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Divisional Round
The Wild Card Round landed with a thud last week with four of the six games ending in blowout fashion. The Divisional Round games look much more promising with three of the four contests lined around a field goal or less with the one exception being the 49ers traveling to Green Bay. I’m grabbing Aaron Jones (GB) over 67.5 rushing and receiving yards (105 pts) in that contest. Jones posted 70+ scrimmage yards and 13+ touches in each of his last three games, and he saw a season-high 19 carries in this matchup back in Week 3, finishing with 19/82/1 rushing and 2/14 receiving. I’m taking Joe Mixon (Cin) under 80.5 rushing yards (90 pts) in the first action of Divisional Round Weekend. Mixon has fallen under 65 rushing yards in six straight contests since RT Riley Reiff injured his ankle, and he’s averaging just 3.3 YPC in those contests. The Titans also allowed 3.8 YPC and the second-fewest rushing yards per game (63.9) to RBs this season.
Let’s kick off Sunday’s action by taking the free square Thrive has given us with Sony Michel (LAR) under 70.5 rushing yards (90 pts). It took only two games for Cam Akers to take back his top spot in this backfield after he led the Los Angeles’ backfield with a 53% snap share against the Cardinals. Michel left the Wild Card Round with 13/58 rushing on a seven-week low 40% snap share, and the Buccaneers allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (63.7) to RBs in the regular season. I’m going to fade another RB in the Divisional Round finale, taking Darrel Williams (KC) under 62.5 rushing and receiving yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is trending toward returning to the lineup this week and Jerick McKinnon jumped ahead of an ineffective Williams last week. Williams simply might not have many opportunities to make an impact against an already stingy Bills’ defense. Good luck this weekend and hopefully we get some better action! — Tom Brolley
