Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 6:
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Projections (DK: 3.37X)
Henry is by no means cheap, but he is the top RB value on DraftKings according to our projections (3.37X), and the DFS SuperModel has him mispriced by nearly $1,500.
Among RBs, Henry ranks 4th in XFP per game (21.6), 3rd in XTD per game (1.3), and 1st in carries per game (25.3). He gets a top matchup, favored by 3.5-points, against Houston’s run funnel defense. Houston ranks 2nd-worst in rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (21.3) and 5th-worst in YPC allowed (5.19). Henry, meanwhile, averages 23.0 FPG over his last 11 games, finishing as a top-5 RB in 7 of those weeks.
However, the big concern with Henry, is that he’s a true afterthought in the passing game, which means he’ll always be highly-volatile and prone to getting scripted out of games. For this reason – I might consider fading him for tournaments if he winds up being one of the highest-owned players of the slate (currently projected at 27%), even though I do trust he’s one of the best values of the week.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Projections (DK: 2.99X / FD: 2.75X)
Following Dalvin Cook’s injury, Mattison (34 snaps) dramatically out-snapped Mike Boone (4) and Ameer Abdullah (1) in Week 5, earning 18 of 20 carries and running 14 of 17 routes (one target). He finished the day with 136 yards on 23 touches. Through 5 weeks, Cook ranked 6th in XFP market share (24.9), averaging 18.4 carries and 3.2 targets per game – but this seems like one of those situations where Mattison’s workload this week could be even better than the workload Cook was getting. And with that volume, Mattison should do quite a bit of damage – Minnesota has the highest implied point total of the slate (29.0), favored by 4.0-points against a Falcons team that is giving up the 7th-most FPG to opposing RBs. According to the SuperModel, he’s the top overall value on FanDuel (+1,212) and ranks 3rd-best on DraftKings (+1,191).
But then again, like with Henry, maybe there’s credence to fading him for tournaments if he’s likely to be highly owned (currently at 21%). Atlanta is one of the biggest pass funnel defenses in the league, and that’s especially true for RBs. Atlanta is actually giving up the 7th-fewest rushing FPG to opposing RBs (10.0), while ranking 10th-best in YPC allowed (3.82). They’re just giving up – by far – the most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (19.7), which balances that out. But Mattison has just 18 catches in his career, to 144 rushing attempts.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Projections (DK: 3.22X / FD: 2.83X)
Over the past two weeks (with Tarik Cohen out), Montgomery is averaging just 16.2 XFP per game – likely a function of those games coming against two of the top-5 toughest defenses for a RB – but he has seen 100% of the backfield’s XFP along with 83% of the team’s snaps. This week’s matchup, however, couldn’t be better. After giving up the most FPG to opposing RBs last year (30.1), Carolina is again giving up the most FPG to opposing RBs this year (36.4). Adjusting for strength of schedule, Carolina is allowing opposing RBs to out-score their season-long average by a league-high 13.9 FPG (nearly double the next-closest team). So, basically, if you want to do the math, it’s something along the lines of – Chicago’s backfield is averaging 16.8 FPG, and Montgomery is now getting 100% of that, so, 16.8 + 13.9 = 30.7 fantasy points. And believe it or not, Carolina is now probably even worse than however bad they’ve been, as starting defensive linemen Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Kawann Short are all questionable for this week’s game. Montgomery is rightfully one of the best values of the slate on both sites.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
Model (DK: +874)
Through two games, Golladay is averaging 7.5 targets and 17.0 FPG. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but Matthew Stafford threw just 31 times in both games, and keep in mind, he was limited in both games, and is now back to practicing in full off of the bye. This week, he’ll get a Jaguars defense that is giving up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+4.3), and is egregiously mispriced as just the 15th-highest-priced WR of the slate on DraftKings.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
Model (DK: +777 / FD: +617)
Brown bounced back in a big way after a multi-week absence, catching 7 of 9 targets for 82 yards and a score against a Bills defense that came into last week allowing the fewest FPG to opposing outside WRs. He gets another tough matchup this week – shadow coverage against Bradley Roby, who has performed well outside of allowing a 7-96-1 line to Adam Thielen in Week 4 – but he’s still one of the best values of the week. DraftKings has him priced as just the No. 21 WR of the slate ($5,600).
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
Model (DK: +326)
Although our projections think Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are in the running at a similar price-tag, the SuperModel thinks Tannehill is far-and-away the best value QB this week, and it’s hard to argue against him. We just gushed over Henry’s matchup against Houston on the ground, but the Texans are also rank 3rd-worst in opposing passer rating (108.8). Though granted, they rank well above average in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs. Still, Tannehill has long been a little too slept on in fantasy circles – over the past two seasons, Tannehill leads all QBs in passer rating (115.4), ranks 2nd in PFF Grade (92.5), ranks 2nd in fantasy points per dropback, and ranks 5th in fantasy points per start (22.4), less than 1.0 FPG away from 2nd place. And yet, he’s just the 12th-highest-priced QB of the slate on DraftKings, tied with Philip Rivers.
Min. Price Tight End
On DraftKings, there’s always credence to out-right punting the TE position, and especially this year with the position being the absolute wasteland it is. Just note, you’re not paying down at the position to get some great value, you’re paying down to pay up elsewhere, at the other more important positions that offer more upside.
If paying down, your best option is Irv Smith Jr. ($2,500), who hit season-highs in route share (74%) and targets (5) last week, catching 4 for 64 yards. Smith’s Week 6 matchup also couldn’t be any better – Atlanta is giving up a league-high +11.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs. Greg Olsen scored 12.4 fantasy points on 4 targets against them in Week 1. Dalton Schultz scored 23.8 on 10 targets in Week 2. Jimmy Graham scored 24.0 on 10 targets in Week 3. Robert Tonyan scored 33.8 on 6 targets in Week 4. And then Ian Thomas flopped, seeing just one target last week. Smith very well could exit this week’s game with zero fantasy points, as he did in Weeks 3 and 4, but at this price-tag, he still may be one of the best plays at the position.
Min. Priced Wide Receivers
DFS players might get scared off of the cheap WR punts after Olamide Zaccheaus flopped last week, but I do like what I’m seeing at the bottom of the barrel this week.
Jeff Smith is only $3,000 on DraftKings, and, so long as Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims sit out again this week, he’s easily the best XFP-related value on the slate. Over the last two weeks, Smith averages 10.2 FPG, 17.7 XFP per game, 10.0 targets per game, 139.0 air yards per game, 1.5 end zone targets per game, and 3.0 deep targets per game. For perspective, those numbers rank 49th, 11th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and 4th. He ranks 75th in pricing.
Damiere Byrd is just $3,500, but he’s seen 9, 3, and 10 targets over his last three games (20.1% target share), hitting 70-plus yards in two of those games. He has a cushy matchup, up against a Denver pass funnel defense that is allowing the 4th-most FPG to outside WRs. (Julian Edelman, by the way, is badly banged up with a knee injury, and is playing like it. He’s averaging just 29.0 YPG since first popping up on the injury report in Week 3.)
You can also look at Darnell Mooney (5, 9, and 5 targets over his last three games) at $3,000 or Olamide Zaccheaus (6, 9, and 4 targets over his last three games) at $3,200 (if Julio Jones sits out again), but I don’t know that I’d prioritize them over the other two.
