This Week’s DFS SuperModel highlights the most glaring salaries of the week:
Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
You can also use the FPTS/$ column to find values, which you’ll find here
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 7:
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Model (DK: +1013 / FD: +476)
Aaron Jones is going to be popular this week. However, it is tough to justify a fade outside of the high projected ownership. He is the top RB value on the SuperModel. Since Week 5 of last year, he has 6 games of 30+ fantasy points. This season he ranks 3rd in average XFP (22 XFP). He gets a matchup against the Texans where he can reach that huge ceiling he has shown. Texans allow the 2nd most schedule-adjusted FPTS/game to RBs. They are allowing the 2nd most FPTS/carry (0.913) and 6.25 YPC (most). The Packers should give him rushing attempts this week in a positive game script (3.5-point favorites) after just 10 last week in comeback mode. The game has the highest O/U on the slate (57 implied pts). Davante Adams also draws a tougher matchup against Bradley Roby. Roby ranks Top 20 in both fewest yards/snap allowed and targets/snap highlighting his prowess in coverage thus far (CBs w/ 50%+ snaps).
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
Projections (DK: 2.42X / FD: 1.88X) Model (FD: +611)
Maybe Mike Davis is human. He came back to earth last week in a tougher matchup against the Bears. The matchup does not get any easier this week against the Saints who have been one of the most consistent run defenses over the past year. They are allowing the 3rd fewest YPC (3.42) and a success rate of 37%. Expect the Panthers to compete in this game through the air. Robby Anderson’s usage in the Panthers passing game should not be understated. He is 11th in air yards share (36.3%) and 8th in target share (25.8%). Anderson gets a boost from the positive game script (7.5-point underdogs). As 8.5-point underdogs against the Buccaneers, Anderson went 9/109 on 10 targets. They had a 66% pass rate that game and Teddy Bridgewater had his most pass attempts this year (42).
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Projections (DK: 2.88X / FD: 2.19X) Model (DK: +649)
A pivot from the Seahawks passing attack in a popular game stack is Chris Carson. He pops as the 5th biggest salary value on DraftKings. He has been a pleasant surprise in PPR scoring with 4.2 catches/game. The biggest thing we want here is Carson to be the player scoring for the Seahawks. He is seeing 1.2 opportunities/game inside the 5. If Carson can steal one or two touchdowns from Russell Wilson, he could be a very profitable play.
The game environment could not be much better. Both teams are Top 10 in neutral game script pace. In neutral game scripts, the Cardinals are running no-huddle 45% of the time. No other team is above 20%. The Seahawks are also the pass-heaviest team in the league in neutral scripts (62%).
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
Model (DK: +1094)
The SuperModel loves itself some Terry McLaurin this week. His expected salary is the No. 1 value on DraftKings. Looking at the implied total (23.5 points), we see a 30% increase from their 18 PPG (30th) on the season. McLaurin has been receiving elite usage which will translate nicely here. He has the 2nd highest percentage of team air yards (45.1%) and a 27.6% target share (6th highest for WR). Has the 4th most routes run among WRs as well. The usage is not the question at all and his price of WR19 on DraftKings seems like a misprint. The Cowboys are allowing the 5th most schedule adjusted FPTS/game to WR. McLaurin could easily finish as the top value at WR this week and especially on DraftKings.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans
Projections (DK: 2.38X / FD: 1.44X)
I am expecting the Titans run game to struggle against the Steelers. That has made Derrick Henry one of my biggest fades this week and to counter that I am looking at Jonnu Smith. Per SIS, The Steelers are allowing the lowest success rate (28%) on RB rush attempts and lowest FPTS/game for rushing only (5.4). Due to this, the Steelers have been one of the biggest pass funnels. In coverage, they play 58.4% of it in a zone that is held together with an elite athlete the likes of Devin Bush. Unfortunately for them, Bush was placed on Injured Reserve and the zone coverage will see some hiccups especially over the middle against Jonnu Smith. The Titans should look to test that early and often. Per PFF, Smith has 137 of his yards (58.5%) and 3 of his 5 TDs between the numbers. He has a great chance of hitting double digit fantasy points again as he did in every game before leaving midgame due to injury last week.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Projections (DK: 3.37X / FD: 2.61X)
The Bengals offer one of the cheapest high upside passing game stacks this week. As I mention below with a low priced WR option in A.J. Green; with Joe Mixon ruled Out, the Bengals should rely on their passing game against a Browns defense that is already a pass funnel. In their first game against the Browns, Joe Burrow finished with 61 pass attempts. While I do not expect him to reach that number again, we should see 40+ pass attempts. In neutral game scripts, the Bengals already have a 61% pass rate (2nd highest). On the season, Burrow has been a positive regression candidate with his high pass attempts (2nd most per game) and rushing ability. He has the biggest negative differential between actual fantasy points and expected fantasy points (30.9 FPTS less than expected). If looking for a cheap QB play this week, Burrow is your guy.
Low Price Tight End
Austin Hooper was starting to become one of the more consistent TEs amongst the tight end wasteland this year. Among TEs, he is 5th in target share (19.8%) and trending up over the past 3 games with 7.7 targets/game (24.2% target share). However, he is now ruled out this week due to an appendectomy. That frees up David Njoku ($3,000) and Harrison Bryant ($2,500) as major salary relief. Njoku has run 18 routes to Bryant’s 16 over the last two weeks so they have been used nearly 50/50. Bryant seems more likely to fill the Hooper role but will be to a lesser extent of the routes and targets that Hooper was seeing. The $500 in savings compared to Njoku makes the decision easier in the favor of Bryant as well.
The Browns rank Top 5 in TE usage with 32% of their team targets going to TE. They have run the league’s third-highest rate of 12 personnel. Both should get their chances. Jarvis Landry will be playing less than 100% (broken rib) which boosts the floor for both Njoku and Bryant.
Low Priced Wide Receivers
A.J. Green ($4,300) was the glaring regression candidate through the first few weeks. The production finally came to fruition where he hit closer to his 18.1 XFP with 17.6 FPTS. In this same matchup earlier in the season he saw 13 targets but fell way short of his 24.8 XFP. He is WR24 on the season in XFP with 13.2 XFP per game. I see him being able to build off that last week’s performance. Over the past 4 games, he has lined up as the LWR on 60.6% of his snaps. This gives him the preferred matchup against Terrance Mitchell who has been the most targeted CB on the Browns (41) and has given up the most yards (298). With Joe Mixon ruled Out this week, they should rely on their passing game against a Browns defense that is already a pass funnel.
Demarcus Robinson ($3,400, DK: +589) looks to have won the Sammy Watkins role over Mecole Hardman. He ran a route on 34 of Patrick Mahomes’ 34 dropbacks. If my math checks out that is 100% of the dropbacks. On the flip side, Hardman only ran 13 routes. The Chiefs had an above-average game rushing with Clyde Edwards-Helaire running for 161 yards. The Broncos have been stingy against the run allowing 60.2 rushing yards/game and just a 32% success rate to RBs. WR2s have been able to do damage against them as well. They are allowing the 5th most Schedule Adjusted FPTS/game to WR2s.
