Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 5. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. My first wagers of the week will be posted around 9:30 a.m. on Mondays. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
Initial spread picks will be posted around 9 a.m. Mondays. Join our “NFL-Betting” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
GAME PICKS
2024 Best Bets ATS Record: 8-8 (50%, -.8 units); W5: 2-1 (+.85)
2024 Overall ATS Record (from Staff Picks): 44-31-1 (58.7%); W5: 6-7
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, FanDuel) vs. New York Jets (W)
The Vikings are off to a perfect 4-0 outright and ATS and they’ve done it by knocking off three playoff teams from 2023 in the Packers, Texans, and 49ers. Sam Darnold is leading the NFL in passing TDs (11) and passer rating (118.9) through four weeks while Minnesota’s defense has allowed the fifth-fewest PPG (14.8) despite facing a gauntlet to open the season. The Jets own just one impressive performance through four weeks when they dominated the NFL’s worst team, the Patriots, as the home team on Thursday Night Football. They also lost by 13 points to the 49ers in the season opener, whom the Vikings beat by 6 points in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers will likely play a little banged up after getting a little banged up against the Broncos. The pressure is on the Jets to have a respectable showing against the Vikings or else Robert Saleh might not make it off the plane on the trip back from London with a job. I’m expecting the Vikings to close as field-goal favorites or higher in this neutral-site game so I’m laying the points early in the week. Placed Sept. 30. Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Carolina Panthers (+4.5, FanDuel) at Chicago Bears (L)
The Bears are still a little bit overrated despite beating the Rams in Week 4 while the Panthers are still a little bit undervalued despite failing to cover against the Bengals. Chicago covered against Los Angeles but the Rams outgained the Bears on a per-play basis (5.6>4.9). Andy Dalton has given Carolina’s offense a spark by leading the Panthers to 60 combined points in his first two starts. Carolina’s defense actually has a chance to slow down a Bears offense that’s tied with the Browns for the fewest yards per play at 3.9, and Chicago lost offensive lineman Teven Jenkins to a rib injury in Week 4. I have the Bears projected closer to field-goal favorites in this matchup so I’ll take a little extra cushion with the Panthers. Placed Sept. 30. Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit. Bet to Panthers +3.5
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5, DraftKings) at San Francisco 49ers (W)
I prefer betting on the Cardinals in an underdog role after they flopped against the Commanders as 3.5-point home favorites. They played in one-possession games against superior opponents in the Bills and Lions already this season, and they’ll be tasked with doing it against the 49ers this week to cover the spread. The 49ers covered as 10.5-point home favorites against the Patriots in Week 4, but they gave New England multiple chances to come in the backdoor for a cover, which came a week after the 49ers lost outright to the Rams as 6.5-point road favorites. Arizona should get Trey McBride back from his concussion this week, and his matchup could be a little easier if Fred Warner is unable to play through an ankle injury he picked up in Week 4. I have the Cardinals projected closer to 6.5-point road underdogs so I’ll grab the touchdown plus the hook with Arizona early in the week. It doesn’t hurt that underdogs of 6+ points are covering at an 88% clip (14-2-1) through four weeks. Placed Sept. 30. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Bet to Cardinals +7.
PLAYER PROPS
2024 Player Props Record: 36-23 (61.0%, +8 units); W5: 6-2 (+3.45)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Chris Godwin (Atl) over 5.5 receptions (-145, ESPNBet) (L)
- FP Projection: 6.3 receptions, 6+ receptions in every game, ATL deploys the 8th-most zone coverage (76.6%) and Godwin owns 12 receptions and .24 TPRR on 62 routes against zone coverage, ATL has allowed the 2nd-most receptions (39) to receivers aligned in the slot, road underdogs and TB ranks 2nd in PROE (8.3%)
London
Aaron Jones (Min) over 63.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365) (L)
- FP Projection: 80.9 yards, has accounted for 93+ rushing yards in 8 of his 9 games, ranks third YACO/ATT (3.58), NYJ giving up the 13th-most rushing YPG (102.3) and 4.6 YPC to RBs, previously deceased Javonte Williams churned out 16/77 rushing against NYJ in W4
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) over 22.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365) (W)
- FP Projection: 38 yards, #RevengeGame, owns a team-best 20% target share on 34 routes against pressure and he’s averaging 1.97 YPRR against zone coverage, MIN is allowing the 9th-most receiving YPG (50.0) to TEs
Sunday
Josh Allen (Buf) under 236.5 passing yards (-110, Bet365) (W)
- FP Projection: 206 yards, 232 or fewer yards in 3-of-4 games, HOU is giving up the 5th-fewest passing YPG (184.0) to QBs, HOU has yet to allow more than 212 yards, #1 WR Shakir dealing with an ankle injury and Allen is a little banged up too
Matthew Stafford (LAR) over 225.5 passing yards (-110, Bet365) (W)
- FP Projection: 259 yards, Stafford has fallen just below 225 in 3 straight games but he’s also finished below 30 attempts in each of those games, he’s still averaging 7.9 YPA in that span and this is a matchup to attack through the air and they could be in a negative script as 3-point home underdogs GB is giving up the 7th-most passing YPG (254.3) and 260+ yards in 3-of-4 games
Zack Moss (Cin) over 13.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP Projection: 24.4 yards, 17+ yards in 3-of-4 game and 9 receptions in last 2 games w/ Higgins back, 4 different RBs have hit 14+ yards against BAL, BAL allowing the 11th-most receiving YPG (36.5), a more pass-heavy script should keep Moss on the field more over Brown
Brian Thomas (Jax) over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)
- FP Projection: 54.4 yards, ranks 5th in team yards share (36.6%) and 12th in receiving yards (275), 9 targets in each of last 2 games, IND deploys the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.1%) and Thomas is averaging 3.97 YPRR and .28 TPRR on 32 routes against the coverage, Pickens posted 7/113 receiving in this matchup in W4, Flacco could play to elevate the passing on both sides
Jordan Mason (SF) over 81.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (W)
- FP Projection: 111.7 yards, 100+ yards in 3-of-4 games, 19+ carries in every game, ARI is giving up the 9th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.22) and the 6th-highest rate of successful runs (54.9%), ARI is allowing the 3rd-most rushing YPG (125.3)
Monday Night Football
Travis Kelce (KC) over 5.5 receptions (+100, FanDuel)
- FP Projection: 5.9 receptions, new #1 receiver with Rice out, 7/89 receiving w/ Rice leaving early last week, NO deploys the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (35.5%) and Kelce is averaging .23 TPRR and a team-best 3.38 YPRR on 26 routes against man coverage, Goedert (10) and Schoonmaker (6) each reached 6+ catches in 2 of the last 3 games against the Saints
2024 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
My Power Rankings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams, which will be updated every week once the regular season starts. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These rankings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Rankings into account when I make my weekly against-the-spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
Example: My top-rated team, the San Francisco 49ers (6), would be 10-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the New England Patriots (-4). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the 49ers would be 11.5-point favorites over the Dolphins at home and 8.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | Ranking Adjustment | Super Bowl Odds | 2023 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | — | +650 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 2. | Detroit Lions | 6 | +.5 | +1100 | 3-1 (3-1) |
| 3. | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | -1 | +500 | 4-0 (3-1) |
| 4. | Baltimore Ravens | 5.5 | +1 | +800 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 5. | Buffalo Bills | 5 | — | +1000 | 3-1 (2-2) |
| 6. | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | +2.5 | +1700 | 4-0 (4-0) |
| 7. | Houston Texans | 3.5 | -.5 | +1300 | 3-1 (0-3-1) |
| 8. | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | -.5 | +1400 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 9. | New York Jets | 3 | -.5 | +2100 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 10. | Green Bay Packers | 3 | — | +2700 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.5 | — | +3000 | 1-3 (2-2) |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | -1 | +2100 | 1-2 (1-2-1) |
| 13. | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | — | +3200 | 3-1 (1-2-1) |
| 14. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.5 | -.5 | +5000 | 3-1 (3-1) |
| 15. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.5 | +.5 | +3700 | 3-1 (3-1) |
| 16. | Atlanta Falcons | 1 | — | +2700 | 2-2 (1-3) |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | 1 | -.5 | +5000 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 18. | Los Angeles Chargers | 1 | — | +6500 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 19. | Arizona Cardinals | .5 | -.5 | +8500 | 1-3 (2-2) |
| 20. | Washington Commanders | 0 | +1 | +5000 | 3-1 (3-1) |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | +.5 | +11000 | 0-4 (2-2) |
| 22. | Chicago Bears | -.5 | — | +6000 | 2-2 (2-1-1) |
| 23. | Indianapolis Colts | -.5 | +.5 | +5000 | 2-2 (3-1) |
| 24. | Los Angeles Rams | -.5 | -.5 | +8500 | 1-3 (1-2) |
| 25. | Cleveland Browns | -1 | -1.5 | +6500 | 1-3 (1-3) |
| 26. | Las Vegas Raiders | -2 | — | +14000 | 2-2 (2-2) |
| 27. | New York Giants | -2 | +.5 | +18000 | 1-3 (1-2-1) |
| 28. | Denver Broncos | -2 | +.5 | +17000 | 2-2 (3-1) |
| 29. | Tennessee Titans | -2.5 | — | +16000 | 1-3 (1-3) |
| 30. | Carolina Panthers | -2.5 | +.5 | +40000 | 1-3 (1-3) |
| 31. | Miami Dolphins | -4 | -.5 | +11000 | 1-3 (0-4) |
| 32. | New England Patriots | -4 | -1 | +24000 | 1-3 (1-2-1) |
