I know many of you have been itching for some legit betting opportunities…unless you’re a true degenerate and you’ve been gambling on Russian table tennis or Belarusian soccer (if you’ve come up with a winning system please DM me!).
The sports betting community finally has a legit event to wager on with the NFL Draft going virtual for the first time on April 23-25. Unfortunately, I’m being left out in the cold living in Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow gambling on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. Hopefully, you live in one of the many states with legalized sports betting that are offering lines on the draft this weekend.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using off-shore lines for the purposes of this article, which are close to the odds featured at U.S. regulated sportsbooks. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re likely to see more volatility between books than you’ll see on game lines during the season.
Quarterbacks
JOE BURROW, LSU
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): first overall (Bengals), QB1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): first overall (Bengals), QB1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): first overall (Bengals), QB1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Burrow is a strong prospect with all the traits, with the exception of high-level arm strength. He plays with poise, composure, and calmness that reminded me of Tom Brady. Burrow consistently exhibited the needed traits: poise, vision, clarity, timing, pocket efficiency, precise ball placement, and second-reaction ability. Burrow is a high-level prospect with a chance to be an outstanding NFL QB.
Draft Props to Consider
The time to bet on Burrow to be the first overall pick has long since passed. Many sportsbooks have even taken “first overall draft pick” options down. If you can somehow find Burrow in the -1000 to -5000 range to be the first overall pick then I’d consider wagering on it since it seems to be a virtual lock he’ll be the first player selected. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Burrow has been meeting with the Bengals for the maximum three hours/week leading up to the draft.
TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): fifth overall (Dolphins), QB2
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): sixth overall (Chargers), QB3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): sixth overall (Chargers), QB3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
For Tagovailoa to reach his ceiling, he would stylistically need to play like a Drew Brees: an efficient, precise pocket passer playing with high-level timing, rhythm, and accuracy. He is not a Russell Wilson kind of player — Tagovailoa's traits and skill set best profile as a pocket QB playing in a well-schemed system.
Draft Props to Consider
Tua draft position over 4.5 (-300, betonline.ag) — Tua was considered the top overall prospect in this year’s class heading into the 2019 season. Joe Burrow passed him on the field last season, and now there’s a legitimate chance he slips in the draft during Day One because of long-term durability concerns about his hip and wrist. The Dolphins do have a little more room to take a gamble with 14 picks at their disposal so they could still take him fifth overall, but they no longer have the sense of urgency to move up and draft before they’re officially on the clock.
JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): ninth overall (Jaguars), QB4
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): fifth overall (Dolphins), QB2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): fifth overall (Dolphins), QB2
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Herbert has many desirable traits: size, arm strength, and excellent mobility, but there are questions and concerns about his lack of timing, anticipation, and consistent ball placement. There were times watching Herbert's senior tape that he reminded me of Josh Allen: big, physical, powerful arm, excellent mobility, with the ability to make outstanding throws both from the pocket and outside the pocket, but very erratic and inconsistent accuracy.
Draft Props to Consider
Herbert drafted before Tua (-135, bovada.lv) — I would’ve suggested betting Herbert at +300 to be the second QB drafted if our website would’ve launched last week. Those odds are now long gone with Herbert picking up some late steam and Tua losing some momentum because of his health concerns. I prefer taking Herbert in a head-to-head wager with Tua instead of wagering on him to be the second QB drafted at similar odds just in case some team pulls a stunner and moves up to draft Utah State Jordan Love, which leads me to the next quarterback…
JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): sixth (Chargers), QB3
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): 30th overall (Packers), QB4
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 34th overall (Colts), QB4
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Love’s size/arm strength/movement profile clearly suggests first-round talent, but his inconsistent lower body mechanics and lack of consistent ball placement are concerns as he transitions to the NFL. Love has a lot of traits to work with, including a good sense of timing in the quick game and a willingness to turn it loose and make tough throws.
Draft Props to Consider
Love third QB drafted (+600, betonline.ag) — Love is certainly a polarizing prospect with some mock drafts projecting him as a top-10 pick and others forecasting him as a second-round selection. I still lean toward a Joe Burrow/Justin Herbert/Tua Tagovailoa start to the draft at quarterback, but there’s also a real chance Tua slips in the draft a bit because of his medical concerns. Love is getting pretty juicy odds at +600 to be the third quarterback selected, making it worth a small wager just in case Tua does fall in the draft.
JALEN HURTS, OKLAHOMA
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): N/A (two-round mock)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): N/A (one-round mock)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 80th overall (Raiders), QB7
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Hurts is not a natural passer and his tendency to lengthen his delivery and slow down his arm speed when pressured is a definite concern as you transition him to the NFL. His second-reaction ability and his designed run game dimensions are strong positives. Will some see Hurts with his flashes of solid pocket play as a Dak Prescott kind of QB with development over time?
Draft Props to Consider
Hurts selected in the third round (+165, betonline.ag) — I don’t have a great feel for when Hurts will be selected, but I know there’s going to be a lot of interest in his landing spot. I see him as a limited quarterback entering the league (I don’t see him at the same level as Dak Prescott), but all it takes is one team to like him and have a plan for how they’re going to use him. I see him as a career backup who could be schemed a few plays per game like the Saints are currently doing with Taysom Hill. Hurts is expected to land in the second round (-125), but I see more value in picking him to go in the third round.
Tight Ends
COLE KMET, NOTRE DAME
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 44th overall (Colts), TE1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): N/A (one-round mock)
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 66th overall (Redskins), TE1
Draft Props to Consider
Kmet draft position over 45.5 (-135, bovada.lv) — As one NFL personnel director put it to The Athletic’s Bob McGinn, this year’s tight end class is “the shits.” Kmet, yet another top Notre Dame TE prospect, has been the consensus top option at the position but that hasn’t made him a lock to even go in the first two rounds. The Colts, at 44th overall, are one pressure point for over bettors. Indianapolis has other pressing needs, including at WR, and rookies rarely come in and make a difference early, which is important to note since the Colts are gunning for the Super Bowl this year with Philip Rivers signed to a one-year deal.
ADAM TRAUTMAN, DAYTON
Latest Mock Drafts
- Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): N/A (two-round mock)
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): N/A (one-round mock)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 75th overall (Colts), TE2
Draft Props to Consider
Trautman to be the first TE drafted (+350, bovada.lv) — Kmet is the heavy favorite (-275) to be the first TE selected, but he isn’t a no-doubt top option in a weak class like his current price suggests. It’s worth taking a look at some long-shot options at the position, starting with Trautman at +350. He checks all the boxes with his size and athleticism, but he’s behind Kmet right now because he played at a small school after coming to Dayton as a quarterback. Trautman might have the most potential in the class, and it all it will take his one team to buy into him before Kmet is off the board. Missouri’s Albert Okwuegbunam (+600) and FAU’s Harrison Bryant (+1000) are two of our favorite TE prospects in this year’s class. They may be worth potential small wagers too since I don’t see Kmet as the slam-dunk first TE off the board.
Offensive Line
TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): eighth overall (Cardinals), OT1
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): fourth overall (Giants), OT1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): fourth overall (Giants), OT1
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Wirfs is an efficient and economical RT who is more than functionally athletic and extremely workmanlike and consistent in his execution. Athletic measurables were outstanding at the Combine, but in pass protection, he played less with fluid athletic movement and more with coiled efficiency defined by excellent balance, body control, poise, and composure. Is Wirfs best suited to transition as a RT or an OG (like former Iowa OT Brandon Scherff)?
Draft Props to Consider
Wirfs to the Giants (+275, betonline.ag) and Wirfs draft position under 8.5 (-190, bovada.lv) — It looked like a two-horse race between Wirfs and LB/S Isaiah Simmons to be the first pick by the Giants just last week. However, Daniel Jeremiah said he’s heard some “whispers” about the Giants having interest in tackle Jedrick Wills, and he shot up to the betting favorite. At least we can still get Wirfs at a pretty juicy plus price with the Giants seemingly deciding between Wirfs, Wills, and Simmons. GM Dave Gettleman is calling the shots, and he’s been the one leading the charge to select an offensive lineman. The Giants have major needs at tackle and LB/S, but Gettleman appears to be leaning more toward protecting his two franchise players in QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley. The Giants are in a spot to trade down a couple picks and still get Wirfs or Wills, but the sense of urgency for teams to trade up seems to be waning with Tua Tagovailoa’s medical concerns growing leading up to the draft. Wirfs was the favorite tackle to be selected by the Giants for the last couple weeks, and I’m hoping the recent Wills talk is just another smokescreen being thrown up by the Giants like they did with Justin Herbert. I’ll take the bet that Wirfs is still the guy they’ve wanted all along at an enticing plus price. I also still like his draft position under 8.5 with the Cardinals also potentially looking to take a tackle.
JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 10th overall (Browns), OT2
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): eighth overall (Cardinals), OT2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 11th overall (Jets), OT3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Wills has outstanding agility, body control, and balance for a 312-pound OT, and his overall athletic and movement traits are as good as you will see in a RT prospect. He has the look and feel of a Week One starter, and his skill set, traits, and competitiveness present as a 10-year starter with All-Pro written all over him.
Draft Props to Consider
Wills draft position under 8.5 (-200, betonline.ag) — Wills is suddenly the betting favorite to be the Giants first selection at -110 — the Giants pick fourth overall. I’d also be stunned if the Cardinals selected a wide receiver after they stole DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans this off-season. Arizona will then likely address its offensive and defensive line needs with the eighth overall. The Panthers could fill a major need by taking one of the Cardinals’ options right in front of them by selecting DT Derrick Brown. If the Giants end up going with Tristan Wirfs, the Cardinals could also go with Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton at tackle, but Wills could be the safer pick. Wills has the potential to be an impact RT from Day One for a team that suddenly has playoff aspirations in 2020.
MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE
Latest Mock Drafts
Todd McShay, ESPN (March 30): 14th overall (Bucs), OT3
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (April 13): ninth overall (Jaguars), OT3
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 7): 10th overall (Browns), OT3
Greg Cosell’s Draft Guide Analysis (exclusive to FantasyPoints.com)
Becton brings a rare combination of size, mass, power, and higher-level athleticism and flexibility with a chance to develop into an outstanding pass blocker. He has some technique, balance, and body-control issues that must be cleaned up, but they often resulted from aggression and competitiveness and can be coached and channeled.
Draft Props to Consider
Becton draft position over 8.5 (-380, bovada.lv) — The value of this prop has completely evaporated since last week with Jedrick Wills becoming up momentum over the weekend. Becton dropped some jaws at the Combine when he ran a 5.1-second 40-time at 6’7” and 364 pounds. He may have the most potential in this year’s offensive tackle class, and he’s certainly risen up draftboards since his performance in Indianapolis. Tristan Wirfs and Wills are still seen as the safer picks at the position, and all three of the mock drafts I’ve listed above have Becton going outside the top-eight picks. It wouldn’t surprise me if a team like the Cardinals bets on Becton’s upside, but I like the odds of him falling outside the top eight.
