DFS Early Look: Week 14

Another week of NFL football is in the books, which means that more NFL football is right around the corner. With both FanDuel and DraftKings having released their Week 14 DFS pricing, it’s time to look ahead to next Sunday’s DFS slate.

Here are the most glaring values I’ve found after analyzing pricing.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (AT WAS)

DraftKings: $6,700 (QB6) | FanDuel: $8,100 (QB5)

Prescott has had quite a bit of volatility in his fantasy performances over the last 4 weeks, averaging 25.8 FPG in his best 2 games, but just 6.9 FPG in his other 2 games.

Granted, it’s certainly worth noting that Prescott has only had his top 3 WRs at full health in Week 1 (where he scored 27.4 fantasy points) and Week 10 (26.3), so we only have a minuscule, but quite impressive sample of how Prescott performs when this offense is at full strength.

Thankfully for Dak, his 3 top options should all be healthy heading into Week 14, and the offense draws a spectacular matchup against Washington. No defense has been more favorable to opposing QBs, allowing 24.2 FPG (most), and +4.9 schedule-adjusted FPG (most) this season. The Football Team also ranks 3rd-worst in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA (27.6%) and 8th-worst in PFF coverage grades (50.5). This is easily one of the most exploitable pass defenses in the NFL. And teams know that, which has led to the Washington defense facing the highest pass rate over expectation (+6.6%) this season.

Dallas enters this game with an implied team total of 27.0 points, and Dak has averaged 25.0 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 FanDuel FPG when the Cowboys team total is 26.0 points or more over the last 3 seasons (25 instances).

And he’s available at a relative discount, clocking in at his cheapest price on DraftKings since Week 4, and his cheapest price on FanDuel since Week 10.

There’s a lot to love here, and I’d expect Prescott to be chalk in Week 14 as a result.

Leonard Fournette. RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $7,400 (RB5) | FanDuel: $7,600 (RB5)

Over the last 4 games, Fournette leads all slate-eligible RBs in targets per game (7.8) and FPG (24.2), while also ranking 4th in touches (79). More importantly, Fournette has eclipsed an 80% snap share in each of the last 2 weeks, something he has only managed to do once previously during the regular season in his Buccaneers tenure (Week 4).

Fournette is now a true bell cow on the league’s highest-scoring offense (31.4 PPG), commanding 79% of RB opportunities over the last 2 weeks in a backfield that’s averaging 27.9 FPG (6th-most). This is an extremely valuable role, and despite the tough on paper matchup, Fournette still appears underpriced.

The Buccaneers are 3.5-point favorites this week, and their 28.0 implied team total signals that oddsmakers expect another strong offensive performance from the defending Super Bowl champions. That’s surely good news for Fournette, who averages 21.2 DraftKings FPG and 18.4 FanDuel FPG in Buccaneers wins this season, and 20.4 DraftKings FPG and 17.6 FanDuel FPG when the Bucs’ implied team total is over 27.5 this year. Both of those marks easily make Fournette a top-3 RB on this slate, and yet he’s the RB5 on both sites.

Buffalo ranks as the 6th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs based on schedule-adjusted FPG this year (-2.7), but they’ve been significantly more vulnerable lately, allowing +0.5 schedule-adjusted FPG over their last 5 games (13th-most). So this matchup isn’t nearly as difficult as it initially appears.

Given his recent play and usage, I expect Fournette to be one of the most popular RBs of the week, especially on DraftKings.

Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB9) | FanDuel: $7,400 (RB7)

It could be a one week outlier, but Elijah Mitchell maintained bell cow status even with pass catching RB JaMycal Hasty back in the fold. Should Mitchell continue to earn 90% of backfield opportunities going forward, then we are looking at approximately 19.9 FPG, given this backfield has averaged 22.1 FPG this season. That, on its own, makes Mitchell a clear value, as 19.9 FPG would rank 2nd among all slate-eligible RBs in Week 14, behind only Austin Ekeler.

He also draws a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati team (albeit as 1.0-point underdogs) that has allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+3.1) and the 3rd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (14.0) -- an important note given Mitchell has commanded 90% of backfield targets and 89% of backfield routes over the last 2 weeks.

With all that said, Mitchell has entered concussion protocol, so he’s questionable to play this week. But if Mitchell plays, he’s a great value on both sites this week. I’m most interested in him on DraftKings, where he’s relatively cheaper and figures to benefit more from his expanded receiving role.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (AT KC)

DraftKings: $6,200 (RB12) | FanDuel: $7,100 (RB11)

With Kenyan Drake done for the year, it seems most are assuming Drake’s receiving role (3.0 targets per game, 14.1 routes per game) will go to scat-back Jalen Richard. But, at least ahead of Week 14, Richard is currently on the COVID-19/reserve list, and is unvaccinated, putting him in danger of missing the Raiders upcoming contest in Kansas City. Should Richard miss, we will basically have every reason to view Jacobs as a bell cow this Sunday as he should command the entirety of backfield receiving work and a massive percentage of backfield XFP. And even if Richard plays, Jacobs has been trusted with a significantly larger receiving role this season (4.5 targets per game, +1.5 from previous career-high), so the presence of Richard may not hurt Jacobs as much as it would have in previous years.

Regardless, if Jacobs manages to steal even half of Kenyan Drake’s 9.2 FPG, then we are looking at somewhere in the realm of 19.8 FPG — a mark that ties with Alvin Kamara for 2nd among all slate-eligible RBs.

Now, the Raiders are 9.5-point underdogs, so Jacobs ability to stay involved in the receiving game (and the status of Richard), will be what ends up making or breaking this play. With that said, the industry seems to only view Jacobs as a solid play when the Raiders are strong favorites, creating a solid potential contrarian opportunity given Jacobs ranks 5th among RBs in routes (90) and 4th in targets (25) over the last four weeks.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $7,100 (WR6) | FanDuel: $7,700 (WR5)

Godwin is coming off of the highest-volume game of his career, recording 17 targets and 30.2 fantasy points against Atlanta on Sunday. On the season, he’s tied for 3rd among slate-eligible WRs in FPG (17.6), but is priced slightly below that mark, likely do to the brutal on paper matchup against Buffalo, a team that’s allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-5.7) to opposing WR1s and the 4th-fewest FPG (10.8) to opposing slot WRs.

That tough matchup may turn people away from Godwin initially, but there are still plenty of reasons to be bullish. For starters, Tampa Bay offers an implied team total of 28.0 points, and Godwin has averaged 18.2 DraftKings FPG and 14.4 FanDuel FPG over the last 2 seasons when the Buccaneers team total is over 27.0 points. Perhaps more noteworthy, the Buffalo defense has funneled targets to the slot this season, allowing a 43% target share to opposing slot WRs (6th-most).

The Buccaneers are the most pass-happy offense in the NFL, and if they take what Buffalo gives them through the air, it should mean massive target volume for Godwin. It will be interesting to see how ownership shakes out, as people may be far more intimidated by this matchup than is necessary. Should that be the case, Godwin shapes up as an excellent tournament play on both sites.

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (AT CLE)

DraftKings: $6,300 (WR14) | FanDuel: $7,000 (WR12)

Brown ranks 2nd among all WRs in targets per game (11.2) but 21st in FPG (14.6) over the last 5 games. So, he’s seeing outstanding, high-end WR1 volume (23.0 XFP per game from Week 7 through 12), but is massively underproducing (approximately -8.4 PAR). Granted, it’s far from all Brown’s fault, as QB Lamar Jackson has struggled massively as of late, recording the worst PFF passing grade (40.6) of any QB since Week 9. History tells us Jackson surely isn’t this bad throwing the football, and that means better days are likely ahead for Brown, assuming he maintains this stellar volume.

Cleveland has been burned by opposing WR1s this season, allowing the 3rd-most schedule adjusted FPG (+3.3). Based on Brown’s production over the last 5 weeks, he’s looking at somewhere in the realm of 17.9 fantasy points in Week 14, using our schedule-adjustment. 17.9 FPG would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible WRs, and remember, that’s with the assumption that Browns continues to underproduce relative to his expectation.

This is far too risky of a play for cash games with how poorly Jackson is passing the ball, but for tournaments, I anticipate Brown being one of my top targets this week.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (AT TEN)

DraftKings: $3,400 (WR63) | FanDuel: $5,100 (WR57)

Treadwell obviously isn’t a player I want to target in a given week, but with his current role and salary, he does appear to be a value headed into Week 14. Over the last three games, Treadwell ranks 2nd on the team in targets per game (5.3), routes per game (29.0), FPG (7.2), and 1st in receiving yards per game (42.0).

Is that an incredibly valuable role? No, not at all. But, as punt plays at WR go, Treadwell is one of the few who offer a guaranteed full-time role and a decent target floor (5 or more targets in each of the last 2 weeks), thus securing his value in a price range that’s devoid of consistency.

Jacksonville is a 9.0-point underdog this week — the 2nd-largest spread of the main slate — meaning the Jaguars will almost certainly need to air the ball out to have a chance. And the matchup is certainly favorable, with Tennessee allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.7) to opposing WRs this season.

It’s understandable to have trepidation with plays like this, but if you are looking to punt WR, Treadwell is arguably your best bet.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. LVR)

DraftKings: $7,400 (TE1) | FanDuel: $7,500 (TE1)

Kelce hasn’t exceeded 20.0 fantasy points since Week 2, but a ceiling performance is certainly possible this week as the Raiders are an outstanding matchup for opposing TEs.

Las Vegas has allowed 17.0 FPG to opposing TEs (2nd-most) and the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+3.3). They have also been a tough matchup on deep balls for opposing WRs, allowing the 7th-fewest YPG (30.9) on passes down the field. That suggests, at least to me, that Las Vegas will do everything they can to prevent Tyreek Hill from beating them over the top — opening the door for Kelce to feast underneath.

And that is what we saw the last time these teams met, as Kelce earned a season-high 119 receiving yards on the back of 10 targets, scoring 19.9 fantasy points.

We can’t forget we are dealing with one of the best fantasy TEs of all time. Kelce has averaged 19.7 DraftKings FPG in his last 27 regular season games, a mark that’s 20% better than the TE2 on the season (Rob Gronkowski) and would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible WRs. And if we did consider Kelce a WR, he’d only be the WR5 (by salary) on DraftKings and the WR7 on FanDuel.

Kelce is a strong play on both sites, but I’ll have the majority of my exposure on FanDuel, where it’s typically more worthwhile to pay up for TE.