Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread, player prop, and total bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Starting Monday mornings, be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
GAME PICKS
Best Bets ATS Record: 4-7 (36.3%, -3.38 units); W2: 2-4
Overall ATS Record: 18-13-1 (58.1%); W3: 1-0
Totals Record: 1-1 (50%, -.09 units); W2: —
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+7.5, DRAFTKINGS) AT BUFFALO BILLS
This line is a bit inflated and I’d make it more in the 6 to 6.5 point range so I’ll take a little bit of value with the key number and the hook. Josh Allen hasn’t been firing on all cylinders like he was in 2020, and his accuracy issues have started to creep back in. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke has been way better than advertised dating back to last season, and the markets haven’t caught up and they’re still treating him as a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rain (45% chance) and wind (15-20 mph) could also be a factor in this game, which would be a small advantage to Washington with a slightly stronger running game. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/24)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (OVER 55.5, FANDUEL)
I waited a little too long on this line but I’m jumping on the over now before it gets to 56 on Sunday. The Buccaneers have played over the total in both games this season and in five of their last seven (postseason included). Tampa’s defense has been a complete pass-funnel this season (and at the end of last season) with Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan combining for 104 passes in the first two weeks. HC Sean McVay didn’t care to run the ball in this matchup last season with Jared Goff attempting 51 passes. The Rams come into this week with their top RB Darrell Henderson (ribs) banged up anyway, and Ronald Jones has been an utter disaster on the other side. The Rams won 27-24 on the road last season in a game totaled at 47.5 points, and the Rams and Buccaneers defenses aren’t firing on all cylinders through the first two weeks of the season. Tampa’s offense has been a well-oiled machine in the red zone so far with Tom Brady completing 14/19 passses for seven touchdowns inside the 20-yard line to open the year. Matthew Stafford has also been highly efficient with five TDs on 56 attempts (8.9% rate) while averaging 10.7 YPA. This is a high total but I’m expecting some fireworks in this one. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/23)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+4.5, FANDUEL) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
This is more of a bet against my Steelers than a bet on the Bengals after they played without four of their top defenders in Week 2. The biggest loss was star OLB T.J. Watt going down with a groin injury, which completely crushed their pass rush. The Steelers are dealing with an epidemic of groin injuries with MLB Devin Bush and CB Joe Haden both sitting out with the same injuries after being added to the injury report late last week. They had a sneaky big loss with NT Tyson Alualu going down with a fractured ankle early in Week 2. Top WR Diontae Johnson also needed assistance to get off the field with a knee injury on the final play of the game, but he acts hurt if you look at him funny so it might not be anything. Watt’s injury is by far the biggest and I could see the Steelers going off as short as three-point favorites if he can’t play. I don’t see this line rising if the Steelers would somehow have Watt, Bush, and Haden all available this weekend so I’m taking the +4.5 now with the Bengals, especially with late money backing the Bengals and fading the Steelers in the first two weeks. Risk one unit at -106 to win .94 units. (Posted 9/20)
TENNESSEE TITANS (-4.5, FANDUEL) VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Carson Wentz’s status for Week 3 is very much up in the air after he suffered a potential high-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter of Week 2. He’s either going to try to play (and likely play poorly) through the injury or they’ll have to turn to Jacob Eason if he can’t play, who looked way in over his head when he came into the game against the Rams. The road teams actually dominated this series last season with a pair 17+ point victories, including a 45-26 Titans beat down of the Colts in their final matchup at the end of November. The Titans got Derrick Henry rolling late against the Seahawks and they should have plenty of chances to give him the ball going up against a Colts’ offense that should struggle to move the ball consistently, even against their bad defense. I could see this line moving into the six-to-seven point range later in the week if Eason is indeed forced to start so I’m laying the points now. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/20)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+7, FANDUEL) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs continued their absolutely dreadful play against the spread in Week 2 when they blew an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead in their road loss to the Ravens. They’ve dropped their first two contests ATS in 2021 and they now sport an 2-11 ATS mark in their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been recent ATS darlings with five straight covers and outright victories before they dropped a 17-14 decision to the Cowboys in Week 2. Justin Herbert took Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to overtime in his first career start in Week 2 last season. I’m taking the key number of +7 on Monday morning as I’m fully expecting this line to close more in the six-point range. Risk one unit at -118 to win .85 units. (Posted 9/20)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+4, DRAFTKINGS) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
I’m betting on the Packers rebounding against the Lions on Monday Night Football, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line shift closer to a field goal. The 49ers may not have a healthy running back at their disposal this week with JaMycal Hasty (ankle), Trey Sermon (concussion), and Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) each picking up injuries. These teams have played in three contests decided by 17+ points over the last two seasons, including the Packers wiping out an undermanned 49ers squad 34-17 last season. This isn’t the easiest spot for the Packers after playing on Monday Night Football, but I’m going to take any chance to side with the Packers any time they’re getting more than a field goal. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units. (Posted 9/20)
PLAYER PROPS
Player Props Record: 22-18 (55%, +3.2 units); W3: 0-2 (-2 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night
Ian Thomas (Car) over 6.5 receiving yards (-120, DraftKings) (L)
- Not sexy…Over 6.5 yards in first two games, four targets and 25 routes run in first two games. Texans have given up the second-most catches and receiving yards to TEs.
Christian McCaffrey (Car) over 82.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings) (L)
- Eight-point favorites and 20+ carries in two positive gamescripts to open 2021. Chubb 95/1 rushing on 11 carries last week in this matchup.
Sunday
Baker Mayfield (Cle) under 245.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Tough spot with no Landry and OBJ likely limited, expecting both sides to lean on their run games in this one.
Darnell Mooney (Chi) over 38.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Leads the Bears in every major receiving category. Fields is a downfield thrower and Browns have struggled with speed in early going.
Derrick Henry (Ten) over 98.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Favorites against an opposing offense that is unlikely to get up big, ​​46/281/3 rushing against them in two games last season.
Najee Harris (Pit) under 67.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Just 83 yards through two games, Bengals have given up exactly 20/61 rushing to both Montgomery and Dalvin
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) over 63.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Pair of 40+ yard TDs in consecutive games, Higgins looking doubtful should filter more targets to Chase
Adam Humphries (Was) over 3.5 receptions (+130, DraftKings)
- Pass-heavy script, potential shorter aDOT game with 15-20 mph winds, slot WRs have 4+ catches in first two games against Bills
Terry McLaurin (Was) under 74.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- No WR has reached 55+ yards against Bills, Tre White coverage, potential shorter aDOT game with 15-20 mph winds
Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 5.5 receptions (+120, Caesars)
- Shepard has 6+ catches in 10-of-14 games since the start of 2020, 7+ catches and 75+ yards with three total TDs in his last four games.
D’Andre Swift (Det) over 29.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
- 40+ yards in both games, Ravens have given up 6.0/56.0 receiving per game to RBs.
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 58.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- 69+ yards in four straight games, Lions have been torched by #1 WRs — Davante Adams (121 yards) and Deebo Samuel (189).
Jacoby Brissett (Mia) under 18.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Under 18.5 yards in 9-of-16 games as a starter in 2019, ran for 8 yards in near full game last week
Corey Davis (NYJ) over 44.4 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Wonky game last week but Broncos have given up 55+ yards to four different WRs already
Tom Brady (TB) over 2.5 passing TDs (+128, FanDuel)
- 3+ TDs in eight of last 13 games, Brady’s arm is top goal-line option with no trust in RBs
Monday Night
Dak Prescott (Dal) under 293.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings)
- Eagles have yet to allow 200+ yards, Eagles’ D invites running and Dallas obliged last week against Chargers, Cooper banged up
DRAFTKINGS PRO FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE PICK’EM
This weekly contest from DraftKings requires users to pick five games against the spread for each of the first 17 weeks of the season. Every user gets to throw out their worst week and the person with the most correct picks throughout the season wins a top prize of $1,000,000 — the top 135 finishers win prizes.
Full disclosure: I split my entry with a fellow degenerate so these are five picks we agreed upon for the contest. Look for my picks to be posted mid-Sunday morning.
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 6-4
Week 3
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Green Bay Packer (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
