Rough week last week, as I just missed winning props for Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, and Hollywood Brown, who should have hit his yardage total had Lamar thrown him a better ball in the second half for a likely 40-yard TD. Those would have at least brought me to .500, but Week 3 was tough.
But here’s to bouncing back strongly in Week 4….
Last week’s record: 5-8
Season record: 21-17
- Dalvin Cook (Min at Hou) OVER 78.5 rushing yards on DK – The Texans were brutal against the run last week, and Cook was brilliant. Houston has given up 170+ scrimmage yards to RBs in every game. The Vikings have to feed him the ball to have any chance.
- Kenyan Drake (Ari, at Car) OVER 70.5 rushing yards on BETMGM – He’s top-10 at the position with 67.8% snap share and the Panthers defense has allowed by far the most fantasy production to RBs since 2019. On the road, with DeAndre Hopkins banged up, it would make a lot of sense to commit to the run
- D’Andre Swift (Det, vs. NO) OVER 15.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – I got burned on this one last week and just missed it, but that was a game in which his snaps were way down. They went conservative on the road to try to steal a win, and it worked, but I don’t think they will ignore Swift this week against the tough Saint run defense. All we likely need is 2 catches and this one’s in the bag.
- Jarvis Landry (Cle, at Dal) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK – I’ve been feeling this one all week. Dallas is down two corners and gives up the fifth-most points to slot receivers so far. He’s not 100%, but he looks okay, and I’m fully expecting 30-35 attempts by Baker Mayfield (at least). Slot receivers Tyler Lockett and Russell Gage have combined for 15 catches in this matchup the last two weeks. I’m seeing a 6-7 catch game from Landry, so this one looks like a winner.
- Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs. Sea) OVER 45.5 yards on DK – The Seahawks have been fairly stingy against TEs, but not having S Jamaal Adams helps. LB KJ Wright is usually the TE matchup, and he’s still solid, but I’m seeing 40+ attempts from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Gesicki can make big plays and has really flashed this year.
- Zach Ertz (Phi, at SF) OVER 4.5 receptions on BETMGM – I know the 49ers are great against TEs, but Ertz really can’t be stopped when his boy Carson Wentz and the Eagles need him – at least in terms of catching passes. He may average only 4 yards a catch, but that doesn’t matter here: he’s getting 8-10 targets at least, and he’s catching at least 5-6 balls, so this one could be over by halftime.
- Darrell Henderson (LAR, vs. NYG) OVER 83.5 total yards on DK – The Rams have done a great job calling their running plays and putting Henderson in a position to succeed, which explains how he’s getting 5+ yards on 40% of his carries. The Giants are allowing 153.3 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backs so far, so this looks like a good bet, since they should have a lead the whole way.
- Marquise Brown (Bal, vs. Was) OVER 42.5 yards – He’s responsible for three of my losses this year, but he should have had a 40-yard TD in the second half last week and won one of them last week, and that’s in a terrible performance by Lamar Jackson and their offense. They will be better this week, and Brown in Week 1 smoked the Browns’ zone-heavy defense, which is what TFT runs mostly.
- Myles Gaskin (Mia, vs. Sea) – OVER 24.5 receiving yards on DK – The Dolphins love this guy, which is why he’s playing 68% of the snaps through three weeks. The Seahawks allowed 6/24 receiving to Ezekiel Elliott last week and 4/47 to Rex Burkhead in Week 2 and a 5-6 catch game in play if they are playing from behind. Gaskin is the guy who will be out there if they are playing from behind and in hurry-up mode, and he’s looked fantastic in the passing game and has the perfect QB to check it down to him. Tom Brolley and I were all over his receiving yardage prop in Week 2 on SXM and I said he’d get it by the first half, which he did. Tom and I are once again sharing a brain on this one.
- Anthony Miller (Chi, vs. Ind) OVER 25.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – I don’t love Miller this week, but the Colts are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to outside WRs, and with Nick Foles looking for Miller often in the slot, this one looks like a savvy and sneaky play.
Also:
T.J. Hockenson (Det, vs. NO) OVER 42.5 receiving yards on DK
Jarvis Landry (Cle, at Dal) OVER 56.5 receiving yards on DK
Adam Thielen (Min, at Hou) UNDER 72.5 receiving yards on DK
Amari Cooper (Dal, vs. Cle) OVER 5.5 receptions on DK
Greg Ward (Phi, at SF) - OVER 48.5 receiving yards on DK
