Paul Kelly's Week 16 Props

Player Props Record: 68-41 (62%) Last Week: 2-2 (50%)

Week 15 presented some unique challenges with all of the Covid adjustments and uncertainty, and we lost one of our props by half a catch, so I don’t feel too badly about a .500 week. This week is slightly better in terms of the uncertainty and as always there are money-making opportunities on the board

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 16 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Dak Prescott vs. WAS

Dak has thrown for fewer than 240 yards in four of his last five games and with Dallas as 9.5-point favorites he may not need to wing it all that much this week. Washington is a good matchup by the numbers but that was the case two weeks ago too when Dak managed to throw for just 211 yards..

Alvin Kamara vs. MIA

The Saints are playing with a 4th-string QB this week and have little choice but to force feed the rock to Kamara in the run game. The Dolphins will certainly be keying on him but they do allow 4.3 YPC to backs so it's a decent enough matchup for Kamara to come through with volume.

Robby Anderson vs. TB

The Panthers have questions at QB and Anderson has been awful more often than not this season for fantasy but I'm going to trust the huge discrepancy here and the game script with the Panthers as 10.5-point underdogs. D.J. Moore is a little gimpy this week with a hamstring issue which could mean more volume heading Anderson's way. All we need is 30 yards to cash in on this prop.

Ja’Marr Chase vs. BAL

Chase torched the Ravens earlier this year 8/201/1 and the Bengals should have no trouble throwing this week against the Ravens weak secondary. Let's just hope the Ravens can keep it close this week with a third-stringer at QB. The +100 being offered by Caesars is inviting.

Kyle Pitts vs. DET

Pitts has topped this number in three straight games and the Lions have given up 11+ FP to an individual TE in five straight games so we're looking good here.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 16. Happy Wagering!