Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.
Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.
That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.
That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 4:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins
Projections (DK: 4.22X)
Fitzpatrick is egregiously mispriced as just the 24th-highest-priced QB of the slate on DraftKings. Since Week 12 of last season, he actually leads all QBs in DKFP. And he provides a solid cash-game floor, averaging 26.3 rushing yards per game over this span, which ranks 5th-most and just 2.9 behind Josh Allen. He draws a dream matchup this week, against a Seattle defense that’s giving up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing QBs (30.7), and which may now be without S Jamal Adams and LB Jordyn Brooks in addition to S Lano Hill and CB Quinton Dunbar. Fitzpatrick was hyper-efficient last week (160 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 incompletions) but didn’t need to keep his foot on the gas in a 31-13 blowout. Look for good efficiency again, along with much better volume as Miami plays catch-up with Seattle’s juggernaut offense.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Model (DK: +1149 / FD: +659)
Drake’s usage isn’t quite in line with where we were drafting him just a month ago. He’s averaging 18.0 carries per game, which is great, but he’s not a true bell cow, ceding some passing-down work to Chase Edmonds. (Edmonds out-targets Drake 11 to 5, with Drake running a route on only 48% of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks.) On top of that, his touchdown expectation has taken a hit, with Murray scoring 4 of the team’s 5 rushing touchdowns thus far. All of this being said, he’s the top value on DraftKings this week, as per the DFS SuperModel, and rightfully so.
Drake has handled 82% of the team’s carries out of the backfield, and, as 3.5-point favorites, seems locked into 20-plus touches in a dream matchup against the Panthers. Carolina gave up the most FPG to opposing RBs last year (30.1), and, somehow, they’ve been even worse this year (43.5). Since the start of last season, Carolina ranks dead-last in both YPC allowed (5.27) and rushing FPG allowed to opposing RBs (23.1, 31% more than next-closest).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Model (DK: +986 / FD: +541)
Edwards-Helaire ranks 12th among RBs in salary on DraftKings, but 4th among all players in XFP per game (22.8), averaging 18.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game. A lot can happen in this game, but recent history suggests Bill Belichick sells out to stop the pass, content to let Kansas City try to beat them via the run. If that happens, Kansas City will beat them via the run, and Edwards-Helaire will post a monster game. Damien Williams missed their Week 14 meeting last year, but across their two previous games, Kareem Hunt averaged 37.6 FPG.
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
Model (DK: +774)
Moore is just the 26th-highest-priced WR on DraftKings this week, which seems odd considering we were drafting him as a top-10 WR just a few weeks ago. Moore has no doubt disappointed to start the season, but not nearly enough to warrant this borderline-insulting salary. Robby Anderson ($200 cheaper) has been more productive, averaging 18.0 FPG (10th-most) to Moore’s 12.6 (32nd-most), but volume has actually been better for Moore. He ranks 13th in XFP per game (14.7), while Anderson ranks 28th (12.4). The matchup looks tough on paper, but not prohibitive – a banged up Kenny Golladay posted a 6-57-1 line against them last week (on 7 targets), Terry McLaurin tagged them for a 7-125-1 line the week before (on 10 targets), and the 49ers (their Week 1 opponent) doesn’t really have a WR1. He’s a clear top value this week.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Model (DK: +744 / FD: +881)
Averaging just 7.9 FPG, Cooks doesn’t seem too enticing (5, 8, and 5 targets), but he’s coming off of a brutal stretch in the schedule (KC, BAL, PIT) to draw a top-5 matchup this week. The Texans have one of the highest implied points total of the week (28.5, 9.5 points above their per game average this year), and Minnesota has their two starting perimeter CBs (Cameron Dantzler, Mike Hughes) and one backup (Kris Boyd) on the injury report. Houston may also be without Will Fuller, or he could be at less than 100%, after popping up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring injury (something he’s dealt with for a number of years now). And, he’s just way too cheap, as the 50th-highest-priced WR on DraftKings and the 44th-highest WR on FanDuel.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Model (DK: +540 / FD: +928)
According to the DFS SuperModel, Metcalf is the top value play on FanDuel this week. He’s the 6th-highest-scoring WR on the season, but he ranks just 13th in salary. And as Wes Huber illustrated here, this might be the most lopsided matchup for any WR this week.
Damiere Byrd, WR, New England Patriots
Projections (DK: 3.33X)
At minimum salary on both sites, Byrd is a terrific punt-play who doesn’t really feel like much of a “punt” at all. He’s led the team in routes in back-to-back games, with 6 more than Julian Edelman (who is pretty banged up, or at least, he really looks like it on film) and 11 more than N’Keal Harry. He caught 6 of 9 targets for 72 yards in Week 2, and 3 of 3 targets for 27 yards in Week 3. The Patriots went run-heavy last week against the Raiders (their preference most weeks), but were forced to keep their foot on the gas against Seattle’s more potent offense in Week 2. Expect something similar this week against the Chiefs.
Adam Trautman, TE, New Orleans Saints
Model (DK: +149)
Trautman was just a 3rd Round pick and the 5th TE selected in the 2020 Draft, but the Saints also traded literally all of their remaining picks (a 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round pick) to move up to get him. So it’s clear they liked him quite a bit more than draft capital may imply – GM Mickey Loomis told reporters the team had him as a top-40 player overall in the class, and my prospect model liked him quite a bit as well.
After Jared Cook suffered a game-ending injury in the 3rd Quarter of last week’s game, Trautman ran a route on 16 of the team’s final 17 dropbacks, with fellow TE Josh Hill running only 3 routes. With Cook likely to sit out this week, Trautman could earn a full-time role in his absence. With just 2 targets last week, and 3 targets total on the year, we shouldn’t expect much. But we wouldn’t be playing Trautman for what we expect him to do. Rather, at a minimum price-tag on both sites, he allows us to pay up elsewhere at the other more important positions.
