Wild Card Game Hub: SF-DAL

San Francisco 49ers (10-7, 9-8 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 13-4), 4:30 p.m., Sunday

Brolley’s 49ers Stats and Trends

• San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the league with a 7-2 outright and ATS record in their last nine games, and they’re coming off a 27-24 overtime victory over the Rams as 3.5-point road underdogs.

• San Francisco is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.

• The 49ers tied the Buccaneers for the best yards per play (6.1) just ahead of the Cowboys (6.0).

• Jimmy Garoppolo made it through the season finale playing through his throwing thumb injury, and he led a furious comeback starting with 38 seconds left in the second quarter. He completed 18 of his final 25 passes for 277 yards (11.1 YPA), one TD, and one INT in the final 39 minutes against the Rams. Jimmy G finished the year averaging a league-best 12.7 yards per completion, but he finished with fewer than 16 FP in his last three starts. The Cowboys are giving up the 11th-fewest FPG (17.7) to QBs this season.

• Deebo Samuel has been the NFL’s biggest X-factor this season, and he’s been completely overlooked for Offensive Player of the Year honors (+5000 odds). He set a WR NFL record with eight rushing touchdowns, and he led the league with 18.2 YPR. He finished with 4/95 receiving and 8/45/1 rushing against the Rams last week, which gives him 17+ FP in four straight games. The Cowboys are giving up a generous 14.3 YPR to WRs this season.

• Brandon Aiyuk has strung together three straight games with 13+ FP. He’s also reached 12+ FP in six of his last eight games after posting 6/107 receiving against the Rams last week. The Cowboys are giving up the 14th-most FPG (35.3) to WRs this season.

• Jauan Jennings is coming off a career-best game with 6/94/2 receiving on seven targets against the Rams. He saw his second-highest snap share (63%) of the season last week with the 49ers using more three-WR sets in catch-up mode.

• George Kittle has completely vanished from this passing attack with just 8/60 receiving on 12 targets over the last three games. He previously had 6+ catches, 90+ yards, and 15+ FP in three consecutive games in Weeks 13-15. The Cowboys have given up 11+ FP to three straight TEs (Tyree Jackson, Zach Ertz, John Bates).

• Elijah Mitchell managed just 21/85 rushing for 8.5 FP last week, which ended his three-game run with 17+ FP. Mitchell has handled 21+ carries in five straight games, but he’s failed to catch a pass in five of his 11 games. Keep an eye on the status of LT Trent Williams (elbow) this week after he was unable to play in the season finale. The Cowboys are giving up a healthy 4.4 YPC but just the third-fewest FPG (20.1) to RBS this season.

Brolley’s Cowboys Stats and Trends

• The Cowboys finished with the second-best point differential at +172, behind only the Bills, and they set a franchise record with 530 points this season.

• Dallas is sporting a 5-1 outright and ATS record in their last six games, but they’ve done it by beating up on the Eagles’ backups, Saints, Giants, and Washington twice. They dropped a 25-22 decision to the Cardinals as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 17, which was their one playoff-caliber opponent in that span.

• Dallas’ strong finishing kick helped them to finish with an NFL-best 13-4 ATS record.

• The Cowboys are 8-3 toward unders in their last 11 games.

• Dak Prescott used a late-season surge with 12 TD passes in his last three games to set a franchise record with 37 TD passes this season. He posted 24+ FP in each of those contests after falling below 13 FP in three consecutive contests in Week 13-15. Matthew Stafford threw two INTs in this matchup last week on his way to 238/3 passing for 19.5 FP.

• CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy production fell in six consecutive games (19.2>14.6>11.0>10.4>8.1>6.5) to end the season. He saw just two targets for 2/45 receiving last week playing against Eagles’ backups last week, and he’s scored in just one of his last 10 games. He ran just 7% of his routes from the slot with Michael Gallup (ACL) out and Cedrick Wilson in the lineup. The 49ers are giving up the 10th-most FPG (35.7) to WRs this season.

• Amari Cooper has shown some life in the final five weeks of the season with Lamb fading down the stretch. He failed to extend his touchdown streak to three games last week, but he managed 5/79 receiving on seven targets. Coop has seen 7+ targets in four of his last five games. The 49ers are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (161.5) to WRs.

• Dak got on the same page with Cedrick Wilson heading into the playoffs. The fourth-year WR finished with a career-high 119 receiving yards and two TDs filling in for Gallup, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 17. He kicked Lamb to the perimeter and he ran 96% of his routes from the slot.

• Dalton Schultz is running hot with 11+ FP in four straight games after scoring two touchdowns against the Eagles on his way to 3/21/2 receiving. On the downside, he saw just three targets after hitting 8+ targets in three straight games and he played a season-low 60% of the snaps with Blake Jarwin returning to the lineup with a 19% share. The 49ers had been the league’s best defense against TEs for much of the season, but they’ve allowed 55+ yards in three of their last five games, including Tyler Higbee posting 6/55/2 receiving last week.

• The Cowboys fed Ezekiel Elliott 18 carries against Eagles’ backups to get him to 87 yards for his fourth 1000-yard rushing season in six years. He managed a combined 20/72 scrimmage in Weeks 16-17. Zeke has just one catch in four of his last five games after posting 3+ catches in six straight games in Weeks 6-12. Tony Pollard got the season finale off with his foot issue. He’s been at 10 or fewer touches in six of his last nine games, and he’s scored just twice in 15 games. The 49ers suffocated Sony Michel last week, holding him to 2.0 YPC (21/43 rushing), and they’re limiting RBs to just 3.6 YPC.

Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies

49ers

Pace (seconds in between plays): 30.6 (30th)

Plays per game: 64.1 (25th)

Pass: 54.5% (29th) | Run: 45.5% (4th)

Cowboys

Pace: 25.5 (1st)

Plays per game: 71.5 (2nd)

Pass: 61.5% (16th) | Run: 38.5% (17th)

Pace Points

After a terrible start, the 49ers are rolling as winners of seven of their last 9 with their lone two losses coming on the road (to Seattle and Tennessee) in one-score games. Their formula of playing slow (30th in pace) and running a ton (1st in run rate over expectation) is what got them in this position and I see no reason for them to get away from it against the Cowboys. While Dallas has played strong pass defense all year long largely thanks to Micah Parsons taking over games and Trevon Diggs making plays, the Cowboys run defense is suspect (23rd in YPC allowed; 16th in Run Defense DVOA). HC Kyle Shanahan will have no problem dialing up a run-heavy plan here.

The Cowboys, however, find themselves in the opposite spot offensively. The 49ers arguably have the best run defense out of all of the playoff teams and closed out the year second-best in YPC allowed (3.67) and second-best in FootballOutsiders’ Run Defense DVOA metrics. OC Kellen Moore is one of the best coaches in the league at adjusting based on their opponents strengths / weaknesses and this certainly projects to be a pass-heavy plan for Dak Prescott.

Huber’s Key Matchup Notes

It begs the question, where would the current portrait of Jimmy G sit without Deebo Samuel? In addition to leading all players in YPC and YPR, Samuel has generated 6.44 FPG on play action (second-most). The Cowboys have authorized the 10th-most receptions and 11th-highest rate of deep completions when defending play action. It’s always possible that Dan Quinn sticks Trevon Diggs over Samuel. However, the alignment numbers inform us that Anthony Brown will draw the brunt of the task and Diggs hasn’t been utilized much as a devoted shadow. Considering that the majority of Diggs’ allowances have come on deep, splash receptions, attaching him to Samuel might be a worst case scenario.

Among 79 qualified outside CBs, Brown is coming off of 0.29 FP/CS (18th-most), 1.32 YPCS (21st-most), 0.15 AY/CS (14th-most), and an 84.0 TPR (29th-lowest) as the fifth-most targeted corner. From my scouting, only Tyreek Hill surpasses Samuel in the difficulty level they present due to the pre-snap motion. Even if an opponent attempted to shadow Samuel, his frequent movement all across the offensive formation is impossible to track on some plays – check out his routes across from Jalen Ramsey last week for some evidence. And the last thing a DC wants to see is his top cover corner consistently ending up between the tackles when Samuel aligns as a RB.

When Emmanuel Moseley returned from IR in Week 18, he took to the right sideline in order to allow ‘21 third-rounder Ambry Thomas to remain on the left side where he’s done all of his work this season. It certainly paid immediate dividends when Thomas collected the walk-off interception against the Rams to send the ‘9ers to the playoffs. Keeping Thomas on the left also sent the youngster down a path that will lead him to Amari Cooper. While I attempted to convince myself that Thomas has done enough with his 198 coverage snaps to earn hard ranks, the ultimate decision was made not to do so since he falls around 40 snaps short of qualifying.

While the SF faithful are extremely thankful to Thomas for that INT, if his metrics did qualify, his 0.39 FP/CS, 1.70 YPCS, 0.29 AY/CS, and 133.5 TPR would each rank dead last among 79 qualified CBs.

Dolan’s Vantage Points

After their furious comeback against the Rams in Week 18 to secure a playoff spot, I doubt there are any teams in the playoffs who want to see the 49ers across from them. And in fact, the Niners — plagued by injuries as much as any NFL team over the last three years — are getting healthier.

The big question for San Francisco’s offense is LT Trent Williams, who has an elbow injury but returned to practice this week and looks likely to be available for this weekend. With even forgotten man RB Trey Sermon activated off IR, it’s as healthy as San Francisco’s offense has been since Week 1 (Sermon likely won’t contribute given Elijah Mitchell is expected to play this week.)

Really, if you want to know as much about this game as possible, I would suggest reading this piece from The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia and Ted Nguyen, discussing how the Niners and Cowboys each will struggle to defend the other’s strengths.

On the Niners’ side of the ball, they like to generate explosive plays with the run game — often with WR Deebo Samuel. Lo and behold, the Cowboys had a mediocre run defense all year long, and with 14 runs of 20 or more yards surrendered, they were tied for 3rd-most in the NFL. If the Niners win, expect Mitchell and Samuel to be a big part of that. If the Niners can’t get the run game going, then Jimmy Garoppolo will be forced to throw against the Cowboys’ man-heavy concepts… which he struggles against. But in all, I like this matchup for the Niners’ offense.

Last week, the 49ers’ front seven absolutely took over in the final three quarters of their win over the Rams, sacking Matthew Stafford five times, tying for a season-high on Stafford. The Niners also limited Ram RBs Sony Michel and Cam Akers to 46 yards on 25 carries, though I expect the Cowboys duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard (who practiced in full with his bothersome foot injury) to have more success.

But as the boys from The Athletic point out, the Cowboys have been a very different offense since Dak Prescott got hurt.

And 49er DC DeMeco Ryans has been using a ton of post-snap movement to disguise problems with the 49ers’ CB depth, which is still an issue — their best CB Emmanuel Moseley has played well in a return from a high ankle injury, while rookie Ambry Thomas has certainly been baptized with fire this year. And Prescott has struggled most this year with teams that do a good job disguising coverages.

But there is no doubt in my mind the Cowboys will try to create explosive plays in the passing game, especially targeting Thomas, whether it’s Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb on him.