Week 1 treated me well, as I had a good week and was 4 yards away from a 10-0 on my picks.
We did hear back from some readers who said my lines had changed before they got to place their bets, so that’s something I’m going to have to monitor. I can tell you that I wait until Saturday before I even look at the props, so I’m not sure what I do to handle the changing lines, since I’m too busy writing Hansen’s Hints on Saturday night and Sunday morning. I guess we’ll just continue to monitor this situation. If a line changes, perhaps simply not play it. When I sent in my article last week, the lines were fresh and only 2-3 hours old on Saturday night.
Here’s what I got for Week 2:
Last week’s record: 8-2
Season record: 8-2
Marquise Brown (Bal, at Hou) - OVER 48.5 receiving yards on DK - Is this a trap? I know Bradley Roby and the Texans contained Tyreek Hill last week, but they did give up the 11th most fantasy points to outside WRs last week, and the 9th most to slot receivers. I think the Texans may handle Mark Andrews with their safeties, but the best thing about this bet is Deshaun Watson can keep the team in the game and force Lamar Jackson to throw all four quarters. The 100+ yards Brown put up last week looked way too easy.
Julian Edelman (NE, vs. Sea) - OVER 4.5 receptions on DK - Here’s yet another one that seems too good to be true. The Seahawks last week gave up the MOST fantasy points to slot WRs, and they gave up an insane 27 catches. It may take a month for Patriot WRs not named Edelman to rack up 27 grabs, which is another way of saying he’s kinda the only game in town for Cam Newton. I had Cam as a prop bet here last week and with fewer than 200 yards passing… and he attempted only 19 passes for 155 yards - yet Edelman still would have won with this prop with 7 targets and 5/57. We’ll see 30+ attempts for Cam this week, especially since the Seahawks #letrusscook last week, so this one’s in the bag.
Parris Campbell (Ind, vs. Min) - OVER 45.5 receiving yards - Given his performance last week, the fact that the Vikings gave up the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers last week, and how there’s a nice total of 48 expected for the Colts home opener, here’s another entry that seems too good to be true. Also, rookie Michael Pittman is banged up and Jack Doyle is out. Philip Rivers clearly loves the slot, and the buzz in Indy is that Campbell may be on the verge of a major breakout. I think his ascension continues in Week 2.
Mike Williams (LAC, vs. KC) - OVER 49.5 yards on DK) - Williams looked great last week, and as expected, he clearly has a chance with Tyrod Taylor, who last week threw the ball to Williams 9 times, mostly down the field (147 air yards, 7th most). Williams did get banged around quite a bit, but he’s reportedly no worse for the wear this week, so I like him a lot in a game that should feature the Chargers playing from behind late; and the 47.5 expected total in this one is encouraging. If Williams didn’t hit this prop, it will likely because he gets hurt/aggravates his preseason shoulder injury.
Derrick Henry (Ten, vs. Jax) - OVER 2.5 receptions on DK - The favorable +140 odds actually scares me, but we reported most of the summer that Henry’s role in the passing game would increase, and last week ran a career-high 22 routes, so it did. AND THE JAGUARS GAVE UP 17 RB RECEPTIONS IN WEEK 1. They will need Henry more than ever with #1 WR A.J. Brown out, and he will not have to worry about Darrynton Evans, who will miss the game. Granted, we have him for only 3.5, but 3 receptions for Henry should be very doable.
Adam Thielen (Min, at Ind) - OVER 4.5 receptions - You have to love Thielen against teams that play a lot of zone, like the Packers, who, per SIS, played the highest percentage of zone in Week 1. Thielen caught 6-of-8 targets last week against those Packers. Granted, Kirk Cousins could always end up throwing it like 11 times in a given game, but with a total of 48 expected, I’m thinking this could be a little bit of a shootout. The Colts, by the way, played the third-most snaps in zone last week, and they allowed an insane 92% catch rate to the freakin Jaguars! The so-so Colts outside corners didn’t get roasted last week, but Thielen’s old teammate Xavier Rhodes did give up a TD, and Thielen’s matchup is very beatable against him and Rock Ya-Sin.
DeSean Jackson (Phi, vs. LAR) - OVER 41.5 yards on DK - The only thing more predictable than Jackson soiling the bed while being incredibly popular last week is him getting it done the week after, when most bail on him. Jackson led the league in air yards last week with over 200, and that was with him playing only 54% of the snaps. While the Eagles may go with a quick-strike passing attack this week, the return of Lane Johnson likely means they will still take some shots to Jackson. The return of Miles Sanders should also really help the offense, and if this offense clicks, Jackson can win this prop on one catch.
Hayden Hurst (Atl, at Dal) - OVER 37.5 receiving yards - I lost the Hurst prop by 1 yard last week, which is insane because Matt Ryan threw it 54 times for 450 yards! Welp, the Cowboys are down a corner this week, yet you’d think they are especially concerned about the three wideouts, each of whom went over 100 yards last week. I’m hoping so because Hurst had just a 9.6% target share in Week 1. However, he also led the league in TE routes with 45, and Dallas will be missing LBs Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee, and they are shaky against TEs with those guys on the field. Hurst did look good running routes last week, so I’m going back to the well in an anticipated shootout. But I (kinda) know if I win this one, it’ll likely be close or won’t happen until late in the game because, well, football.
Mike Gesicki (Mia, vs. Buf) - OVER 34.5 receiving yards on FD - If this pick loses, I won’t pick Gesicki again. I looked good last week giving love to Jamison Crowder against this defense both here and in my DFS column, and Gesicki ran a league-high 78% routes from the slot last week. The Bills have been susceptible to inside receivers dating back to last week, and they will be even more vulnerable this week with LBs Matt Milano (his backup is also out) and Tremaine Edmunds out. CB Tre’Davious White can eliminate one side of the field on the outside, and DeVante Parker is still beat up. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick somehow threw for 282 and 323 yards against them last year, so Gesicki has to come through with 35 yards. Hell, he got 30 on 5 targets last week with a tougher matchup.
Adrian Peterson (Det, at GB) - OVER 43.5 rushing yards - He’s still got it. I am a little worried about their OL injuries (G Joe Dahl is out), but not as worried as the Packers are about NT Kenny Clark being out. Clark is the heart of their defensive front, and right after he left the game last week, the Vikings handed off to Dalvin Cook, and Cook had gains of 12 and 9 yards. Peterson has run for more yards (1,975) and more TDs (16) against Green Bay than he has against any other opponent in his career. While he played 10 fewer snaps than D’Andre Swift, his touch percentage in the backfield was way higher (71% vs. 18%). The Lions may get smoked, which is a concern, but we know that they want to run the ball with power downhill to stay on schedule, and I think Peterson can get this number on only 2-3 possessions against a Packers D that gave up 5.6 YPC to RBs last week.
Also:
Mark Ingram OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (DK) - Poor odds, though, at -13
Calvin Ridley OVER 64.5 receiving yards (DK)
Julian Edelman OVER 58.5 receiving yards (DK)
Diontae Johnson OVER 54.5 receiving yards (FD)
Hunter Henry OVER 44.5 receiving yards (DK)
Note: SIS = Sports Info Solutions
