We’ve made it to December and the fantasy playoffs are only a week away. Hopefully your teams have survived this chaotic season and are well positioned for a deep run. I’m still tilting Will Fuller’s suspension that came out of nowhere, but at least we got his best game of the season right before the news dropped. Alas…
These are all the stats you need to know ahead of the pivotal Week 13:
Arizona Cardinals
Last week marked the first time Kyler Murray failed to finish as a top-10 scorer among quarterbacks. Murray had 10-straight top-10 finishes to start the season.
Is Murray’s shoulder injury worse than we know? Over the last two weeks, Murray has just 10 carries for 46 yards.
In their nine previous games, Murray averaged 9.7 carries and 67.1 yards per contest.
Christian Kirk has seen a target share greater than 20% once all year. It was back in Week 9 vs. Miami — when he posted 5/123/1.
Atlanta Falcons
In the four games Julio Jones has missed over the last two seasons, Calvin Ridley has gone for 8/91, 5/110, 8/136, and 6/50/1.
Without Todd Gurley (knee), Brian Hill and Ito Smith split snaps 39 to 28 and touches 13 to 16 (in favor of Smith).
However, because the game was a blowout, the workload split looked closer than it actually was. Hill didn’t see a single carry in the fourth quarter.
Baltimore Ravens (Play on Wednesday)
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen only attempted 24 passes this past week, his second-lowest total of the season.
Allen’s splits with / without John Brown on the field are pretty damning. In the eight games Brown has played, Allen averages 27.3 fantasy points per game. Without Brown? Allen dips to 17.7 FPG.
Digging a little deeper, Allen is opting for much more shallow throws when Brown isn’t on the field to stretch the defense deep. Allen’s average depth of target has dipped to 6.8 yards when Brown is inactive, which would rank 33rd of 39 qualified QBs.
When Brown plays, Allen’s aDOT is 8.6 yards (ranks 14th-of-39)
Carolina Panthers
Over his last seven games, Mike Davis is averaging 3.6 yards per carry and 0.85 receiving yards per route run.
Christian McCaffrey averages 4.9 yards per carry and 1.74 yards per route run over the last two years.
Curtis Samuel has cleared 70 yards or scored a touchdown in five of his last 6 games.
Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky has targeted Allen Robinson 38 times on 132 attempts this season (29% share).
A-Rob is averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game in Trubisky’s four starts — which would make him the WR5 on the season over Adam Thielen (18.1).
A-Rob’s next four games: vs. Lions (9th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs), vs. Texans (11th-most; no Bradley Roby), vs. Vikings (3rd-most), and vs. Jaguars (8th-most).
David Montgomery has played on 80% of Bears’ snaps in six of 7 games without Tarik Cohen.
Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Allen’s target distribution in his first start: Tyler Boyd (6), Tee Higgins (5), Drew Sample (5), A.J. Green (3), and Gio Bernard (3).
The Bengals ran just 45 plays with Allen in his first start. Only the Broncos ran fewer plays this past week (43).
With Joe Burrow healthy, the Bengals averaged a league-high 76.2 plays per game.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb is averaging 6.25 yards per carry, which would be third-most in a single-season since the merger. Mercury Morris (6.40) and Jamaal Charles (6.38) are No. 1 and No. 2.
Chubb is putting up 123.2 yards per game over his last five full games.
The Browns have gone 56% run-heavy in Chubb’s six full games (Week 1-3; Week 10-12), which is the highest rate in the league.
Amazingly, the Browns are 64% run-heavy on early downs (1st and 2nd) when Chubb is healthy. That is also the highest rate in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys
Amari Cooper’s stat lines in Andy Dalton’s starts: 7/79/1, 7/80, 6/81, and 6/112/1.
Dalton and Cooper have connected on 26 of 33 targets (79%).
Dalton and CeeDee Lamb have only connected on 18 of 32 targets (56%).
Ezekiel Elliott is averaging just 3.7 targets per game without Dak Prescott under center.
Zeke saw 6.4 targets/game with Prescott in Week 1-5.
Denver Broncos
- The Broncos ran just 43 plays (lowest) and averaged 2.6 yards per play (fewest) in Week 12.
Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson has now cleared 50 yards or scored in 10-of-11 games this season.
Matthew Stafford with Kenny Golladay in the lineup: 66% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 5.9% touchdown rate, 1.7% interception rate, and 0.13 expected points per dropback.
Stafford without Golladay: 63% completion rate, 7.4 YPA, 4.4% TD rate, 2.5% INT rate, and 0.02 EPA/dropback.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones put up 28.3 fantasy points per game when Davante Adams left Week 2 early and missed Week 3-4.
When Adams has played his usual snaps, Jones averages just 13.9 FPG in his six other games.
Houston Texans
In his career, Deshaun Watson has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, 281.3 yards per game, and a 7% touchdown rate when Will Fuller is in the lineup.
Without Fuller? Watson’s YPA dips to 7.3, he puts up just 227.1 YPG, and a 4% TD rate.
Indianapolis Colts
The good news? Michael Pittman saw 9 targets this past week.
The bad news? He dropped 3 passes.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over his last five games, James Robinson leads all running backs in snap rate (83%) and is averaging 24.4 touches per game.
Robinson has finished as a RB2 (top-24) scorer in nine of his last 10 games and as a RB1 (top-12) six times in this span.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over the last four weeks, the Chiefs have gone 73% pass-heavy.
Patrick Mahomes is averaging 45.3 attempts and 399.5 yards per game in this span.
Tyreek Hill’s stat lines over the last four weeks: 4/98/2, 9/113/2, 11/102/1, and 13/269/3.
Hill’s 57.9 PPR points against Tampa Bay were the sixth-most all-time by a wide receiver.
Las Vegas Raiders
Travis Kelce is the TE1 by a whopping 65.2 point margin over TE2 Darren Waller.
Josh Jacobs is the most game script-sensitive running back in football. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 21.1 fantasy points and 114.2 scrimmage yards per game in wins.
In losses? Jacobs averages just 9.8 fantasy points and 75.1 yards per game.
15 of Jacobs’ career rushing TDs have come in Raiders’ wins.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler played on 73% of Chargers snaps, led all RBs in routes run (37), and led all players in targets (16) in his return in Week 12.
In three starts with Justin Herbert, Ekeler has tallied 26 receptions and 224 yards.
In eight career starts without Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has seen 18, 24, 16, 23, 20, 20, 23, and 25 touches.
Without Gordon, Ekeler averages 24.1 fantasy points per game. For reference, Dalvin Cook is averaging 25.1 FPG this season.
Los Angeles Rams
- Rams RB carries over the last four weeks: Darrell Henderson (33), Cam Akers (33), and Malcolm Brown (22).
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick has finished as a QB1 (top-12) in five of his 7 starts this season.
Fitzpatrick is averaging 18.9 FPG in these 7 starts.
DeVante Parker is averaging 5.3 receptions and 69 yards per game in Fitzpatrick’s starts.
Without Fitzmagic, Parker is averaging 3.8 receptions and 39.8 yards per game.
Minnesota Vikings
Since being made a full-time player in Week 3, Justin Jefferson is averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game.
This would rank as the third-best rookie season ever behind only Odell Beckham (26.4 FPG in 2014) and Randy Moss (19.2 FPG in 1998).
Jefferson is averaging 94.2 yards per game since Week 3, which would rank second-best all-time behind Beckham (108.8).
New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers’ weekly target shares over the last six weeks: 24% > 40% > 40% > 39% > 8% > 33%.
Damien Harris played on 64% of Patriots snaps this past week, which was a season-high.
New Orleans Saints
Over the Saints last two games, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray have split snaps right down the middle (63 to 63) while Murray has out-carried Kamara (31 to 24).
Kamara has seen just three targets on Taysom’s 39 attempts over the last two weeks, which works out to be a pitiful 8% target share.
With Drew Brees under center in Week 1-9, Kamara averaged 9 targets per game for a 25% share.
The Saints have gone 65% run-heavy over the last two weeks, which is the highest rate in the league in this span.
New York Giants
Evan Engram has seen 9 or more targets in four of his last 5 games.
Since Devonta Freeman went down in Week 7, Wayne Gallman is the RB7 in fantasy points per game (16.3).
New York Jets
In his first four games of the year, Jamison Crowder averaged 11.5 targets per game.
Over his last three games, Crowder has 11 targets. Total.
Denzel Mims has 24 targets over the last three weeks while Breshad Perriman has 19.
Philadelphia Eagles
Even though Carson Wentz is broken, HC Doug Pederson decided it was a good idea to go 78% pass-heavy against Seattle.
Miles Sanders got just 6 carries in Week 12, a season-low.
Wentz has been under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks over his last six games, which is the second-highest rate in the league per PFF.
Hilariously, Alshon Jeffery and Travis Fulgham split snaps (36) in Week 12.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Play on Wednesday)
San Francisco 49ers
- 49ers RB snap rates this past week: Raheem Mostert (40%), Jeff Wilson (35%), and Jerick McKinnon (25%).
Seattle Seahawks
In his first seven games, Russell Wilson’s touchdown rate is 10.1%.
Over his last four games, Wilson’s TD rate is 3.6%.
In his first game since Week 7, Chris Carson played on 37% of the team’s snaps and got just 10 touches. Carlos Hyde played on 61% and got 17 touches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over their last four games, Ronald Jones has out-carried Leonard Fournette by a massive 45 to 19 margin.
14 of Fournette’s last 19 carries have gained three or fewer yards.
Tom Brady’s target distribution since the team added Antonio Brown four weeks ago: Mike Evans (35), Chris Godwin (31), Brown (29), and Rob Gronkowski (22).
Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown has finished as a WR1 (top-12) in eight of Ryan Tannehill’s 19 starts, including four times in his last eight games.
Derrick Henry’s schedule during the fantasy playoffs in Week 14-16: Jaguars (5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs), Lions (most), and Packers (3rd-most).
After a slow-ish start in his first four games (3.7 YPC; 94.0 YPG), Henry has exploded for 5.7 YPC and 125.9 YPG over his last seven games.
Washington
Antonio Gibson has finished as a RB1 (top-12) in five-straight games.
Gibson is the RB2 in fantasy points per game (21.8) in this span behind only Dalvin Cook (28.0).
Gibson has actually run more routes than JD McKissic (30 to 29) over the last two weeks.
Over their previous five games, McKissic out-snapped Gibson 131 to 71.
