Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 3:
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Projections (DK: 3.3X)
Through two weeks Murray leads all QBs in rushing yards (158) and ranks 4th in FPG (30.2). After back-to-back neutral-at-best matchups, he now gets a Detroit defense that ranks bottom-6 in passing fantasy points per pass attempt for the second-straight season. In spite of their underwhelming talent at corner, Detroit also plays man defense at the highest rate in the NFL (77%). What does that mean? In man defense, DBs are running with their backs turned to the QB, allowing for a QB like Murray to rack up easy yardage on the ground. After his hot start, in an easy matchup, with a sky-high floor thanks to his mobility, he’s glaringly your top cash-game QB on DraftKings this week.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
Model (FD: +582)
The hope for Cam Newton-drafters was good rushing volume and enough competency as a passer to keep him starting each week, but it appears we've gotten a great deal more than that. And maybe even something close to Newton's elite 2016 season. Through two games, Newton ranks 8th in passing yards (552), 2nd in rushing yards (122), and 3rd in FPG (30.7). He rushed 15 times in Week 1 (most since 2014) and then passed for 397 yards in Week 2 (most since 2011). In this neutral at-worst matchup against Las Vegas, mispriced by about $600, he’s your top cash-game QB on FanDuel this week.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Projections (DK: 3.5X / FD: 2.8X)
Although maybe still not at 100%, Sanders saw terrific usage in his Week 2 debut, playing on 77% of the snaps, receiving 20 carries and 7 targets. For perspective, that was worth 22.7 XFP, which ranked 4th-most among RBs on the week. With this sort of every-down usage that included heavy involvement as both a runner and a receiver, Sanders is a true bell cow, immune to gamescript. But that’s not totally relevant this week, favored by 6.5, up against a Bengals defense that is surrendering the 2nd-most rushing FPG to opposing RBs (36.8), after giving up the 7th-most last year (15.6). Given Carson Wentz’s dreadful start to the season, expect Philadelphia to lean heavily on Sanders and attack Cincinnati’s weakness against the run. On both sites, Sanders is a borderline lock-button play this week.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Model (DK: +1003 / FD: +1313)
Once again, Taylor is easily one of the most mispriced players of the slate on FanDuel, ranking 5th in our projections, but just 15th in salary. After splitting snaps with Nyheim Hines in Week 1, Taylor saw elite usage in Week 2, earning 26 carries and 2 targets on 66% of the snaps. Taylor is a generational prospect, who averaged 23.6 touches per game at Wisconsin, so that sort of workload shouldn’t be too surprising. What was surprising was that he only scored 19.0 fantasy points. Favored by 9.5-points, with the 5th-highest implied point total of the week (27.25), and against a Jets defense that ranks 5th-worst in YPC allowed (5.00) and 7th-worst in FPG allowed to RBs (31.7), expect similar usage but an even better outcome this week.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Model (DK: +471 / FD: +594)
Drake’s usage has been good, but not perfect. Drake has played on 66% of the snaps, averaging 18.0 carries and 2.0 targets per game. Last year, Arizona’s RB1 played on 77% of the snaps, averaging 14.6 carries and 5.4 targets per game. Chase Edmonds has dipped into his passing down work, out-targeting Drake 9 to 4 on just 9 fewer routes. And Kyler Murray has vultured some of the red zone work – Drake has handled just 5 of the team’s 9 rushing attempts inside the 20. But those concerns don’t matter as much when Drake is just $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, and in a near-perfect matchup. Arizona is favored by 6.5 points against a Detroit defense that ranks worst in YPC allowed (6.92) and 3rd-worst in rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (23.7).
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
Model (DK: +1125 / FD: +1133)
Robinson is seeing terrific volume – he ranks 12th in XFP per game (16.0), 8th in air yards per game (117.0), and 11th in targets per game (9.0), he’s just not doing a lot with it. Why? Poor QB play. But that shouldn’t be as much of a concern this week. Atlanta ranks 2nd-worst in passing yards allowed per game (386.0) and 2nd-worst in passer rating allowed (125.5). Robinson also gets a top-flight CB matchup against Isaiah Oliver, as Wes Huber outlined here. At his borderline-insulting Week 3 salary ($6,200 / $6,900), he’s a potential must-play on both sites.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Model (DK: +874 / FD: +617)
Hopkins isn’t cheap, but he is a top value, mispriced by about $700 on both sites. Hopkins ranks 2nd in target share (30%), and on the team that’s averaging the 2nd-most plays per game (75.5), that comes out to… whew… 12.5 targets per game. He’s been successful too, averaging 25.0 FPG on that good volume (19.3 XFP). Unlike most elite WR1s, Hopkins isn’t lining up all over the field to escape top CBs and to be put into more advantageous matchups, he mostly just sticks to his side of the field (80% of his snaps lined to Murray’s left). That means he’ll spend nearly all game against Round 5 sophomore Amani Oruwariye. Over the past two seasons, Oruwariye ranks bottom-20 of 120-plus CBs in yards allowed per coverage snap. And, as Wes Huber pointed out, Detroit predominantly runs Cover-1, which Hopkins historically dominates.
Dallas Wide Receivers
Once again, Dallas’ WRs are egregiously mispriced. Per the DFS SuperModel, Amari Cooper is mispriced by about $850 on DraftKings, ranking 5th among WRs. On FanDuel, CeeDee Lamb is mispriced by about $900, who is only just ahead of Amari Cooper (~$850) and Michael Gallup (~$700), with all 3 WRs ranking in the top-7. In a game with the highest over/under of the week (55.5, by +2.5), it’s possible all three WRs return value. Or for two to go nuclear. The tougher question is, who don’t you want. Seattle ranks top-5 against right WRs, bottom-6 against left WRs, and bottom-5 against slot WRs. That means Gallup (56% left) and Lamb (91% slot) have the best matchups, while Cooper has the tougher draw (47% right). That said, Prescott was content to pepper Cooper with targets in Week 1, even though the majority of those came against Jalen Ramsey.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
Model (DK: +912 / FD: +794)
McLaurin came out of back-to-back brutal CB matchups – Darius Slay in Week 1 and then Patrick Peterson in Week 2 – with 12 catches on 17 targets for 186 yards and a score, making him the WR14 through two weeks. He gets another difficult matchup this week – the Browns rank top-10 in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs for the second-straight season. However, more than making up for that, is the fact that McLaurin is just the 24th-most expensive WR on DraftKings. He’s one of the better values of the week, despite the tough matchup.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants
Projections (DK: 3.0X)
Reeling from injuries (Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard), the Giants’ offense looks like a potential dumpster fire. But then again, the same can be said for San Francisco’s defense (Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford). As 4.5-point underdogs, and, again, without Barkley, Daniel Jones will likely have little choice but to throw often, and throw often to Slayton. Without Sherman, the 49ers are most exploitable on the outside, while Evan Engram has a bottom-3 matchup, as outlined here. Slayton smashed in a tough matchup in Week 1 (28.2 fantasy points) but flopped in an even more difficult one in Week 2 (6.3). In a much softer draw this week, as one of the better (projected) target-per-dollar plays of the week, don’t overlook him on DraftKings.
K.J. Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
Model (DK: +866 / FD: +667)
Once Jeff Driskel took over for Drew Lock, Hamler saw a team-high 7 targets (along with 1 carry), representing a 21% target share. As I’ve talked about before, don’t sleep on the #BackupConnection. Driskel probably has an already established-rapport with Hamler (after spending nearly every practice together in the second-string offense) that he doesn’t have with Noah Fant or Jerry Jeudy. At just $3,000 on DraftKings, he’s easily your best punt option at the position.
