Several seasons ago, I introduced a metric for finding big-play potential among DLs and LBs called Backfield Impact (BI). Backfield Impact measures an IDP’s ability to get into his opponent’s backfield and be disruptive by factoring in sacks, QB hits, QB hurries, and tackles for loss (TFL). Essentially, anytime a defender causes trouble by beating their opponent and getting into the opposition’s kitchen. The important addition to this metric is the inclusion of TFL. Defenders should also get credit for a sack-worthy rep even if the offense runs the ball.
Through BI and BI/S (Backfield Impact per Snap) we’ve been able to uncover some top-tier big-play threats heading into each season. We’ve also been able to predict regression for some players who might have gotten extremely lucky the year prior.
Let’s see if we can’t uncover some big-play opportunities for 2020. We’ll dive in with a review of the top 20 in sacks in 2019 for linebackers*:
*Since most leagues still divide EDGE defenders into DL and LB, we will continue to divide them here so that these lists can be useful for the majority of IDP leagues.
Sacks
| Name | Sacks |
| Shaquil Barrett | 19.5 |
| Chandler Jones | 19 |
| T.J. Watt | 14.5 |
| Za’Darius Smith | 13.5 |
| Preston Smith | 12 |
| Bud Dupree | 11.5 |
| Dante Fowler, Jr. | 11.5 |
| Markus Golden | 10 |
| Matthew Judon | 9.5 |
| Mario Addison | 9.5 |
| Harold Landry III | 9 |
| Khalil Mack | 8.5 |
| Bruce Irvin | 8.5 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 8.5 |
| Von Miller | 8 |
| Vic Beasley, Jr. | 8 |
| Clay Matthews | 8 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 8 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 7.5 |
| Brian Burns | 7.5 |
Takeaways:
About half of the top-10 OLBs made it to or over the double-digit sack threshold.
Notice how many teammates are on this list. The bookend OLBs for the Packers, Rams, Panthers, Buccaneers, and Steelers make up 50% of the top-20. This shows us one of the reasons we preach how having a stud OLB on one side often helps the other OLB. That creates hidden value in that second (and oft-overlooked) OLB.
Now let’s pan out and take in the bigger picture of a pass rusher’s productivity.
Backfield Impact (BI)
Backfield Impact combines the most important trackable statistics that indicate that a defender is getting into the backfield: Sacks, QB hits, QB hurries, and TFL.
Let’s take a look at the top-10 in BI in 2019 for LBs:
| Name | BI (Backfield Impact) |
| Za'Darius Smith | 123.5 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 104.5 |
| T.J. Watt | 104 |
| Chandler Jones | 94.5 |
| Von Miller | 88 |
| Dante Fowler Jr. | 84 |
| Khalil Mack | 83 |
| Markus Golden | 81.5 |
| Matthew Judon | 81 |
| Harold Landry III | 79.5 |
Takeaways:
It looks like Von Miller was a little unlucky when it comes to sacks. He had a bit of a down year overall, but per his BI, he should have produced around 10 sacks.
Just as we saw with the DLs, the top sack producers predictably produced the highest BI.
Preston Smith (74.5 BI) and Bud Dupree (70 BI) may have benefitted from some luck to produce the 5th and 6th-most OLB sacks. That “luck” may have come in the form of playing across from Za’Darius Smith and T.J. Watt. That’s the kind of repeatable luck we can use.
To find hidden value - or to avoid chasing past production - we also want to view this production on a per-snap basis. As younger players see their roles increase and or players rebound from injury, Backfield Impact per Snap allows us to view IDPs on equal footing.
Backfield Impact per Snap (BI/S)
To find out who made the most of their opportunity, let’s take a look at the top 10 in BI/S for LBs with at least 500 snaps in 2019:
| Name | BI/S |
| Za’Darius Smith | 7.9 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 8.5 |
| T.J. Watt | 9.0 |
| Von Miller | 9.5 |
| Matthew Judon | 10.3 |
| Dante Fowler, Jr. | 10.5 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 10.7 |
| Khalil Mack | 11.1 |
| Markus Golden | 11.2 |
| Chandler Jones | 11.3 |
Takeaways:
That’s triple confirmation that Za’Darius Smith, T.J. Watt, and Shaquil Barrett are indeed elite pass-rushers who didn’t just get lucky.
Von Miller again is ranked higher than his sack totals indicate. He played 883 snaps, missing one game last season. It’s not a huge difference, but the main takeaway here is that Miller’s depressed production is partly due to luck, instead of slowing as he reaches 30.
Harold Landry III (14.7) and Whitney Mercilus (15.1) largely produced on volume. Both players saw over 1,000 snaps. That’s a plus in terms of usage and consistency, but it also indicates that their big-play production may be near their ceiling.
Vic Beasley, Jr. (15.7) might have gotten insanely lucky to produce 9 sacks. A 15-16 BI/S rate usually produces around 4-6 sacks. We may see regression from Beasley. Playing on 757 snaps in 2019, the question becomes how often Beasley sees the field on his new team in Tennessee.
Honorable Mention
Each year, I like to point out some players who put up a strong BI/S score, but flew under the radar for various reasons.
- Deep sleeper here, but second-year player Jacob Martin (9.6) was highly efficient on just 269 snaps for Houston. If Brennan Scarlett struggles, or he or Whitney Mercilus gets injured, Martin could provide high-upside production if he can produce on that level with more snaps.
- We’ve mentioned before that Jadeveon Clowney hasn’t been a double-digit sack threat for much of his career, but his 4 sacks last seasons were unlucky. His 10.5 BI/S on 712 snaps should have produced 6-7 sacks. If he does get a full season with a team, expect a bounceback in big plays from the current free agent.
For a look at how BI/S impacts DLs, check out the IDP Metrics: Backfield Impact - DLs article.
