My first six picks went 1-5 last week, and my luck was brutal. I still can’t believe Hollywood Brown didn’t go over 48.5 receiving yards on his 6 targets. Those bastards who set the number knew about the job Bradley Roby has done on Tyreek Hill lately. In his writeup, I said I felt the Texan safeties could handle Mark Andrews, and they did, yet Brown was 7 yards shy of winning the prop. I got screwed with the injury to Parris Campbell, and I didn’t know Justin Herbert was starting for the Chargers, so else I wouldn’t have listed the Mike Williams prop.
Otherwise, I was dumb trying out two old RBs (Peterson and Ingram) and also for doing anything with Derrick Henry in the passing game (Henry should have caught a 25-yard TD, for what it’s worth),
I was at least over .500 for the week, so it’s clear to me that I’ll do well as long as I avoid injuries and bad luck. Easier said than done.
Last week’s record: 8-7 Season record: 16-9
D'Andre Swift (Det, at Ari) - OVER 21.5 receiving yards on BETMGM - Swift is in an ugly three-man committee, but his role won’t be decreasing anytime soon, and it’s likely increasing. As it is, he still leads their RBs in snaps and through two games, Swift has 10 targets and Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson have 4. They’re 5.5-point road underdog in a game with a 55.5 total, so this one is too easy.
Marquise Brown (Bal, vs. KC) - OVER 48.5 receiving yards on BETMGM - We’ve got a healthy total at 54, and even though the Ravens defense has been lights out and the Chiefs a little uneven, I do think we’ll see pointage in this one. The Chiefs have issues at corner, especially if Charvarius Ward (hand) is out or limited. Regardless, the Chiefs are playing a lot of zone this year, and Brown ate that zone for lunch Week 1 against the Browns, catching 5 of 6 targets for 101 yards. Lamar will have to sling it 35+ times, and this one’s going over.
Jerry Jeudy (Den, vs. TB) - OVER 3.5 receptions on DK - At also +110, this is a good one. Jeudy (ribs) practiced in full Friday and has looked incredible on film, getting open constantly. I think there will be ample garbage time opportunities for their new #1 WR. The Bucs secondary is good, but they are still young at corner, and they’re giving up 13.5 WR catches a game.
Corey Davis (Ten, at Min) - OVER 49.5 receiving yards on DK - I’m really feeling Davis this week, and I’m going with it. Davis is sitting at a solid 20.4% target share, and the Vikings are giving up the second-most FPG to WRs through two weeks with 53.0. The Vikings are also down their two starting CBs from Week 1, including former #1 pick and top corner Mike Hughes, plus they have only 2 sacks on the season and won’t have stud DE Danielle Hunter and LB Anthony Barr, which helps. The Vikings were playing more man after Week 1, but they are already trending back to playing more zone, which is what Mike Zimmer’s defense usually plays, and Davis is best against Zone.
Joe Mixon (Cin, at Phi) - OVER 17.5 receiving yards on FD - It’s also 17.5 on DK, but the odds are better on FD. This one I’m taking from Greg Cosell’s film study. The Eagles are playing man coverage the third most often so far this year, so Greg thinks they will look to get Mixon the ball in the passing game when they go man, which makes a lot of sense. This one’s going to crush.
Tarik Cohen (Chi, at Atl) - OVER 18.5 receiving yards on DK - If Cohen can’t get this in this game, on the speedy turf in Atlanta, they should release him and eat this new contract. The Bears are not doing a good job getting Cohen the ball, and they know it. This was not the plan, so this is a good week to get him on track. The Falcons are up to their old tricks giving up catches to RBs, giving up 15 RB receptions already this year.
Hayden Hurst (Atl, vs. Chi) - OVER 48.5 receiving yards on DK - The Bears have given up just 1 TD so far to WRs, so it’s a tougher matchup on the outside for their WRs. Obviously, Julio Jones is iffy and won’t likely be 100% if he goes. The Bears are also giving up 6.5 TE per game and the 6th highest catch rate to TEs. Hurst has been running downfield routes, so one big play and 1-2 other catches will win this prop.
Tyler Boyd (Cin, at Phi) - OVER 56.5 receiving yards on DK - AJ Green has a horrible 36% catch rate on the season, but Boyd’s is at 85%, and Burrow to Boyd should be active again this week. I don’t see the Bengals running the ball against the Eagles, and I could absolutely see Cincy playing from way behind again, so Boyd’s likely looking at 10+ targets. Boyd in the slot will see a lot of Nickell Robey-Coleman, and he has been a good matchup for WRs, allowing 100% of his targets to be completed.
Darius Slayton (NYG, vs. SF) - OVER 44.5 receiving yards on DK - San Francisco’s defense is decimated, and they won’t have Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, Nick Bosa, and Dee Ford. They’re still 4.5-point home underdogs, and without Saquon Barkley, the time is now for Daniel Jones to step up and help them win some games. As he looks to do that, he will look for his guy Slayton, who might work some on CB Ahkello Witherspoon, who allowed 5/81/1 receiving to the Jets’ scrub receivers last week. Slayton can get to this number easily on 1-2 catches.
Cooper Kupp (LAR, at Buf) - OVER 54.5 receiving yards on DK - He’s seen only 11 targets to start the year and has now seen six or fewer targets in eight of his last 10 games. It’s also not a lock that he’s shielded from stud corner Tre’Davious White in the slot, but he’s definitely a better bet to avoid White than Robert Woods, who is also playing in the slot but only 46% of the time compared to 59% for Kupp. Jamison Crowder in Week 1 crushed this slot matchup, and Mike Gesicki last week did, too. The Bills may get their two injured LBs this week, but the fact is the Bills are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game covering the slot. Heck, even slot receiver Isaiah Ford for Miami had 9 targets and 7/76 in the slot last week against the Bills.
Also:
Marquise Brown (Bal, vs. KC) - OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
D'Andre Swift (Det, at Ari) - OVER 2.5 receptions on DK
Drew Sample (Cin, at Phi) - OVER 31.5 rec yards
Derek Carr (LV, at NE) - UNDER 244.5 passing yards
David Montgomery (Chi, at Atl) - OVER 69.5 rushing/receiving yards on DK
