Indianapolis Colts (9-7, 10-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14, 4-12), 1 p.m.
Brolley’s Colts Stats and Trends
The Colts beat the Jaguars 23-17 as 10.5-point home favorites in a game totaled at 48 points back in mid-November.
Indy has covered in six straight road games.
The Colts have played under the total in four straight games.
It’s a long shot but Jonathan Taylor needs 266 rushing yards to reach 2000 yards. JT couldn’t pick a better opponent to potentially reach 2K rushing yards against than the Jaguars. He hung 21/116/1 rushing (5.5 YPC) against Jacksonville back in Week 10, and the Jaguars have allowed a combined 454 rushing yards in the last two games against the Jets and Patriots.
Carson Wentz returned from the COVID list in Week 17 and he threw for just 148 yards on 27 attempts (5.5 YPA) in a loss to the Raiders as touchdown favorites. Most of his production came on a fluky, 45-yard tipped touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton — he would’ve averaged 4.0 YPA otherwise. He’s now thrown for multiple TDs just twice in his last seven games after doing it in six straight games in Weeks 4-9. Wentz posted just 7.1 FP against the Jaguars back in Week 10 with 180 scoreless yards while averaging 5.3 YPA.
Michael Pittman has 6+ catches in three of his last four games after catching all six of his targets for 47 yards against the Raiders last week. Pittman caught all five of his targets for 71 yards against the Jaguars in mid-November, and Jacksonville just allowed three different Patriots’ WRs to reach 14+ FP last week.
Brolley’s Jaguars Stats and Trends
The Jaguars enter the final week of the season riding an eight-game losing streak and a seven-game ATS losing skid after the Patriots drubbed them 50-10 last week.
The Jaguars are 11-5 toward unders this season.
Trevor Lawrence heads into the final game of his rookie season averaging a miserable 6.0 YPA and 213.6 passing yards per game with 10 TDs and 17 INTs. He’ll end his lost rookie campaign against the Colts this week, whom he completed 16/35 passes (45.7) against for 162 scoreless yards (4.6 YPA) back in Week 10.
Laquon Treadwell has posted six consecutive games with 4+ catches and 50+ receiving yards after catching all six of his targets (22% share) for 87 yards in a loss to the Patriots in Week 17. Marvin Jones managed just 2/46 receiving last week so he’s finished with fewer than 10 FP in eight of his last 10 games. The Colts are giving up the 14th-fewest FPG (34.5) and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game (141.6) to WRs this season.
It wasn’t pretty but Dare Ogunbowale got home for anyone who plug-and-played him in Week 17. He finished with 9/36 rushing and 2/32/1 receiving on a 65% snap share in a 40-point loss to the Patriots. The Colts are giving up the fifth-fewest FPG (20.3) to RBs this season, but James Robinson was able to catch four passes for 27 yards in this matchup earlier this season.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Colts
Pace (seconds in between plays): 31.9 (30th)
Plays per game: 62.1 (17th)
Pass: 46.5% (31st) | Run: 53.5% (2nd)
Jaguars
Pace: 25.6 (4th)
Plays per game: 58.3 (30th)
Pass: 64.4% (3rd) | Run: 35.6% (30th)
All pace / play data is from the last eight weeks.
Pace Points
The Colts playoff chances are simple – if they win, they are in and they could get up to the 5 seed in the AFC. You know what that means. Jonathan Taylor is 266 yards shy of 2,000 rushing and 2 TDs shy of 20 total rushing TDs. JT went for 30/253/2 against the Jags’ in Week 17 last year. Indy is going to give the ball to Taylor until the game is out of hand.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have only scored nine TDs on their 82 possessions over the last eight weeks and only the Giants (6 TDs on 80 possessions) are worse. On average, the Jaguars have been down on the scoreboard by an average of 12.6 points in this span. Is that bad? That seems bad. They’ve been playing for pride for weeks and just continually get stomped.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
After a strong start to the season when Carson Wentz averaged 19.2 FPG over his first nine games, it was against the Jags in Week 10 when his production fell off a cliff. Over his last seven games, that average fell to 12.8 FPG (33% decline). Nevermind the fact that Indianapolis has won five of those seven games, including victories over the Bills, Patriots, and Cardinals.
Wentz pulled Michael Pittman Jr.’s scoring consistency right down the drain with him. MPJ has only covered his floor twice in the last seven games. Pittman is likely to draw a shadow from Shaquill Griffin this week. But I am more concerned for Pittman’s sake that the Colts will simply feed Jonathan Taylor play-after-play than I do in Griffin shutting Pittman down.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
The Colts need to win this game to make the playoffs. I think I know how they’re going to do it.
After yet another awful performance from QB Carson Wentz last week, my guess is they’ll want to give Jonathan Taylor as many carries as he can handle. And there could be some statistical milestones they want Taylor to hit in this game.
Taylor is 266 yards shy of 2,000 rushing and 2 TDs shy of 20 total rushing TDs. Lest you think that impossible… remember that Taylor went for 30/253/2 against the Jags’ in Week 17 last year. If he has a huge first quarter, they’ll give him the chance.
The Colts do have two players who have talked about retirement together — TY Hilton and Jack Doyle. They’ll continue that dialogue after this season.
T.Y. Hilton on if he thinks about Sunday possibly being his last game:
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) January 6, 2022
"Nah, not at all.”
Hilton (a free agent) continues to say he will talk with Jack Doyle (one more year left on his contract) in bouncing off ideas about playing longer.
I don’t really know who I’d want to play from the Jaguars outside maybe RB Dare Ogunbowale — who got a garbage-time TD last week in a blowout loss to the Pats — or WR Laquon Treadwell, who has made the best of a bad situation and revitalized his career with six straight 50-yard receiving games.
Check out the list of players Treadwell joined with such a streak this year:
