In this series of articles, our resident tape wizard Greg Cosell will take an in-depth look at some of the more interesting fantasy players for the 2020 NFL season. It’s a peek behind the curtain of the film room, as these are Greg’s raw, unfiltered notes he takes as he watches a player.
There are few players more newsworthy right now than Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Dallas is in a very public though seemingly peaceful stalemate with its signal-caller regarding a new deal. Are the Cowboys reluctant to pay him? If, so, why? Here’s what the tape shows from Prescott’s 2019 season.
Overall Impressions
Prescott features plus arm strength. He can drive the ball with velocity at all levels of the field.
Prescott can make needed firm touch throws, including seams throws and digs over the linebackers.
Overall Prescott is much more of a “thrower” than a natural passer, he shows more effort than smoothness.
Prescott threw digs and sideline outs consistently well. On these routes, he showcased a good sense of timing with clean ball placement, but also showed a tendency to be a beat late at times on those throws.
Prescott is not a naturally aggressive turn-it-loose passer but showed the willingness to make stick throws into tight windows when the game situation demanded.
At times Prescott is not precise with his ball placement on routine throws like shallow crossers. He missed too many routine throws. He’s not “scattershot” in the most extreme sense of the term but is not as precise as many throws demanded.
Prescott has also had completions on which the ball placement was not where it needed to be. The result of this is receivers have to make tough catches, and run-after-catch is minimized.
Occasionally Prescott rushed himself in the pocket, losing a firm base and lower body balance. This can be worked on and cleaned up.
Prescott can be a little stiff-legged and rigid in the pocket, which also negatively impacts accuracy.
My sense was Prescott is more of a predetermination thrower based on route concept/combinations versus certain coverages than a pure anticipation thrower.
Prescott showed a good feel for pressure and avoiding it with pocket movement, also exhibiting the ancillary ability to reset and deliver.
Overall, Prescott navigated the pocket efficiently to make late-in-the-down throws that were also late in the progression.
Prescott has strong second-reaction ability with the movement skills to get out of the pocket and both make throws on the move and run for important yardage.
Prescott is given a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage before the snap of the ball. He is comfortable with checks and audibles.
Prescott plays with poise and composure. Critical game situations are not too big for him.
Week 4: Saints
Prescott stats: 22/33 for 223 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT.
Cowboys started with the quick game out of different personnel and formations. Prescott’s second dropback came out of 13 personnel with a motion to empty.
Prescott showed pocket toughness and the ability to stand and deliver in the face of pressure. Prescott has a strong body and can deliver while being hit.
1x3 sets out of 11 personnel part of OC Kellen Moore’s offense. TE Jason Witten was the boundary X. Blake Jarwin is much more athletic than Witten, so expect to see 11 personnel 1x3 sets in 2020.
Cowboys ran two shot play concepts in the first half, but neither produced an explosive play. Pressure disrupted the first one, coverage took away the second.
Prescott check-audible to Saints zero pressure look was to shift to empty. Saints reacted/adjusted with 2-shell zone match coverage.
CB Marshon Lattimore almost exclusively matched up to WR Amari Cooper in the Saints man coverage concepts.
Saints featured disguised looks out of sub nickel, they consistently showed pressure at times backing off into 2-shell coverage looks.
Saints featured multiple stunt concepts from multiple front alignments. DE Marcus Davenport was at times used as a Joker.
Jarwin 35 yards on 2nd-and-12 in third quarter: seam throw off shotgun power play action out of 11 personnel 3x1 versus cover 2. LB AJ Klein had his eyes in the backfield too late to run the middle hole with Jarwin.
There were snaps in which Prescott was comfortable and balanced in the pocket, and other snaps in which he was not balanced and hurried his delivery without a firm base.
Saints featured double mug fronts out of nickel with LBs Demario Davis and Klein the A-gap LB.
Cowboys WRs struggled to separate and win versus Saints man-to-man coverage, too many man snaps in which Prescott did not have a defined throw.
Prescott showed willingness to make stick throws into tight windows when the situation demanded – a positive trait.
Week 5: Packers
- Prescott stats: 27/44 for 463 yards with 2 TD and 3 INT.
- Prescott’s second dropback: conventional play action out of 12 personnel with twins to the field/closed to the boundary. WR Michael Gallup was the Z in motion part of a cross-country dagger concept. Cooper gained 23 yards on the deep dig.
- CB Jaire Alexander almost exclusively matched up to Cooper in the Packers man coverage concepts. Kevin King matched up to Gallup.
- Cowboys at times used motion with Cooper to get free access into his route. His 46-yard gain on the second possession was a good example, with motion across the formation on an out-and-up to beat Alexander.
- Conventional play action out of both 12 and 11 was part of the Cowboys game plan. In-breaking routes were also featured in the game plan.
- Packers (like the Saints the week before) featured a lot of man coverage, especially in the first quarter – foundational coverage for both teams.
- Cooper’s 24-yard gain on the first play of the second quarter was a great concept off dagger (which you may remember the Cowboys had run successfully on Prescott’s second dropback). It was the same personnel and formation with 12 twins to the field/closed to the boundary. It initially looked like cross-country dagger again, but Cooper broke to the outside. Alexander, in zone coverage, got caught with his eyes and body inside.
- As the game progressed, the Packers played more zone coverage concepts in what would normally be considered man situations (like 3rd-and-4 or less). That caused some problems for Prescott and the pass game.
- Packers (again like the Saints) had success with stunt concepts as part of their defensive game plan.
- Cowboys WRs again had some struggles winning versus man coverage, surprising given their talent level.
- Gallup was predominantly the boundary X on the back side of trips out of 11 personnel.l
- Prescott delivered a big-time throw to WR Randall Cobb for 25 yards on a corner route in the third quarter. The Cowboys ran a three-man route concept out of a tight bunch to the field that attacked both man and zone coverage. The Packers played man (Cover 1 robber/spy). Cobb’s corner route created separation versus CB Chandon Sullivan. It was a firm touch throw by Prescott with precise ball placement.
- What always stands out with Prescott is that he remains poised and composed. Game situations (score, down and distance, field location) never seem too big for him.
- Prescott will be aggressive with turning it loose when the game situation demands it. In these situations, he’s willing to make tough throws.
- Beginning late in the third quarter, the Cowboys started to beat the Packers man coverage, both with excellent throws by Prescott on individual routes (Cooper 27 yards on fade route, Cooper 53-yard TD) and schemed man-coverage beaters (RB Ezekiel Elliott 27 yards on wheel route).
- The Packers played a high percentage of zone coverage concepts in the fourth quarter after featuring man coverage most of the game.
Week 10: Vikings
- Prescott stats: 28/46, 397 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT.
- Cowboys again began with quick game concepts for Prescott. They clearly wanted to get him in rhythm early with completions.
- The conventional play-action pass game was again part of the Cowboys’ approach.
- Prescott worked outside the numbers effectively on isolation routes. He showed a good sense of timing and anticipation with consistently precise ball placement.
- The Vikings were a high-percentage sub-nickel defense, but they played some snaps of dime on third down. They played man coverage and matched dime corner Holton Hill on the TE.
- Cross-country dagger was a staple route concept for Cowboys out of 12 twins to the field/closed to the boundary. Gallup runs the over route and Cooper the dig.
- Prescott can be strong in the pocket, showing the ability to make throws with bodies both around him and on him: Gallup 25 yards on 3rd-and-6 early in the second quarter was a good example. Gallup was the boundary X on the back side of trips. Vikings made a late movement to Cover-4.
- The Cowboys continued to feature 1x3 sets out of 11 personnel with both Witten and Jarwin getting snaps at the boundary X.
- This was yet another game in which the Cowboys WRs. struggled at times to win versus man coverage.
- Prescott showed second-reaction ability getting outside the pocket and making throws off movement. He has good vision on the move: Jarwin 26 yards on 3rd-and-3 in the second quarter and Cooper 18 yards in fourth quarter were good examples.
- Prescott consistently did a good job with pre-snap recognition, making changes and checks when necessary. Overall, Prescott was strong with elimination and isolation.
- The Vikings were another defense that featured multiple stunt concepts versus Cowboys OL and had some success.
- A Cowboys staple out of 11 personnel 3x1 sets was a three-level route concept with slot receiver Cobb running the intermediate out/corner route depending on the coverage. The 20-yard gain he had on 3rd-and-14 early in the fourth quarter was the same concept as Cobb’s 25-yarder versus Packers.
- Cowboys LT Tyron Smith had some bad snaps in pass protection versus DE Everson Griffen’s inside spin move off the initial upfield rush. Griffen then drove back Smith into the pocket with speed-to-power.
Week 12: Patriots
- Prescott stats: 19/33, 212 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT.
- CB Stephon Gilmore was the matchup on Cooper when the Patriots played man coverage. JC Jackson was matched on Gallup, with Jonathan Jones on Cobb.
- Elliott 19-yard reception was a nice wrinkle out of 12 personnel with twins to the field/closed to the boundary. The Cowboys’ tendency out of that personnel and formation had been the cross-country dagger (an explosive play concept off play action). This time, the Cowboys called a screen to Elliott to the field.
- The Patriots had been a high percentage man-to-man defense, but against the Cowboys they gameplanned significant snaps of zone coverage. Their zone concepts were often well-disguised with late movement.
- Prescott was by no means scattershot or consistently inaccurate, but there were throws once in a while in which his ball placement was not as precise as it needed to be. My sense is Prescott needs to become more precisely accurate on shallow crossers and drive routes.
- There were snaps in which Prescott rushed his lower body mechanics and did not deliver with a firm base. That also led to some ball-placement issues on routine throws.
- Prescott showed a tendency to play a little fast in this game. He was a little unsettled at times in the pocket, not seeing things with the clarity he normally did.
- Prescott’s second reaction ability continued to stand out. It is a meaningful part of his game.
- Prescott delivered a big-time throw to Cobb on the Cowboys’ fourth-quarter FG drive. It came on a shot-play concept off conventional play action with mirrored intermediate crossers. Prescott made a firm touch throw with precise ball placement.
- There is a physical and mental toughness to Prescott’s game that is apparent watching tape.
- Defenses continued to treat Cooper as the Cowboys #1 WR. Most teams matched their top corner on him, including Pats (Gilmore).
- Cooper ran a great dig route to beat Gilmore on 4th-and-11 late in the fourth quarter. Prescott made a strong throw from the pocket, but Cooper could not secure the catch.
Week 13: Bills
- Prescott stats: 32/49, 355 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT.
- The Cowboys showed “bang” play action out of shotgun: a power-run action with quick-game inside throws.
- Top CB Tre’Davious White was the matchup on Cooper. Yet again, Cooper was treated as the Cowboys #1 WR.
- Prescott left a throw on the field on 3rd-and-6 on the Cowboys’ second possession. Witten was wide open on the in-breaker with Prescott clean in the pocket, but Prescott did not process it and left the pocket.
- There were again some throws in which Prescott was not as precise with his ball placement as the throw demanded.
- What consistently stood out with Prescott was that he is a strong runner with finishing traits when he pulls it down and runs.
- The Bills play their zone coverage concepts — especially on 3rd-and-long — with as much eye discipline, situational awareness, and route understanding as any defense in the NFL.
- Cooper was the movement receiver in the Cowboys offense. He was predominantly the Z in this game.
- The Cowboys again ran cross-country dagger out of 12 twins to the field/closed to the boundary, this time with Cooper running the deep over route and Gallup running the dig.
- The Bills played more snaps out of zone than man. They featured significant snaps of nickel Cover-2 in long-yardage situations.
- The Bills did an excellent job with their use of selective pressure concepts. They were able to generate pressure on Prescott on critical down-and-distance situations.
- One thing that consistently stood out in this game, as with others, was the Cowboys featured isolation routes versus man coverage and their receivers struggled to separate and win. That was a consistent problem throughout the season.
Week 16: Eagles
- Prescott stats: 25/44, 265 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT.
- Cowboys continued to run isolation/individual routes versus man coverage and their WRs continued to struggle at times to create defined separation.
- Again there were some throws in which Prescott was not as precise with his ball placement as the throw demanded. He’s not a naturally precise or consistent ball-placement passer, although he’s very capable of making occasional outstanding throws.
- The Cowboys are effective with multiple route concepts out of 12 twins to the field/closed to the boundary. Again cross-country dagger was the foundational starting point, but Cowboys featured different routes off that staple.
- Prescott was effective overall throwing outside the numbers on sideline out routes, on which he showed a good sense of timing with consistent ball placement.
- The Eagles did an excellent job with coverage disguise out of sub-dime, often rotating at the snap to 2-shell coverages with significant snaps of Cover 2. The Eagles also featured 2-invert and 3-robber out of sub-dime
- What consistently stood out was Prescott threw a good dig ball with velocity and accuracy.
- Overall this game was an example of Prescott’s less than precise ball placement at times – he had too many poorly placed passes on routine throws.
- In the six games I watched, there were too many snaps in which Cooper struggled to create needed separation versus man coverage.
