Solid week last week at 10-5, so I’m hoping to play all the right angles again because it’s been tough this year to stay ahead of these props.
Last week’s record: 10-5
Season record: 89-87
Noah Fant (Den, at KC) OVER 37.5 receiving yards on William Hill – He actually caught a pass last week, which was like catching 5 passes in an ordinary game, since no one else on the team caught a ball. In his first four games this year with Drew Lock, a healthy Fant averaged a solid 55 receiving yards a game. He’s been banged up since then, but he’s off the injury report this week and I fully expect Denver to have to throw it 40+ times. He’s still averaging a solid 12.0 YPR the last four weeks, and KC is giving up a healthy 63 yards a game to TEs.
Anthony Firkser (Ten, vs. Cle) OVER 2.5 receptions yards on DK – I have him hauling in 4 balls against a Browns defense that has been one of the three worst teams against TEs all year. They’re currently giving up just under 6 catches per game to TEs the last four weeks. With an expected total of 53, which is quite high for these two run-heavy teams, it seems like this one could be more of a throw-ball game than most expect. No Jonnu Smith means backup TE Goeff Swaim is their primary blocker, so Firkser should be involved in the passing game. The only negative is slot receiver Adam Humphries is back, but that may actually help Firkser in the middle of the field at times.
Anthony Firkser (Ten, vs. Cle) OVER 25.5 receiving yards on William Hill – He’s at 27.5 on DK, so I have to go with the lower number here, but 27.5 isn’t bad. Everything in the Firkser writeup above applies here.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling (GB, vs. Phi) OVER 25.5 receiving yards on William Hill – I know he didn’t catch a pass last week, but he did play a lot of snaps and we really like his matchup against one of the smaller corners for the Eagles, since Darius Slay will be on Davante Adams quite a bit. He may need only one catch to get this, since we see them attacking Philly with MVS and Allen Lazard (who is also questionable, which may help MVS).
Henry Ruggs (LV, at NYJ) OVER 32.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – He had 3/56 on 5 targets last week, which is actually a good game for him. But he flashed big time, and Nelson Agholor’s ankle injury may slow him, so I like Ruggs today against the young and seriously exploitable Raiders CBs.
Antonio Gibson (Was, at NYJ) OVER 44.5 receiving yards on BETMGM – I know the matchup is tough, but the Steelers are giving up 4.0 YPC to RBs the last four weeks, and they did just lose DE Bud Durpree. Gibson is getting 14 carries a game for 68.5 yards in his last four. He won’t likely get 69+ rushing yards, but we think the WFT’s nasty front may give Ben Roethlisberger some problems, which makes me confident Gibson can get at least 14-15 carries. If so, I think he’ll be slightly over 4.0 YPC, so I see him beating this low number.
Anthony Miller (Chi, vs. Det) OVER 44.5 receiving yards on DK – I think points will be scored in this one, and his QB has dominated the Lions in his career. The Lions are giving up the 4th-most FP to slot receivers this year, and Miller’s actually averaged over 14 FPG in his last three games against the Lions.
Brandin Cooks (Hou, vs. Ind) OVER 4.5 receptions on BETMGM – The same prop is available on DK, but for worse odds. It may not matter, though, since this looks like an easy win unless Cooks gets hurt. Cooks even when Will Fuller was playing had a really good 24% target share, and now Fuller’s gone with his 21% share. The Colts’ secondary has been ripped by lead receivers A.J. Brown (4/98/1) and Davante Adams (7/106/1) in the last two weeks, so you know Deshaun Watson will be throwing 7-8 balls to Cooks, at least.
Jarvis Landry (Cle, vs. Ten) OVER 3.5 receptions on William Hill – The odds are bad (-189), but then again, this prop is a joke. Landry looked as good last week as he’s looked all season, putting up 8/143/1 on 11 targets. He’s had a 25% target share or better in 3 of 4 without OBJ, and WR Hodge is out. Titans allowing 17.2 catches per game to WRs (2nd-most), and third-most FPG from the slot, where Landry still lines up at times. This is a win with 53 points expected, which should mean more passing than most expect.
Jonathan Taylor (Ind, at Hou) OVER 52.5 rushing yards on DK – This has been arguably the best matchup for a RB running with the football all year, and Indy’s offense gets a boost with CB Bradley Roby out. The Texans are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC and a league-high 132.5 rushing yards per game to RBs, so Taylor has to get this number, and easily.
Also:
Brandon Aiyuk (SF, vs. Buf) OVER 51.5 receiving yards on DK
Kenyan Drake (Ari, vs. LAR) OVER 49.5 rushing yards on DK
{Golden Tate|WR|NYG}} (NYG, vs. Ten) OVER 3.5 receptions on William Hill
Jordan Akins (Hou, vs. Ind) OVER 31.5 receiving yards on BETMGM
Corey Davis (Ten, at Cle) OVER 3.5 receptions on William Hill
