If you’re reading this — by virtue of the fact that you’re visiting a fantasy football site in mid-November — you likely know where your fantasy team stands right now. Maybe you’re a masochist with a 3-7 team that lost Saquon Barkley and never had a chance to recover. You’re wondering what might have been.
More likely, you’re either fighting for a playoff spot or have one pretty much locked up. This column is for you. By this point, you probably have an idea of what your playoff roster will look like come Week 14. That doesn’t mean all your pieces are in place, but a significant part of your structure isn’t going to change. The idea with this piece is to try to squeeze out every piece of value we possibly can from your rosters, and that requires some looking ahead at this point.
Let’s start with a couple of general pointers, before getting into week-specific analysis for the upcoming weeks.
Now is the Time to Handcuff
If you’ve been avoiding handcuffs in favor of stashing some potential “upside” players, now’s the time to take a serious look at your roster and see if there are any dead spots. It’s Week 11 — do you foresee yourself playing LaMical Perine at any point? Alexander Mattison is currently available in 35% of Yahoo leagues… do you have Dalvin Cook and are you playing with fire by allowing Mattison to wallow on the wire?
Tony Pollard is available in nearly 80% of Yahoo leagues. Yes, the Cowboys stink, but Zeke Elliott is dinged up and Pollard could be a huge beneficiary if Dallas decides to sit Elliott down. Boston Scott is available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues and has already had some big games with Miles Sanders injured. Devontae Booker is available in nearly 100% of Yahoo leagues, and Josh Jacobs has been dealing with a knee injury. Booker is coming off a game in which he scored 2 TD in a rotation with Jacobs, and he’s looked excellent this season.
Rostering one of these guys — even if you don’t have the starter, but preferably you do — is a prudent move rather than holding on to someone like Matt Breida in hopes of production that has shown no indication it will be coming.
I’m generally not a huge fan of handcuffing in Week 1. Ten weeks later? That’s a different story. You’re far more likely to lose a league because someone like Sanders goes down and you don’t have the backup than you are to win the league by unearthing a late-season breakout gem.
You Can Carry Two Defenses Now!
Similar to the handcuff point, now is the time you can avoid dropping that team defense that’s been fantastic for you (I’m thinking specifically of the Bucs, who have a Week 13 bye). But if you’ve been streaming defenses all year, you can jump ahead and play matchups now. I absolutely never carry two defenses before playoff time, but it’s not a waste of a roster spot right now if you want to get ahead of the competition to play matchups.
OK, with that out of the way, let’s start by looking ahead to Week 13, which provides a unique challenge this year — it’s a potential playoff week (or, for many, the final week of the regular season in which we’re in must-win mode), and two teams with multiple useful fantasy players are on bye. Those teams are the Bucs and the Panthers — no Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Mike Davis, or anyone else from those teams will be available.
That is huge. Obviously, there are some big-time fantasy assets who are guaranteed to give you a zero in a critical week. So you already have to plan for replacements.
The focus for this article will be on the passing game and streaming defenses — players who are more readily available and are more conducive to streaming than the RBs of the world. Again, most of the readily available RBs who could be useful are handcuffs, and we’ve already covered that.
When I reference “bad matchups,” I am focusing on players who might typically be a starter in your league — there is no need to mention a bad matchup for the Cowboys QB or the Jaguars defense, for instance.
Week 13
Streamable Passing Game Matchups: New Orleans Saints (Jameis Winston) at Atlanta, New York Giants (Daniel Jones) at Seattle, Minnesota Vikings (Kirk Cousins) vs. Jacksonville, Las Vegas Raiders (Derek Carr) vs. New York Jets, Indianapolis (Philip Rivers) at Houston
Bad Passing Game Matchups: Houston (Deshaun Watson) vs. Indianapolis, Detroit (Matthew Stafford) at Chicago, Arizona (Kyler Murray) vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is a week you’ll have to replace Tom Brady, and my preference would be to go after Jameis here. There is no expectation Drew Brees (ribs) will be back by this week, and Jameis has a history of putting up big numbers. That game is a potential shootout. I love Cousins’ matchup as well, but I worry Minnesota could control that game on the ground. If I can’t get Jameis, I’d focus on Danny Dimes.
Of the bad matchups for typical starters, the guy I’m most likely to bench, by far, is Stafford.
Streamable Defenses: Detroit (at Chicago), Green Bay (vs. Philadelphia), Las Vegas (vs. New York Jets), Minnesota (vs. Jacksonville), Seattle (vs. New York Giants), Kansas City (vs. Denver)
Bad Defensive Matchups: Philadelphia (at Green Bay), Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona)
We need to replace the Bucs’ defense this week. Fortunately, there are multiple streamable options to do so. My favorite low-owned option, for obvious reasons, is the Raiders. They’re widely available and get the matchup against the Jets. If I could get my hands on Kansas City, however, that would be the play.
Week 14
Streamable Passing Game Matchups: Cincinnati (Joe Burrow) vs. Dallas, Tennessee (Ryan Tannehill) vs. Jacksonville, Jacksonville (Gardner Minshew? Jake Luton?) at Tennessee, Indianapolis (Philip Rivers) at Las Vegas
Bad Passing Game Matchups: Buffalo (Josh Allen) vs. Pittsburgh, Houston (Deshaun Watson) at Chicago, New England (Cam Newton) at Los Angeles Rams
Everybody is off of bye, which is good news, but two of the top fantasy QBs have brutal matchups with Allen and Watson. I’d be hesitant to bench those guys, but if you have another fringe QB with a mediocre matchup, the play here is to go for Burrow, who gets the Cowboys’ weak defense.
Streamable Defenses: Arizona (at New York Giants), Houston (at Chicago), Kansas City (at Miami), San Francisco (vs. Washington), Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville), Seattle (vs. New York Jets), Carolina (vs. Denver), Cincinnati (vs. Dallas), Philadelphia (vs. New Orleans), Washington (at San Francisco)
Bad Defensive Matchups: Miami (vs. Kansas City), Pittsburgh (at Buffalo)
Fortunately, there are a lot of defenses that could be available this week, because two of the best for fantasy — Miami and Pittsburgh — have bad matchups, with Miami facing the worst matchup. Tampa’s defense is back this week with a solid matchup against Minnesota. New Orleans becomes a much more appealing offense to target when Jameis Winston is throwing the ball.
Week 15
Streamable Passing Game Matchups: Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff) vs. New York Jets, Detroit (Matthew Stafford) at Tennessee, Indianapolis (Philip Rivers) vs. Houston, Las Vegas (Derek Carr) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Washington (Alex Smith) vs. Seattle, San Francisco (Nick Mullens? CJ Beathard?) at Dallas
Bad Passing Game Matchups: Houston (Deshaun Watson) at Indianapolis, New England (Cam Newton) at Miami, Cincinnati (Joe Burrow) vs. Pittsburgh
It’s a brutal week for streaming QBs, so hopefully you’re comfortable with your starter’s matchup. Your one-week Joe Burrow stream takes a dive with a matchup against Pittsburgh.
Streamable Defenses: Arizona (vs. Philadelphia), Buffalo (at Denver), Cleveland (at New York Giants), Kansas City (at New Orleans — if Jameis Winston is still playing), Los Angeles Rams (vs. New York Jets), Minnesota (vs. Chicago), San Francisco (at Dallas)
Bad Defensive Matchups: New Orleans (vs. Kansas City), Philadelphia (at Arizona)
This week isn’t as robust as Week 14, but there are still some gettable defenses here. If Kansas City is available in your league, I suggest picking the Chiefs up now — they have a really attractive run of matchups. By the way, the elite Miami D/ST is back this week — they get the Patriots and Cam Newton the week after facing off with Kansas City.
Week 16
Streamable Passing Game Matchups: Cincinnati (Joe Burrow) at Houston, Cleveland (Baker Mayfield) at New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff) at Seattle, Philadelphia (Carson Wentz) at Dallas
Bad Passing Game Matchups: Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger) vs. Indianapolis, Detroit (Matthew Stafford) vs. Tampa Bay, Buffalo (Josh Allen) at New England, Seattle (Russell Wilson) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The appealing “streamer” QBs this week are all on the higher-rostered side, so you might want to try to get out ahead of it. It stinks that Bill Belichick — Allen’s bugaboo — is on the Week 16 schedule, and hopefully Wilson is playing better football for the Rams rematch than he played in Week 10.
Streamable Defenses: Arizona (vs. San Francisco), Carolina (at Washington), Cleveland (at New York Jets), Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Denver), Philadelphia (at Dallas)
Bad Defensive Matchups: None of note (from usable defenses).
Another solid week for streaming defenses. See below for some observations.
General Observations
Deshaun Watson’s schedule is pretty gross, with Chicago sandwiched between two Indy matchups in Weeks 13-15. But if you survive that run, he gets a pristine draw with Cincinnati in week 16.
Philip Rivers has a great run of three matchups — Houston, Vegas, Houston — in Weeks 13 through 15, but draws Pittsburgh in Week 16.
A QB I’m focusing on adding now: Jameis Winston. Winston draws Atlanta in Week 13, the schizophrenic Eagles defense in Week 14, a potential shootout with Kansas City in Week 15, and the underachieving Vikings in Week 16. Of course, he might not be starting all those games, but it’s worth grabbing him now for upside.
Some of the high-end fantasy defenses have great schedules. Baltimore’s is chief among them — the Week 13-16 run for the Ravens features the Cowboys, Browns, Jaguars, and Giants. Chicago gets Minnesota and Jacksonville in Weeks 15 and 16. Pittsburgh draws Buffalo in Week 14, but closes out against Joe Burrow and the immobile Philip Rivers in Weeks 15 and 16. Miami has the brutal matchup with Kansas City in Week 14, but has Cincy in Week 13, then New England and Vegas in Weeks 15 and 16. This shows why you can definitely roster multiple defenses at this point!
There are some really appealing multi-week D/ST streamers: Arizona gets the Giants, Philly, and San Francisco in Week 14-16. Kansas City has Drew Lock, Tua Tagovailoa, and potentially Jameis Winston in Weeks 13-15. Myles Garrett and the Browns get the Giants and the Jets in back-to-back games in Weeks 15 and 16. San Francisco has Washington and Dallas in Weeks 14 and 15.
