Dealing with four teams on a bye is easy enough. Week 7 schedules six teams for a week of rest. Devoting our efforts toward rostering the highest-owned individuals in Cash/Single-Entry (SE) will be of the utmost importance, and differentiating our lineups in GPPs will be more difficult. Digging into every matchup on the slate to reduce the number of names on our list, the reduced number of teams does nothing to devalue the benefits of concentrating the focus of our DFS investment.
You’ll see a number of coverage metrics throughout this series. The following chart provides the full names for the acronyms and the average numbers for each position group:
If you’d like to learn more about/refresh yourself with each of the defensive coverage shells mentioned throughout this series and other relevant schematic details, utilize the following resources:
Fantasy Shells: Coverage Glossary
Fantasy Shells: Cover 1
Fantasy Shells: Cover 2
Fantasy Shells: Cover 3
Fantasy Shells: Cover 4
ATS Picks
*18-20 (47%); 4-3 in Week 6
Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Washington Football Team (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. New York Jets
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.0) at Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Game Totals
*14-15 (48%); 3-5 in Week 6
Atlanta Dolphins at Miami Dolphins (Over 47.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Over 47.0)
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (Over 43.0)
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (Under 49.5)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 47.0)
New Orleans at Seattle Seahawks (Under 43.0)
Moneyline
*23-7 (77%); 8-3 in Week 6
Denver Broncos (+145) at Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers (-450) vs. Washington Football Team
New England Patriots (-320) vs. New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens (-275) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans (+200) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons (-140) at Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams (-900) vs. Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles (+150) at Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (-1500) vs. Houston Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-720) vs. Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers (-210) vs. Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans (-235) at Seattle Seahawks
Matchups to Target
Deebo Samuel, SF ($7.3K DK | $8.0K FD) vs. Colts’ Cover 2 | 3
Surrendering the third-most FPG to receivers stationed on the perimeter (21.2), Indianapolis is allowing the 12th-most FPG to wideouts overall (39.9). Catering to the most explosive of WRs, those allowances are fueled by permitting the highest WR TD rate (1.67/game) and the eighth-most red zone touches/game (1.83). The 49ers’ staff pays particular attention to shifting Deebo Samuel all across the formation. The staff wants to fool the defense into thinking the offense is running the exact same play over-and-over when, in actuality, a particular formation can mask numerous plays from that exact setup. With Samuel’s alignment numbers nearly split in three between the slot, outside left, and outside right, corners who spend film/analytical time looking for tells are out of luck.
Samuel has ranked first or second in YAC/reception dating back to the beginning of last season. He is essentially a RB with the quickness, route running, and hands of a wideout. Living in the nightmares of opposing corners fearing his next move will hit color, Samuel is provided with liberties other WRs only dream about. With those factors in mind, the reasoning behind Samuel’s 32% target share (fourth-highest) and 9.6 targets/game (eighth) comes into focus. Deebo creates his own offense. He isn’t reliant on perfect pass placement since he can generate the second-highest YPRR (3.20) using the 36th-most air yards/game (78.6). And, just like RBs, Samuel is nearly coverage proof since he’s strong enough to separate from man-to-man, and makes his living on the underneath stuff zone schemes innately surrender.
Final notes on Indianapolis
The window of opportunity for QBs to attack the San Francisco defense may be closing. The ‘9ers currently rank ninth with 21.2 FPG surrendered to QBs. But that number falls to 17th-most over the last four games (18.4) and even further down to 26th over the last two (13.7). With the way Carson Wentz ($5.4K/$6.7K) has been playing, he may still be up to the challenge. I’m not as confident in Jonathan Taylor ($7.1K/$8.8K) extending his three-game hot streak that’s seen him average 30.0 FPG. Over their last four games, San Francisco has limited opposing RBs to the fifth-fewest FPG (19.2). For the time being, at least, it seems we no longer need to be concerned with Nyheim Hines ($4.2K/$5.3K) siphoning off touches. And Marlon Mack ($4.0K/$4.9K) is likely rostered by another team before the trade deadline. The other concern with JT exposure is his pricing soaring 13% from Week 4 to now costing RB5/4 dollars.
It almost seemed as though T.Y. Hilton ($4.9K/$6.2K) didn’t miss a beat in his first game action of the season. That is, until he tweaked his quad. The immediate results are nice, but I’m off Hilton due to the possibility that he’ll strain more of that soft tissue following the extended down time. If Hilton misses Week 7, Michael Pittman Jr. ($5.1K/$6.4K) will be someone of interest as long as the weather stays under control. The 49ers have been just a tad vulnerable to outside wideouts. Zach Pascal ($4.3K/$5.2K) is Zach Pascal whether he’s outside or in the slot. As big of a man-crush as I have on Mo Alie-Cox ($3.1K/$5.4K), San Francisco is not the defense you want your TE to face.
Final notes on San Francisco
As odd as it might seem, I actually like Jimmy Garoppolo ($5.7K/$7.2K) to do well in this spot. The biggest obstacle for Jimmy G will be the current forecast for heavy rain. If the rain proves inferior to the expectation, the Colts’ fifth-highest rate of Cover 3 will feed Garoppolo’s seventh-highest FP/Db at 0.41. Since it seems JaMycal Hasty ($4.3K/$5.0K) will not be ready in time for Week 7, Elijah Mitchell ($5.1K/$5.8K) should receive another full workload. And he’s someone that will have very low ownership due to his poor output with Trey Lance under center.
Perhaps the bye week provided Brandon Aiyuk ($4.3K/$5.7K) with enough time to get his game under control. Without Lance, Mohamed Sanu’s ($3.2K/$4.8K) minute upside evaporates. Indy is handing TEs the seventh-most FPG overall (17.1), third-most over the last four (21.0). If the weather’s calm, Ross Dwelley ($3.0K/$5.0K) would provide another intriguing TE punt.
Matchups to Target
Deonte Harris, NO ($4.3K DK | $5.5K FD) vs. Seahawks’ Cover 3
With the Saints starving for WR production, Deonte Harris has been on the verge of utility at various points this season. I am of the mind that his bum hamstring will not stand in the way of him taking the field this week. We definitely don’t have a sample size large enough to get carried away, but Harris would rank fourth-overall with 0.65 FP/Rt against Cover 3 if he qualified. The Seahawks, as can always be expected, are rocking the second-highest rate of Cover 3.
Final notes on New Orleans
I’m very picky with my Jameis Winston ($5.9K/$7.5K) deployment. If the Cover 2 and Cover 6 rates aren’t high enough, it’s an easy fade. They aren’t, he’s an easy fade. As good as Alvin Kamara ($8.9K/$9.2K) looks in this spot, it’s going to be a mighty challenge talking myself down from King Henry against the Chiefs. Another week, another opportunity to diss Marquez Callaway ($5.2K/$5.8K) for teasing us during the preseason. He continues to be dead to me. Is Kenny Stills ($3.1K/Not Listed) still being featured by the Saints? Times are tough in the Crescent City. Adam Trautman ($3.0K/$4.3K) has taken over the role. He’s just doing nothing deserving of our attention.
Final notes on Seattle
The times are also tough in the Emerald City. It’s unfair to expect anything within the same galaxy as Russell Wilson from Geno Smith ($5.1K/$6.8K). Geno is a backup. You put him in the game while your starter has his knuckle re-taped. You do not ask him to lead your offense.
Chris Collins is down, Alex Collins ($5.3K/$6.5K) isn’t that far behind. DeeJay Dallas ($4.3K/$5.1K) would be the next man up. He’s the receiving compliment to Collins, so Dallas would maintain a bit of upside against a fierce New Orleans run defense. If Collins suits up, both he and Dallas are eliminated from consideration.
Travis Homer ($4.0K/$5.2K) is basically a clone of Dallas. But he’ll need a Dallas injury to become a serious consideration. We were provided with a perfect example against an equally stout defense of the expectations from DK Metcalf ($6.8K/$7.4K) and Tyler Lockett ($6.2K/$6.6K) in the Wilson-less offense. A good amount of the yardage is still in play, but the TD upside is nearly dissipated. And that leaves next to nothing for Freddie Swain ($3.2K/$5.0K), Gerald Everett ($3.0K/$4.9K), and Will Dissly ($2.8K/$4.8K) to fight over.
