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Thursday Night Football
We’re getting down to the nitty gritty on Thursday Night Football this week with the loser of this Steelers-Vikings showdown just about done in their respective playoff race. It came out Thursday morning that Dalvin Cook is going to try to play through his dislocated shoulder, which he suffered just 10 days after the injury in Week 12, so I’m grabbing Alexander Mattison (Min) under 101.5 rushing and receiving yards (95 pts). I’m expecting Mattison to still get plenty of run in this matchup against the Steelers and Cook could aggravate the injury at any time, but he’d need a healthy workload to go over this high total. I’m taking a layup with my second prop and going with K.J. Osborn (Min) over 2.5 receptions (100 pts). Osborn was elevated into the #2 WR role behind Justin Jefferson last week with Adam Thielen leaving early with a high-ankle sprain. Osborn stepped up and played 92% of the snaps and he posted 4/47/1 receiving on seven targets (17% share). The Steelers are still without top CB Joe Haden and they’re giving up 12.9 YPR to WRs this season. Enjoy TNF and good luck! — Tom Brolley
Adding to Tom’s picks, a selection I feel is a smash this week for Thrive is Diontae Johnson above 5.5 total catches (75 pts). Johnson has had four weeks in a row above this mark, ranging from 7-9 catches during these games. Since the BYE in Week 7, Johnson has also seen massive targets including an 11 target game, three 13 target games and a 14 target game. On the year the Steeler’s WR1 has had receiving upside evident by his four games of 9 catches. I am confident tonight Diontae Johnson grabs at least six balls.
Nick Skrip
Sunday Football
We’re on the cusp of the fantasy football playoffs and owners everywhere are going to be fielding some ugly lineups with all of the injury and COVID situations across the league. The Saints will actually get their best offensive player back this week after a four-week layoff, and I’m taking Alvin Kamara (NO) over 70.5 rushing yards. He couldn’t ask for a more friendly first game back from injury against a Jets’ defense that’s giving up the third-most rushing yards per game (117.6). Kamara is also going to see a relatively big workload with both Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery out this week. I’m looking at Joe Mixon (Cin) under 76.5 rushing yards for my second prop on Sunday. I’m a little skeptical that Mixon will see his normal workload this week after he missed practice all week for an illness. I’m expecting to see Samaje Perine mixed in a little more, and the 49ers are giving up just 83.3 rushing yards per game to RBs this season. I’m looking at Tom Brady (TB) under 306.5 passing yards for my final prop for Sunday’s action. The Patriots and Colts have shown the formula for how to attack the Bills’ defense in recent weeks with their running games. The Bills have yet to allow 275+ passing yards in a game this season and they’re facing the third-fewest pass attempts per game (30.9). Enjoy today’s action and good luck, as always! — Tom Brolley
Monday Night Football
We wrap up this week with a pivotal game in the battle for the NFC West division title between the Rams and the division-leading Cardinals. I’m looking at Matthew Stafford (LAR) under 285.5 passing yards (105 points) for my first prop on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals have given up 286+ yards just once in 12 games, and Stafford needed major garbage time to get to 280 yards in their first meeting. The Rams also went with bigger personnel with Sony Michel in the starting lineup last week, which will once again be the case this weekend — I’d consider using Michel overs on his rushing props too. I’m taking Zach Ertz (Ari) under 5.5 receptions (80 pts) for my final prop of Week 14. This line is incredibly inflated if you consider Ertz is averaging just 3.0 catches and 4.3 targets per game in his first four games with Kyler Murray at quarterback. Good luck! — Tom Brolley
