For fantasy purposes, it’s better to have players in games that feature teams that play fast and run a lot of plays. Why? Faster paced offenses drain less clock in between plays which gives the game more overall play volume. And more play volume = more opportunities.
In this weekly column, I’ll highlight a few games that project for more pace and plays and some spots that could underwhelm.
Fast-paced games
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
This is an easy call. Dallas (23.6 seconds in between plays) and Arizona (26.5) are first and second in pace and both teams are top-9 in plays per game. However, one of the biggest questions of this week is what the Cowboys are going to do offensively. Will they remain ultra pass-heavy and continue to play fast with Andy Dalton under center or will they slow down and rely more on Ezekiel Elliott and the run game? Regardless, Dallas’ banged-up defense is going to continue hemorrhage points and will be down another starter this week with DT Trysten Hill (ACL) out for the season. This over/under has continued to creep up all week and is now at 55 points.
Titans vs. Texans
The Titans and Texans are both top-9 in pace, so if this game stays tight as the spread suggests — Tennessee is favored by 3.5 points — we should expect a high-volume shootout here. Houston’s run game is struggling badly and they know it. They’re not even trying to establish a run game and instead are letting Deshaun Watson throw it around. Over their first five games, Houston is 60% pass-heavy on first and second downs regardless of the game-script (fourth-highest), 64% pass-heavy when leading (fourth-highest), and 68% pass-heavy when trailing (12th-highest). Vegas is all over this game, too, as the over/under is set at a lofty 53 points.
Steelers vs. Browns
Even though the Browns are extremely run-heavy, they’re quietly playing fast and pushing the pace on offense. Cleveland ranks eighth in pace and 10th in plays per game while Pittsburgh isn’t too far behind (16th in pace and eighth in plays per game). What should also help this game shootout is both teams are playing exceptional run defense and it should hopefully result in Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger dropping back a few extra times to pass. The Steelers are No. 1 in FootballOutsiders’ run defense metrics and are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (43.3) while the Browns are only giving up the fourth-fewest YPG on the ground (48.6).
Slow-paced games
Bears vs. Panthers
Chicago’s approach on offense is working from their perspective — the Bears are 4-1 and relying on their defense to keep them in games — but the results haven’t been exactly great for fantasy. The Bears are 28th in pace because HC Matt Nagy knows he has to slow down and try to drain the clock when they have the ball. On the other side, Carolina’s offense isn’t struggling, but they are also playing pretty slow. The Panthers rank just 22nd in pace and a pedestrian 19th in plays per game. I’m expecting Chicago to come out and try to pound the ball with David Montgomery against this Panthers run defense that is bottom-5 in fantasy points allowed per carry and DVOA. Plus, Carolina’s front-seven is going to be even more short-handed this week with DT Kawaan Short (shoulder) on IR and DE Brian Burns (concussion) in the league’s protocol.
Lions vs. Jaguars
We have a bunch of games to target in fantasy this week, but this is not one of them. The Lions are just absolutely clueless on offense and are insistent that they need to establish 35-year-old Adrian Peterson early and often despite having Matthew Stafford and a talented trio of pass catchers. Detroit has gone 48% run-heavy on first and second downs when the game is within a score and it has resulted in a blazing 3.9 yards per carry. HC Matt Patricia and OC Darrell Bevell just don’t get it and that’s why their team is already out of the hunt for the NFC North. While the Lions are 15th in pace and 27th in plays per game, the Jaguars are the slowest moving offense in the league and are just 21st in plays per game. The over/under is set at a lofty 54 points here, but that’s only because both of these defenses are terrible. There is a real chance this game doesn’t meet expectations because both offenses play so slow.
