Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Denver Broncos (5-8)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Josh Allen - Broncos are down FOUR corners, including AJ Bouye and Bryce Callahan, plus S Jeff Heath, who was starting. I’m rolling with Allen.
Stefon Diggs - See Josh Allen above. Diggs now has 9+ catches and 90+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5, so it’s a full green light in all formats.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
K.J. Hamler - Made two big plays last week with 61% of the snaps, but the Bills rarely give up big plays and give up just 12.0 YPR to WRs, so he’s a so-so reach play.
Jerry Jeudy - He’s talented and he’s still open all the time, but he hasn’t hit 45+ receiving yards in four straight and he’s caught just 35.3% of his targets (6 of 17) in that span, so he can’t be used.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Gabriel Davis - John Brown will not play this week, so Davis has a chance. He has 3 catches and a TD in three straight, so he’s a solid reach if you need him despite his lack of efficiency with his targets last week (he caught 3 of 8). He’s up against backup CB types all day.
Dawson Knox - Tyler Kroft is out, which helps his chances. He played on a season-high 80% of the snaps last week and saw a season-high 7 targets, which got him to 4/32 receiving. The Broncos have given up 3+ catches to a TE in 12-of-13 games this season, so he’s not a bad reach play.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Cole Beasley - He’s been matchup-specific, and it’s not easy to know when it’ll be a “Beasley game” but he has 10+ targets in 3 of his last 4. Curtis Samuel posted 7/68 receiving on nine targets in this matchup last week and the Broncos are down to deep backup types at CB this week.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary - Moss was the hot hand last week, which got him 44 snaps and 13/43 rushing. Singletary had only 8 touches and 34 total yards on 30 snaps. Mike Davis did look good in this matchup last week and he put up 11/51/2 rushing and 5/42 receiving. Denver’s giving up 4.7 YPC to RBs, at least, and you’d have to think the Bills will be working with a lead in the second half, so these guys may total 25+ FP.
Drew Lock - He got hot last week and had arguably his best game with season-highs in completion percentage (77.8%) and YPA (10.4), with 4 TD passes. That doesn’t mean he can repeat that type of performance, since the Panthers defense is very straight-forward, but you do feel better about reaching for Lock after last week. The Bills do have 9 INTs in their last five games vs 9 TDs given up, so it could be an up-and-down performance by Lock.
Melvin Gordon - He’s active and looking better lately with 87 yards a game in his last four games with 2 TDs, and he looks good. Phillip Lindsay is also active and getting work, though, with 13 touches a game. The Bills haven’t allowed an individual back to reach 50+ rushing yards in the last three weeks since their Week 10 bye. Gordon hasn’t been used much in the passing game, but it could happen in this one, and the Bills are giving up nearly 6 catches a game to RBs their last four.
Tim Patrick - He’s been beyond viable for a while now with double-digit FP in eight straight, but he should see some Tre'Davious White on the outside, so he may need to score to come through. Patrick has converted 6-of-11 red-zone targets and 3-of-6 end-zone targets, so he always has a shot.
Noah Fant - He’s active and feeling better, but tough to trust unless desperate. The Bills haven’t allowed a TE to hit 35+ receiving yards the last two weeks with coverage ace Matt Milano back at LB. He’s viable, though, since Lock is throwing to the TEs a lot.
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Mike Davis - Christian McCaffrey is out again, so it’s once again all Davis, who did look good last week. He had his highest yardage total (93) since Week 5 with 2 TDs and 6 targets for the second week in a row (5 catches last week). The Packers continue to be a beatable matchup for RBs with 144 yards total yards per game to RBs with 18 TDs. Davis actually had a 6-catch game against the Packers as a Bear in Week 1 of 2019. He’s hard to pass up with 15-20 touches likely.
Aaron Jones - His snaps were way up last week, at least. He’s due for a big game as the Panthers are giving up a TD per game to RBs with 139 total yards. Jones in this matchup last year turned13 carries into 93 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) and 3 TDs.
Robert Tonyan - He’s got a TD and 13+ FP in 4 straight and this is a great matchup. Backups Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for 8/73/1 receiving against Carolina last week. They are giving up 6.8/77/.8 the last four weeks to the position, good for a whopping 18.9 FP.
Aaron Rodgers - He’s on fire with 3+ TD in 7 of his last 8 and 23+ FP in all eight games. Drew Lock played like a pro-bowler in this matchup last week with elite numbers across the board. This is an easy defense to decipher, so Rodgers should be able to do whatever he wants.
Davante Adams - He has a TD in 8 straight with 12 TDs total. The Panthers don’t have anyone who can slow him down and have given up 6 TDs to WRs in just their last two games.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Allen Lazard - He’s been frustrating for those waiting for him to emerge. It hasn’t happened. It’s certainly a good matchup but he’s really hard to trust.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling - He’s entirely boom or bust, but it’s worth nothing that K.J. Hamler caught two long TD passes in this matchup last week, so MVS has a better chance than usual to make a play.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Teddy Bridgewater - He’s been running more with a rushing TD in 3 of his last 4 and he also put up a strong 30 completions on 40 attempts last week without DJ Moore, who will return. He’s not a great play with a tougher matchup outside in GB (it’s cold, but a low of 30 with light winds isn’t that bad), but he could certainly finish as a top-15 QB if Curtis Samuel is active.
D.J. Moore - He’s set to return this week and while he was limited all week, I’m inclined to use him, at least if I needed some upside. He’s been a little volatile, but he had 4+ catches and 60+ yards in three straight after Week 12 heading into their Week 13 bye. He may see less of top corner Jaire Alexander than top guy Robby Anderson, but there is certainly a chance he’s on Alexander a lot.
Robby Anderson - Put up 8/84 receiving on 12 targets against a bunch of backup CBs for Denver last week. The Packers are limiting WRs to just 11.9 catches per game (7th-fewest), so it’s not the greatest matchup and he could see the most of top corner Jaire Alexander, so he’s no must-play. On the other hand, the Panthers should have to throw a lot, so ultimately he’s a solid WR3.
Curtis Samuel - Tweaked a hammy in practice late in the week, never a good sign. But another solid game last week with 7/68 receiving and 2/22 rushing. He has 5+ catches and 74+ yards in three straight and his QB really trusts him and looks for him. The injury presents more downside, though, and the matchup overall is below average against an improving Packers D. Green Bay is giving up just 34.2 FPG to WRs (7th-fewest).
Seattle Seahawks (9-4) at Washington Football Team (6-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- D.K. Metcalf - He has 5+ catches and 60+ yards in three straight. Brandon Aiyuk posted 10/119 receiving on 16 targets in this matchup last week, and he should have had more.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Logan Thomas - He’s been coming on with 10+ FP in three straight, but that’s been with Alex Smith, who was throwing it to Thomas 6 times a game. Seattle has at least allowed five TDs to the position in their last seven games. Thomas will probably have to score to come through because I can’t even expect 3-4 catches with Haskins in.
Tyler Lockett - He’s hit 12 FP just once in his last seven with just 1 TD in that span. Lockett is a no-brainer start for most, but for those who deliberate each week with Lockett, TFT has been a bottom-5 matchup for slot WRs all year.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- J.D. McKissic - Antonio Gibson is doubtful, so barring a miracle he won’t play. McKissic got 11 carries last week, a good sign. McKissic’s receiving production may take a hit with Haskins in, but they should be playing from behind and Seattle is giving up 6/43 receiving per game to RBs on the season and 4.8/33 the last four weeks, so McKissis can still get to 10 FP this week fairly easily.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Russell Wilson - He may not have to throw much and TFT’s nasty front is a concern, so I’m pulling back from my expectations, especially since they are on the road. But Wilson did get a quick 4 TDs last week in a game he didn’t even need to finish, and I don’t think they have a CB to handle DK, at least. For what it’s worth, my gut feeling is TFT gives them a game, so that could help Wilson’s chances.
Chris Carson - He’s good to go and if this game turns out to be closer than expected, he could play more than he has the last 1-2 weeks. However, Rashad Penny is expected to play and Carlos Hyde is also well in the mix. TFT is giving up only 3.9 YPC and 109 total yards to RBs, so it’s not a great matchup. He has more downside than usual, but he’s still a good bet to 10+ carries and 2-3 grabs at least.
Dwayne Haskins - He will get the start. Haskins completed 7/12 passes for 51 yards off the bench last week. Seattle’s defense has clearly improved, but they’ve aso faced some bad QBs lately, like Sam Darnold, Colt McCoy, and Carson Wentz. Haskins isn’t hopeless due to his big game and he will actually run a lot more than Alex Smith.
Terry McLaurin - He has vanished the last two weeks with just 4/38 receiving total on 6 targets the last two weeks. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a TD to a WR since Week 9 and no receiver has reached 65+ yards since Week 10, but they can traditionally be had by #1 WRs and they don’t have a shutdown corner who travels. He may not catch more than 4-5 balls, but at least his big-play potential improves with the strong-armed Haskins.
Peyton Barber - Only 12/37 rushing last week and might come up small even if he lucks into a short TD run. Seattle’s still solid against the run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Leonard Fournette - He was a healthy scratch last week coming out of their bye, so he’s obviously shaky. But if Jones is out as expected, you have to like Fournette’s chances. They very much do want to run the ball, and veteran LeSean McCoy can’t handle much work in the running game and can pick up most of the receiving work. Fournette could fumble or stink and prompt them to go to the rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn, but I can’t worry too much about a rookie with only a handful of touches all year. Fournette, if he gets volume, can wear them down and guys like Austin Ekeler (15/79 rushing) and Alvin Kamara (15/88/1) have had some success running on the Falcons in the last two weeks.
Tom Brady - Surprisingly came out of the bye flat with fewer than 200 yards passing. He has thrown for multiple TDs in four straight, though, and Falcons are still giving up a league-high 24.3 FPG to QBs and won’t have CB Darqueze Dennard and S Ricardo Allen, which helps against his deep receiving corps.
Calvin Ridley - He’s the only Falcon I’m confident starting this week. He has 5+ catches and 14+ FP in each of his last four. The matchup isn’t great, but you have to use him. He will see 10+ targets for sure.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Hayden Hurst - The Bucs have given up 16+ FP to Irv Smith and Travis Kelce in their last two games, but he has been erased. I’d rather the best WW option available to me than Hurst.
Todd Gurley - He’s at a 37% snap share in his last three games with just 79 total yards the last two weeks. It’s a brutal matchup with the Bucs giving up just 58.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 YPC. Forget it.
Ronald Jones - He’s very unlikely to play coming off the Covid list and he’s also dealing with a broken pinky, so he has major downside even if he’s surprisingly active.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Antonio Brown - Had a decent 5/49 on 5 targets last week, and no CB Dennard could help him. The Falcons also give up the ninth-most FPG to slot receivers, so he’s not a terrible play if you need him. The only problem is there’s only one ball.
Russell Gage - He’s at least been better lately without Julio with 12+ FP in 3 of his last 4. Tampa is allowing 14.5 catches per game (7th-most) to WRs, at least, and I have zero confidence in anyone other than Ridley and Gage as a reach.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Mike Evans - Led them in receiving last week with only 3/56 receiving on 5 targets. He has only 3 catches in each of his last two games and he hasn’t hit 60+ yards in three straight. But given their injuries in the secondary, he’s certainly a guy who can come through majorly.
Chris Godwin - Only 2/25 on 3 targets last week, which is absurd considering how good he is. Godwin had only a 13% target share last week, but he had posted 15+ FP with 6+ catches in his previous three games. I’m hard-pressed to sit him unless I’m loaded at WR.
Rob Gronkowski - Had just one catch on two targets last week, but it did go for a TD and Brady missed him for a potential big play on his other target. Gronk’s been hurt by the AB addition and he has two or fewer catches in 4 of Brown’s first 5 games. At least Hunter Henry (6/41) and Jared Cook (3/28/1) have hit double-digit FP against the Falcons the last two weeks.
Matt Ryan - He’s not usable without Julio Jones, and he won’t have Julio this week. Ryan’s averaging a sad 6.2 YPA with a 55.1% completion rate his last four games with only 4 TDs and 6 INTs. The Bucs have more than enough talent on defense to make his life miserable.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Lamar Jackson - Still struggling, but he will have Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin this week, along with Dez Bryant. He’s also averaging 12.5 carries a game his last six, with 218/3 rushing in just his last two games. The Jaguars have allowed multiple passing TDs in seven straight games and won’t have a starting CB in Sidney Jones. You’re not rostering Lamar to sit him in the playoffs, so start him.
Mark Andrews - Heating up with 5+ catches and 60+ yards with 12+ FP in his last three healthy games and the Jags have given up a TD to the TE in three straight. He’ll see some tough covering from Myles Jack at times, but MA is an elite TE1 this week.
J.K. Dobbins - He’s been the guy and had a solid 37 snaps last week. Dobbins scored for the third straight game last week with 13/53/1 rushing. The Jags are giving up 167/1 rushing per game over the last four weeks, so it’s a good spot.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Gus Edwards - Played only 16 snaps last week but made them count with 7/49/2 rushing, and he looked great. The Jags are giving up 167/1 rushing per game over the last four weeks, so it’s a good spot Gus if you need a reach. I could easily see another 50+ yards and a TD.
Laviska Shenault - He’s a decent long-shot if desperate after he put up 6/49 on 43 routes last week. Jarvis Landry posted 6/52 receiving in this matchup last week, as stud corner Marlon Humphrey isn’t playing in the slot as much lately. Shenault has 10+ FP in his last two games and in 4 of 7 games with Minshew.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Gardner Minshew - Jags pulled the plug on Mike Glennon and Minshew got a TD off the bench on 18 of 31 passing. The Ravens won’t have CB Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters is banged up. They have been shakier on defense, giving up 288.3 passing yards/game over their last four, and Minshew has plenty of guys to throw to, but he’s still a low-end option all the way.
Keelan Cole - He led the Jags last week with 7/67/1 receiving on 53 routes, but I can’t back him. He will come up small if you do. That’s just what he does.
D.J. Chark - He put up only 2/16 on 50 routes and his big-play potential drops with Minshew, who wasn’t looking for Chark much earlier in the season. He did improve in terms of his work with Chark, posting 10+ FP in 4-of-6 games with Minshew. Donovan Peoples-Jones posted 3/74 receiving in this matchup last week, but I still prefer looking at Chark as only a desperation play.
James Robinson - Just 83 total yards last week, but six different RBs have posted 90+ scrimmage yards against the Ravens over their last five games with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for 213/4 scrimmage last week. This is not the same Ravens defense we’re used to seeing out there right now.
Marquise Brown - He’s been cleared to play and has a TD in three straight. It was ugly last week, though, so he’s not a must-start. But the matchup is solid, and A.J. Brown scored on a 37-yard pass last week with Justin Jefferson scoring from 20 yards away in this matchup two weeks ago.
San Francisco 49ers (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Brandon Aiyuk - He’s in all lineups this weekend in all formats and league sizes because he’s averaging 12+ targets/game with a fat 30% target share in his last four, with 3 TDs and 19+ FP in each game. The Cowboys are giving up a league-high 1.7 TDs per game to WRs and have had defensive breakdowns all year.
CeeDee Lamb - The Silence of the Lamb has continued with Lamb failing to hit 10 FP in 4 of his last 7. He had only 2 targets against the Bengals last week, but I didn’t like that matchup for him. He did turn those 2 targets into 2/46, and he has a good matchup on paper here, as the 49ers are hurting at slot corner. Cole Beasley got them for 9/130/1 last week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Ezekiel Elliott - His calf is still an issue, or at least he’s using it as an excuse, as he failed to get it done in a great matchup last week against the Bengals. You can’t buy a TD for him, either, as he has just 1 TD in his last eight games. The 49ers are allowing 3.7 YPC this season, so you can sit his ass down if you have the depth. Otherwise, suck it up and hope for the best.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Jeff Wilson - With Mostert dealing with an ankle injury, I love Wilson’s chances off the bench this week. Wilson has run really, really hard and he gets goal line chances and also some targets. He’s never a lock, but I’m feeling 50+ yards and a TD today.
Kendrick Bourne - He’s the #2 WR and he had 3/42 receiving on a promising seven targets last week. He also has 3+ catches in five straight. Three different Bengals WRs caught 5+ passes last week.
Tony Pollard - Hard to trust but he’s been way more explosive than Zeke Elliott at 4.8 YPC the last four weeks (Zeke is 4.3 but it seems like he’s worse than that). He may get more playing time and approach 15 touches, if desperate.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Raheem Mostert - Dealing with an ankle injury, so there is some risk with Jeff Wilson in the mix (along with others). I’m still inclined to use him, though, since the Cowboys are giving up 5.0 YPC to RBs and the second-most rushing yards per game (132.8). It’s a potential great spot for Mostert if he’s up for it.
Nick Mullens - He’s hit 15 FP just once in his last five games, so he’s almost impossible to use, but he does have Brandon Aiyuk and the Cowboys are giving up 2.1 passing TDs per game (4th-most) this season and 1.8 TD passes a game in their last 4, so he should get 1-2 TDs.
Jordan Reed - He did score last week, but he had only 2/13 receiving on 5 targets and Dallas hasn’t allowed a TE to reach 30+ receiving yards since Week 7, so you better be desperate if you’re using him.
Andy Dalton - He has 2 or more TDs in 3 of his last 4 but he’s living around 200 yards in those games. The 49ers do have some injury problems in their secondary and got rocked by Josh Allen last week for 375/4.
Amari Cooper - He’s been reliable with 14+ FP in every game, and he can be moved away from Richard Sherman if that matchup is tougher for him, so keep plugging him in as WR2.
Michael Gallup - Has only 2 catches and fewer than 30 yards in 2 of his last 4 games with Dalton, but he has shown downfield prowess with Dalton and he went off just two weeks ago. The 49ers have been shaky on the outside and vulnerable to big plays.
Dalton Schultz - He flopped last week in a good matchup and this is a bad matchup even though the 49ers have been hit by TEs the last two weeks with Logan Thomas (6/43 receiving) and Dawson Knox (4/27/1) each having stronger games than expected. Schultz is a poor reach play at this point.
Houston Texans (4-9) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
David Johnson - He’s seemingly in good shape for this one and they will need him with Duke Johnson out. He’s hardly a lock, but he did return two weeks ago for a layoff and he posted 10/44/1 rushing in this matchup. I’d think he’ll get 2-3 catches this week, so he’s a nice flex with probably more upside than downside.
Jonathan Taylor - Just start him. He’s good. He got them for 131 yards and a TD two weeks ago on only 16 touches.
Nyheim Hines - With Taylor handling 56% of the snaps last week, Hines was okay with 36%. Taylor is taking over, but Hines still has 3+ catches in five straight, and he 9/32/1 scrimmage against the Texans in Week 13. He’s always a threat to pop off a longer TD run or regular run against this bad run defense, and Watson on the other side increases the chances that it’s a close game or one they are playing from behind in.
Philip Rivers - Phill has 2 or more TD pases and 17+ FP in four straight, including 285/2 in this matchup in Week 13. The Texans’ just gave up 267/3 passing to freaking Mitch Trubisky last week and still greatly miss top CB Bradley Roby.
T.Y. Hilton - He’s hit 18+ FP in three straight and he’s the WR3 in fantasy the last three weeks with 22.9 FPG. He’s averaging over 19 FPG in 18 career matchups against Houston (playoffs included) after posting 8/110/1 receiving against them in Week 13, so you have to use him.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Keke Coutee - He’s a little shaky but he’s hit double-digit FP in his first two games playing more for Will Fuller, including 8/141/1 in this matchup in Week 13. Coutee has been a Colts killer with 8+ catches and 100+ yards three times in his career against the Texans, the only three times he’s done that.
Chad Hansen - He feels safer than Coutee with an 87% snap share and a 21% target share in the last two weeks as a starter. He’s put up 12/157 the last two weeks, including 5/101 performance on seven targets against Colts in Week 13. He can be used with some confidence if you need him.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Deshaun Watson - I’m a little worried about his lack of production without Will Fuller, but he at least gets Brandin Cooks back this week. Watson did throw for 341 yards and ran for 38 yards and one TD in this matchup two weeks ago, and that was without Fuller.
Brandin Cooks - Put up 5/65 receiving on 8 targets against the Colts two weeks ago and I’d expect something similar, as he’s posted 5+ catches and/or 80+ yards in each of his eight games since Bill O’Brien got fired.
Michael Pittman - He did just miss a TD on a designed red zone screen last week, but he’s now failed to hit 10+ FP in three straight. He’s still getting targeted, though, with 19 in these last three games. He caught all five of his targets for 46 yards in this matchup two weeks ago, so he’s not hopeless.
Colts TEs - Forgot it. Trey Burton did score in the first meeting two weeks ago, but he didn’t have a target last week and Jack Doyle led their TEs. Like I said, forget it.
New England Patriots (6-7) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
None of note.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
- Cam Newton - Is he still a thing? I’ve been proceeding as if he doesn’t exist because you can’t use him. Cam has thrown for fewer than 120 yards in 4 of his last 5 and he could get pulled at any point in a game the rest of the way.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Salvon Ahmed - We may be looking at Ahmed as the best option here, if he’s active and set to play (shoulder). The Patriots did just give up 29/171 to Cam Akers last week, and Ahmed does have a 21-carry game on his resume from Week 10 and also had a 5-catch game in Week 11. If he’s active, he’s a good hail mary play for sure. I want nothing to do with DeAndre Washington, Matt Breida, and Patrick Laird.
Lynn Bowden - The team did sign Isaiah Ford this week and he’s eligible to play, and he manned the slot earlier in the year for Miami, but Bowden should be in line for a bigger role no matter what. He’s put up 11/123 on 13 targets the last two weeks. If Parker and/or Grant is out, Bowden would be almost a lock for 10+ FP.
Sony Michel - Damien Harris has been ruled out and James White isn’t going to carry the ball much, so it’s mostly Michel this week for as long as they can stay with their running game. He has a chance because they don’t have an offense without their running game. Fossil Frank Gore put up 18/74 rushing in this matchup two weeks ago, and Miami has been easier to run on than to throw on all year.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Jakobi Meyers - He’s the only receiver worth considering, and he’s barely worth considering. He put up 4/47 receiving on 5 targets against the tough Rams defense last week, so he might be able to give you a little more this week with a slightly better matchup.
James White - He’s almost hopeless with Cam in there, since Cam is incapable of locating him open in the flat. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 5/59 receiving in this matchup last week, but if you’re considering White at this late stage that’s sad.
Tua Tagovailoa - Big game last week, but his receiving corps is banged up and they’re all basically questionable. Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray were all recently held to under 210 passing yards and 16 FP in three straight games.
DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant - They are both shaky gametime decisions, essentially. If they're active, they’re risky plays with a tougher matchup. Parker and Grant haven’t really been producing with Tua, anyway.
Adam Shaheen - If Mike Gesicki is out with his shoulder, Shaheen has a chance. He had 2/26 receiving on 3 targets last week and he ran 11 routes from the slot. It’s not a great matchup, but he’s a viable longshot if Gesicki is out.
Chicago Bears (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Kirk Cousins - Averaging 42 attempts last 3 games with 7 TDs, and the Bears do have some injuries in the secondary with Buster Skrine out and rookie sensation CB Jaylon Johnson questionable. Cousins posted 292/2 in this matchup last time and he will have to move the ball with the Bears usually doing a good job on Cook, and this game even has some shootout potential.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
Cole Kmet - Rolling with an 81% snap share and a 15% target share since Week 11 with 7 targets the last two weeks, and Jimmy Graham has been limited with a hip injury this week. The Vikings gave up a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski last week and Jaguars Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy combined for 10/86 receiving against the Vikings in Week 13. No LB Eric Kendricks is huge, since he’s one of the best coverage LBs out there.
Irv Smith - Looked great last week putting up 4/63/1 with Kyle Rudolph (foot) out, and he’s out again this week. Smith didn’t run a ton of routes, but he could be busy in this one. The Bears have allowed 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a TE in 12 of their 14 games this season. Irv can also line in the slot, where the Bears will miss CB Skrine.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
David Montgomery - He’s the RB2 in fantasy the last three weeks, and he’s clearly way better with Mitchell Trubisky, averaging 6.6 YPC in his five full games with Trubisky under center. The Vikings are solid against the run, but Ronald Jones posted 18/80/1 rushing in this matchup last week and they will miss LB Eric Kendricks in coverage, which helps Montgomery’s chances in the passing game.
Mitchell Trubisky - Three top-10 QB performances in six starts and even in a so-so game two weeks ago he played well, so he’s been more comfortable and they are using him well. No LB Kendricks improves the matchup for him, and they don’t have a good pass rush.
Allen Robinson - Has 6+ catches in six straight with a big game last week. He had only 6/43 receiving against the Vikings in Week 10 with Foles at QB, but he can do a lot more than that. Vikings CB Dantzler has played well, but ARob can consistently win against this suspect secondary
Dalvin Cook - Toughed it out yet again last week and produced and has been a major workhorse since their Week 7 bye with nearly 30 touches a game. He kicked the crap beaten out of him in this matchup back in Week 10, posting 30/96 rushing and 4/16 receiving. It won’t be any worse than that, I can tell you.
Adam Thielen - Only 3/39 last week with a poor 11% target share. He had 4/43/2 on 7 targets in this matchup in Week 10. If the rookie CB Johnson is out, that would help.
Justin Jefferson - Came up small last week with 4/39 on 8 targets. He put up 8/135 receiving, which seems unlikely the second time around. But again, if CB Johnson is out that would help.
Detroit Lions (5-8) at Tennessee Titans (9-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
T.J. Hockenson - 7+ targets and 4+ catches in four straight and the Titans have been hit by some good TEs this year, like Mark Andrews a few weeks ago.
D’Andre Swift - I think his role will grow from the 53% of the snaps he played last week. The Lions are double-digit road underdogs, so he may have to do it in the passing game. That’s fine, and I can see him hauling in 5-6 balls in this one.
Derrick Henry - We know it’s coming. The Lions are giving 112.2 rushing yards per game (5th-most) and a league-high 23 RB touchdowns. It’s another 150+ and 2 TD game. He may not have Rodger Saffold, though, which could keep him from going nuts.
A.J. Brown - Three straight games with 85+ yards and the Lions just gave up a pair of 20+ FP performances to Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week. It’s a plus matchup.
Corey Davis - He now has 3 or fewer targets in 3 of his last 6, which is a problem. The Lions are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (197.8), but there is some downside or some cap limitations for Davis if they throw it like 25 times.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Matthew Stafford - Looks like he will go, as usual. It’s a decent matchup and Mike Glennon and Gardner Minshew combined for 263/1 last week against the Titans last week, but Stafford’s injury situation makes him a lot riskier.
Marvin Jones - Only 4/48 receiving on 8 targets last week, and Stafford’s lack of health is a concern, but a good matchup by the numbers. He’s worth using if you don’t have an obvious alternative.
Ryan Tannehill - Only 24 attempts last week, and that’s always my concern. They are double-digit favorites, so will he have to throw much? He may if Matthew Stafford is effective, and the matchup is good. He also has multiple TDs in 8 of his last 10, so it’s a tough call. I’d lean toward him having a nice game between 17-20 points.
Jonnu Smith - He hasn’t hit 35 yards in seven straight, so you can’t use him even though the Lions have given up five catches and a TD to Robert Tonyan and Cole Kmet in consecutive games. They use 2-3 TEs weekly here these days.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Kyler Murray - I like him this week against an Eagles defense that gets run on by QBs, and he ran more in Week 14 with 13/47 rushing. He also averaged 7.0 YPA and the Eagles are own top corner Darius Slay and also CB Maddox. He’s looking good.
DeAndre Hopkins - He will not face Darius Slay (concussion) and Avonte Maddox (knee) is also out, so it’s a choice matchup.
Kenyan Drake - He’s been scoring TDs, and the Eagles have been giving them up. He’s also a good bet for volume with the Eagles home favorites and Chase Edmonds a little banged up.
Jalen Hurts - He will run again in this matchup, since the Cards play a lot of zone, and the Cardinal offense is going to excel, so he will have to throw it plenty. I think he’ll do something very similar to last week with a little less running and a little more passing. The Cardinals have allowed 35+ rushing yards or a rushing TD to opposing QBs in 5 of their last 6 but Daniel Jones passed on several running opportunities last week because he wasn’t healthy.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Dan Arnold - He had 4 TDs his last four games and his speed could give the Eagles problems, and they just lost S Rodney McLeod for the rest of the season. They have given up TDs to Jared Cook and Robert Tonyan in consecutive weeks, with 8 TDs allowed to TEs, 7th-most.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Miles Sanders - The Cardinals are solid against the run, but they give up a decent 4.3 YPC with a TD per game to RBs and 4.6 YPC in their last four games.
Jalen Reagor - He led the way with 2/46 receiving on a 68% snap share last week and he’s the only WR to consider. He’s their shot play guy, so you can never rule out a big play, and they will have to throw more this week.
Dallas Goedert - Led Eagles receivers with 4/43 on 6 targets last week with Zach Ertz getting just 2/8 receiving on 3 targets and 21 routes. The Cardinals haven’t been a good matchup this year and they haven't had a TE to hit 50+ receiving yards against them since T.J. Hockenson did it in Week 3.
Christian Kirk - He hasn’t hit double-digit FP in 5 straight, but the Eagles are down majorly at CB and will be playing some backup types. The problem is Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella are in the mix, Kirk at least has a better chance to make a big play this week.
New York Jets (0-13) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Cam Akers - The Jets have been solid against the run, but if the Rams want to get Akers rolling for the playoffs, he can get some reps here. Seahawks Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde combined for 27/142/1 rushing as two-touchdown plus favorites last week, and LA will be in control all four quarters.
Jared Goff - It’s an extremely exploitable matchup, but how much will he throw? I think even for 2-3 quarters Goff can produce decent numbers against a Jets defense that’s allowed 12 passing TD in their last four games, including 206/4 Russell Wilson in three quarters last week
Robert Woods - Had a 32% target share so he’s still the main guy. He had 7+ catches and 80+ yards in each of his games in Weeks 11-13. The Jets are giving up 192.9 receiving yards per game (4th-most) to WRs, so it’s a good matchup.
Cooper Kupp - The Jets are giving up the third-most catches per game (15.2) to WRs; they have been one of the ten worst teams covering slot WRs all year. Tyler Lockett posted 5/52 receiving.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Sam Darnold - No way you can use him in this nasty matchup. The Rams allow a league-low 213.6 passing yards per game to QBs and they just limited another struggling QB, Cam Newton, to just 119 yards with a pick-6
Denzel Mims - He will return this week and he has 40+ receiving yards in each of his six games this season, but this is a nasty matchup.
Breshad Perriman - He has only 4/48 receiving on 11 targets his last two games and now they are limping to the finish, so he can’t be used in this bad matchup.
Jamison Crowder - Banged up but may get the best matchup at times inside against the Rams, but even that’s not a great matchup. Jakobi Meyers had 4/47 receiving in this matchup last week.
Frank Gore - He played last week and put up a robust 31 total yards on 9 touches. The Jets enter this week as 17-point road underdogs and the Rams are giving up just 78.4 rushing yards per game to RBs.
Tyler Higbee - The Jets are giving up a league-high 17.2 FPG to TEs, but he’s nearly impossible to trust with Gerald Everett running almost as many routes as Higbee the last 4-5 weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
Travis Kelce - Insane production continues. He has 8+ catches in six straight games and we don’t think Malcolm Jenkins can handle him when they are in man to man.
Tyreek Hill - He has 11 TDs in his last 7. Calvin Ridley posted 5/108 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. Will they put Marshawn Lattimore on him? I think that’s a good matchup for Tyreek. A better matchup for NO might be Janoris Jenkins, but I doubt they do that.
Drew Brees - Tayson Hill has scored 18+ FP in each of his four starts, but Drew Brees must be worried about his job because he will start. He hasn’t played since Week 10 and had 8 TDs with 0 INTs with 263 passing yards/game in Weeks 7-9. The Saints will have to put up some points this week to keep pace with the Chiefs, so Brees volume should be a positive. But he will have to do it without Michael Thomas.
Emmanuel Sanders - Sanders averaged 5/57/.5 receiving on 6.8 targets a game in six full games with Brees this season, mostly without Michael Thomas, so Sanders looks like a solid play if you need him.
Jared Cook - He’s been scoring at least with Hill at QB with TDs in three straight. He averaged a solid 3/39/.6 with Brees, once again mostly with Thomas out of the lineup. The Chiefs have been so-so against TEs all year, and Mike Gesicki got them for 5/65/2 just last week.
Alvin Kamara - He will be happy Brees is back. Kamara was averaging 7.4 catches a game with Brees, mostly without Thomas. If the Brees have to score a lot to win, there’s a good chance they are playing from behind. Regardless, 6-7 catches are in order for Kamara this week.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
None of note.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
- Tre'Quan Smith - He has 6 targets and 3 catches in his last two games with Hill, a good sign, and he will have to fill in for Micheal Thomas, so he’s a viable reach for sure, as the Saints should have to throw it 35+ times.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Patrick Mahomes - He has 315+ yards in six straight, but the Saints haven’t allowed multiple passing TDs to a QB since Week 8. The Saints do play a lot of man-to-man, which is tough to do vs. KC. If they try to play zone, it’s with noting they were bad in the secondary playing more zone early in the season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - He had 74% of the RB snaps last week and had 5 catches, his highest total since Week 3. The matchup is bad against the top Saints run D, but Miles Sanders found a way to turn it around in this matchup last week with 14/115/2 rushing and 4/21 receiving.
Sammy Watkins - He only has a 13% target share since returning to the lineup three weeks ago, with just 10/125 receiving. He should see a lot of either Lattimore or Jenkins, so it’s a below-average matchup.
Cleveland Browns (9-4) at New York Giants (5-8)
PLAYERS I LIKE MORE THAN USUAL:
- Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - Both guys went over 100 total yards with 2 TDs last week and we could see something similar against the Giants, who won’t have Daniel Jones. Kenyan Drake (90/1 scrimmage) and Chris Carson (110/1) have come through against the Giants in the last two weeks.
PLAYERS I LIKE LESS THAN USUAL:
Austin Hooper - He’s hard to trust with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant in the mix and the Giants gave up just their third TD to a TE last week.
Darius Slayton - He caught only 1 ball with McCoy two weeks ago, so he’s really hard to use.
DEEP SLEEPERS/REACH PLAYS:
None of note.
OTHER PLAYERS OF NOTE:
Baker Mayfield - He has been a lot better and could surprise with a pass-happy approach early, but volume is a big problem this week. I just don’t see him throwing it much. One thing that helps is CB James Bradberry being out, which is likely. Carson Wentz was the last QB to reach 20+ FP against the Giants on TNF in Week 7, so it’s a tougher matchup even if Bradberry is out.
Jarvis Landry - He has 6+ catches in three straight, but he was just so-so last week with 6/52, and we could see something similar this week with the Browns not needing much from the passing game.
Rashard Higgins - He’s emerged as Baker’s top outside guy for sure, and high-end outside receivers like DeAndre Hopkins (9/136 receiving) and D.K. Metcalf (5/80) have gotten it done, and no James Bradberry would help his chances of making a play and/or scoring.
Wayne Gallman - He continues to look good, but hopefully they don’t make Devonta Freeman active and take a look at him because Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis have taken some production the last month plus. Gallman’s been less lucky with the TDs the last three weeks. Gallman has still put up 208 yards on 31 touches in their last two games and the Browns, solid against the run all year, got run on last week by the Ravens.
Colt McCoy - Daniel Jones was rushed back last week and wasn’t ready/confident to run, so McCoy is the likely starter. He completed just 13/22 passes for 105 yards and 1 TD in Week 13. Backup Mike Glennon did put up 235/2 passing in this matchup in Week 12, but the Browns are likely getting top corner Denzel Ward back this week.
Golden Tate - He may be McCoy’s guy, as he led the Giants with 4/30 receiving on 4 targets and in McCoy’s last start. He’s viable if 10 FP (PPR) will make you happy. The Browns have been bad vs. slot WRs all year.
Sterling Shepard - He had a decent 6 targets with McCoy last time but only 1 catch, so he’s hard to feel good about. Overall he’s not an awful option if you need him.
Evan Engram - He had a decent 8 targets and 4/32 with McCoy in Week 13 and the Browns have been a great matchup. But he was added to the injury report late in the week, so he’s a little scary.
