Paul Kelly's Week 13 Props

Player Props Record: 58-35 (62%) Last Week: 4-1 (80%)

We’ve turned in two back-to-back weeks with 80% winners or better. The only prop we lost last week was Davante Adams under 7.5 catches and we only lost that by half a catch. The player projections here on the site are the best in the biz and we continue to beat the books more often than not so let’s keep it going in Week 13!

Here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a couple of years ago I started comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props being offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props and I’ve been betting accordingly – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds of course.

Here’s a look at the player prop discrepancies I like most for Week 13 followed by a list of all of the significant discrepancies for the week.

Jimmy Garoppolo @ SEA

Jimmy G. has gone under this number in six of his last seven games this season as well as in three straight against the Seahawks. This is the largest pass completion discrepancy on the board this week and I don’t see much reason to shy away from playing it considering the history and with the Niners favored in the game and looking to run the ball.

Miles Sanders @ NYJ

Sanders almost beat this number last week on just 9 carries. This week Jordan Howard is out again and Boston Scott hasn’t practiced at all. The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites and should pound the rock in this one especially with QB Jalen Hurts hurting and the passing game's poor showing last week. The Jets have been the premier matchup for RBs all season long, allowing a league-high 35.8 FPG to the position and this is the biggest rushing yards discrepancy on the board this week.

Jonathan Taylor @ HOU

I’m not gonna overthink this one. Indy is favored by 10 so they should be running the ball plenty and Taylor went for 14/145 on the ground in this matchup earlier this season. Elite player with a big discrepancy means I’m betting with confidence. Taylor’s total yards prop is in play as well (see below).

Devonta Freeman @ PIT

Freeman now has double-digit carries in four straight games including back-to-back 16-carry games the last two weeks. Baltimore is favored by 4.5 points against a reeling Steelers team so the ground game should be in play for all four quarters and Latavius Murray hasn't done much since returning to the lineup to warrant more work. This number looks too low.

Kendrick Bourne @ BUF

Bourne is the proud owner of the largest receiving yards discrepancy on the board this week. This is another number that just looks too low as Bourne has topped 34 yards in 7 straight games. The Bills are stingy against WRs but we don’t need much to win this bet and as 3-point road dogs the Pats may have to throw a little more than usual.

Darnell Mooney vs. ARI

Mooney has been a production hog at WR the last couple of weeks with 120+ receiving yards in two straight games. Allen Robinson is likely out again this week so the opportunities should be there once again for Mooney. The Bears are 7.5-point home dogs and should have to throw to try to keep up with the Cardinals. The only potential fly in the ointment here is that the gametime forecast calls for windy and rainy conditions. Depending on how bad it looks shortly before kickoff I may back off of this one.

Antonio Gibson @ LV

Gibson is rolling and he’s topped this number in two straight. No J.D. McKissic this week should help him earn a couple of extra looks in the passing game and the Raiders are giving up 140.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.

Here’s the full list of statistically significant player prop discrepancies for Week 13. Happy Wagering!