My props for the Wild Card Round ended up being a little worse than usual. I still had some close losses, like Lamar Jackson’s passing yardage, which I missed by 12 yards, and James Conner, whose rushing total missed by 9 yards. I also missed Zach Pascal’s receiving total by 2.5 yards. I also got screwed injury-wise by Ronald Jones, and Zack Moss also got hurt. New this week, though, a couple of guys came up really small, which is actually quite rare for me this year. Corey Davis forgot to show up, and TY Hilton was getting the ball early but then dropped two balls and Philip Rivers didn’t look for him again.
I bring all this up because I’m once again due for some good luck.
Last week’s record: 10-10
Season record: 160-138
- Gus Edwards (Bal, at Buf) OVER 34.5 rushing yards on BETMGM - The number is the same on DK, but the odds are much better on BETMGM. The Ravens running game should get it done in this beatable matchup, and Edwards is rolling with 12.3 touches per game with 5.5 YPC the last four weeks, so he should need only 7-8 carries to hit this, if that.
- Jarvis Landry (Cle, at KC) OVER 58.5 receiving yards on BETMGM - The number is the same on DK, the odds are just a little better on BETMGM. Landry has posted 5+ catches and 50+ receiving yards in six straight, and Baker Mayfield’s damn near a lock to throw it 35-40 times, so Landry’s damn near a lock to get 10+ targets. Landry is playing his best football right now, so he’s easy to back.
- Jared Cook (NO, vs. TB) OVER 2.5 receptions on DK - The odds are bad at -167, but I feel good about this pick. I was 2-0 on Cook props here last week. Cook has posted 40+ yards in three straight with 4+ targets in six straight. Cook also posted 7/110 receiving on 10 targets against the Bucs this season. Logan Thomas posted a promising 5/74 in this matchup last week, and the Bucs gave up an encouraging 6/52/.8 to TEs the last four weeks. If this turns into a higher-scoring affair, Cook will get this by the third quarter.
- Austin Hooper (Cle, at KC) OVER 3.5 receptions on BETMGM - I’ve been all about Hooper down the stretch this year, including last week, and I have zero regrets. I’m gladly back this week because he’s rolling with 13+ FP in four straight with a TD in 4 of his last 6. The Chiefs have been a good matchup all year for TEs, as they are giving up 5.3/59.6/.6 receiving per game for 14.5 FP to TEs (7th-most) this season. Over their last four games, they’re giving up even more (18.9 FP to TEs), and the Browns are a lock to throw it 35-40 times.
- Cole Beasley (Buf, vs. Bal) OVER 3.5 receptions on BETMGM - The odds are bad at -175, but Beasley is off the injury report, which means he’s probable. He’s still sore, but he's going to play. Beasley has 10+ targets in five of his last 10 games, and it’s inconceivable for Beasley to NOT hit 4 catches in what is a tougher matchup but what should be an offensive-oriented game.
- Lamar Jackson (Bal, at Buf) OVER 196.5 passing yards on DK - I did lose a very similar bet last week (over 199.5 passing yards), but I lost it by only by 12 yards, and that was a game in which Ryan Tannehill had only 165 yards passing and 6 yards rushing. I think Josh Allen is going to pose more of a threat (duh), so Lamar’s a good bet to hit this one.
- Aaron Jones (GB, vs. LAR) OVER 68.5 rushing yards on DK - Given the tough matchup for their passing game, I think it makes sense to make a stronger-than-usual commitment to Jones. The Rams haven’t allowed an individual back to post 85+ scrimmage yards since September, but they really haven’t faced any great backs this year. Jones is a great back who is at 6.3 YPC his last four games, so he needs only 12-13 carries at that pace to hit this.
- Mark Andrews (Bal, vs. TB) OVER 54.5 receiving yards on DK - Andrews has a solid 4+ catches in seven straight, and the middle of the field was wide open for Philip Rivers last week, and Colts TEs totaled an incredible 14/136/1 in this matchup. I don’t think the Bills can contain Lamar Jackson on the ground and also stop Andrews down the seam, so a blowup game for Andrews would not surprise me.
- Antonio Brown (TB, at NO) OVER 54.5 receiving yards on DK - Brown has looked phenomenal the last 2-3 games and he will also get the best matchup at times in the slot. Heck, he might be able to easily blow past Janoris Jenkins for a big play outside, as well, since Jenkins doesn’t run well anymore. Brown and Chris Godwin will be busy, given the tough matchup for Mike Evans.
- Drew Brees (NO, vs. TB) OVER 1.5 TD passes on DK - Tampa’s pass rush has hurt their overall defense lately, which is a problem against Brees, who gets the ball out quicker than anyone. In the previous meetings against this Bucs’ secondary in Week 9, Brees completed 81% of his passes for 222/4, and in his last three games dating back to last year and including Week 1 of this year, Brees is at a 74% completion rate with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. Last week, Michael Thomas looked great, and now Brees should get Tre’Quan Smith back, which gives him another viable target and solid playmaker. He’s a good bet to hit this one as the tough Buc run defense slows Alvin Kamara and a banged up Latavious Murray down in the running game.
Also:
Jarvis Landry (Cle, at KC) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
Chris Godwin (TB, at NO) OVER 67.5 TD passes on DK
Alvin Kamara (NO, vs. TB) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
Cam Akers (LAR, at GB) OVER 14.5 receiving yards on DK
3:20pm Update: WR Cooper Kupp is out, which can only help this prop’s chances of winning.
- Robert Tonyan (GB, vs. LAR) OVER 33.5 receiving yards on DK
