 2nd among all players. 19.8 FPG would rank 6th among all WRs. And two of the games in that sample came with Toney, Slayton, and Golladay all healthy.

Now Shepard is staring a Davante Adams-esque workload square in the face ahead of a Week 7 matchup with Carolina, if New York is missing it’s other receiving weapons. At a WR18 price tag, that could make Shepard one of, if not the, highest owned WR in Week 7.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens (VS. CIN)

DraftKings: $3,400 (WR63) | Fanduel: $5,300 (WR46)

With Baltimore throwing the ball at a 7% higher rate than in 2019 and 2020, there may be room for a third fantasy-relevant pass catching option in this offense. Enter Rashod Bateman. In his first NFL game this past week, Bateman tied with Mark Andrews for the team lead in targets (6), ran the 3rd-most routes on the team (22), and finished 3rd on the team in receiving yards (29). Granted, this did come with Sammy Watkins (hamstring) out of the lineup. Still, given the draft capital the Ravens have invested, and that Bateman only has one game under his belt, it’s reasonable to assume his usage has nowhere to go from here but up. Should Watkins sit out Week 7, Bateman’s median projection will likely make him a value on DraftKings as the WR63 (by salary), but his target volume and ceiling will likely be limited with the Ravens still being one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL. I’ll likely have some exposure given the potential for a great projected points per dollar value, but certainly won’t be going overboard here.

Mack Hollins, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. ATL)

DraftKings: $3,000 (WR74) | Fanduel: $5,100 (WR64)

With DeVante Parker (shoulder) and Preston Williams (groin) both out Sunday, Mack Hollins led the Dolphins in routes (50) and caught 4 of his 5 targets (11% target share) for 61 total yards, finishing the game with 10.1 fantasy points. Sure, that’s not eye-popping usage, but if Parker and Williams miss Week 7, Hollins will be an every down player who should see roughly 10% of team passes come his way at the minimum WR price on DraftKings. Hollins plays almost exclusively outside and has an aDOT of 15.1 - presenting big play upside that low-aDOT, primarily slot WRs typically lack. Should Parker and Williams miss Week 7, Hollins offers arguably the best combination of floor and ceiling we’ve seen from a minimum-priced WR on DraftKings in at least a month.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team (AT GB)

DraftKings: $3,700 (TE13) | Fanduel: $5,400 (TE11)

RSJ has seen some of the best usage of any TE over the last two weeks. In Weeks 5 and 6, Seals-Jones ranked 6th among TEs in targets (13), 3rd in routes (78), 2nd in red zone targets (4), tied with Mark Andrews for 1st in end zone targets (3), and 9th in FPG (12.5).

Seal-Jones having an 89% route share and playing on a team that’s managed to trail as much as Washington has sets him up as a low- to mid-tier TE1 until Logan Thomas returns from IR. And we can’t forget that Thomas wasn’t cheaper than $4,600 on DraftKings or $5,500 on Fanduel in any healthy game he played this season. Jones is still underpriced. With Washington as 9.5-point underdogs to Green Bay, a still-underpriced RSJ gets to see more of the negative gamescript that’s helped earn him the 3rd-most routes of any TE over the last two weeks. He’s a solid tournament play on Fanduel, but is an outstanding play yet again on DraftKings, where he should be priced about $800 higher.